Service Plays Saturday 12/05/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF WRITE-UP

Week 14

Saturday's games

Home team won last five South Florida-UConn games, with Bulls losing last two visits here, 15-10/22-15; USF lost last two road games 31-0 at Rutgers, 41-14 at Pitt, so have to question their will, especially on a cold December day. UConn is 9-1 vs spread this season, 3-1 when favored; they scored 45-33-56 points in their last three games. Big East home faves are 6-8 vs spread. Five of last seven USF games went over total.

West Virginia won its last 12 games vs Rutgers, winning last six here by average score of 32-14; they won rivalry game 19-16 on last play against Pitt last week. Mountaineers are 1-3 on road this year, winning 34-13 at Syracuse, losing by 11-11-3 points. Rutgers won five of last six games, is just 2-2 at home vs I-A foes this year, losing to Cincinnati/Pitt. Five of last seven West Virginia games, six of last seven Rutgers games stayed under the total.

Noon kickoff in chilly Champaign tough duty for California kids; Fresno State won six of last seven games, is 3-3 on road this year, 2-1 as a road dog- this is their third trip east of Mississippi this season. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total. Illinois is just 3-8, 0-3 vs spread if favored- they played last week, Fresno didn't. Big 11 home favorites are 8-11 vs spread in non-conference games. WAC road underdogs are 10-8.

Louisiana Tech is huge favorite despite losing last five games, covering last four as an underdog; they're 2-0 vs spread when favored, going 2-1 at home vs I-A foes, beating Hawai'i 27-6, New Mexico State 45.7. Home favorites are 11-7 vs spread in WAC games. San Jose is 1-9 vs D-I foes after beating NM State 13-10 last week; Spartans are 0-5 as road dogs in '09, losing away games by 53-25-20-38-15 points. Three of La Tech's last four games went over the total.

Boise State allowed 35-25-21-33 points in last four games, but they are 4-1 vs spread as home favorite (Nevada scored with 1:17 left last week to cover on blue carpet); last four Bronco games went over total. New Mexico State has already lost three games by 38+ points this year; they are 3-3 as road dog. Boise is 48-point favorite; excellent game to avoid.

Arizona/USC both won rivalry games last week; Trojans won last seven games vs Arizona, winning the last three here by average score of 37-14, but Arizona covered last four meetings. Wildcats are 2-3 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 10-3-8 points. USC is 2-8 vs spread in last ten games, 2-3 as home favorite, winning games in Coliseum by 53-21-6-21 points. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total. Pac-10 home favorites are 12-11 vs spread.

Cal Bears won five of last six games; they're 4-1 on road, winning away games by 14-19-2-6 points. Cal is 4-4 as favorite, 2-2 on the road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games; three of last four Cal games stayed under. Huskies snapped 4-game skid with 30-0 win in Apple Cup last week; they're 5-4 vs spread as underdog, 3-1 at home. Cal won six of last seven series games, three of last four here. Favorite is 6-3 vs spread last nine series games. Pac-10 home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Favorite covered three of four Cincinnati-Pitt games; Bearcats' 28-20 win LY was their first in four meetings. Panthers lost rivalry game last week at West Virginia, snapping six-game win streak; they're 6-0 at home, and are underdog for first time this season. Bearcats are 11-0 but did give up 45-21-36 points in last three games, forcing zero turnovers. Six of last seven Pitt games stayed under total. Big East home underdogs are 2-6.

Hawai'i won last four games to get back to .500, upsetting Navy 24-17 last week; Warriors are 4-4 vs spread as underdog, covering last three as the dog. Wisconsin won three of last four games, but is just 2-2 on road, winning 31-28 at Minnesota, 31-28 at Indiana. Big 11 road favorites are 10-14 in non-league games, 2-3 on road. WAC underdogs are 13-11 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Four of last five Hawai'i games stayed under total.

FAU won four of last five games against FIU, scoring 55-57 points last two years; three of last four series games were decided by 31+ points. Owls are 2-4 on road, giving up 29+ points in all six games- they're 3-4 vs spread as underdog. Last five FAU road games went over. FIU split last four games after 1-6 start, but they are 2-0-1 vs spread as a favorite. Sun Belt home favorites are 13-10 against the spread.

