Bettersworld
3* Wisconsin +6 over Penn State - One word comes to mind when we think of Wisconsin. Desperate. It's safe to say the season hangs in the balance this week as JoePa and the Nittany Lions come to town as Wisconsin is in danger of starting 0-3 in the Big 10. The Big 10 title already looks like a lost cause but a loss here would seal that deal. A big time bowl game is also slipping away. All this for a team that was 9-4 a year ago and returned many key pieces to the puzzle from a year ago. This was a decent team a year ago that was only outclassed twice and figured to be improved this year.
What makes it all the more difficult to swallow is that Wisconsin could have won both games they lost this year. They controlled the clock against Michigan and moved the ball on the ground and thru the air for 384 total yards. Ahead 19-0 at the half and 19-7 after 3, they couldn't hold on turning the ball over and allowing 3 Michigan scores in the 4th quarter. Despite their poor performance in the 2nd half they still had chances to win it but failed.
Wisky regrouped to host one of the two teams to outclass them a year ago, Ohio State, last week. Last year saw Ohio State won 38-17. But last week, the game was dead even right across the board. Just about every major category, dead even. It came down to who could make the big plays at the end of the game, and that was Ohio State, scoring on their final drive and then intercepting Allan Evridge on Wisky's final drive to end the game.
Clearly Wisconsin has closed the gap between them and Ohio State. Ohio State, Wisky and Penn State all have similar make ups this year as far as who returned from a year ago. All lost QB's and returned just about everyone else. Both beat Wisky decisively a year ago. Wisky closed the gap one, why not the other.
The 8pm est. start time and the National TV audience only add to the already significant Wisconsin home field advantage. Wisconsin is 41-15 at home this decade. Penn State is 13-25 on the road in that time span. Sure, Penn State had a few down years, but you get the picture. Wisconsin is 5-2 all time at home against Penn State with both losses by 3 points.
The beautiful thing about college football is that with all the close heartbreaking losses and the disappointments that come with them, one win can make everything better. One win can turn an entire season around. A win here and 1-2 in the Big 10 puts them right back into the thick of things and gets them a whole lot of National publicity to boot (always helps the recruiting).
Certainly Penn State looked great their first 4 games this year but the margins tightened a bit once they got into Big 10 play. Illinois played them tough at Penn State with the score 24-17 and the game up for grabs heading into the 4th quarter and they led Purdue just 10-0 at the half last week.
Look for a huge effort from the Badgers this week. Remember, things aren't always what they seem. Already this year we have seen USC, Florida and Georgia go down. Why not upset the apple cart a little more this week. 3* Wisconsin +6 (note - if 6.5 becomes available we'd recommend buying it up to +7)
3* Texas +7 over Oklahoma - Looking at the early season schedules of some of the better teams in the country reminds me of the way heavyweight boxers are brought along with the padded records in order to gain a title shot. You know, they fight a bunch of tomato cans, get a record of 20-0, with some hype to go along with it and then 9 times out of 10 they are exposed in the big fight.
Both of these teams schedules get much tougher starting this week. Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, all await. The combined record of their opponents to date is 23-31. Approaching the game you'll here the ESPN chatterboxes talking about how great these teams are, how they are undefeated, blah, blah, blah. They may be great, but they'll need to prove it. Don't get to carried away with the results to date. Both are still untested.
Both squads delivered when they had to step it up a notch, with Texas over Colorado and Oklahoma over TCU. But clearly this is a huge test for both teams. In such a long standing rivalry between two teams you'd expect to look at past results and see a ton of games decided by a touchdown or less. No the case here. Not in recent history anyway. As a matter of fact last year was the first year in over a decade that the game wasn't decided by double digits. There was some flat out routes within the last 5 years. How about 65-13 Oklahoma in 2003. Or 45-12 Texas in 2005. Huge margins considering neither team has had a losing record in that time with both routinely winning 11 and 12 games a year.
You can break this game down and make both squads look great by highlighting some fantastic numbers. Such as Texas having yet to allow a rushing touchdown or either teams great offensive averages. But remember, these are two very good football teams that have played very soft schedules. Of course the stats are going to look good. Many are also quick to point out that the Texas pass defense is suspect. But that is also misleading as they haven't played a close game yet. When a team is way out in front in it's games it forces opponents to throw the ball frequently. The same can be said about both teams. Both have stifled opponents on the ground while both have given up more through the air as both built big early leads forcing their opponents to throw. While Texas has given up a few more yards through the air, you simply can't use that as a comparison of the two teams pass defenses.
Both teams have great QB's. McCoy had a great year in 2006 for Texas and was down a notch last year, but appears to be back in form this year. Likewise Bradford had a great first year for Oklahoma and continues to look good this year. McCoy has played well in this game two years in a row, winning it in 2006 and losing it last year. He's become a threat on the ground as well as he leads the Longhorns in rushing. (Last year he was -24 yards rushing in this game. Expect that to change this week.) He's not throwing into double coverage the way he did a year ago where Texas losses can be traced to McCoys picks. Given the choice right now at this stage of their careers we'd choose McCoy over Bradford. But the margin is slim.
This is a huge game for many reasons. The number one ranking Oklahoma holds is on the line. The Big 12 title picture is on the line. The National Title is on the line. The Heisman trophy is on the line. Yeah, it's a big game. Given the talent level of these two teams not only this year but historically, as well as all that's on the line here, we'll gladly take the touchdown with the Longhorns here in a game they can win straight up. 27 years or so of betting college football tells us we'd be ahead long term taking the touchdown in this spot. Every year the "situations" stay the same in college ball. Only the team names change. We've seen similar situations countless times. As recently as Alabama at Georgia this year. Can anyone point to an obvious mismatch anywhere in this game? Most folks are torn on who the straight up winner will be. Both returned just about an equal number of starters on offense and defense this year including both QB's and both lost a couple of key contributors from a year ago, but only 7 points separated these two last year and there's no evidence to suggest more than that will separate them this year. 3* Texas +7
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