Service Plays Saturday 10/24/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Saturday's Plays

10 Dime - WEST VIRGINIA
It's hard to think Connecticut will be in top shape to concentrate against a foe it struggles with following the violent death of junior cornerback Jasper Howard, who was stabbed to death hours after the Huskies' 38-25 win over Louisville last week.

This hasn't been a close series. Connecticut hasn't been able to match West Virginia's athleticism and speed. The Mountaineers have won and covered the past five by an average victory margin of 28 points. The Huskies lost 66-21 when they last visited Morgantown two years ago.

West Virginia's Noel Devine is one of the best running backs in the country. The Huskies actually held him to 60 yards on 17 carries last year at home, but still lost 35-13.

Now the Huskies have to travel with heavy hearts. West Virignia is 10-1 at home since last year. The Mountaineers just climbed back into the Top 25 following a 24-7 win last Saturday against Marshall.

The Mountaineers prevailed despite losing quarterback Jarrett Brown to a concussion on their first series. Brown practiced this week and should be a go. If not, backup quarterback Geno Smith is very talented, too. He was 15-for-21 in the win against Marshall replacing Brown.



10 Dime - TEXAS CHRISTIAN
This wasn't a good matchup for BYU last year when it lost 32-7 and it's not a good matchup this season for the Cougars.

TCU's defensive line is too quick for BYU's big but slow offensive line. The Horned Frogs' star defensive end Jerry Hughes had four of TCU's seven sacks of Max Hall last year. Hughes is having another big year this season with eight sacks, tied for fourth in the nation.

TCU ranks eighth in the nation in rushing defense. The Horned Frogs have yielded just three touchdowns on the ground. Hall could be missing two of his top wide receivers. McKay Jacobson (hamstring) isn't 100 percent and O'Neill Chambers has been battling the flu this week. Hall has been picked off 10 times this season.

The Horned Frogs' defense has been dominant holding their last four foes to 17 points or less, giving up a season-low yardage figure against three opponents. Going back to last year, TCU has heled 17 of its last 18 foes to 18 points or less.

TCU is 17-2 with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Dalton isn't flashy, but operates a balanced attack that has a solid run game, which sets up effective play-action passes.

BYU has covered just one of its past six home games. The Cougars are 3-9 against the spread following a win.



10 Dime - ANGELS -
The Yankees, Angels and Phillies are the three best teams in baseball. Unless there's a dominant ace going, the price should never be this high when these teams match up.

The value is with the Angels and that's the way I'm going trying to push my baseball winning streak to five straight games.

Before we get to the starting pitchers, Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte, let's discuss some other factors that point toward the Angels.

The Yankees are the ones feeling the pressure after not closing the deal on the West Coast during Game 5. Thoughts of their mammoth choke of 2004 have to be in the back of their mind. That was the last time New York reached the ALCS and it blew a 3-0 series lead to Boston in an epic meltdown.

The Angels come into New York loose and with renewed confidence. They have won 12 of their last 16 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times they've been in the plus $1.51-to-$2.00 range. The Angels are not a team to lay a big price against.

The weather is expected to be much warmer than it was during Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium. Rain and wind are expected, though. Bad weather elements usually are a negative for the favorite since it can add a randomness factor into the equation.

Saunders isn't the type of pitcher bothered by weather conditions, not being a West Coast guy. He pitched superbly in the cold weather in Game 2 holding the Yankees to two runs while pitching into the seventh inning. The Angels are 44-20 in Saunders' last 64 starts.

Pettitte has had trouble pitching this season at the new hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His home ERA was 4.59 compared to 3.61 on the road. The Angels have defeated Pettitte in six of the last seven times they've faced him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

20 Dime College Football trio

20 Dime: ARKANSAS (plus the points vs. Ole Miss) ... NOTE: This number is at 6 1/2 in a lot of spots, so I want you to buy the half-point with Arkansas and take that 6 1/2 up to 7, which is obviously a very key number in football.


