ACE ACE
$500.00 Take #359 LSU (+4) over Mississippi (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Mississippi has been a bit overrated all season long and I think that it’s going to come back and catch up with them again here. Ole Miss pulled the upset last year in Baton Rouge and I think that the Tiges will return the favor. Underdogs have been the way to go in the SEC over the last few years and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.
$300.00 Take #356 UCLA (-4.5) over Arizona State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Arizona has a bit of a quarterback controversy on their team and I really don’t think that either one of the signal callers are very good. UCLA has lost two straight years to the Sun Devils but they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. UCLA was really the victim of a tough early conference schedule, with tough road games, but now they are really making a push towards being bowl eligible. Arizona State has lost four straight and I think that they take one on the chin here.
$600.00 Take #379 Oregon (-6) over Arizona (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Oregon is simply the stronger team here and I think that their defense is going to shut down freshman quarterback Nick Foles. The Ducks are on a 7-1 ATS rush and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Pac-10 games. They have won eight of the last 10 meetings and are 5-3 ATS in the last eight matchups with the Wildcats. I think that the return of LeGarrette Blount will give this Ducks running game a big boost as well. Blount was the team’s best offensive player before he was suspended and will make a very good Oregon offense that much better.
$800.00 Take #358 Stanford (-7) over Cal (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
I think that Cal is going to have a lot of problems on offense without Heisman candidate Jahvid Best. Cal has shown that it can be blown out, as they did at Oregon and at USC, and I think that if they get down big early we’ll see another snowball effect. This is a big rivalry game. And John Harbaugh knows that his team still has an outside shot at a BCS berth. I don’t expect Stanford to have any mercy and I think that they blow out the visitors.
$200.00 Take #362 BYU (-10) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
BYU has really had Air Force’s number over the past several seasons. They have won five straight in this series and are 5-0 ATS in those games. This Air Force offense has not been nearly as explosive this year without proven offensive players. BYU is still trying to earn a spot in a major bowl game and they know that they need an impressive showing after barely making it past New Mexico last week. I like BYU big.
$500.00 Take #359 LSU (+4) over Mississippi (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Mississippi has been a bit overrated all season long and I think that it’s going to come back and catch up with them again here. Ole Miss pulled the upset last year in Baton Rouge and I think that the Tiges will return the favor. Underdogs have been the way to go in the SEC over the last few years and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.
$300.00 Take #356 UCLA (-4.5) over Arizona State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Arizona has a bit of a quarterback controversy on their team and I really don’t think that either one of the signal callers are very good. UCLA has lost two straight years to the Sun Devils but they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. UCLA was really the victim of a tough early conference schedule, with tough road games, but now they are really making a push towards being bowl eligible. Arizona State has lost four straight and I think that they take one on the chin here.
$600.00 Take #379 Oregon (-6) over Arizona (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Oregon is simply the stronger team here and I think that their defense is going to shut down freshman quarterback Nick Foles. The Ducks are on a 7-1 ATS rush and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Pac-10 games. They have won eight of the last 10 meetings and are 5-3 ATS in the last eight matchups with the Wildcats. I think that the return of LeGarrette Blount will give this Ducks running game a big boost as well. Blount was the team’s best offensive player before he was suspended and will make a very good Oregon offense that much better.
$800.00 Take #358 Stanford (-7) over Cal (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
I think that Cal is going to have a lot of problems on offense without Heisman candidate Jahvid Best. Cal has shown that it can be blown out, as they did at Oregon and at USC, and I think that if they get down big early we’ll see another snowball effect. This is a big rivalry game. And John Harbaugh knows that his team still has an outside shot at a BCS berth. I don’t expect Stanford to have any mercy and I think that they blow out the visitors.
$200.00 Take #362 BYU (-10) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
BYU has really had Air Force’s number over the past several seasons. They have won five straight in this series and are 5-0 ATS in those games. This Air Force offense has not been nearly as explosive this year without proven offensive players. BYU is still trying to earn a spot in a major bowl game and they know that they need an impressive showing after barely making it past New Mexico last week. I like BYU big.
THE FALL MIRACLE
BYU (-10) over AIR FORCE
Don't pay too much attention to BYU's little 5 point win at New Mexico last week.
