Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Saturday
CFB: 29-13 ATS (+57.30)
8:00 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION
Missouri +4½ over TEXAS
Most assumed this big-time Big 12 showdown would feature an unbeaten Tigers team vs. a Longhorns team coming off a tough loss, but few thought it’d be Missouri who’d be tagged with the defeat. Still, this should be the game of the day between 2 of the best teams in the country.
The Tigers might have lost to Oklahoma State last week, but they can quickly make amends by beating the #1 team in the land to get back in the national championship hunt. If Mizzou wins out, it’ll almost certainly be playing for the national title, so everything is still in front of the Tigers.
Texas beat Oklahoma last week in, arguably, the best game of the year, but that was a mere appetizer compared to the second half of the season coming up for the Longhorns.
This looks to be a shootout with two leading Heisman candidates, Chase Daniel of Missouri and Colt McCoy of Texas, and should be every bit as good as it would’ve been had it been #1 vs. #2.
Somewhat lost in the stunned euphoria of the Texas win over Oklahoma was the play of the secondary. It came though big-time in the second half, but it still got ripped to shreds overall by Sam Bradford. Brian Orakpo and the Texas defensive front did a great job of getting into the backfield, but Daniel is more mobile than Bradford, who’s hardly a stick in the mud.
How well will Texas handle success is a big question, as is how well will Mizzou deal with being knocked off its pedestal. Both teams are for real, but now the pressure is all on the burnt orange side of the field. Daniel isn’t going to have two mediocre games in a row, and the Missouri linebacking corps will plug the passing game holes McCoy found open last week when star Ryan Reynolds tore up his knee. The Tigers are actually the better team and should be favored according to our Power Ratings.
This gives us a golden opportunity to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite not in a “get-up” situation.
If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public.
Here, we get the underdog in a big “get-up” situation and the favorite in a big “let-down” spot.
Missouri is 4-0 SU (+23.2 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+18.2 ppg) off a SU loss since 2006, while Texas is 0-5 ATS (-12.4 ppg) as a favorite of less than 25 points vs. opponents off a favorite SU loss. The Tigers are also 8-0 ATS on the road vs. opponents off 2 SU & ATS wins, and 10-0 ATS (+16.8 ppg) since 1994 with 5+ days rest and not a dog of 23+ points vs. opponents off an underdog SU win.
Our database research shows Missouri in a very strong position here to bounce back off last week’s loss. The qualify as a PLAY ON team for several strong NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS of ours, including one that demonstrates how after blowing a perfect season as a big home favorite, teams have recovered quite nicely in the role of road underdog against conference foes. Specifically:
From Game 4 on, play ON a conference road underdog of less than 19 points/pick ‘em off a home SU loss as a home favorite of 7+ points and its first SU loss of the season.
Teams in this role have been perfect since at least 1981, going 22-0 ATS, while beating the spread by more than a TD on average.
Another handicapping strategy is to play AGAINST a Top 10 team off a win over another Top 10 opponent. The winning team likely expended more energy and effort to pull of the victory in a big game. They will have little left in their emotional or physical tanks. Meanwhile, their opponent will be fired up knowing they are facing one of the top teams in the country. In this case, Missouri gets to face THE top team in the country, while the Longhorns simply won’t be able to duplicate last week’s effort and emotion.
Indeed, we have another POWER SYSTEM revealing that unbeaten teams off an underdog victory against another unbeaten foe have had very little left as a favorite of less than 3 TDs. Texas is active for this POWER SYSTEM that advises:
From Game 5 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of less than 20 points off an underdog SU win against an unbeaten foe vs. an opponent not off 6 SU wins this season. Since 1996, these teams have gone 0-12-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average! We already used this system once in a top-rated STAR SELECTION play with Kentucky over Alabama, as the WildCats lost but covered the spread by double digits.
Many will be afraid to fade the Longhorns here, as they are a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the season; however, unbeaten favorites without a spread loss have hit a wall in their 7th game. Since at least 1980, no favorite of 16 points or less with a 6-0 SU & ATS mark has made it to 7-0 SU & ATS. Six teams have tried and six teams have failed, losing 5 of the 6 outright, while failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
The Longhorns played a great game last week and handed us another top-rated STAR SELECTION winner, but they left it on the field at the Cotton Bowl and will not have enough left in the tank for an angry bunch of Tigers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 35 TEXAS 27
12:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2 over Western Michigan
The battle for the MAC West really gets going on Saturday with the Broncos, 4-0 in conference play, and the Chippewas, 3-0 in MAC action, take the field to renew a rivalry.