20 Dime: KANSAS (plus the points vs. Oklahoma) ... NOTE: This number is jumping up to Oklahoma -8, so be sure to shop around and get that number. Do NOT settle for 7 1/2 if you don't have to!


20 Dime: WASHINGTON (plus the points vs. Oregon) ... NOTE: Be sure you AT LEAST get Washington at +10 in this game. There are plenty of spots out there where you can find +10, but if you absolutely cannot, then buy the half-point with Washington to take 9 1/2 up to 10.


Arkansas

Arkansas got completely hosed last week by that crappy SEC officiating crew, which called a bogus personal-foul penalty on the Razorbacks late in the game that allowed Florida to move into position to kick the game-winning field goal. It was a horrific call that the SEC admitted was wrong and it cost Arkansas a shot at a monumental upset win over the top-ranked team in the nation

The question now is, can the Razorbacks overcome that disappointment? Can they put aside the one negative and focus on the positive fact that they played the defending champs even-up all day and then take those positives into today’s game at Ole Miss? Obviously, I don’t have the definitive answer. However, I’ve always believed that 18- to 22-year-old college football players are a resilient bunch, and with a veteran coach like Bobby Petrino piloting Arkansas ship, let’s just say I like the Razorbacks’ chances to bounce back.

This much I do know, though: If Arkansas channels its anger and disappointment in the right direction, they’re winning this game against Ole Miss today. Because the Razorbacks are a better team, plain and simple.

Since suffering two tough SEC losses to Georgia (52-41) and Alabama (35-7), Arkansas has been playing tremendous football. First, it crushed then-unbeaten Texas A&M 47-19 as a two-point underdog in a neutral-site game in Dallas. Then the Hogs hammered then-unbeaten Auburn 44-23 as a 1½-point home underdog. Then last week, they went to Florida as a 24-point underdog and very, very easily could’ve pulled off the biggest shocker of this college football season.

The common thread in the last three games for Arkansas? The improved play of the defense. After yielding 87 points to Georgia and Alabama – their first two Division I-A opponents – the Razorbacks held Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida to an average of 21.7 ppg. Here’s how impressive that is: A&M, Auburn and Florida rank 19th, 12th and 11th in the nation in scoring offense, with each putting up between 33.2 points and 36.3 points per game! Those three explosive offenses combined for just seven touchdowns against Arkansas, only one of which came in the first half!

Today, the Hogs’ defense faces an Ole Miss offense that is incredibly overrated. See, the Rebels put up 45, 52 and 48 points against three non-conference opponents (Memphis, Southeast Louisiana and UAB). But in its three SEC games (South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Alabama), Ole Miss has averaged just 12 points and 280.7 yards per game. The Rebels lost two of those games – to South Carolina and Alabama – while producing a total of 445 yards.

Much was expected of Ole Miss – which at one point was ranked as high as #5 in the polls – because of the return of QB Jevan Snead, whom many predicted before the season would be a sure-fire first-round NFL Draft pick. Turns out, Snead is a fraud. Against his three SEC opponents, the 6-foot-3 junior posted completion percentages of 33.3 (South Carolina), 55.9 (Vanderbilt) and 32.4 (Alabama); passed for a total of 484 yards; and had four TD tosses against seven INTs.

Make no mistake, Snead will be the second-best quarterback on the field today. Arkansas’ Ryan Mallet is now the guy attracting the attention of pro scouts, as he’s taken to Petrino’s high-flying offense like a fish to water. He’s completing 55.1 percent of his throws for 274.3 yards per game with 14 TD strikes and just three picks. True, the Rebels’ pass defense is one of the best in the nation, and Mallet won’t have it easy today. But – BUT – Mallet is the best QB that Ole Miss has seen to this point in the season. Also, Mallet is backed by a rushing attack that’s averaging 172.3 yards over the last three games (4.7 per carry). That’s key, because, Ole Miss’ run defense has surrendered 200.3 rushing ypg (5.1 per carry) in its last three games.

