SPORTS ADVISORS
(11) Missouri (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at (1) Texas (6-0 SU and ATS)
A week after stunning top-ranked Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, Texas now will try to avoid a letdown and hold onto its No. 1 ranking when it welcomes Chase Daniel and Missouri to Austin for a key Big 12 showdown. The Longhorns rallied from a pair of 11-point first-half deficits and outscored the Sooners 25-14 in the second half en route to last week’s 45-35 upset win in Dallas as a 6½-point underdog. Texas, which has won and covered seven straight games dating to last year’s Holiday Bowl, finished with a scant 438-435 advantage in total offense, but the ‘Horns used a 161-48 edge in rushing to control the clock and hold the ball for 37 minutes (to just 23 minutes for Oklahoma).
Missouri’s perfect season went up in smoke in last week’s 28-23 home loss to Oklahoma State as a 14-point home favorite. Tigers QB Chase Daniel went 39-for-52 for 390 yards, but he threw just one touchdown (a season-low) and three interceptions (a season-high), and for the first time this year he got no support from his rushing attack, which netted just 64 yards. In fact, Mizzou got outrushed 187-64.
Texas has won all four meetings against Missouri this decade, going 3-1 ATS. In the two battles in Austin, the Longhorns rolled 35-16 and 51-20.
Missouri has alternated spread-covers in its last four games, but the Tigers are still on ATS tears of 15-5 overall and 8-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are on a 9-1 ATS streak dating to last November, and they’re also on pointspread runs of 4-0 at home, 4-1 in Big 12 contests, 12-5 in October and 25-10 on grass.
This game pits two of the nation’s top quarterbacks against each other. Mizzou’s Daniel is completing 76.7 percent of his throws for 342.5 yards per game with 16 TDs and four INTs. Meanwhile, Texas junior Colt McCoy has an even better completion rate than Daniel (79.4), and he’s thrown fro 259.5 ypg with 17 TDs and three INTs. McCoy has also rushed for 348 yards (5.9 per carry) and four scores.
The Tigers, who had a season-low in points in the loss to Oklahoma State, are putting up 48.3 points and 549.7 total yards per game, while yielding 21.3 points and 380.8 yards per contest. As for Texas, it is averaging 46.3 points and 466.2 total yards per outing (110.3 rushing ypg), with the defense giving up only 15.3 points and 319 total yards (51.2 rushing ypg).
The over is 7-3 in Texas’ last 10 overall, 10-4 in its last 14 on grass, 5-0 in its last five conference games, 7-1 in Missouri’s last eight on the road and 2-0 in the last two head-to-head meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
(21) Wake Forest (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Maryland (4-2, 3-2 ATS)
The Demon Deacons will try to win their third straight ACC matchup of the young season when they host Top-25 killer Maryland at Byrd Stadium in College Park, Md. Wake Forest has scored just 12 points in each of its first two ACC games, including last Thursday when the Deacons topped Clemson 12-7 as a two-point home favorite. They scored nine points in the fourth quarter, including a Riley Skinner TD pass with 5:28 left to secure the victory. The Wake Forest defense limited Clemson’s potent rushing attack to 21 yards and is allowing just 15 points an 274.2 yards per contest. Maryland has won four straight against ranked opponents, including wins this season over then-No. 23 California on Sept. 13 and then-No. 20 Clemson two weeks later. The Terrapins had last weekend off after a surprising 31-0 loss at Virginia on Oct. 4 as a 13-point road chalk. RB Da’Rel Scott leads the ACC with 96.4 rushing yards per game, and he’s found the end zone four times. Wake Forest beat the Terps 31-24 in overtime last year at home, cashing as a 3½-point favorite. It was the second straight win and cover for the Demon Deacons in this series after losing seven straight (0-7 ATS). The straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings dating back to 1998, including Wake Forest’s 38-24 win as one-point road ‘dogs in its last trip to Maryland in 2006.
Wake is on ATS runs of 10-3 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 19-7-2 in October, 6-1 in ACC contests and 10-2 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile Maryland is on ATS slides of 4-9 in conference games, but 4-1 in its last five on grass.