Western Michigan has been shaky at times, needing a comeback and overtime last week to get by Buffalo, but they’ve won six straight thanks to strong line play and a tremendous season from QB Tim Hiller.
"We got lucky, we know that, but it was a real good gut-check by our kids," Head coach Bill Cubit said.
Central Michigan is finishing up the end of a three-game homestand before getting to play Toledo and Northern Illinois on the road. The Chippewas passing attack isn’t all that bad, either, as QB Dan LeFevour has been tremendous throwing the ball, and his backup, Brian Brunner, was fine when he had to fill in. In a game that should be tight, and should be changed on a big play, the punt return ability of the Chips’ Antonio Brown could be a major difference. Central Michigan and Brown are second in the nation in punt returns averaging 22.6 yards per try.
The books opened this game with Central Michigan as a 3½-point favorite; however, the public, enamored by Western’s win streak has moved this line to the point where the Broncos are a road favorite. This plays right into some of our favored handicapping strategies.
First, we look to play AGAINST a team that is being favored by “normal” line moves. Normal line moves occur from the end of the early period until an hour or two before gametime. These moves occur almost exclusively because of money. Whereas lines can move a full point or more very quickly during the early movement period, they have a tendency to creep in one direction or the other during the normal movement period, often at different paces in different places. This is where the public is influential - oftentimes a thousand $20 bets can push a line ½ point, as opposed to the early period when large wagers are the line movers. Here, books are trying to attract money to the unpopular side. When books respond to one-sided betting by steadily moving a line in one direction they are risking the house's worst nightmare - being sided or middled. So, when a line is slowly adjusted during the normal period, it is done with some risk for the bookmaker. Thus, lines will not move unless one of two factors occurs: The linesmaker is getting extremely one sided action or the linesmaker is reasonably sure the game won't finish right on or between the numbers. Normal line moves are therefore important to note because they offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting and, thus, which side to avoid.
In our estimation, the books are confident that the Chippewas will win this game and by more than a field goal, which is they opened up a half-point ABOVE that key number.
Secondly, we look to play ON a team that opened as a favorite a half-point higher than a “key number”, such as a -3' or -7'-point favorite, especially -3'. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point higher than the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the underdog can lose by X (the key number in question) points and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the favored team will often win and cover easily in these cases. If the line has moved down to the key number or below after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the underdog, especially if the line move did not happen a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the favorite without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. If the spread doesn't move, the investor should "line shop" in an effort to find a key number. If he can't find one, ultimately a half-point should only be bought if the spread is at -3'. Here, the line swing has provided us with tremendous value.
Western knows they were lucky last week, and when teams know they’ve been more lucky than good, the gig is about up. The Broncos have faded after playing extra sessions before, as they are 0-3 ATS with less than 13 days rest off overtime games since 1999, while Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS since 2003 vs. opponents off OT games.
On the road off an overtime victory, teams like Central Michigan have nothing left under the conditions described by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
In Games 2-9, play AGAINST a road team (not an underdog of more than 4 points) off an OT SU win (not a favorite of 14+ points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off 2 conference road underdog SU losses.
Since 1997, which is shortly after OT went into effect for college football, these teams are a shocking 0-28 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
Meanwhile, we get to jump on a Chippewas team that is very strong at home, going 7-0-1 ATS (+12.6 ppg) as host when not favored by 7+ points. They also qualify for another POWER SYSTEM that instructs:
Play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 6 points) off 2 home SU wins.
Just since 2004, these teams are 15-0-1 ATS, blasting the spread by 11 ppg on average.
Being a home dog will certainly get Central’s attention here, and we look for them to take charge of this game early and hold off the Broncos, as the Chippewas win this game by at least a TD.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 WESTERN MICHIGAN 23
12:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
SOUTH FLORIDA -24 over Syracuse
The Bulls’ first bye of the season couldn’t have come at a better time, as South Florida is now rested coming off their first loss of the season, a crushing home defeat to Pittsburgh in a nationally televised mid-week game. Injuries were also beginning to mount. A week away from live action gave the Bulls a chance to regroup, refocus, and get healthy. While the margin for error in the Big East has narrowed, South Florida knows it’ll be in the hunt if it can shake off its only loss of the season.