Exactly one year ago, despite their overwhelming talent advantage and despite the fact the Razorbacks were in a transition year, the Rebels went to Arkansas and barely pulled out a 23-21 victory, failing to cover as a 6½-point road favorite. Prior to that, the Razorbacks had been on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with those four games decided by 32, 35, 11 and 32 points! Going back to 2001, Arkansas is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in this rivalry. On top of that, with last week’s easy spread-cover at Florida, the Razorbacks are now 7-2 ATS in their last Nine games as an underdog; they’ve cashed in six straight games in October (including last year’s cover vs. Ole Miss); and they’ve covered in four straight when getting between 3½ to 10 points.

Bottom line: Having faced Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida the last five weeks, there’s no question Arkansas has faced a brutal schedule. There’s also no question that said schedule has made the Razorbacks a very battle-tested squad. And with as poor as Ole Miss has played in its three SEC games (one of which was against crappy Vanderbilt), especially on offense, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an outright upset today. But we’ll play it safe and grab the generous points.


Kansas

I looked at this game Sunday night and asked myself one question: Where’s the motivation? Where’s the motivation for the Oklahoma Sooners to go on the road for the second straight week, once again without their first-string quarterback, and beat a quality Big 12 opponent by more than a touchdown?

I could not come up with a suitable answer. Because the Oklahoma Sooners are about playing for national championships. Short of that, they’re about playing for Big 12 championships and BCS Bowl games. But six games into the 2009 campaign, the Sooners sit at 3-3, and their lofty goals are in the toilet. Now, Oklahoma will be lucky to get into the Holiday Bowl.

Think this team, which battled Florida in last year’s BCS Championship Game back in Janurary and now finds itself at 3-3, is going to get fired up week to week in hopes of landing a berth in the freakin’ Holiday Bowl? Not a chance!

Now, I’ll admit that Oklahoma’s losses were against the three best teams on their schedule (BYU, Miami and Texas). It’s also true that the Sooners very easily could’ve won all three games, which were decided by 1 point (BYU), 1 point (Miami) and 3 points (Texas). And I won’t ignore the fact that OU’s three wins were all incredibly impressive (65-0, 45-0, 33-7). But the way in which they lost that Red River Rivalry game to Texas last week – Sam Bradford goes down in a heap yet again, this time just two series into the game, then backup QB Landry Jones throws two horrific INTs that sealed OU’s fate – I can’t help but think the Sooners will be extremely flat when they take the field at Kansas.

If that happens, Oklahoma could VERY easily swallow loss #4 today, because the Jayhawks are a quality football team. Yes, Kansas is coming off its own disappointing defeat (34-30 at lowly Colorado), but that was as classic of a look-ahead situation as I’ve ever seen. The Jayhawks came out thinking they would waltz over the Buffaloes and before they knew it, they were down 24-3 late in the first half, and although the Jayhawks did mount a rally, it came up just short. Although we’ll never know, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if coach Mark Mangino spent a chunk of prep team during Colorado week working on Oklahoma.

Before getting clipped at Colorado, Kansas had won seven consecutive games, and it comes into this one still averaging 38.8 points and 502.3 total yards per game, figures that rank fifth and second in the nation. With Bradford out for Oklahoma, the Jayhawks without question clearly have the better quarterback on the field in senior Todd Reesing. He enters today as the nation’s third-leading passer at 330 yards per game, and he’s completing 67 percent of his passes for 329.8 yards per game with 15 TDs (tied for third in the nation) and just four INTs.

Last year in Norman, Okla., Reesing had a banner day against a VERY good Sooner defense, going 24-for-41 for 342 yards and two TDs (though he did also get picked twice). Because of Reesing, the Jayhawks were able to hang with the Sooners the entire game – it was actually a seven-point game midway through the third quarter – and although Kansas eventually lost 45-31, it covered as a 19-point underdog. Keep in mind: That was a much better, much more focused Oklahoma team than the one the Jayhawks will face today. Keep in mind also that last year’s game was in Norman; this one is in Lawrence, Kan., where Kansas is 18-2 since October 2006.