For the Demon Deacons, the over is 6-2 in their last eight on the road and 5-2 in their last seven in October. On the flip side, for the Terps, the under is on runs of 9-3 overall, 4-0 in ACC games and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Finally, the over has easily cashed in the last two matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST
Georgia Tech (5-1, 4-0 ATS) at Clemson (3-3, 0-4 ATS)
Clemson begins its post-Tommy Bowden era by hosting a red-hot Georgia Tech team in an ACC matchup inside Memorial Stadium.
Bowden stepped down as coach this week in the middle of his 10th season, four days after Clemson fell 12-7 at Wake Forest as a two-point road underdog. Wide receivers coach Dabo Swinney takes over the reins at Clemson, a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since 1991 and is off to a 1-2 SU start in conference play this season (0-3 ATS).
The Tigers had just 198 yards of total offense against Wake and will now go with redshirt freshman Willy Korn at QB instead of senior Cullen Harper. Korn is 22-of-29 for 257 yards and two TDs in limited play the last two seasons. After two dominating home wins over Mississippi State (38-7 as a seven-point favorite) and Duke (27-0 as a 13-point chalk), Georgia Tech struggled against Division I-AA Gardner Webb a week ago, eking out a 10-7 win in a non-lined contest, blocking a field goal to avoid overtime. The Jackets get starting QB Josh Nesbitt back after a three-week absence. Nesbitt is the team’s second leading rusher and he has thrown for 269 yards and a touchdown. Georgia Tech upset Clemson 13-3 a year ago, cashing as a three-point home ‘dog. The Jackets have won three of the last four (2-2 ATS) against the Tigers, including a 28-24 win at Clemson back in 2004 as a seven-point pup. The home team has won the last three matchups in this series (2-1 ATS), and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10. The Yellow Jackets are on ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway and 4-1 in ACC contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been a disaster at the betting window, currently on ATS slides of 0-7 overall, 0-5 at home, 0-4 in ACC games and 0-5 against teams with a winning record. For Georgia Tech, the under is on runs of 15-7 on the road, 20-7-2 in October and 5-2 in ACC play. It’s also been all unders for Clemson, including 7-0 in its last seven overall, 5-0 in its last five at home, 8-3 in its last 11 October contests and 4-0 in its last four ACC battles. Finally, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
(17) Virginia Tech (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at Boston College (4-1, 2-2 ATS)
Virginia Tech will try to make it five in a row as they visit Alumni Stadium in Boston to face Boston College in a key ACC showdown.
The Hokies were shocked in their season-opener at East Carolina, losing 27-22, but bounced back to win four straight in September (2-1 ATS) before a sloppy 27-13 win over Western Kentucky two weeks ago, falling well short as a 26½-point home favorite. The Hokies are getting productive play from QB Tyrod Taylor, who despite only averaging 99 passing ypg has put up 67.6 rushing ypg with two TDs.
Boston College comes off its bye riding a three-game winning streak, including a 38-31 shootout victory at N.C. State two weeks ago, though it came up just shy as a 7½-point favorite. Senior QB Chris Crane torched the Wolfpack for 428 yards and two TDs and also ran for three scores, including the game-winner with 23 seconds left. Freshman RB Montel Harris has also started to find his rhythm, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and getting 255 yards in wins over Central Florida and Rhode Island.
Virginia Tech went to Beantown last year and got a 30-16 win as a five-point favorite, snapping a two-game SU and ATS Eagles’ winning streak in the series. Boston College is just 3-6 SU in the last nine series clashes but 7-2 ATS, all as an underdog. The Hokies are on pointspread runs of 19-7 on the road, 24-7 in ACC action, 11-4 in October kickoffs and 5-2 coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven October contests, but otherwise they’re on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 0-4 in ACC games and 1-4 against teams with a winning record.
The over has been the play in seven of Virginia Tech’s last 10 roadies, but otherwise the Hokies are on under streaks of 5-2 overall, 11-5 in ACC contests and 5-1 following a straight-up win. For Boston College, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in conference contests, 4-1 at home and 5-1 following a bye week. Finally, the under has been the play in the last four Virginia Tech-Boston College meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) Kansas (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (5-1, 4-1 ATS)
With their hopes of a perfect season gone, the Sooners will try to rebound when they welcome Kansas to Norman, Okla., for a key Big 12 matchup.