Coach Mike Locksley and Bronco Mendenhall go way back, so there was no effort or even thought to run up the score. This is a good spot for BYU with Air Force coming off 3 consecutive easy wins off of bad teams. They took Utah to overtime and played TCU close, so don't expect a 3rd surprise. The TCU game was not as close as the score indicated. The Frogs fumbled twice inside the Air Force 10 yard line, and while trying to run out the clock up 20-10, a 3rd fumble allowed
the Falcons to get a TD with a minute left and it was raining in both games, which benefits the running game and that's all Air Force does. This is Max Hall's game today- he's got little time left to make a last ditch impression for a high draft pick. Air Force's option attack can be intimidating and they have the ability to control the clock, but everyone now knows their schemes so BYU will be fully prepared to defend it. If their defense could hold Oklahoma to 13 points they should hold Air Force to about the same, and remember they were (-5) in TO margin in their bad loss vs. Florida State and also saw Utah St. get a backdoor cover with 2 seconds left. Every time Mendenhall's crew has a off-game, they have come up big in the next one.
BYU surely respects the Air Force Academy but since the Falcons went for and scored a meaningless TD on the last play of their game back in 2003, the Cougars have since won each game handily. With a year of experience facing their triple option offense and an eagerness to make up for last week's lack of attention, Max Hall should have no trouble getting points at home vs. the Falcons and if he put up 50 against Wyoming's defense, I'll call for 5 TD's today.
BYU 35, Air Force 17
Play on: BYU
OKLAHOMA (-6.5) over TEXAS TECH
This is the 2nd time the Sooners are less than a TD favorite and they failed the first time at Nebraska. The reason was QB Landry Jones, Bradford's replacement, threw 5 interceptions. Tech coach Mike Leach had a rather interesting press conference after their 52-30 loss to A&M, referring to their "fat little girlfriends" about 10 times. But I think his main objective was to become bowl eligible, which they did after scoring 28 fourth quarter points vs. Kansas. Let's keep in mind Oklahoma's 4 losses have come by a total of 12 points. All 5 of their defensive linemen are NFL draft potential. Actually 4 of them bypassed the draft last season to come back for 2009 and try to win a championship. That won't happen, but DeMarco Murray is running out of time to make his own statement. Even so, Oklahoma's defense has given up a total of 6 TD's in the first half in their 9 games.
Tech did get a nice win at Nebraska, but only tallied 240 yards of offense. The turning point was when Nebraska had the ball inside the 10 yard line and threw an "almost forward" pass that was really a backwards pass, and Tech scooped it up and took it the other way for a 14-0 lead instead of 7-7. The Sooners have out-gained their last 6 opponents and by an average of 174 yards.
Obviously, the Sooners really have it going right now. Tech can light it up against even mediocre teams but will be lucky to get 2 touchdowns against what is almost an NFL rookie defensive line, so go with the Sooners to make up for lost time in a road game that will feature plenty of traveling fans from Norman.
Oklahoma 31, Texas Tech 17
Play on: OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN (+7) over WISCONSIN
This will be the Wildcat's last game of the season and I'm having trouble finding reasons for the TD spread despite the Cats just knocking off Iowa and streaking Illinois on the road. Senior Mike Kafka has is athletic and has played well, passing for 600 yards more than Wisconsin's Scott Tolzein. Both of these teams had some games that could have gone either way and the jumbling results in a ranked status for Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been a hot team at home but on the road, favored by a TD is an advantage to NW. Just twice this entire decade during the regular season, in 2006 at Purdue and 2004 at Ohio St, did the Badgers win a road game over a winning team by more than a TD. They've beaten a few teams handily on the road, but not winning teams. Five of their 7 FBS wins have come by 1 score or less this season, although they did out-play Ohio State in that loss. With Ohio State going to the Rose Bowl the Badgers don't have a whole lot to play for and still have a game left at Hawaii- possibly a great spot for the Warriors, while this is Northwestern's last game.
Northwestern's defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz was fired as Wisconsin's DC after the 2007 season, even though the Badgers went 9-4 and gave up under 24 points a game, so look for him to have an extra beef of motivation out of his defensive players as this is the first meeting between the 2 teams since. That alone is reason enough but with a TD to give up, go with the dog, as Wisconsin's last 20 games away from the confines of Madison, they have won just 3 of those 20 games by more than a TD, and 2 of them were at Big 10 basement Indiana.
Northwestern 24, Wisconsin 17
Play on: NORTHWESTERN
BYU (-10) over AIR FORCE
Don't pay too much attention to BYU's little 5 point win at New Mexico last week.
