Jeff Benton picks 1 and 2
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->15 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. DePaul)
5 Dime: KANSAS (minus the points vs. UMass)
UCLA
DePaul simply cannot score. Check that: DePaul simply cannot score against quality teams. Sure, the Blue Demons have put up 70-plus against the likes of Albany, Illinois-Chicago, Detroit, Indiana State and Morgan State. But against their two best opponents – road losses at Cal and Northwestern – they scored 67 points and 36 points (that’s right, 36 points!), and made just 41 of 119 shots in those two defeats. That’s 34.5 percent, and that number is only slightly worse than DePaul’s overall field-goal percentage of 37.8. And when they step behind the arc, the Blue Demons miss nearly three of every four shots (28 percent).
Today, DePaul, which actually lost to Morgan State 79-75 this week at home, has to travel out to Southern California to face a Top 15 opponent that stresses defense over everything else. Granted, the Bruins don’t have the kind of stoppers (yet!) that they’ve had the last three years when they went to the Final Four, but they’re still giving up just 60 points per game on 44 percent shooting, with no team scoring more than 68 points (and that was Texas).
Meanwhile, unlike DePaul, the Bruins can put the ball in the hole. They’re making 50 percent of their shots and scoring 73.3 ppg. Also, UCLA has outrebounded five of its seven opponents and has an average of eight more rebounds per game, while DePaul has been out-boarded in three straight games (all losses), and it has fewer rebounds per game than its opponents.
DePaul is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this year (the losses at Northwestern and Cal) and is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a short. Although this game is being played in Anaheim, make no mistake it’s essentially a home game for the Bruins, whose five wins this season have been by margins of 24, 5, 17, 35 and 18 points. Lay the chalk with UCLA, which is 3-1 ATS in its last four.
Kansas
It’s difficult to tell exactly how good the defending champs are, considering they’ve played just two decent opponents, beating one (73-54 over Washington as a six-point favorite) and losing to the other (89-81 to Syracuse in overtime when the Jayhawks blew an 11-point halftime lead). Other than that, Kansas has faced a bunch of cupcakes. But here’s the deal: The team they’re facing today in Kansas City absolutely fits in the cupcake category. UMass is 2-6 SU and 1-5 ATS, with the victories coming against something called Arkansas-Monticello in their opener and Holy Cross in their most recent game Wednesday.
In between, the Minutemen suffered six straight losses. Three were at least “quality” losses (Southern Illinois, Memphis and Boston College), but the other three (Jacksonville State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Toledo) were inexcusable, even though two of those were one-point setbacks.
UMass’s problems are two-fold: an inconsistent offense (the Minutemen have scored 67 or less three times) and virtually no defense (they’ve allowed 80 or more in five of their six losses). Well, today, UMass goes up against a Kansas squad that averages 83.5 ppg on 48.2 percent shooting, scoring at least 81 points in five straight games. And only once this season (the second half vs. Syracuse) did the Jayhawks’ defense not show up.
Kansas has cashed in five of its last six games overall, six of its last eight at home (and this is virtually a home game even if it’s not being played in Allen Fieldhouse) and 20 of its last 28 in non-conference play, while UMass is 1-6 ATS in its last seven non-conference outings and 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. Don’t sweat this big number.