Oklahoma went to Dallas a week ago and lost the Red River Shootout to Texas 45-35 as a seven-point favorite. The Sooners led by as many as 11 points twice in the first half before being outscored 25-7 in the final 20 minutes. Despite the setback, Bob Stoops’ squad still is ranked sixth in the nation in total offense (522.5 ypg) and fourth in scoring (47.2 ppg). The key to Oklahoma’s high-powered offense is QB Sam Bradford who has thrown for 2,052 yards, 23 TDs and five INTs, including 387 yards, five TDs and two INTs against Texas a week ago. Kansas has rattled off three straight wins (1-1 ATS) and scored no less than 29 points in every game this season. Last week, the Jayhawks opened up a tight game against Colorado with two fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a 30-14 home win as a 14-point home chalk. The offense is rolling behind QB Todd Reesing who has 1,978 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs, including 256 yards and a TD against the Buffaloes. RB Jake Sharp was able to slice up the Colorado defense, racking up 118 rushing yards and three TDs on a career-high 31 carries. These squads haven’t met since Oklahoma scored a 19-3 win at Kansas in 2005, cashing as a seven-point roach chalk. The Sooners have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in the series dating back to 2000 following a three-game SU and ATS streak by Kansas in the mid-to-late 1990s. The winner has covered the number in seven of the last eight head-to-head clashes. The Jayhawks are on a host of ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 12-3 in Big 12 contests, 6-1 on the road and 7-1 in October. Meanwhile, the Sooners are just 1-4 ATS in their last five October games, but they are on positive spread runs of 4-1 overall, 11-3-1 in Norman since 2006 (10-3-1 as a double-digit chalk) and 12-5 following a straight-up loss in the Stoops era. OU has also won 21 consecutive Big 12 home games. The over is 9-4 in Kansas’ last 13 roadies, but otherwise the under is on runs for the Jayhawks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in October and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Oklahoma’s last six and 8-3-1 in its last 12 at home, but the under is 14-5-1 in its last 20 conference games and 9-3 in its last 12 following a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Mississippi (3-3, 3-2 ATS) at (2) Alabama (6-0, 4-2 ATS)
The Crimson Tide hasn’t lost to Mississippi in Tuscaloosa, Ala., in 20 years and hopes to continue that streak today when the Rebels come calling at Bryant-Denny Stadium for an SEC matchup. Alabama, coming off a bye, struggled mightily in its most recent game two weeks ago, edging Kentucky 17-14 as a 15½-point chalk. The Crimson Tide committed 10 penalties for 92 yards, turned the ball over three times and QB John Parker Wilson threw for just 106 yards and an INT. However, RB Glen Coffee picked up the slack, rushing 25 times for 218 yards and a TD against the Wildcats. Coffee has 708 yards rushing and five TDs to pace the SEC’s No. 1 ground attack, which averages 226.3 ypg. The Tide’s rushing defense also has been exceptional this year, allowing just 50.8 ypg, good for second-best in the nation. Mississippi State also is coming off a bye week and has alternated wins and losses this season, including a 31-24 home loss to South Carolina as a two-point chalk back on Oct. 4. Turnovers have been the main reason for the Rebels’ mediocre season, as they’ve lost the ball 15 times in their last five games and had three against the Gamecocks. Houston Nutt’s rushing attack is third in the SEC at 163 yards per game, but the offense managed just 129 total yards in the second half against South Carolina. Alabama has won four straight (1-3 ATS) in this rivalry, but the last three have all been decided by three points, including the Crimson Tide’s 27-24 road win last year when they failed to cash as a seven-point chalk. The last time these two met in Tuscaloosa in 2006, Alabama got a 26-23 overtime win as a 15½-point home favorite. The Tide lead the all-time series 44-9-2 SU, going 8-2 in the last 10, but only 4-6 ATS. Mississippi is on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 19-9 in October and 4-1 following a SU loss. Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall, but otherwise Nick Saban’s squad is on ATS slides of 7-20-2 at home, 3-7 in SEC games, 3-7-1 in October and 3-8 following a non-cover. The Rebels have topped the total in four of their last five, but they’re still in the midst of under runs of 9-4 in October, 4-1 following a non-cover and 24-9 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the over is 7-3 in Alabama’s last 10 conference games, but the under is 8-2 in its last 10 after a straight-up won and 10-4 in its last 14 October kickoffs. Finally, the over has been the play the last two years in this rivalry, but the under was on a 4-1 run prior to 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA
(22) Vanderbilt (5-1 SU and ATS) at (10) Georgia (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