On the opposite spectrum is the Orange, which will need an upset over the final six games just to avoid a second one-win season in the last four years. Actually, Syracuse has been competitive in the last two Big East games, including a 17-6 loss to West Virginia Saturday, but has yet to play four strong quarters. Syracuse fans are already looking forward to the school naming a new coach, as Greg Robinson has been an absolute disaster.
This game figures to get ugly early. On both sides of the ball, South Florida simply has too much speed and athleticism for the plodding Orange, and there will be no chance that the Bulls will be anything but 100% focused here. With more weapons than at any time in his career, QB Matt Grothe will get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, such as RB Mike Ford and receivers Jessie Hester and Taurus Johnson. Up front, South Florida will school a flimsy Syracuse offensive line and get constant pressure on QB Cameron Dantley. If he forces throws into coverage, the instinctive Bulls secondary will make him pay in the form of batted balls and interceptions.
Syracuse is the ideal sacrificial lamb for South Florida to get back on track. We expect Grothe to spark the offense with his arm and legs, and the defense to create a bunch of short-field opportunities with turnovers and three-and-outs.
The numbers certainly back us up here, as Syracuse is:
0-17 ATS (-11.9 ppg) in losses with less than 13 days rest against opponents off a conference SU loss;
0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) with less than 13 days rest as an underdog of 16-36 points;
0-5 ATS from as an underdog of 4+ points off 2 ATS wins since 2004 , while South Florida is 3-0 SU (+28.7 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) in the reverse role.
With South Florida here, we get the opportunity to play ON a good team in the “meat” of the season that needs a victory more than its opponent.
A peak performance can be expected from a good team with realistic conference title and/or postseason expectations that is struggling and in danger of falling out of contention. When such a team is ready to play with some urgency, they will hold nothing back in their attempt to get back on track.
South Florida is:
3-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) vs. Syracuse all-time;
3-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) in the regular season off a home SU loss the last 3 seasons, while the Orange went 0-3 ATS in the reverse role last season.
The Bulls are also 4-0 SU (+19 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+14 ppg) in Saturday home/neutral site games with rest over the past several seasons. Syracuse is 0-4 SU & ATS vs. opponents with rest since the start of last year.
Teams back at home after losing a highlighted non-Saturday home game have made the most of the opportunity as demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
Play ON a home team off a non-Saturday home SU loss (not an underdog of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off a non-lined home SU win. These teams are 10-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than 11 points per game on average.
Also, after a shocking home loss to a conference foe, rested teams back at home have been more than ready to pounce on another conference opponent. This is revealed by another POWER SYSTEM that advises:
Play ON a conference home team with 7+ days rest off a conference home SU loss as a favorite of 9+ points.
Since 1984, these teams are a perfect 13-0 ATS, hammering the spread by nearly 18 ppg on average!
The Bulls qualify for both PLAY ON situations here and should rampage to an easy SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 42 SYRACUSE 3
3:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
VIRGINIA +4½ over North Carolina
The Tar Heels are hot as the travel on Saturday to take on a Cavaliers team that is also starting to warm up. After beating Notre Dame in a classic, North Carolina is beginning to get national recognition and now find themselves as a sizeable road favorite against an ACC rival. Butch Davis has the Tar Heels way ahead of schedule, ranked #18 in the latest AP poll and still in the hunt in the ACC Coastal.
The win over the Irish, however, came at a price. Brandon Tate, the team’s multi-dimensional threat, was a lost for the year with a knee injury, a stiff blow to the offense and the special teams.
All the talk of Al Groh’s demise may have been greatly exaggerated. He’s got Virginia playing its best football of the season right now, blowing past Maryland and East Carolina in consecutive contests. Credit the coaching staff for getting the program to 500 and turning around a season that appeared to be beyond repair in September. With a win here, the ‘Hoos can start seriously talking about bowl eligibility, and we like their chances.
It took a while, but the Cavalier defense has finally started to come around, pressuring the quarterback and limiting the big plays that were prevalent in the early going. Virginia is now second in the ACC in sacks and has held the last three opponents under 100 yards in rushing. When Carolina isn’t getting help from the defense and special teams, the 91st-ranked offense has had trouble scoring and sustaining drives. Without Tate on the field, the ‘Heels could really stall here.
Coming off an emotional win over Notre Dame, North Carolina will have its hands full with a resurgent Virginia squad. As it is, the Tar Heels were outgained 472-322 in total offense, but they held the Irish to only 89 yards rushing and forced five turnovers. The Heels had no turnovers after recovering their only fumble. They certainly can’t expect to have similar luck here.