Including last year’s non-cover against the Jayhawks, Oklahoma is 0-2 ATS the last two years after facing Texas, and the Sooners are now just 3-4 SU (1-4-1 ATS in lined games) since losing to Florida in the national championship game. Meanwhile, Kansas is on ATS runs of 13-6 at home and 24-10 overall.

Simply put, if the Jayhawks’ inconsistent offensive line can hold up against Oklahoma’s fierce pass rush and protect Reesing, Kansas will hang in this one from start to finish and challenge for the outright win. But even if the Sooners are ahead by two scores late, I have complete faith that Kansas’ quick-strike offense can get us at least a backdoor cover. Take the points.


Washington

When the line on this game was released Sunday and I saw Oregon as a six-point favorite, I put a checkmark above Washington’s name as I thought the number was a tad high.. Then the days passed and the number kept going up – Oregon -7, Oregon -7½, Oregon -8½, Oregon -9 – and I could not believe my eyes. As soon as it hit 10 on Thursday, it was a lock that Washington would part of my Saturday card.

Guys, I’ve been around this industry for well over a decade, and therefore I have seen my share of line moves that have stumped me. But I cannot remember the last time I saw a college football number jump four full points over the course of a week without injuries or suspensions driving the line move. What exactly am I missing here?

Washington owns three solid wins over Idaho (not a bad team at all), USC and Arizona, all at home. And with the exception of a 34-14 loss at Stanford (I used Stanford as my 20 Dime Best Bet that day because the Huskies were in a HUGE flat spot coming off the USC win), Washington was competitive in its other three losses. The Huskies not only were able to hang with LSU in their season opener – losing 31-23 as a 17-point ‘dog – but they outgained LSU 478-321. They also took Notre Dame to overtime on the road (losing 37-30) and went to Arizona State last Saturday had were tied 17-17 before giving up a fluke 50-yard TD pass with five seconds left to play to lose 24-17.

As for Oregon, yeah, it is riding a five-game winning streak (4-0 ATS in the last four) since that embarrassing season-opening loss at Boise State. But other than a very, VERY impressive 42-3 rout of then-undefeated Cal at home on Sept. 26, what have the Ducks done? They barely defeated Purdue (38-36) and Utah (31-24) at home; they destroyed Washington State at home (52-6), but the Cougars are a joke (hence the reason Oregon was a 35-point favorite in that contest); and finally, two weeks ago, they went to UCLA and won 24-10 as a three-point favorite.

In that game against the Bruins, though, the Ducks got three gift touchdowns in the span of four minutes: the first was a kickoff return for a score to start the second half; the second was a pick-six on the first play after the ensuing kickoff; and the third was the direct result of a fumble recovery on UCLA’s next series, and that led to a short, easy Ducks touchdown. Take those three gifts away, and Oregon would’ve had 3 points!

Now, I will cop to a major fundamental mismatch in this game – and it HAS to be the reason why this line has skyrocketed: Oregon runs the football as well as any team in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 per carry, while the Huskies’ run D has been shaky (162.4 rushing ypg allowed, 5.1 per carry). Well, here comes the “yeah, but …” Yeah, but Washington has been much better against the run recently, yielding just 118 ypg and 4.1 per carry the last three weeks. Signs of improvement, I’d say. Also, against USC, the Huskies got out-rushed by 194 yards (250-56), and yet still found a way to pull off the stunning upset as a 20½-point ‘dog.

Finally, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I love Washington QB Jake Locker. The guy is a bona-fide difference-maker, and with him on the field, the Huskies are never out of any game. Locker, now projected by some experts to be the top quarterback taken in next year’s NFL Draft should the he forego his senior season, has thrown for 1,702 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs, while adding 223 rushing yards and four more TDs on the ground. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, I know, but you just have to watch Locker play. He’s got all the intangibles you love about a quarterback. The guy just makes plays, and he’ll make plays today against Oregon’s defense, mark my words.