Houston (+10.5) came to Greenville LY and beat East Carolina 41-24 in fairly big upset, racking up 621 yards; now Cougars are road favorite in C-USA championship game. Houston won seven of last eight games, is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as favorite, but just 1-3 as a road fave. ECU won five of last six games; they're 5-1 at home, with only loss 16-3 at Va Tech. C-USA home underdogs are 4-7 against the spread.

Winner of Alabama-Florida game goes to national title tilt; both teams are 12-0. Crimson Tide is underdog for first time this year; they started year with 34-24 win over Va Tech in this building, still most points they gave up this year. Florida was +10 in turnovers in last six games, after a 23-20 win over Arkansas Oct 17; they're 6-5 as favorite this year, 3-4 in last seven games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Bama games, 8-2 in last ten Florida tilts. Favorites are 18-23 vs spread in SEC games this season.

Georgia Tech (-4.5) beat Clemson 30-27 at home Sept 10, scoring TD on fake FG, outrushing Tigers 301-125; Tech led 24-7 at half, held on late. Both teams lost rivalry games last week; Clemson had a 6-game winning streak snapped at South Carolina. Spiller ran three kicks back for TDs in last eight games. Tech had 8-game win streak snapped last week; they've scored 20+ points in second half of last seven games. Under is 4-1-1 in Jackets' last six games.

Nebraska won last five games, allowing 10.6 ppg; they're 2-0 as the dog this year, losing 16-15 at Va Tech (+3.5), upsetting Oklahoma 10-3 (+6) in Norman. Cornhuskers have 11 INTs in last five games (+9 TO ratio). Texas plays for national title if it wins here; they covered five of last six games, after covering one of first five. Big 12 favorites are 22-19 against spread this year. Seven of last ten Texas games stayed under the total.

 

[ACneverwins]

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Cincinnati

I lost with a free pick on Cincinnati last week at home against Illinois, but then again, the reason I used the Bearcats as a freebie - a selection I didn't bet on personally - was because I wasn't sure whether they'd take that game seriously with this one at Pittsburgh on the horizon with a BCS bowl berth going to the victor. And, that's exactly what happened as Cincy jumped to the early double-digit lead and toyed with the Illini throughout, coasting to the 49-36 win but failing to get the cover as the 22-point home chalk.

If you analyze the Cincinnati-Illinois game from just the "who covered" perspective, you missed the bigger point of that contest, which was judging the effectiveness of quarterback Tony Pike, who was making his first start since October 15. In the team's previous game against West Virginia, he had attempted four passes and thrown two scoring strikes off the bench, raising his season total to 17 touchdown passes versus three interceptions. Well, against Illinois, I'd say he passed - literally and figuratively - with flying colors, throwing six more TD passes as Cincinnati's offense, averaging 38 points and 478 yards per game, continued to hum.

Why Cincy was winning its tune-up for this showdown, Pitt was tackling West Virginia in its annual Backyard Brawl, coming up on the short-end of a 19-16 final as the Mountaineers kicked a game-winning 43-yard field goal as time expired. The Panthers really gave that game away, missing two field goals while watching quarterback Bill Stull, who has enjoyed a good senior season, return to his interception-prone ways, as he was picked off twice.

Is Pitt the better defensive team in this match-up? No question about that. And the Panthers can bring the heat with 43 sacks on the season. But Pike negates that pressure with a quick release and an outstanding corps of receivers.

Pittsburgh can run the ball with freshman Dion Lewis (131 yards per game average, 5.8 ypc), but the Bearcats actually got their own running game going in the season's final three games, making Pike all the more lethal.

The bottom line in this game is that Pitt doesn't have the offensive firepower to match points with Cincinnati. And while the Bearcats went on the road earlier this year in a big step-up game and delivered with a win at Oregon State, I look at Pitt and see a team that barely hung on against Notre Dame's passing attack, failed to get the job done against an average West Virginia squad, and needed a huge comeback and last-minute field goal to escape at home against another average Big East foe in Connecticut. Those weren't exactly "big game" performances from a Pitt team whose coach, Dave Wannstedt, has never impressed me either when the spotlight has shone brightly.

I think this will be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day with Cincinnati holding on to pull out the 37-31 win.

PAID BY ME!