North Carolina's victory over Notre Dame will have no bearing on the fortunes of the Tar Heels in the ACC race, of course, but it was a big win.
"It means a lot to this program," junior wide receiver Hakeen Nicks. "All of the players are fired up, the coaches are fired up. Guys really gave it their all and put it all on the line."
It will be very hard to re-focus for this game against a very determined Virginia team. We like to play AGAINST a team off a game in which they lost statistically but won the contest, which is the case with North Carolina. The public looks little beyond the final score and does not examine the stats, so a team off such a win will often be overpriced in their next game. Our Power Ratings indicate that the wrong team is favored here, showing just how over-priced the Tar Heels are right now.
It certainly won’t be a comfortable spotlight for North Carolina, as they are 0-5 ATS as a conference favorite of 3+ points since 2004.
As noted, they are also likely to be flat following their win over the Irish. After a home victory over Notre Dame, teams have had a hard time getting focused for a conference foe. Over the past 20 seasons, from Game 6 on, conference teams not getting 20+ points off a home SU win against Notre Dame are 0-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 16 ppg on average!
Meanwhile, with Virginia, we can play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games.
Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. These teams should be ones in which there wasn’t much expected anyway, as they’re in a rebuilding mode. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them.
Groh certainly has his players attention right now, as will this pointspread, as Virginia is 11-0 ATS (+15.8 ppg) as a home underdog of less than 20 points and not seeking revenge for a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss, scoring less than 11 points last season.
Finally, our database research shows that teams back at home with a tight line off 2 home victories have been very strong in recent seasons. Virginia qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 6 points) off 2 home SU wins.
Since 2004, these teams are 15-0-1 ATS, besting the spread by 11 ppg on average.
The Cavaliers should continue to roll, while the Tar Heels hit a snag as a flat, over-priced road favorite and are unable to match the emotion of the underdog hosts who should win this game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA 28 NORTH CAROLINA 21
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CFB: 29-13 ATS (+57.30)
8:00 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION
Missouri +4½ over TEXAS
Most assumed this big-time Big 12 showdown would feature an unbeaten Tigers team vs. a Longhorns team coming off a tough loss, but few thought it’d be Missouri who’d be tagged with the defeat. Still, this should be the game of the day between 2 of the best teams in the country.
The Tigers might have lost to Oklahoma State last week, but they can quickly make amends by beating the #1 team in the land to get back in the national championship hunt. If Mizzou wins out, it’ll almost certainly be playing for the national title, so everything is still in front of the Tigers.
Texas beat Oklahoma last week in, arguably, the best game of the year, but that was a mere appetizer compared to the second half of the season coming up for the Longhorns.
This looks to be a shootout with two leading Heisman candidates, Chase Daniel of Missouri and Colt McCoy of Texas, and should be every bit as good as it would’ve been had it been #1 vs. #2.
Somewhat lost in the stunned euphoria of the Texas win over Oklahoma was the play of the secondary. It came though big-time in the second half, but it still got ripped to shreds overall by Sam Bradford. Brian Orakpo and the Texas defensive front did a great job of getting into the backfield, but Daniel is more mobile than Bradford, who’s hardly a stick in the mud.
How well will Texas handle success is a big question, as is how well will Mizzou deal with being knocked off its pedestal. Both teams are for real, but now the pressure is all on the burnt orange side of the field. Daniel isn’t going to have two mediocre games in a row, and the Missouri linebacking corps will plug the passing game holes McCoy found open last week when star Ryan Reynolds tore up his knee. The Tigers are actually the better team and should be favored according to our Power Ratings.
This gives us a golden opportunity to play ON an underdog getting between a FG & TD of points in line value when comparing the pointspread to Power Ratings if the team is not in a “let-down” situation and the favorite not in a “get-up” situation.
If the underdog has been fairly consistent with respect to its performances as compared to the Power Ratings, this will be a case of a team not getting the respect it deserves and being under-rated by the wagering public.
Here, we get the underdog in a big “get-up” situation and the favorite in a big “let-down” spot.
Missouri is 4-0 SU (+23.2 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+18.2 ppg) off a SU loss since 2006, while Texas is 0-5 ATS (-12.4 ppg) as a favorite of less than 25 points vs. opponents off a favorite SU loss. The Tigers are also 8-0 ATS on the road vs. opponents off 2 SU & ATS wins, and 10-0 ATS (+16.8 ppg) since 1994 with 5+ days rest and not a dog of 23+ points vs. opponents off an underdog SU win.
