Service Plays Saturday 10/11/08

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TeddyJune???

Anyone have TeddyJune Game of the Week? Also his Underdog of the week? Thanks much in advance

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Bettersworld

3* Wisconsin +6 over Penn State - One word comes to mind when we think of Wisconsin. Desperate. It's safe to say the season hangs in the balance this week as JoePa and the Nittany Lions come to town as Wisconsin is in danger of starting 0-3 in the Big 10. The Big 10 title already looks like a lost cause but a loss here would seal that deal. A big time bowl game is also slipping away. All this for a team that was 9-4 a year ago and returned many key pieces to the puzzle from a year ago. This was a decent team a year ago that was only outclassed twice and figured to be improved this year.

What makes it all the more difficult to swallow is that Wisconsin could have won both games they lost this year. They controlled the clock against Michigan and moved the ball on the ground and thru the air for 384 total yards. Ahead 19-0 at the half and 19-7 after 3, they couldn't hold on turning the ball over and allowing 3 Michigan scores in the 4th quarter. Despite their poor performance in the 2nd half they still had chances to win it but failed.

Wisky regrouped to host one of the two teams to outclass them a year ago, Ohio State, last week. Last year saw Ohio State won 38-17. But last week, the game was dead even right across the board. Just about every major category, dead even. It came down to who could make the big plays at the end of the game, and that was Ohio State, scoring on their final drive and then intercepting Allan Evridge on Wisky's final drive to end the game.

Clearly Wisconsin has closed the gap between them and Ohio State. Ohio State, Wisky and Penn State all have similar make ups this year as far as who returned from a year ago. All lost QB's and returned just about everyone else. Both beat Wisky decisively a year ago. Wisky closed the gap one, why not the other.

The 8pm est. start time and the National TV audience only add to the already significant Wisconsin home field advantage. Wisconsin is 41-15 at home this decade. Penn State is 13-25 on the road in that time span. Sure, Penn State had a few down years, but you get the picture. Wisconsin is 5-2 all time at home against Penn State with both losses by 3 points.

The beautiful thing about college football is that with all the close heartbreaking losses and the disappointments that come with them, one win can make everything better. One win can turn an entire season around. A win here and 1-2 in the Big 10 puts them right back into the thick of things and gets them a whole lot of National publicity to boot (always helps the recruiting).

Certainly Penn State looked great their first 4 games this year but the margins tightened a bit once they got into Big 10 play. Illinois played them tough at Penn State with the score 24-17 and the game up for grabs heading into the 4th quarter and they led Purdue just 10-0 at the half last week.

Look for a huge effort from the Badgers this week. Remember, things aren't always what they seem. Already this year we have seen USC, Florida and Georgia go down. Why not upset the apple cart a little more this week. 3* Wisconsin +6 (note - if 6.5 becomes available we'd recommend buying it up to +7)





3* Texas +7 over Oklahoma - Looking at the early season schedules of some of the better teams in the country reminds me of the way heavyweight boxers are brought along with the padded records in order to gain a title shot. You know, they fight a bunch of tomato cans, get a record of 20-0, with some hype to go along with it and then 9 times out of 10 they are exposed in the big fight.

Both of these teams schedules get much tougher starting this week. Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, all await. The combined record of their opponents to date is 23-31. Approaching the game you'll here the ESPN chatterboxes talking about how great these teams are, how they are undefeated, blah, blah, blah. They may be great, but they'll need to prove it. Don't get to carried away with the results to date. Both are still untested.

Both squads delivered when they had to step it up a notch, with Texas over Colorado and Oklahoma over TCU. But clearly this is a huge test for both teams. In such a long standing rivalry between two teams you'd expect to look at past results and see a ton of games decided by a touchdown or less. No the case here. Not in recent history anyway. As a matter of fact last year was the first year in over a decade that the game wasn't decided by double digits. There was some flat out routes within the last 5 years. How about 65-13 Oklahoma in 2003. Or 45-12 Texas in 2005. Huge margins considering neither team has had a losing record in that time with both routinely winning 11 and 12 games a year.

You can break this game down and make both squads look great by highlighting some fantastic numbers. Such as Texas having yet to allow a rushing touchdown or either teams great offensive averages. But remember, these are two very good football teams that have played very soft schedules. Of course the stats are going to look good. Many are also quick to point out that the Texas pass defense is suspect. But that is also misleading as they haven't played a close game yet. When a team is way out in front in it's games it forces opponents to throw the ball frequently. The same can be said about both teams. Both have stifled opponents on the ground while both have given up more through the air as both built big early leads forcing their opponents to throw. While Texas has given up a few more yards through the air, you simply can't use that as a comparison of the two teams pass defenses.