With its dreams of an unbeaten season now gone, Vanderbilt heads out on the road for the second straight week when it battles SEC rival Georgia between the hedges. The Commodores’ unproductive offense finally caught up to them in last week’s 17-14 loss at Mississippi State as a 2½-point road chalk, snapping a five-game SU and ATS winning streak to start the season. Vanderbilt managed just 62 passing yards, 45 rushing yards and seven first downs, while also losing the turnover battle 2-0. The Commodores are averaging just 250 total yards per game, including 90.3 passing ypg. Georgia dominated Tennessee from start to finish last week, rolling 26-14 but coming up just short as a 12½-point home chalk. The Bulldogs had a 455-209 edge in total offense, rushing for 145 yards while holding the Vols to 1 net rushing yard. QB Matthew Stafford went 25-for-36 for 310 yards and a touchdown, but he tossed two interceptions – his first of the season – costing his team the spread-cover. Vanderbilt has played Georgia very tough the last two years, pulling off a stunning 24-22 road upset as a 14½-point road underdog in 2006 and losing just 20-17 as a seven-point home underdog last season, with the Dawgs winning it on a last-second field goal. The road team has won the last three meetings and four of the last five, and the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
Georgia has followed up a 6-0-1 ATS run with consecutive non-covers and is now 2-8 ATS in its last 10 October outings. Vandy is on ATS streaks of 4-1 in SEC play, 12-5-1 on the highway, 17-7 as a road underdog and 9-4 after a SU defeat. For Vandy, the under is on streaks of 13-4-1 overall, 5-2 on the road, 11-1-1 in SEC games and 6-0 in October. Also, the under is 3-1 in Georgia’s last four overall and 4-1 in its last five in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT and UNDER
(12) Ohio State (6-1, 1-5 ATS) at (20) Michigan State (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS)
Two of the three teams tied atop the Big Ten standings clash in East Lansing, Mich., where the Spartans host freshman phenom Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State. Michigan State ran its winning streak to six in a row with last Saturday’s dominating 37-20 victory over previously undefeated Northwestern, easily covering as a 1½-point road favorite. The Spartans, who haven’t lost since a season-opening 38-31 defeat at Cal, got outgained 459-297 at Northwestern. However, they got 124 rushing yards and two TDs from star RB Javon Ringer, and the defense forced three turnovers. Ohio State rode another stout defensive effort to a 16-3 victory over Purdue last week, but the Buckeyes’ spread-covering woes continued as they failed to cash as an 18½-point home favorite. Pryor (10-for-14 for 97 yards passing; 14 carries for 27 yards rushing) led an offense that generated just 222 total yards, but the defense gave up only 298 and forced the game’s only two turnovers. The Buckeyes have won six straight meetings against Michigan State, going 4-1-1 ATS. The only non-cover came last year, when Ohio State prevailed 24-17 as a 17-point home chalk. In their last two trips to East Lansing, the Buckeyes came away with easy wins of 38-7 in 2006 and 32-19 in 2004. The chalk is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes. Although Ohio State has failed to cash in six of its last seven going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game, it is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 as a visitor, 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference road tilts, 7-2 ATS in its last nine in October and 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on grass. Meanwhile, the Spartans are on spread-covering streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten play, 5-1-1 as an underdog and 7-1 against winning teams, but they’re 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 at home and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 in October. The under is on runs of 5-1 for Ohio State overall, 5-2 for Ohio State on the road, 8-2 for Ohio State in October and 4-0 for Michigan State at home. Finally, the last two meetings between these rivals have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Michigan (2-4, 1-5 ATS) at (3) Penn State (7-0, 5-1 ATS)
Two teams coming off drastically different results meet up in Happy Valley, where Penn State is a heavy favorite to defeat slumping Michigan in a Big Ten battle. The Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin last Saturday night and humbled the Badgers 48-7 as a six-point favorite, extending their winning streak to seven in a row. Penn State QB Daryll Clark went 16-for-25 for 244 yards, one TD and one INT, leading an offense that rolled up 377 total yards. The defense forced four turnovers, and the special teams contributed a punt return for a touchdown. Michigan shanked a short game-tying field-goal attempt in the closing seconds last week, suffering an embarrassing 13-10 loss to Toledo as a 17-point home favorite. The Wolverines, who suffered a 45-20 home loss to Illinois the previous week, managed just 290 total yards, and QBs Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet combined for just 120 passing yards and three INTs.