Bottom line: The guys who have been loading up on Oregon and driving this number all the way up to 10 apparently have forgotten three very important pieces of information: 1) Washington has been competitive in every one of its home games this year, winning the last three outright; 2) This is just the third road game all year for Oregon, and with the exception of that four-minute stretch at the start of the second half at UCLA two weeks ago, the Ducks didn’t look all that hot in the first two; and 3) Oregon is in a big-time look-ahead spot because next week, the Ducks get USC at home in Eugene – and you know the players will have the Trojans on their minds today as that’s the de-facto Pac-10 Championship Game.

Throw in a legitimate revenge situation – Washington has dropped five straight meetings in this rivalry, all by 20 points or more, going 0-5 ATS – and I’m all over Steve Sarkisian and his improving Huskies in this one

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2-Minute Warning

Saturday's Play 10

Dime Consensus Club

Washington

 

[szlem]

winningway sports/fina
John's Saturday Night College Football Game of the Year

5*michigan state

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gold Sheet

top: Ind, af,
reg: W mich, ok st, wash, stan

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Asa

3 af
3 mich
3 aub

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sammy Jankus Reverse Barometer

I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.


Texas A&M at Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET

3* (351) TEXAS A&M (+21.5)

You are so gonna hate me for doing this but I can’t pass up a bonafide gift-horse BLOWOUT. The Red Raiders have won and covered three straight in dominating fashion while the Maggots have pulled a reverse hat-trick… three whippings courtesy of a ‘defense’ that was gashed for 48 PPG in those losses, including an unthinkable 62 points to Kansas State! Red Raider head coach Mike Leach has rallied his team nicely after back-to-back losses to Texas and Houston, and they’re once again playing like a team that smells blood. I think Texas Tech will batter, shatter, cream and ream the hapless visitors en route to a 35-point demolition – so your play is on TEXAS A&M.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

5dimesports 10/24

5 DIME PLAY OF THE DAY

TCU @ BYU

7:30p.m. Saturday

5 Dime Play Of The Day Take TCU -2.5 To say the least this will be a fun game to watch. TCU's explosive defensive speed will be a major play in this game and will pressure QB Max Hall. Not to mention Hall has thrown 10 interceptions to go along with his 16 TD passes. Playing against the number 3 defense will cause Hall to be tentative in the pocket and force throws. TCU is ranked 8 against the pass allowing only 156.8 passing yards per game. Looking at TCU's offense we have QB Andy Dalton with 8 TD passes and 3 Int's. Then to top it off TCU has Joesph Turner (RB) who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and owns 7 TDs. BYU is ranked 90th against the pass and 21st against the run. Looking at the score of two games that both team have played the same team (Colorado St.). TCU beat them 44-6, while BYU beat them 42-23. TCU is only allowing 13.6 points per game, while BYU is allowing 22.7 points per game. BYU is also beat up at the momment with 6 players either out indefinitely or out for the season and 6 players questionable for Saturday's game. TCU has 3 players questionable for Saturday that wont have any impact on the game. I predict this game to be close in the beginning, maybe even be down early, but the defense will prevail and come through in the end.

Trends I like

BYU is 4-21 ATS after a 2 game road trip since 1992
BYU is 1-9 ATS after playing a conference game over the L2 seasons
BYU is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the L2 seasons
TCU is 7-0 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the L2 seasons
TCU is 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L2 seasons

 

[bobygaleana]

Winning way sports (john finna)

Free Pick:

WASHINGTON HUSKIES + 10
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]John's Saturday Night College Football Game of the Year!!!

[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]ANYONE?.......tNXS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PHILLY-CONNECTION
Hot-Ticket(Pow)
4*(cfb)#384 Mich.St-1

 

[Topgun68]

Kelso:

100 unit South Carolina
15 unit Oklahoma State
5 unit Air Force
4 unit Nebraska
3 unit Boise State
Root:
10 * Michigan State
6* Clemson
4* Viriginia
GOY BYU

 

[SuperSeanpicks]

Anyone

Who has David Banks plays that would be cool. Seems like a good person to fade from what I can tell.