Both teams have great QB's. McCoy had a great year in 2006 for Texas and was down a notch last year, but appears to be back in form this year. Likewise Bradford had a great first year for Oklahoma and continues to look good this year. McCoy has played well in this game two years in a row, winning it in 2006 and losing it last year. He's become a threat on the ground as well as he leads the Longhorns in rushing. (Last year he was -24 yards rushing in this game. Expect that to change this week.) He's not throwing into double coverage the way he did a year ago where Texas losses can be traced to McCoys picks. Given the choice right now at this stage of their careers we'd choose McCoy over Bradford. But the margin is slim.

This is a huge game for many reasons. The number one ranking Oklahoma holds is on the line. The Big 12 title picture is on the line. The National Title is on the line. The Heisman trophy is on the line. Yeah, it's a big game. Given the talent level of these two teams not only this year but historically, as well as all that's on the line here, we'll gladly take the touchdown with the Longhorns here in a game they can win straight up. 27 years or so of betting college football tells us we'd be ahead long term taking the touchdown in this spot. Every year the "situations" stay the same in college ball. Only the team names change. We've seen similar situations countless times. As recently as Alabama at Georgia this year. Can anyone point to an obvious mismatch anywhere in this game? Most folks are torn on who the straight up winner will be. Both returned just about an equal number of starters on offense and defense this year including both QB's and both lost a couple of key contributors from a year ago, but only 7 points separated these two last year and there's no evidence to suggest more than that will separate them this year. 3* Texas +7
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><td valign="top">Computer Crushers</td><td valign="top" align="right">Guaranteed Selections</td></tr></tbody></table><table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"></td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">10/8/2008</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2"> </td></tr><tr><td colspan="2">500K BIG EAST CONFERENCE CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
112 WEst Virginia -24 12 NOON EST</td></tr></tbody></table>


FYI, Pat White is not starting for WVa
 

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Northcoast week 6 Comp Line Plays: Button #9 plays last week a perfect 7-0

Monday Early Bird POW Button #9 Texas Tech -19.5 I played it Monday at -20 Now at -21
Tuesday Pow. Plays 4* POW Button #9 is Ohio St.-19
Tuesday UderDog POW Button #3 is on Mississippi St +2.5 (Lots of Cappers on this play this week)
Wednesday Economy #2 play Button #9 is on So. Carolina Pickem
Wednesday Big Dog POW is on Rutgers +9/ML +265 Now down to +8 and mostly +7.5 (will be at 7 by Saturday, possibly 6.5 by gametime)
Thursday PAC10/ #9 is on Oregon State Univ.-30
Thursday NFL Total POW bUTTON #3 is on OVER 44.5 Jets/Bengals
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NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 7 – Games to Watch

East Carolina vs Virginia (10/11 12P)

East Carolina came out of the gate in the 2008 season with two huge upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. These wins moved the Pirates into the top 15, but after that they escaped Tulane with a close win before losing two straight to North Carolina State and Houston. That made three straight disappointing efforts heading into their bye week. Their defense has become much more porous since losing linebacker Quentin Cotton during the Tulane game. They allowed 30 points to the Wolfpack and 41 to the Cougars. The Pirates' offense is led by QB Patrick Pickney, who has completed almost 70% of his passes and compiled over 1,000 yards.

Virginia was looking awful heading into last week's ACC match up with Maryland, but the Cavaliers pulled out a stunning 31-0 upset over the Terrapins. Virginia QB Marc Verica made his third start since Peter Lalich was kicked off the team, and he displayed the ability to run the Cavs offense by completing 25 of 34 passes for 226 yards with two touchdowns through the air. The Cavalier defense pitched their second shutout of the season, but they still allowed over 300 yards to the Terrapins.

East Carolina is coming off two losses and a bye week as they travel to Charlottesville. Skip Holtz should have his team prepared to bounce back from those disappointments. The Pirates opened as -4.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has moved to East Carolina -6.5 as they are receiving around 70% of spread bets from the books tracked by Sports Insights. The line movement triggered multiple Steam Moves from books with positive results. We'll take a hungry Pirates team looking to prove itself against a Cavalier team coming off a huge blowout win.

East Carolina -6.5

Tennessee vs Georgia (10/11 3:30P)

Tennessee is struggling this season as they sit at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in SEC play. The Volunteers are coming off a sloppy 13-9 win over Northern Illinois. Sophomore Nick Stephens made his first collegiate start in that game and was effective enough to earn the win. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 156 yards and one touchdown. The Volunteers also plan to utilize WR Gerald Jones' athleticism with a direct snap formation. The defense was effective against Northern Illinois as they held the Huskies to three field goals.

Georgia's bye week gave the Bulldogs an extra week to prepare for this SEC matchup after being blown out by Alabama at home two weeks ago. Head Coach Mark Richt was tougher on his team over the last two weeks due to a habit of committing costly penalties. They are averaging 87.4 penalty yards per game on the season. Tailback and Heisman Trophy candidate Knowshon Moreno is expected to play through an elbow injury. He is hoping to fare better against the Volunteers than he did last season when he produced a career-low 30 yards on 13 carries.