GOOD LUCK GUYS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

5* W iseg uy Big East B LO WO UT on R utg ers -1(-110 at bodog)

Off their biggest win of the season, the West Virginia Mountaineers will let down this weekend after beating Pitt 19-16 in the Backyard Brawl last weekend. Rutgers has been great this year, posting an 8-3 record on the season. This is the best defensive team in the Big East, allowing just 16.8 points/game. They allow 15.5 points/game at home, while WVU allows 27.0 points/game on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Rutgers is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Rutgers and lay the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

4* on Cincinnati/Pittsburgh UNDER 58.5(-110 at betus)

In a battle for the Big East Title, this will be a defensive game Saturday. Both teams are excellent defensively, with Cincinnati allowing 18.6 points/game and Pitt allowing 17.7 points/game. The last two meetings in this rivalry saw 41 combined points in 2007 and 49 combined points in 2008. The Bearcats are 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992. The Panthers are 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 58.5 points here.

 

[bort]

BTW this is unconfirmed but at the end of Budin's video he says he's taking the undervalued chalk... and then his site tells you he's on Rutgers-West Virginia. So he has to be on Rutgers -2.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n g

4* on USC -7(-108 at 5dimes)

USC hasn't shown this much value all season as just a small home favorite to beat Arizona, a team that has played it's way out of a Pac-10 Title. The Trojans have won the last two meetings in this rivalry by 7 points each, and they were expected to blow out the Wildcats in those two games. Now, with the odds makers adjusting this line down to 7, not much is expected from the Trojans here, and that's why we feel they will come out and dominate. The Trojans are 4-1 at home this year, scoring 34.8 points/game. Arizona is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, scoring just 23.7 points/game. USC is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. The Trojans haven't played up to their capability this year, and that's why they are showing so much value here Saturday. Take USC and lay the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* W ido w W iseg uy Ba ma/Florida Co nfer ence Ch ampio nship GA ME OF THE YEAR on Alabama +6(-110 at sportsinteraction)

All season long, Alabama has been the more impressive team. The Gators lack the same offensive firepower they did a year ago, and with the Crimson Tide playing in the role of revenge from last year's 20-31 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship, they'll come out with a little extra fire in this year's meeting. Florida's schedule this season was much easier than Alabama's, with cupcake opponents all over it. The Crimson Tide have been more battle-tested this year, pulling out some close wins along the way against quality opponents. Those experiences, plus last year's close loss to Florida, will have them prepared to pull this one out in the end. Alabama is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992. The Gators have yet to play a team with as much balance as Alabama, and the Crimson Tide will be able to move the ball on this defense both on the ground and through the air. Florida's biggest strength is running the football, but they haven't faced a defense as stingy against the run as Alabama's. The Crimson Tide allow just 78 rushing yards/game and 2.7 yards/carry. Take Alabama and the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n g

4* on South Florida +7.5(-108 at 5dimes)

We see no way South Florida loses this game by more than a touchdown Saturday. 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, with the lone exception being a 38-16 home win by South Florida in 2006. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. With starting QB Cody Endres out for the season for UConn, they are left with Zach Frazer who has completed just 52% of his passes this year with 7 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. Take South Florida and the points.

 

[bort]

.

 

[joe361]

BTW this is unconfirmed but at the end of Budin's video he says he's taking the undervalued chalk... and then his site tells you he's on Rutgers-West Virginia. So he has to be on Rutgers -2.

The under-valued chalk pick is on a NFL game Sunday at 1PM.

 

[goldencontender]

Saturday System Club Play GC-

On Saturday the system club play is on Wisconsin Green Bay. Game 788 at 8:00 eastern. WGB has bolted out of the gate with a solid 7-2 record this season. Tonight they qualify in a solid college hoops system and several big Power angles. WGB is 15-1 and 11-0 ats vs opponents who score 64 ppg or less, 23-2 vs losing teams,10-1 after scoring 80 or more and have won 20 of 21 times as a home favorite in this range. Tonight they take on an Illinois Chicago team that is not as good as they were last year. They are 8-26 vs winning teams,6-16 after scoring 60 or less and have lost 17 of 18 times as a road dog in this range. They have lost 4 of their first 5 games to open the season and may have a long night here. On Saturday in late phone action I have 3 Big system plays in NCAAF including a Big Championship Game. I have 2 college hoops plays from 29-2,26-5 Power angles and NBA coming on late report. We are 12-4 the past 3 Saturdays picking up 23 units as we are piping hot in all sports the last 6 weeks. Last Night we hit another big 5 unit NBA play. Today we will do even more damage. For the system Club play take Wisconsin Green Bay. BOL GC

 

[BetToWin33]

B LANG

Saturday's Selections ... NOTE:
Man I feel good about everything right now.

