B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
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3* on Miami -4.5(-110 at Betus)
The Hurricanes have BCS dreams this season and the team to pull it off. They won't be falling to Clemson at home this week, instead they'll pick up another impressive home win. Miami is 3-0 at home this season, beating the likes of Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and Florida A&M. They are outscoring those 3 teams 34.0 to 17.7 on the season. Clemson is 0-2 on the road this year with losses to Georgia Tech and Maryland. Clemson is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The Hurricanes are the superior team and they prove it on their home turf Saturday. Take Miami and lay the points
3* on UConn +7.5(-110 at Sportinteraction)
UConn players will be playing for Jasper Howard, who was stabbed and killed after their win over Louisville last Saturday. WVU may have the more talented team, but these Huskies players will not be denied this weekend as they put everything on the line in memory of Howard. Plus this UConn team is a lot better then they get credit for. They still run the football as well as anyone in the Big East, putting up 180 rushing yards/game including 200 yards/game on the road this season. The difference is that this team can actually move the ball through the air as well, averaging 193 passing yards/game and completing 62% of their attempts. This balanced offense will give WVU fits Saturday. WVU has played a very easy schedule to this point, with the lone exception being their 30-41 road loss at Auburn. They have beaten Liberty, East Carolina, Colorado, Marshall and Syracuse for their 5 wins this year. Starting QB Jarrett Brown is doubtful for WVU Saturday with a concussion, which only gives the Huskies an even better chance to win outright. UConn is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Take UConn and the points.
3* on Pittsburgh -6.5(-110 at Betus)
Pittsburgh will easily win by a touchdown Saturday at home against South Florida, and likely by double-digits. South Florida lost their last game to Cincinnat to fall to 5-1 on the season. The Bulls always tend to collapse in the second half after impressive runs to start the year, and we're predicting it happens again in 2009. The fact of the matter is that South Florida has not played anyone except for Cincinnati, and they got handled 17-34 at home in front of a National TV audience. Their starting QB, Matt Grothe, is out for the season and backup P.J. Daniels is clearly a far cry from Grothe. Pittsburgh is 6-1 this season and should be 7-0 if it wasn't for a second half meltdown at NC State earlier. The Panthers have learned from that loss, and they've reeled off 3 straight impressive wins over Louisville, Connecticut and Rutgers since. Pitt is 3-0 at home this season, allowing just 12.7 points/game. They are outscoring their opponents by 17.0 points/game at home. The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
4* on Tennessee/Alabama UNDER 43(-110 at Betus)
There's no question this is going to be a low-scoring SEC affair Saturday between two of the best defenses in the conference. We don't see either team topping the 21-point mark Saturday. Tennessee allows just 19.5 points/game and 110 rushing yards/contest, which is key because Alabama primarily runs the rock. The Crimson Tide are giving up only 11.6 points/game and 8.5 points/game at home. They give up just 2.3 yards/carry this season and 1.8 yards/carry at home. Tennessee's biggest strength is running the football as well. The Volunteers are 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Alabama is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The UNDER is 31-11-1 in Crimson Tide last 43 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the UNDER 43 points here.
4* on Oklahoma State/Baylor OVER 53(-110 at Bookmaker)
This is a very low total for two high-scoring teams in Oklahoma State and Baylor. Oklahoma State is scoring 37.5 points/game while Baylor is putting up 27.0 points/game this season. We don't see either team being held below their season averages in this one. Baylor puts up 40.0 points/game at home this season. Oklahoma State has put up 34 and 45 points on Baylor in their last 2 meetings, respectively, and we feel they will get most of this OVER on their own. The Cowboys are 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Oklahoma State is 5-1 OVER in their last 6 games following a win. Take the OVER 53 points here.
4* on Nebraska -17(-110 at Betus)
Off an upset loss to Texas Tech, expect Nebraska to bounce back Saturday and demolish Iowa State at home. Nebraska is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with Iowa State. The Huskers beat the Cylcones 35-7 last year on the road and 35-17 the previous year at home. Nebraska is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Take Nebraska and lay the points.
6* W id ow W ise guy 2 00 9 Big 12 G AME OF THE Y EAR on Missouri +13(-110 at Betus)
Fresh off their huge win in the Red River Rivalry, Texas is primed for a letdown after beating Oklahoma 16-13 last week. Missouri caught themselves looking ahead last week when they went into Stillwater and got handled by Oklahoma State 17-33. They threw for 325 yards in the loss, but 4 turnovers shows that their minds clearly weren't in that game. The Tigers return home 100% focused on knocking off a Top-3 team in the Longhorns this Saturday, and they have the playmakers on offense and the stoppers on defense to pull off the upset. Texas clearly is lacking playmakers on offense, and they never should have beaten Oklahoma last week if it wasn't for so many costly turnovers by the Sooners. QB Blaine Gabbert has been as good if not better than Colt McCoy this season, throwing for 1,620 yards and 12 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Missouri is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. Texas is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The Longhorns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Take Missouri and the points.