Our database research shows Missouri in a very strong position here to bounce back off last week’s loss. The qualify as a PLAY ON team for several strong NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS of ours, including one that demonstrates how after blowing a perfect season as a big home favorite, teams have recovered quite nicely in the role of road underdog against conference foes. Specifically:
From Game 4 on, play ON a conference road underdog of less than 19 points/pick ‘em off a home SU loss as a home favorite of 7+ points and its first SU loss of the season.
Teams in this role have been perfect since at least 1981, going 22-0 ATS, while beating the spread by more than a TD on average.
Another handicapping strategy is to play AGAINST a Top 10 team off a win over another Top 10 opponent. The winning team likely expended more energy and effort to pull of the victory in a big game. They will have little left in their emotional or physical tanks. Meanwhile, their opponent will be fired up knowing they are facing one of the top teams in the country. In this case, Missouri gets to face THE top team in the country, while the Longhorns simply won’t be able to duplicate last week’s effort and emotion.
Indeed, we have another POWER SYSTEM revealing that unbeaten teams off an underdog victory against another unbeaten foe have had very little left as a favorite of less than 3 TDs. Texas is active for this POWER SYSTEM that advises:
From Game 5 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of less than 20 points off an underdog SU win against an unbeaten foe vs. an opponent not off 6 SU wins this season. Since 1996, these teams have gone 0-12-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average! We already used this system once in a top-rated STAR SELECTION play with Kentucky over Alabama, as the WildCats lost but covered the spread by double digits.
Many will be afraid to fade the Longhorns here, as they are a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the season; however, unbeaten favorites without a spread loss have hit a wall in their 7th game. Since at least 1980, no favorite of 16 points or less with a 6-0 SU & ATS mark has made it to 7-0 SU & ATS. Six teams have tried and six teams have failed, losing 5 of the 6 outright, while failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
The Longhorns played a great game last week and handed us another top-rated STAR SELECTION winner, but they left it on the field at the Cotton Bowl and will not have enough left in the tank for an angry bunch of Tigers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 35 TEXAS 27
12:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2 over Western Michigan
The battle for the MAC West really gets going on Saturday with the Broncos, 4-0 in conference play, and the Chippewas, 3-0 in MAC action, take the field to renew a rivalry.
Western Michigan has been shaky at times, needing a comeback and overtime last week to get by Buffalo, but they’ve won six straight thanks to strong line play and a tremendous season from QB Tim Hiller.
"We got lucky, we know that, but it was a real good gut-check by our kids," Head coach Bill Cubit said.
Central Michigan is finishing up the end of a three-game homestand before getting to play Toledo and Northern Illinois on the road. The Chippewas passing attack isn’t all that bad, either, as QB Dan LeFevour has been tremendous throwing the ball, and his backup, Brian Brunner, was fine when he had to fill in. In a game that should be tight, and should be changed on a big play, the punt return ability of the Chips’ Antonio Brown could be a major difference. Central Michigan and Brown are second in the nation in punt returns averaging 22.6 yards per try.
The books opened this game with Central Michigan as a 3½-point favorite; however, the public, enamored by Western’s win streak has moved this line to the point where the Broncos are a road favorite. This plays right into some of our favored handicapping strategies.
First, we look to play AGAINST a team that is being favored by “normal” line moves. Normal line moves occur from the end of the early period until an hour or two before gametime. These moves occur almost exclusively because of money. Whereas lines can move a full point or more very quickly during the early movement period, they have a tendency to creep in one direction or the other during the normal movement period, often at different paces in different places. This is where the public is influential - oftentimes a thousand $20 bets can push a line ½ point, as opposed to the early period when large wagers are the line movers. Here, books are trying to attract money to the unpopular side. When books respond to one-sided betting by steadily moving a line in one direction they are risking the house's worst nightmare - being sided or middled. So, when a line is slowly adjusted during the normal period, it is done with some risk for the bookmaker. Thus, lines will not move unless one of two factors occurs: The linesmaker is getting extremely one sided action or the linesmaker is reasonably sure the game won't finish right on or between the numbers. Normal line moves are therefore important to note because they offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting and, thus, which side to avoid.