Coach Mike Locksley and Bronco Mendenhall go way back, so there was no effort or even thought to run up the score. This is a good spot for BYU with Air Force coming off 3 consecutive easy wins off of bad teams. They took Utah to overtime and played TCU close, so don't expect a 3rd surprise. The TCU game was not as close as the score indicated. The Frogs fumbled twice inside the Air Force 10 yard line, and while trying to run out the clock up 20-10, a 3rd fumble allowed
the Falcons to get a TD with a minute left and it was raining in both games, which benefits the running game and that's all Air Force does. This is Max Hall's game today- he's got little time left to make a last ditch impression for a high draft pick. Air Force's option attack can be intimidating and they have the ability to control the clock, but everyone now knows their schemes so BYU will be fully prepared to defend it. If their defense could hold Oklahoma to 13 points they should hold Air Force to about the same, and remember they were (-5) in TO margin in their bad loss vs. Florida State and also saw Utah St. get a backdoor cover with 2 seconds left. Every time Mendenhall's crew has a off-game, they have come up big in the next one.
BYU surely respects the Air Force Academy but since the Falcons went for and scored a meaningless TD on the last play of their game back in 2003, the Cougars have since won each game handily. With a year of experience facing their triple option offense and an eagerness to make up for last week's lack of attention, Max Hall should have no trouble getting points at home vs. the Falcons and if he put up 50 against Wyoming's defense, I'll call for 5 TD's today.
BYU 35, Air Force 17
Play on: BYU
OKLAHOMA (-6.5) over TEXAS TECH
This is the 2nd time the Sooners are less than a TD favorite and they failed the first time at Nebraska. The reason was QB Landry Jones, Bradford's replacement, threw 5 interceptions. Tech coach Mike Leach had a rather interesting press conference after their 52-30 loss to A&M, referring to their "fat little girlfriends" about 10 times. But I think his main objective was to become bowl eligible, which they did after scoring 28 fourth quarter points vs. Kansas. Let's keep in mind Oklahoma's 4 losses have come by a total of 12 points. All 5 of their defensive linemen are NFL draft potential. Actually 4 of them bypassed the draft last season to come back for 2009 and try to win a championship. That won't happen, but DeMarco Murray is running out of time to make his own statement. Even so, Oklahoma's defense has given up a total of 6 TD's in the first half in their 9 games.
Tech did get a nice win at Nebraska, but only tallied 240 yards of offense. The turning point was when Nebraska had the ball inside the 10 yard line and threw an "almost forward" pass that was really a backwards pass, and Tech scooped it up and took it the other way for a 14-0 lead instead of 7-7. The Sooners have out-gained their last 6 opponents and by an average of 174 yards.
Obviously, the Sooners really have it going right now. Tech can light it up against even mediocre teams but will be lucky to get 2 touchdowns against what is almost an NFL rookie defensive line, so go with the Sooners to make up for lost time in a road game that will feature plenty of traveling fans from Norman.
Oklahoma 31, Texas Tech 17
Play on: OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN (+7) over WISCONSIN
This will be the Wildcat's last game of the season and I'm having trouble finding reasons for the TD spread despite the Cats just knocking off Iowa and streaking Illinois on the road. Senior Mike Kafka has is athletic and has played well, passing for 600 yards more than Wisconsin's Scott Tolzein. Both of these teams had some games that could have gone either way and the jumbling results in a ranked status for Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been a hot team at home but on the road, favored by a TD is an advantage to NW. Just twice this entire decade during the regular season, in 2006 at Purdue and 2004 at Ohio St, did the Badgers win a road game over a winning team by more than a TD. They've beaten a few teams handily on the road, but not winning teams. Five of their 7 FBS wins have come by 1 score or less this season, although they did out-play Ohio State in that loss. With Ohio State going to the Rose Bowl the Badgers don't have a whole lot to play for and still have a game left at Hawaii- possibly a great spot for the Warriors, while this is Northwestern's last game.
Northwestern's defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz was fired as Wisconsin's DC after the 2007 season, even though the Badgers went 9-4 and gave up under 24 points a game, so look for him to have an extra beef of motivation out of his defensive players as this is the first meeting between the 2 teams since. That alone is reason enough but with a TD to give up, go with the dog, as Wisconsin's last 20 games away from the confines of Madison, they have won just 3 of those 20 games by more than a TD, and 2 of them were at Big 10 basement Indiana.
Northwestern 24, Wisconsin 17
Play on: NORTHWESTERN
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