Penn State should be plenty motivated to win this one, having lost nine straight games to Michigan dating to 1997, going 2-7 ATS during the losing skid, including 0-4 ATS at home. Last year, the Wolverines eked out a 14-9 victory as a two-point home underdog. The past four meetings have been very close, decided by a total of 17 points. Finally, the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes. The Nittany Lions have massive statistical advantages over the Wolverines on both sides of the ball, putting up 45.3 points and 482.1 total yards per game, while allowing just 11 points and 259.3 yards per contest. On the other hand, Michigan nets just 18.8 points and 291.8 total yards per contest, and yields 24.8 points and 344.2 yards. Although Michigan has failed to cover in five of its first six games under new coach Rich Rodriguez, the school still enjoys positive pointspread streaks of 11-4 on the road, 15-6-1 in Big Ten play and 11-5-1 against winning teams. Meanwhile, Penn State is on ATS tears of 14-6 as a double-digit favorite, 5-0 against losing teams and 9-4-2 in October, but is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven conference contests.
For Michigan, the over is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road and 4-1 in conference play. Also, the over is 5-2 in Penn State’s last seven Big Ten contests. However, the under is 2-0 in the lat two series meetings overall and 2-0 in the last two head-to-head clashes at Penn State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) LSU (4-1, 1-3 ATS) at South Carolina (5-2, 4-2 ATS)
South Carolina goes for its fifth straight victory when it entertains a shell-shocked LSU squad at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Gamecocks return home after two impressive seven-point SEC road wins over Mississippi (31-24 as a two-point underdog) and Kentucky (24-17 as a two-point favorite). Since a season-opening 34-0 rout of N.C. State, South Carolina has had four games decided by exactly seven points, one decided by 10 points and one decided by 13 points. LSU went to The Swamp last Saturday night and got rocked 51-21 as a 6½-point road underdog. The Tigers’ defense gave up 475 total yards, got outgained 265-80 on the ground and lost the turnover battle 3-1, all of which contributed to the end of the defending national champions’ seven-game winning streak.
LSU has won all three meetings against South Carolina since 2002, including last year’s 28-16 home victory when the Tigers outgained the Gamecocks by nearly 100 yards (360-261). However, South Carolina scored nine fourth-quarter points to steal the cover as a 17½-point road underdog. The Tigers are mired in ATS slumps of 3-10-2 overall, 3-6-1 on the highway, 2-8 in SEC play, 0-4 in October and 1-4 on grass, but they have been a solid bounce-back team lately, going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine following a SU defeat. South Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams, but 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight SEC contests.
During their four-game winning streak, the Gamecocks have scored at least 23 points in each outing, and their defense is giving up just 15 points and an SEC-low 241 total yards per game. Meanwhile, LSU is averaging 32.6 points and 406 total yards per contest, but giving up 22.4 points and 303.6 yards. LSU sports a bunch of over streaks, including 11-2 overall, 5-0 on the road, 13-3 in SEC play, 4-0 in October and 9-1 on grass. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in the ‘Cocks’ last six conference games, but they have stayed low in each of their last four at Williams-Brice Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and OVER
(25) Cal (4-1 SU and ATS) at Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS)
Having climbed back into the Top 25 with back-to-back double-digit wins, Cal will try to stay there when it heads to the desert for a Pac-10 tussle with Arizona in Tucson. The Golden Bears, who were idle last week, rebounded from an ugly 35-27 loss at Maryland as a 14-point road favorite with consecutive home victories over Colorado Sate (42-7) and Arizona State (24-14), cashing in both games. In the win over the Sun Devils, Cal had just 277 total yards of offense, but the defense limited Arizona State to 236 yards and forced three turnovers. Arizona will be looking to bounce back from last week’s crushing 24-23 loss at Stanford as a seven-point road chalk, the team’s first Pac-10 defeat of the season. The Wildcats, who allowed Stanford to score on a 1-yard run with 25 seconds left, won the turnover battle 3-0, but were on the short end of a 438-336 total yardage margin, including getting outgained 286-77 on the ground.