I feel great about the Florida Gators today. I flat out love the NFL card on Sunday, and that is a very scary statement considering I am on a 17-2-2 run paid and comp plays the last 5 weeks.

All season long people were waiting for this kind of run from me and I think it's safe to say it's here and it's a huge winning run at that.

I've said all along it's a long season, and I have been doing this way too long not to know it was going to turn good, and when it did I was going to go on a winning streak of a lifetime.

Well I am smack dab in the middle of it, and now it's my job once again to step up big and deliver big on this Saturday card and keep this thing moving in a positive direction.

I was able to do that in November. Now I have to do that in December. I am as confident as ever I will continue to feed off the winning November and once December has come and gone, I will have closed out 2009 exactly the way I said I would.

With back to back winning months.

Now sit back and enjoy my breakdown of why the Florida Gators take care of the Alabama Crimson Tide by 10 points or more.

40 DIME - FLORIDA GATORS - Tim Tebow.

This entire game and whether or not Florida covers the number doesn't come down to Florida's defense or Alabama's defense. It comes down to one guy and one guy only.

Tim Tebow.

If he plays well, executes the spread against Alabama's defense, no doubt in my mind Florida wins this game by 10 points or more.

First and foremost, let's start with this pointspread number of under a touchdown the Gators will try to cover.

Over their last 40 wins, 38 of them have been by 6 points or more. Juggle that number around in your head for a minute you have some time.

Last year Alabama played about as well as they possibly could and still lost by 11 and that was with an experienced QB in John Parker Wilson. This year it's first year starter Greg McElroy, who now plays the biggest game of his entire life.

The bottom line is he hasn't seen a defense like this all year long. I am talking about the # 1 overall defense in the entire country in the Florida Gators.

Last week at Auburn the Crimson Tide struggled in their running game to the tune of just 72 yards rushing and that was against the # 80th run defense in the entire country. Now they step up to face the 8th best run defense in the country.

Yes, I am fully aware of Alabama's # 2 overall defense in the country but it's a defense Tebow has seen and will be ready for.

Folks, you can't discount the experience of Tim Tebow in this game. You just can't, and as this game unfolds right before your every eyes you will see what that experience will do for Florida in this football game.

Getting the Gators at this kind of value is value I can't pass up.

Since they lost to Georgia laying 7 1/2 back in 2007, the Gators have been a favorite of 7 points or less 4 times and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS.

They laid 7 1/2 at South Carolina at the end of the 2007 season and won 51-21. In 2008 they laid 7 1/2 at Tennessee and won 30-6, 3 games later they laid 6 1/2 at home to LSU and won 51-21 and in a payback game against Georgia laying 6 1/2 they won 49-10.

Other than that, you haven't gotten Florida laying single digits again.

This year you have had to lay 16 points or more in every single game except the -10 at LSU.

You have gotten no value with the Gators this year when you have been asked to lay 37, 30, 20 1/2, 24 1/2, 22, 16, 35, 17 1/2, 47 and 25.

I want you to think about the value you are getting with the Gators today. It's basically 3 years full of value and it's value I am willing to step out 40 dimes on.

Congrats to the Florida Gators as they deliver the double digit win and now get ready to face the Texas Longhorns in the National championship game.
.
5 DIME - TEXAS LONGHORNS - (if line is 14 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 14.) - Blowout. Absolute blowout.

This is as big of a mismatch as you can have all the way across the board.

Nebraska offensively has been a disaster all year long, and now they have to step up and find an offense against the best defensive opponent they will have faced all year long? It's a reciepe for a blowout.

Did you know 6 of the last 7 Big 12 Championship Games have been decided by 21 points or more? You might as well make it 7 of the last 8 because that is exactly where we are heading tonight.

What has Nebraska shown you this year offensively that leads you to believe they can so anything in this game to keep up with Texas?

In Big 12 play they were completely shut down at Missouri for 3 quarters until the Tigers offense turned it over 3 times in the 4th that got them to 27 points.

They scored 10 against Texas Tech, 9 points at home to Iowa State, a game they turned it over 8 times, 20 at Baylor, 10 against Oklahoma and 17 at Kansas State.