Thanks in advance

 

[Pepi]

Deano

He hasn't lost yet this year in college.... GOODLUCK!!!! <<



HRC PREMIUM CFB PLAY October 24th

Thank You For Your Purchase!

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Betting Session: Follow Units posted (*Varies*)

-=HIGH ROLLER CLUB PREMIUM ACTION=-

Last Posted Play: Winner

*************************************
-=Straight Wager=-

Today's Premium Pick: Idaho
Today's Odds: +15.5
Unit(s): 5*

Today's Premium Pick: Oregon
Today's Odds: -9.5
Unit(s): 5*
*************************************
Number of times a unit is played:
2* 2-0
5* 5-0
8* 1-0
10* 1-0

Record: 13-0

 

[jagwood]

Computer Crushers
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of SPORTS is now 52-26 run for 67%! You can get our SEC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR for only $35 and YOU WILL BE A WINNER or there will be no charged! 10/23/2009

SEC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
348 Alabama -13.5 3:30 EST



Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: The COLLEGE CRUSHER PLAYS are by far the STRONGEST PLAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 65% the past 23 years! Today we are featuring our PAC 10 CONFERENCE CRUSHER GAME OF THE YEAR! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you pay only after you win! This is by far the STRONGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY ON THIS WEB SITE DO NOT MISS IT! 10/22/2009

PAC 10 CONFERENCE CRUSHER GAME OF THE YEAR
398 USC -21 8:00 EST



Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: The COLLEGE CRUSHER PLAYS are by far the STRONGEST PLAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 65% the past 23 years! Today we are featuring our WAC CONFERENCE CRUSHER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $35 and you pay only after you win! This is by far the STRONGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY ON THIS WEB SITE DO NOT MISS IT! 10/21/2009

WAC CONFERENCE CRUSHER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR
391 Fresno St -23.5 10:15 EST

 

[JDizzle311]

Sam Clayton

25 dime - Oregon/Washington Under 55

With everybody trying to decide whether to lay the chalk with Oregon or back the home dog getting double digits, I'll exploit the best play in this game -- the under. The Ducks come off a bye week ready to attack the Huskies, although the status of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is still up in the air. Oregon's offense was noticeably shaky after Masoli left the Ducks' last game against UCLA with a knee injury.

Backup Nate Costa was average at best, completing 9 of 17 passes for 82 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and the Ducks had to look elsewhere for scores. Luckily, the defensive and special teams units answered the call as Oregon returned both a kickoff and an interception to the house. I believe Masoli will play, but I question his effectiveness and ability to be a dual-threat with a banged up knee. And it's no secret that the Oregon offense has struggled mightily on the road this season, having only scored two offensive touchdowns away from Eugene. Rather than run the risk of getting into a shootout with a questionable Masoli, their strategy should be more about controlling the ball on the ground with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, and keeping Jake Locker off of the field as much as possible.

Washington will have their hands full on offense as Locker and Co. square off against an impressive Oregon defense that held Boise State to 19 points and UCLA to 10 (both efforts resulted in road wins). The Ducks also held Jahvid Best and the high-octane offense of Cal to a measly three points last month. I believe the intensity and physicality of today's game will be very, very similar to the USC/UW game earlier in the season. Hopefully, Oregon has studied film from that game and will build from the Trojans' mistakes. The battle for field position will be front and center and Oregon has to make Washington start their drives from within their own 20. Ducks head coach Chip Kelly saw what Locker did in shootouts against Notre Dame and Arizona and you have to believe he's been brewing up something special to contain the Huskie quarterback at all costs.

15 dime - Illinois +11

One of the biggest moneymakers this season has been fading Illinois. The once-promising, once Fightin' Illini had high expectations coming into this season and just like every other year the bar has been set too high, they've foundered. Ron Zook's boys (1-5, 0-4 Big Ten) are the most disappointing bunch in the entire conference and they haven't covered a single game all season (0-6 ATS). However, not once before today did I think that Vegas underestimated the Illini.