Cal hammered the Wildcats 45-27 as a 14-point home favorite last year, making the host 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. The Bears are on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with the lone defeat coming in their last trip to Tucson in 2006, a 24-20 setback as a 13-point road favorite. The SU winner is 9-0 ATS in Cal’s last nine contests and 9-1 ATS in Arizona’s last 10 (6-0 this year). Also, the winner has cashed in each of the last seven Cal-Arizona battles dating to 2001, with six of those seven meetings decided by at least two touchdowns. Arizona is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games as an underdog, including 6-1-1 ATS as a home pup since 2005. The Wildcats are also on ATS runs of 8-2 overall, 5-0 in Tucson, 6-1 in Pac-10 play, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-2 on grass. Meanwhile, Cal has covered in five of its last six overall, but is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 on the road, 2-7 ATS in its last nine league games, 3-13 ATS in its last 16 on grass and 1-4 ATS in its last five in October.
For the Wildcats, the under is on streaks of 23-11-3 at home, 15-6 on grass, 4-1 in conference action and 7-2 in October. Also, the under is 8-3-1 in Cal’s last 12 on the highway and 6-2 in its last eight Pac-10 affairs. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and UNDER
ALCS
Boston (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)
Two days after staging the biggest postseason rally in 79 years, the Red Sox again will try to keep their season alive when they send Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.41 ERA) to the mound at Tropicana Field, while the shell-shocked Rays will counter with James Shields (15-9, 3.54).
Trailing 7-0 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning Thursday, the defending champs got up off the deck and scored four runs in the seventh, three in the eighth and one in the ninth to stun Tampa Bay 8-7 and send this series back to Florida for Game 6. It was the biggest postseason comeback since 1929 and kept the Rays from sweeping three games at Fenway Park and advancing to their first World Series. Tampa still leads the best-of-7 series 3-2.
Boston enters tonight on runs of 12-4 in the playoffs, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 in road playoff games and 41-18 following an off day, and under manager Terry Francona, the Red Sox are now 8-1 in elimination playoff games. On the downside, the BoSox have lost 21 of their last 29 games on artificial turf and they’re 0-5 in Beckett’s last five trips to the mound.
Despite Thursday’s debacle, the Rays at least get to return to Tropicana Field, where they’ve won 56 of their last 74 games. They’re also on streaks of 9-2 against divisional foes, 42-12 versus right-handed starters, 15-6 when playing on Saturday and 10-4 against the Sox (6-2 at home against Boston). And going back to last season, Tampa has taken 11 of the last 13 from Boston at the Trop.
The home team won the first 12 series meetings between these teams this year, but the visitor is 6-4 in the last 10.
Prior to this postseason, Beckett had been 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in 10 career playoff appearances (nine starts). However, he’s been crushed in two outings this month (both on the road), allowing a combined 12 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (five home runs) in just 9 1/3 innings, good for an 11.57 ERA. Although he didn’t get a decision in either contest, the Red Sox lost both, including a 9-8 defeat in Game 2 at Tampa Bay a week ago tonight. In that one, Beckett lasted 4 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs on nine hits.
During the regular season, Beckett faced the Rays five times, going 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA, including 0-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two outings at Tropicana Field. For his career, he’s 5-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays (1-2, 1.93 ERA at the Trop). Also, on the road this season, the hard-throwing right-hander is 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 16 starts (playoffs included).
Shields took the ball for Tampa Bay in Game 1 eight days ago and pitched a gem, giving up just two runs in 7 1/3 innings, but the Rays’ offense couldn’t find home plate and Shields lost, 2-0. He’s 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his first two playoff starts, both at home. Speaking of home, Shields has been the Rays’ ace at Tropicana Field, going 10-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 19 starts, 15 of which Tampa has won. In fact, the Rays are 20-6 in his last 26 home outings.
Tampa Bay is just 2-7 in Shields’ nine career starts against the Red Sox (2-3 this season), with the righthander posting a 2-4 mark with a 5.23 ERA. However, in three home starts against Boston in 2008, he’s 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA.
With Beckett on the hill, the under is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-2 on the road and 4-2 when he pitches at the Trop, though last Saturday’s contest easily flew over the total. Meanwhile, the over is 4-2 in Shields’ last six home starts and 4-2 in his last six on Saturdays.
The last four games in this series have soared over the posted total. The over is also 13-4 in Tampa’s last 17 at home, 21-6 in its last 27 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in Boston’s last six ALCS games and 6-0-1 in its last six on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