Their two biggest offensive outputs were 31 at Kansas, who's defense is ranked 74th overall and 28 last week at Colorado, who's defense is ranked 60th.

Let's see how they execute against the 5th best defense in the country for 60 minutes.

I am not the least bit worried about the Nebraska defense because the only offense they faced that comes near Texas is Texas Tech and the Cornhuskers were beaten soundly at home 31-10.

The bottom line folks is you don't struggle to score 10 points at home against the 48th ranked overall defense in Texas Tech, and go on to compete against the 2nd best team in the country who is playing to get into the biggest game of them all.

Longhorns roll with complete focus and get set to play the Gators for the National championship.

5 DIME - CONNECTICUT HUSKIES - (Note: If line is 7 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and get 7 ) - There is no way South Florida competes for 60 minutes in this game.

They just lost at home to their in-state rival Miami-Florida, 31-10 and now have to get on a plane and fly to the cold weather of Uconn and face a surging Huskies team.

I am talking about a UConn team that has one of the best ATS marks in the entire country this year.

Uconn has covered every single game this year with exception of their home game versus Rutgers. That is absolutely correct.

The Louisville game was bet down to 12 1/2 and 12 in some places and their 13 point win was enough to get the cover.

They have handled everyone and if you thought for one second there would be a letdown after their huge win over Notre Dame 2 weeks ago, you thought wrong.

They only came back home and completely hammered Syracuse to the tune of 56-31, and I fully believe it will be all systems go for Randy Edsalll's team in this game as well.

If South Florida some how shows up and competes and covers the number against one of the best pointspread teams in all of college football this year, so be it.

My dollar says they don't.

Uconn rolls large.

FREE SELECTION - CLEMSON TIGERS

 

[BIGGEST-LOSER]