Ohio State was three touchdowns better than Illinois spread wise and in their last two home games, it was laughable that the Illini were only single digit dogs against Penn State (+8) and Michigan State (+4). They went on to lose by 18 and 10 respectively. Against Purdue though, I'm taking this bloated 11 point spread and running like hell. Both teams are horseshit, but the average bettor sees the Boilermakers' win last week over Ohio State and thinks "well, they should trounce Illinois." Not so fast. Purdue has just one more victory this season than the Illini and outside of the opening game against Toledo, they've been brutal as home favorites. As 12-point favorites versus Northern Illinois, Purdue lost 28-21 and two weeks later, they lost 27-21 against Northwestern as a touchdown favorite.

I've followed Illinois more than most and their record also isn't indicative of their extremely difficult schedule as four of six losses came against very solid teams (MIZZOU, OSU, MSU and PSU). Several Big Ten coaches still believe that the Illini are one of if not the most athletic team in the conference, but its their lack of execution that's killing them. The Boilermakers are far from a good defensive team and with dangerous weapons like Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson lining up for Illinois, anything can happen. Purdue should win this game, but after blowing their load last weekend against the Buckeyes, it's all about playing the undervalued, underappreciated pup.

 

[halo5]

MercurySports Georgia Tech-5.5, W. Virginia-7.5, Nebraska-20, N.Illinois-11, Miami-4.5

 

[FalconPhan]

the boss

500% "UNTOUCHABLE BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE YEAR" NORTHERN ILLINOIS

300% "BOOKIE BUSTER BLOWOUT PARLAY" BOISE ST, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS

200% "DOG POUND" MINNESOTA

100% "SILENT ASSASSINS" OREGON, SOUTHERN MISS, TEXAS TECH
__________________

 

[icethekicker]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL (note: 10-2 on 4* Best Bets)

4* Best Bet = South Carolina
3* = Idaho
3* = Stanford
2* = Arkansas
2* = Indiana

 

[icethekicker]

Chris Jordan Saturday's winners ...


400♦ ARIZONA WILDCATS - Despite the line movement toward UCLA – two points from -9 since it opened – I can’t imagine anyone endorsing the Bruins, who look like an absolute mess after losing three straight. They’ve given up an average of 31 points in all three losses and come into this one with one of the most anemic offenses in the nation.

That can’t be any good since Arizona has revealed one of the nation’s best young quarterbacks in Nick Foles. He’s 17th in the nation in pass efficiency and 48th overall in total offense. Truth be known, the Wildcats have put together one of the best offenses in the Pac 10 thanks to Foles, whose numbers are astonishing if you as me (1,152 yards passing, Nine touchdowns, just two interceptions, and he’s completed 73.9 percent of his passes this season).

With Foley’s emergence, the Wildcats are as balanced as any other offense in college football, as their running game remains effective with three all-conference caliber rushers coming out of the backfield. That includes Nic Grigsby, who appears to be fully healthy; trust me when I tell you UCLA’s defense will have its hands full today with the 79th-ranked rushing offense. Remember, it’s the rushing game that sets up the passing game.

Bottom line is UCLA is terrible on offense and only slightly better on the other side of the ball. And with this game being played in Arizona, I can’t give the Bruins much of a chance to stop the bleeding.

Not when they’ve dropped four of their last five in conference play. They’re also mired in losing streaks of 2-6 as an underdog, 2-5 against winning teams and 0-4 in October.

And to go along with that 11-5 ATS stat I mentioned on the front end of this package, the Wildcats are on a 9-3 ATS run at home, while the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings and the favorite is on an 8-3 spread streak in this series.

100♦ DUKE BLUE DEVILS - This victory starts and ends with the turnover.

Duke, which is 3-3 on the year and has thoughts of playing in a bowl for the first time in 15 years, ranks 28th in the nation in turnover margin and the Terrapins are damn near the worst in the nation, ranking 118th. And gauging from Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen’s tirade about turnovers this past week, I’d have to say the Blue Devils are clearly at an advantage in this ACC clash.