In our estimation, the books are confident that the Chippewas will win this game and by more than a field goal, which is they opened up a half-point ABOVE that key number.
Secondly, we look to play ON a team that opened as a favorite a half-point higher than a “key number”, such as a -3' or -7'-point favorite, especially -3'. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point higher than the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the underdog can lose by X (the key number in question) points and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the favored team will often win and cover easily in these cases. If the line has moved down to the key number or below after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the underdog, especially if the line move did not happen a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the favorite without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. If the spread doesn't move, the investor should "line shop" in an effort to find a key number. If he can't find one, ultimately a half-point should only be bought if the spread is at -3'. Here, the line swing has provided us with tremendous value.
Western knows they were lucky last week, and when teams know they’ve been more lucky than good, the gig is about up. The Broncos have faded after playing extra sessions before, as they are 0-3 ATS with less than 13 days rest off overtime games since 1999, while Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS since 2003 vs. opponents off OT games.
On the road off an overtime victory, teams like Central Michigan have nothing left under the conditions described by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
In Games 2-9, play AGAINST a road team (not an underdog of more than 4 points) off an OT SU win (not a favorite of 14+ points or underdog of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off 2 conference road underdog SU losses.
Since 1997, which is shortly after OT went into effect for college football, these teams are a shocking 0-28 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
Meanwhile, we get to jump on a Chippewas team that is very strong at home, going 7-0-1 ATS (+12.6 ppg) as host when not favored by 7+ points. They also qualify for another POWER SYSTEM that instructs:
Play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 6 points) off 2 home SU wins.
Just since 2004, these teams are 15-0-1 ATS, blasting the spread by 11 ppg on average.
Being a home dog will certainly get Central’s attention here, and we look for them to take charge of this game early and hold off the Broncos, as the Chippewas win this game by at least a TD.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 WESTERN MICHIGAN 23
12:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
SOUTH FLORIDA -24 over Syracuse
The Bulls’ first bye of the season couldn’t have come at a better time, as South Florida is now rested coming off their first loss of the season, a crushing home defeat to Pittsburgh in a nationally televised mid-week game. Injuries were also beginning to mount. A week away from live action gave the Bulls a chance to regroup, refocus, and get healthy. While the margin for error in the Big East has narrowed, South Florida knows it’ll be in the hunt if it can shake off its only loss of the season.
On the opposite spectrum is the Orange, which will need an upset over the final six games just to avoid a second one-win season in the last four years. Actually, Syracuse has been competitive in the last two Big East games, including a 17-6 loss to West Virginia Saturday, but has yet to play four strong quarters. Syracuse fans are already looking forward to the school naming a new coach, as Greg Robinson has been an absolute disaster.
This game figures to get ugly early. On both sides of the ball, South Florida simply has too much speed and athleticism for the plodding Orange, and there will be no chance that the Bulls will be anything but 100% focused here. With more weapons than at any time in his career, QB Matt Grothe will get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, such as RB Mike Ford and receivers Jessie Hester and Taurus Johnson. Up front, South Florida will school a flimsy Syracuse offensive line and get constant pressure on QB Cameron Dantley. If he forces throws into coverage, the instinctive Bulls secondary will make him pay in the form of batted balls and interceptions.
Syracuse is the ideal sacrificial lamb for South Florida to get back on track. We expect Grothe to spark the offense with his arm and legs, and the defense to create a bunch of short-field opportunities with turnovers and three-and-outs.
The numbers certainly back us up here, as Syracuse is:
0-17 ATS (-11.9 ppg) in losses with less than 13 days rest against opponents off a conference SU loss;
0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) with less than 13 days rest as an underdog of 16-36 points;
0-5 ATS from as an underdog of 4+ points off 2 ATS wins since 2004 , while South Florida is 3-0 SU (+28.7 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) in the reverse role.
With South Florida here, we get the opportunity to play ON a good team in the “meat” of the season that needs a victory more than its opponent.
A peak performance can be expected from a good team with realistic conference title and/or postseason expectations that is struggling and in danger of falling out of contention. When such a team is ready to play with some urgency, they will hold nothing back in their attempt to get back on track.
South Florida is:
3-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) vs. Syracuse all-time;
3-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) in the regular season off a home SU loss the last 3 seasons, while the Orange went 0-3 ATS in the reverse role last season.
The Bulls are also 4-0 SU (+19 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+14 ppg) in Saturday home/neutral site games with rest over the past several seasons. Syracuse is 0-4 SU & ATS vs. opponents with rest since the start of last year.