Bettors World

5* Key Release
Alabama +6 over Florida​

We've been waiting for this game for 364 days. It was 364 days ago Saturday that undefeated Alabama at 12-0 played 11-1 Florida in the SEC title game with Florida winning the game 31-20 as 10 point favorites, which cost Alabama the chance to play for a National Title. Fast forward one year, and the circumstances surrounding this game could not possibly be any better. Both teams are undefeated at 12-0. They will be playing first, for the SEC Title, and 2nd, for a chance to play in the BCS Title game. Currently, leading sportsbook Bet Jamaica has Florida favored by -5.5 with a total of 41.
It's extremely rare in sports to get a 2nd chance of this magnitude. Last years loss by Alabama was devastating. Yet here they are, a year later, with a chance to make things right. A chance to accomplish what they failed to accomplish one year ago. There are many teams in all sports throughout history that would do anything for a 2nd chance like this. Few get the opportunity. Alabama needs to make the most of it. We think they will.
This years game breaks down much differently than last years. Yes, we bet Alabama a year ago. You can read our write up on that game here. We made the play on Alabama a year ago, despite the fact that the numbers we rely on the most, the numbers that we feel are most indicative of a teams true strength, revealed that the line on the game was actually dead on. You can go back and read that article for yourself, but we will revisit the breakdown briefly here.
A year ago, the yards per point numbers against common opponents suggested that Florida was 9.5 points better than Alabama. There was no question Florida was the better team. Florida's numbers were off the charts. 9.4 on offense and 24 on defense for a +14.5 overall. I've been looking at these types of numbers for 26 years folks. Trust me when I tell you those numbers were phenomenal. Alabama had decent numbers of 11.6 on offense and 16.8 on defense for a +5.2. Good numbers, not great.
The difference between the two teams numbers a year ago suggested that Florida was about 9.5 points better than Bama. Florida won by 11, so as you can see, the numbers were correct. From a strictly numerical standpoint, we should have stayed off the game. However, we felt we had some motivational edges that would make up for the talent difference. Alabama led 20-17 after 3 quarters, and trailed by just 4 with under 3 minutes to go before Florida scored the spread busting touchdown with 2:50 to play in the game.
But this years numbers tell a very different story. There were 7 common opponents this year with both teams obviously going 7-0 against those opponents. But unlike a year ago, where Florida had the better numbers across the board in every category, this years numbers are fairly even. They both averaged 400 total yards of offense. Florida averaged 31 points against these common opponents to Alabama's 29. They both held these teams to an average of 11 points per game. They both averaged 6 yards per play offensively and gave up 4 yards per play defensively.
When you look at the yards per point numbers against these 7 common opponents you see a much different story than a year ago. This year, it's Alabama with the edge. Florida has a 13 on offense and a 20 on defense. Alabama has a 14 on offense and a 25 on defense. So, +7 for Florida, +11 for Bama, edge to Bama by 4 points. Remember, last year these numbers favored Florida by 9.5 and the line was 10. This year, the numbers suggest Bama should be favored yet we're getting 5.5 to 6 points.
Bottom line here is the correct line on this game, meaning the true difference between these two teams from a numerical standpoint, would be anywhere from pickem to Alabama by a field goal. Yet this game opened Alabama -4.5 and was bet up to -5.5 and -6. So the oddsmakers got it right from their perspective. They simply want to attempt to get equal action both ways (a rarity). Had they opened this game pick em, sportsbooks would have been overwhelmed with Florida money. So, the right line from their perspective. From our perspective as players though, the wrong line, and the perfect spot to step in and get some value.
We not only have the numbers working for us but we also have the motivational edges. Revenge can be huge in the right spot. This is the right spot. As mentioned at the start if this write up, it's rare to get a 2nd chance like this, yet here it is, on a silver platter for the Crimson Tide. For these kids, it's the opportunity of a lifetime. Expect them to leave it all on the field on Saturday afternoon.
From a betting perspective we'll sum it up like this for you. Wagering is a long term proposition. You expect to win every wager you make of course, but realize that if you're good, you'll end up hitting around 55-58% over the course of many years. In the past 26 years as a professional handicapper, a game with the same dynamics as this one has come up plenty of times. I've won roughly 56% of those. Slightly higher actually with numbers that are this favorable. Those percentages will likely hold up over the next 26 years. This is just one play in the big scheme of things. It may win, it may lose. But the fact remains, it's a damn good bet.
It's also important to point out that we are not making this play because we think Alabama can hang within the spread and cover. That's not the way to go about betting underdogs. The feeling here is that Alabama wins this game straight up. The points are a bonus. Having said that, you still want the best line you can get. As of this writing on Tuesday, there are a couple of +6's on the board with most books at 5.5. Monitor the lines using the Bettorsworld Free Live Odds feed and make sure you get the best possible number you can.
This play qualifies as are highest rated play of the year.
A 5* Key Release Alabama +6 or more over Florida.
Also note that there is value on the money line here as well at +210 or better. I can tell you with confidence that over the years, with numbers like we see in this game from Bama and Florida, in similar games, there is no way one team wins at a 2-1 clip over the long run. If you took +210 on every game with similar numbers over the last 20 years you would have been handsomely rewarded. Remember, long term profits. Not instant gratification. That's what separates winning bettors from losing ones.
Good Luck, Enjoy the game.

​

3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas (Good a +14)
We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently Sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.
One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.
Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.
In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete. But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.
Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.
Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?
The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number. Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.
Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.
Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.
No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.
We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.............3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.

 

[BIGGEST-LOSER]

Harry Wins

Hello Member,

HUT 1 .. HUT 2 .. HIKE .. HIKE .. Power Run up the Middle.. and GRIND it out .. and take it to the HOUSE .. on my FREE pick below.

Let's start you off with a MONSTER FREE College Football Pick ..
Alabama +5.5 over Florida ... How do you like those Apples .. or let's call it "Oranges"????

I think Alabama will BEAT Florida ... by 3 points .. however .. if you can TEASE ALABAMA ... take them +12.5 ... it would be GOLD in my opinion.

 

[Topgun68]

Kelso:
50 units Alabama +5
10 units La Tech -23.5
5 units Pitt +2
4 units West Virginia +1.5
3 units Arizona +7

Root:
10* Washington +7
6* Pitt +2.5
4* East Carolina +3
GOY Clemson -1

 

[LLXC13]

Logical Approach Newsletter

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: RUTGERS + 2 ½ over West Virginia - This series has been one of the most one sided in college football over the past two decades with West Virginia winning 14 in a row since Rutgers' last win in 1994! But for virtually this entire span WVU has clearly been the better team and have been favored in every meeting. Rutgers has improved greatly over the past few seasons and talentwise is now on a par with WVU. This is actually the smallest amount by which WVU has been favored since that last Rutgers win. The Mountaineers are off of their dramatic last second win over arch rival Pitt last week while Rutgers rebounded from their shocking loss at Syracuse with a solid 20 point win at Louisville. WVU has the better offense while Rutgers has a slight edge on defense. Rutgers has excelled at avoiding turnovers all season and creating them on defense. The emotional and intangible edges lay with the host as they seek to end a decade and a half of frustration. Both teams are 8-3 and headed to Bowls. Rutgers wins 23-16.