Though its rushing game is non-existent, Duke has the eighth-best pass attack in the country and 28th-ranked scoring offense, which is putting up 31.83 points per game. Maryland can’t hang with that, and when the Terps look to play catch-up with their rather anemic offense, they’ll likely commit mistakes that will result in turnovers.

I know the Terps have pulled off two wins this season, but this is one of the worst defenses in the country in all facets of the game. They rank near the bottom of the ACC in scoring offense (22.9 points per game), scoring defense (33.7 ppg.), rushing offense (100.7 yards per game) and rushing defense (158.3 ypg), and are worst in the ACC with 20 turnovers.

Bottom line with the Devils is they’ve improved in every area imaginable on the gridiron under second-year coach David Cutliffe. This team seems better prepared for games, it executes much better, it’s putting up much better numbers than in the past and it really is the most formidable team and promising Blue Devils team to get to the postseason.

Thus, covering a five-point spread against one of the worst teams in the nation with a lame-duck coach shouldn’t be a problem. Lay the home chalk with the Blue Devils.

 

[icethekicker]

tony weston 10/24

SATURDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime Oregon
10 Dime Iowa
5 Dime Angels-Yankees Over

Oregon at Washington
OREGON - Right now Oregon is playing better than any team in the Pac-10 and is on track to win the conference.

After a heartbreaking loss on the road at Boise State to start the season, losing 19-8 as a 3 1/2 point underdog, the Ducks have gone 5-0 SU and have covered in 4 straight coming into today’s game.

On this four-game stretch Oregon has beaten its opponents by an average of 26.5 points per game and now gets a shot at a Washington team that’s gone just 1-3 SU its last 4 games and has covered in just 2 of its last 4 games.

But where the real money has been made is when these two have faced each other.

Since 2004 the Ducks have gone a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS against the Huskies, beating them by an average of 24.8 points per game.

When these two played last year, the Ducks cruised to a 34-point victory, beating Washington 44-10 as a 14-point favorite.

Oregon will do it again and make it 6 in a row against the Huskies.



Iowa at Michigan State
IOWA - Who would’ve figured Iowa would be leading the Big Ten and be a perfect 7-0 SU more than midway through the season?

Well, here the Hawkeyes are, still undefeated.

Iowa has covered in 4 of its 6 lined games this season and travels to take on Michigan State and is installed as a slight 1 1/2 point underdog, depending on where you’re playing this. But it won’t matter because the Hawkeyes will get the outright win.

The Spartans come into this game just 4-3 SU and only 3-3 ATS so far this season and is coming off a non-cover last week at home against visiting Northwestern.

Recently, in this series the smart money has been on Iowa, which has gone 6-1 ATS its last 7 meetings against the Spartans, including covers in 3 straight games. Also, in this series the Underdog has gone 5-2 ATS the last 7 meetings, including each of the last two years where the Hawkeyes covered as a ’dog.

Iowa will do it again and get over on the Spartans in this one.



Yankees-Angels Total
OVER - The Total for tonight’s Game 6 of the ALCS is set at around 9 runs up from the last 2 games of this series. It won’t matter because that won’t be enough runs and I’m taking full advantage.

After staying Under the total in the first two games of the American League Championship Series, the teams played to a Push in Game 3, but combined for 9 runs. Then in Game 4 on Tuesday, the teams exploded for 11 runs, going well Over the 8 1/2 run total. In Game 5, the teams, once again, scored in bunches, putting up 13 runs, blowing well past the 8 1/2 run Total.

Including the last two games, these teams have seen the Over go 9-5-1 in their last 15 meetings this season. Going back a little further, the Over has gone 19-9-1 the last 29 meetings between these two and it has come in 5 straight times in which Yankees scheduled starter Andy Pettitte takes the mound at home against the Angels.

Consider, too, the Over has been the smart play when Anaheim scheduled starter Joe Saunders takes the mound.

The Over has come in 16 of Saunders’ last 22 starts and it is 8-3 his last 11 on the road. The Over is also on a 9-3-1 run when Saunders faces the AL East.

These two will score in bunches once again tonight and go well Over the Total.