Georgia opened as -13 favorites at Pinnacle as Tennessee travels to play between the hedges. The line moved to Georgia -12 shortly after opening, and it has remained there across the marketplace. We like the line moving down in Georgia's favor as they're coming off that huge loss to Alabama. We'll take the Dawgs when there are still some books, such as SIA, offering Georgia -12.

Georgia -12 (SIA)


Middle Tennessee State vs Florida International (10/4 9PM)

Middle Tennessee shocked many people with a win against Maryland earlier in the season. Since then they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their three games, only winning against lowly Florida Atlantic 14-13. The Blue Raiders needed a late touchdown to pull out that win at home. The MTSU defense has forced 12 turnovers on the season, while the offense has committed 8. The Blue Raiders are currently 0-2 on the road.

Florida International plays their second home game in their new FIU stadium. In their home opener the Golden Panthers hung with then-No. 12 South Florida before falling 17-9. Since that close loss, FIU has won two roads games by convincing scores over Toledo and North Texas. Freshman T.Y. Hilton is a big play WR. He has 284 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 8 receptions for the season. He also gets the occasional carry, but he has yet to break a long run.

The game opened as a Pick at Pinnacle and other books tracked by Sports Insights, but it has since moved to Florida International -2 at most books. There isn't a huge discrepancy in the public betting percentages, but the Golden Panthers are receiving 54% of spread bets. Florida International has received multiple Steam Move triggers from books with winning records. We're going to follow the Steam and take the Golden Panthers at home only giving up a few points.

Florida International -2

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.

Games to Watch (8-7)
East Carolina -6.5
Georgia -12 (SIA)
Florida International -2
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ATS Lock Club underdog is stanford? I haven't watched them play much, but i have seen arizona.

Does everyone else like this pick?
 

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Lenny Stevens

20 Big 12 GOY MIZZ
10 Baylor...So. Car...NWestern

any purelock or underdog??
 
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Dominic Brando:

Saturday October 18th NCAA College Football Executive Report:

NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #125 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS -2/-115 over Kentucky
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #142 MISSOURI TIGERS -13/-125 over Oklahoma State Cowboys
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #144 GEORGIA BULLDOGS -12/-115 over Tennessee Volunteers
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #152 NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS -7/-130 over Notre Dame Irish
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #172 TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -20/-115 over Nebraska
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #176 WISCONSIN BADGERS +7/-120 over Penn State Nittany Lions
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #128 BUFFALO BULLS PICK/-120 over Western Michigan Broncos
 

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Larry Ness (ALL PLAYS SATURDAY)

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider:7-3 in FB '08

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts are again proving "it pays to be on the inside." They have been combining to produce winning selections for years on the net and FB '08 has been no exception. Larry's exclusive FB Insiders are 7-3 (70%) Y-T-D and his latest CFB Insider goes Saturday. Don't miss this chance to "get on the inside and win!"

UTEP


Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB: 10-2 since '05

Larry's LEGEND plays were previously available to only his personal clients. However, since making them available on the net, these exclusive plays have lived up to their moniker. His lone LEGEND play of CFB '08 (Penn St 45-14 ov Ore St), ups Larry's record to 10-2 (83.3%) in the CFB regular season since '05. Can you afford to miss this one?


Georgia




Larry Ness' Rivalry 9*

Larry features one of his classic LEGEND plays on Saturday (10-2 in CFB's reg season s/'05) but that doesn't mean it's his "ONLY play!" Traditionally, Rivalry Weekend comes in Nov but why wait til then, when a truly great "betting opportunity" is available this Saturday? Need the perfect compliment to Larry's LEGEND play? THIS IS IT!"

Oklahoma



Larry Ness' CFB Bailout Blowout (TV game)
Larry's CFB 'card' features his latest Las Vegas Insider (7-3 TY), his 20* Rivalry GOY, a rare LEGEND play (10-2 since '05!) plus his Bailout Game of the Month. Need that "one late game" to either MAKE or SAVE your CFB Saturday? Then look no further than Larry's Bailout Game of the Month.


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Rewyan expert's

Vanderbilt -1.5
Utah -22
Illinois -11
Toledo +16
East Carolina -6
Iowa -5
Totals:
Syracuse/West Virginia Over 48
Minnesota U/Illinois Under 57.5
Michigan State/NorthWestern Over 47.5
Texas/Oklahoma Over 56
Kansas State/Texas A&M Over 58.5
Notre Dame/North Carolina Over 46.5
Arizona State/USC Over 47
 
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Kelso Club Picks

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Chairman
10 units Mich -16.5
10 units ECU -6.5
5 units Parlay above

Best Bets
5 units Illinois -12.5
4 units Iowa State +5
3 units UTEP -4
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Advance Analysis
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
3*North Carolina
3*New Mexico
2*Toledo
2*Nebraska
2*Central Florida
1*Minn
1*Texas
1*Vanderbilt
1*Purdue
1*Colorado
1*LSU
1*Utah St.
1*Idaho
1*North Texas
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