Other Featured College Selections

ILLINOIS - 3 over Fresno State - This was supposed to be a tuneup for Illinois following an early end to the Big 10 season and keeping them fresher for their upcoming Bowl game. Only problem is that the Illini underachieved this season and at 3-8 this game ends their season and there will be no Bowl. To be fair, Illinois did play better down the stretch, going 2-2 and putting forth a solid effort in last week's loss at unbeaten Cincinnati. Fresno is 7-4 and will be headed to a Bowl. Their level of interest here is questionable although they did travel well earlier this season, losing close games at the aforementioned Cincinnati as well as at Wisconsin in OT. Illinois plays in the much tougher Big 10 and although Fresno was 6-2 in WAC play both losses came in one sided losses to the WAC's top two teams, Boise State and Nevada. Normally this would be a spot to play Fresno but usually they'd be the underdog. Given Illinois' better play down the stretch and a desire to send their seniors out on a winning note, the Illini should play to their potential. Illinois wins 31-23.

Alabama + 6 over Florida (SEC Championship Game at Atlanta, GA) - This is the matchup that's been expected since last season's meeting when Florida beat 'Bama 31-20 to end Alabama's unbeaten season and advance to the BCS Title game. The stakes are the same this season only now BOTH teams are 12-0. Each team had close calls this season with Florida nearly losing at home to Arkansas in mid season and Alabama needing a late comeback last week to edge arch rival Auburn. Both teams feasted on non-SEC foes with Alabama's best outside win being their opening day demolition of Virginia Tech while Florida's best non-SEC win was last week over beleaguered Florida State. Both teams are outstanding on defense, ranking #1 and #3 nationally. Florida has been slightly better on offense with record setting QB Tebow but the Gator offense is down from last season. Alabama performed slightly better versus expectations in conference play with a 5-3 ATS mark. Florida was just 2-5-1 ATS vs SEC foes. Both teams are talented, deep and well coached. There's really very little difference between them. Alabama does have the revenge motive and underdog mentality on its side. Prior to last season's SEC Title game Alabama had covered 5 straight vs Florida dating back to 1998 (3-2 straight up). The points are attractive with an upset quite possible. Alabama wins 20-17.

 

[LLXC13]

CKO

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11 *RUTGERS over West Virginia Late Score Forecast: *RUTGERS 30 - West Virginia 17
Rutgers got caught napping on the road two weeks ago at Syracuse. Now, the Scarlet Knights are looking to snag the Mountaineers emerging from their own party mode after the Mounties’ satisfying victory over bitter rival Pittsburgh in Morgantown. WV has lost three of its last four road games (losses at Auburn, South Florida and Cincy) while winning only at Syracuse. Contrariwise, Rutgers is happy to be closing the season at home after playing four of its previous five games on the road! The penetrating Scarlet Knight defense is tough vs. the run (16th in the nation) and hassles opposing QBs (Rutgers is 16th in sacks). HC Greg Schiano deserves credit for his steady development of talented true frosh QB Tom Savage (only four ints.!) and for augmenting his ground game with Wildcat plays for big (6-3, 215) WR Mohamed Sanu.

10 FLORIDA over Alabama Late Score Forecast: FLORIDA 31 - Alabama 13 SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia
Alabama mentor Nick Saban has reportedly been preparing for this inevitable rematch ever since bitter, come-from- ahead 31-20 loss vs. Florida in LY’s SEC title game, but still strongly support a special Gator squad, led by the winningest senior class in SEC history (47 victories!). Now that Florida’s superb orchestrator Tim Tebow (17 of 21 for 221 yds., 90 YR vs. Florida State) is making more downfield strikes to veteran targets TE Hernandez (5 catches for 83 yds. vs. ‘Noles) & WR Cooper (5 TDC last 5 games), balanced Gator attack (236 ypg rushing, 215 passing) effectively stretches the aggressive Tide defense, unable to contain UF on 2 long TD drives in crucial 4th Q year ago. Even if Bama’s star RB Ingram (only 30 YR vs. Auburn) unfazed by hip pointer, doubt unfinished, pressured QB McElroy (Gators have SEC-best 34 sacks) effectively works play-action vs. ball-hawking Gator 2ndary (51%, 20 ints., just 6 TDs), featuring lock-down CB Haden (4 “picks”). And keep in mind, Urban Meyer’s squad has won by 6 pts.-or-more in 38 of past 39 triumphs.