Teams back at home after losing a highlighted non-Saturday home game have made the most of the opportunity as demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:
Play ON a home team off a non-Saturday home SU loss (not an underdog of 3+ points) vs. an opponent not off a non-lined home SU win. These teams are 10-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than 11 points per game on average.
Also, after a shocking home loss to a conference foe, rested teams back at home have been more than ready to pounce on another conference opponent. This is revealed by another POWER SYSTEM that advises:
Play ON a conference home team with 7+ days rest off a conference home SU loss as a favorite of 9+ points.
Since 1984, these teams are a perfect 13-0 ATS, hammering the spread by nearly 18 ppg on average!
The Bulls qualify for both PLAY ON situations here and should rampage to an easy SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH FLORIDA 42 SYRACUSE 3
3:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
VIRGINIA +4½ over North Carolina
The Tar Heels are hot as the travel on Saturday to take on a Cavaliers team that is also starting to warm up. After beating Notre Dame in a classic, North Carolina is beginning to get national recognition and now find themselves as a sizeable road favorite against an ACC rival. Butch Davis has the Tar Heels way ahead of schedule, ranked #18 in the latest AP poll and still in the hunt in the ACC Coastal.
The win over the Irish, however, came at a price. Brandon Tate, the team’s multi-dimensional threat, was a lost for the year with a knee injury, a stiff blow to the offense and the special teams.
All the talk of Al Groh’s demise may have been greatly exaggerated. He’s got Virginia playing its best football of the season right now, blowing past Maryland and East Carolina in consecutive contests. Credit the coaching staff for getting the program to 500 and turning around a season that appeared to be beyond repair in September. With a win here, the ‘Hoos can start seriously talking about bowl eligibility, and we like their chances.
It took a while, but the Cavalier defense has finally started to come around, pressuring the quarterback and limiting the big plays that were prevalent in the early going. Virginia is now second in the ACC in sacks and has held the last three opponents under 100 yards in rushing. When Carolina isn’t getting help from the defense and special teams, the 91st-ranked offense has had trouble scoring and sustaining drives. Without Tate on the field, the ‘Heels could really stall here.
Coming off an emotional win over Notre Dame, North Carolina will have its hands full with a resurgent Virginia squad. As it is, the Tar Heels were outgained 472-322 in total offense, but they held the Irish to only 89 yards rushing and forced five turnovers. The Heels had no turnovers after recovering their only fumble. They certainly can’t expect to have similar luck here.
North Carolina's victory over Notre Dame will have no bearing on the fortunes of the Tar Heels in the ACC race, of course, but it was a big win.
"It means a lot to this program," junior wide receiver Hakeen Nicks. "All of the players are fired up, the coaches are fired up. Guys really gave it their all and put it all on the line."
It will be very hard to re-focus for this game against a very determined Virginia team. We like to play AGAINST a team off a game in which they lost statistically but won the contest, which is the case with North Carolina. The public looks little beyond the final score and does not examine the stats, so a team off such a win will often be overpriced in their next game. Our Power Ratings indicate that the wrong team is favored here, showing just how over-priced the Tar Heels are right now.
It certainly won’t be a comfortable spotlight for North Carolina, as they are 0-5 ATS as a conference favorite of 3+ points since 2004.
As noted, they are also likely to be flat following their win over the Irish. After a home victory over Notre Dame, teams have had a hard time getting focused for a conference foe. Over the past 20 seasons, from Game 6 on, conference teams not getting 20+ points off a home SU win against Notre Dame are 0-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 16 ppg on average!
Meanwhile, with Virginia, we can play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games.
Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. These teams should be ones in which there wasn’t much expected anyway, as they’re in a rebuilding mode. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them.
Groh certainly has his players attention right now, as will this pointspread, as Virginia is 11-0 ATS (+15.8 ppg) as a home underdog of less than 20 points and not seeking revenge for a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss, scoring less than 11 points last season.
Finally, our database research shows that teams back at home with a tight line off 2 home victories have been very strong in recent seasons. Virginia qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 6 points) off 2 home SU wins.
Since 2004, these teams are 15-0-1 ATS, besting the spread by 11 ppg on average.
The Cavaliers should continue to roll, while the Tar Heels hit a snag as a flat, over-priced road favorite and are unable to match the emotion of the underdog hosts who should win this game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA 28 NORTH CAROLINA 21
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