10 TEXAS over Nebraska Late Score Forecast: TEXAS 35 - Nebraska 10 Big XII Championship in Arlington, Texas
Nebraska has one of the toughest defenses (only 11.1 ppg) in the country, and its defensive front—led by disruptive DTs Ndamukong Suh (71⁄2 sacks) & Jared Crick (9 sacks)—is arguably the best. However, the Cornhusker offense (92nd in total offense; 93rd in passing) is limited, and the NU ground game doesn’t provide many long gainers. This raises the very relevant question: What happens if prolific Texas QB Colt McCoy gets the Longhorns off to a fast start? Or, what if Texas’ own hard-charging defense (fifth in the nation overall, first vs. the rush, third in sacks) gets off to its own fast start? The Horns defense and STs have collected 11 return TDs TY. Six of the last seven Big XII title games have been decided by three TDs or more. So it’s no big surprise if that scenario repeats.

NINE-RATED GAMES: BOISE STATE (-461⁄2) vs. New Mexico State—Broncos looking to lock up a 13-0 regular season; need “beauty points” for BCS purposes

 

[LLXC13]

CKO Basketball

*SAN ANTONIO 109 - Denver 96 RATING - 10
*SAN ANTONIO over Denver (NBA)...San Antonio gaining momentum after an injury-plagued start. Spurs have won 5 straight, covering 4, and Manu Ginobili’s return to action puts the San Antonio trio of all-stars back on the court together. Denver appears to have been overachieving early, but Nuggets have dropped 5 of last 6 against the points on the road. Although Carmelo Anthony proved to be a real force in November, things won’t come as easily as his Nuggets are required to visit tough venues such as the AT&T Center.

 

[LLXC13]

Goldsheet

Key Releases:
HAWAII 31 - Wisconsin 30—Wisconsin has been an underachiever against the points the last few seasons, and HC Bielema’s Badgers have recorded just 3 of their last 10 wins by double digits. Meanwhile, bowl eligibility and an automatic bid to the Hawaii Bowl (and perhaps a chance to face former mentor June Jones’ SMU Mustangs) are on the line for the 6-6 Warriors (they win, they’re in). Badgers are 76th in pass efficiency defense, while now-healthy Hawaii soph QB Bryant Moniz keys the third-rated pass attack in the country. Rainbow Warriors fully capable of springing upset on vacationing Wisconsin and securing a sixth bowl appearance in seven years. CABLE TV—ESPN2

 

[LLXC13]

Golsheet Extra

Technical Plays:
UCONN
One of the pointspread revelations of this season has been UConn, which has a chance to complete one of the best campaigns in history vs. the line when playing host to South Florida at Rentschler Field Saturday afternoon. The Huskies have covered 9 of 10 chances on the board this season (and 10 of 11 dating to the end of the ‘08 campaign) and are now 19-8 vs. the number their last 27 at East Hartford. Moreover, UConn has posted a +10.75 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark its last two games. This has also been a home-oriented series vs. the Bulls, with the host covering the last 4 meetings, and USF hasn’t posted a cover in its last 3 games (0-2- 1 vs. line).

LOUISIANA TECH
It’s our last chance to go against San Jose State this season, and darned if we’re going to pass it up. The Spartans have been plumbing some almost uncharted pointspread depths lately, dropping their last 8 vs. the number and 14 of their last 15 since a year ago. Which are reasons enough to go with La Tech in this week’s regular-season finale at Ruston. Note that the Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 13 on the board at Joe Aillet Stadium.

WASHINGTON
The Cal Bears have not provided much pointspread value lately in a few key roles that work against them in Saturday’s Pac-10 finale at Seattle against host Washington. Note that the Bears are just 2-7 vs. the number their last 9 as Pac-10 chalk, and only 4-8 vs. the line their last 12 on the conference road. As for the improved Huskies, they’ve covered 3 of 4 as a home dog this season.