VEGAS EXPERTS
East Carolina at Virginia
Saturday, October 11th, 12:00 ET
East Carolina (3-2) opened the season with consecutive underdog wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but since then it has been all downhill as they struggled to beat Tulane and then lost outright to both NC State and Houston. Off a bye, look for the Pirates to respond against Virginia, as we find ECU at 7-0 against the spread when coming off a SU loss by 14 or more as a favorite. Virginia was outscored 128-20 in its first three games vs. lined opponents.
Play on: East Carolina
East Carolina at Virginia
Saturday, October 11th, 12:00 ET
East Carolina (3-2) opened the season with consecutive underdog wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but since then it has been all downhill as they struggled to beat Tulane and then lost outright to both NC State and Houston. Off a bye, look for the Pirates to respond against Virginia, as we find ECU at 7-0 against the spread when coming off a SU loss by 14 or more as a favorite. Virginia was outscored 128-20 in its first three games vs. lined opponents.
Play on: East Carolina
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Jack Clayton</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers goofed on one of Saturday's games, a spot ripe for pickin' if you like to play underdogs. Find out all the details on this overvalued favorite, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when this live dog covers! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/9/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>4* Nebraska (171) at Texas Tech: Nebraska still has a work in progress defense, but this offense is very strong. And as good as Texas Tech is, they're not 20 points better than the Huskers. Nebraska has a strong offense with mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (9 TDs, 5 picks) and RB Marlon Lucky, averaging 33.4 points. Nebraska ranks No. 20 nationally in passing offense (270.4 yards per game) and No. 30 in scoring offense (33.4 points per game). Nebraska put up 333 total yards and 30 points in a 35-30 loss to Virginia Tech....and that was a season low in yards. QB Ganz said the Huskers need to be able to put up yards and points through the air. "I think we do need to run the ball, but we're capable of putting up big yards in the passing game," Ganz said. "We should be able to put up big numbers and kind of use the short passing game as the controlled running game. I know we need to be able to run the ball and I want to run the ball, but if we can't the passing game needs to pick it up." This game is even on too many levels and this line is out of whack. I'm looking at a game decided by single digits either way. Play Nebraska! </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers goofed on one of Saturday's games, a spot ripe for pickin' if you like to play underdogs. Find out all the details on this overvalued favorite, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when this live dog covers! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/9/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>4* Nebraska (171) at Texas Tech: Nebraska still has a work in progress defense, but this offense is very strong. And as good as Texas Tech is, they're not 20 points better than the Huskers. Nebraska has a strong offense with mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (9 TDs, 5 picks) and RB Marlon Lucky, averaging 33.4 points. Nebraska ranks No. 20 nationally in passing offense (270.4 yards per game) and No. 30 in scoring offense (33.4 points per game). Nebraska put up 333 total yards and 30 points in a 35-30 loss to Virginia Tech....and that was a season low in yards. QB Ganz said the Huskers need to be able to put up yards and points through the air. "I think we do need to run the ball, but we're capable of putting up big yards in the passing game," Ganz said. "We should be able to put up big numbers and kind of use the short passing game as the controlled running game. I know we need to be able to run the ball and I want to run the ball, but if we can't the passing game needs to pick it up." This game is even on too many levels and this line is out of whack. I'm looking at a game decided by single digits either way. Play Nebraska! </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
2 clayton's are from a good friend:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Jack Clayton</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on a 33-20 (62% run) run on all plays, which includes his Sunday Night GOY Winner on the Steelers/Jaguars over! Saturday he steps out with his top play, his College Football TV Game of the Year! Get all the details on this one-sided rout, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when it covers! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/9/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5* Texas/Oklahoma: Texas has new skill position players around QB Colt McCoy this season, and they also haven't been tested. In last year's meeting, Oklahoma rolled up 411 yards, and had the edge in rushing yards 170-61. McCoy has been turnover prone in his career and with a better offense coughed it up twice in last year's meeting, while Oklahoma had no TOs. Even in last week's rout of Colorado, McCoy threw 2 picks. This Oklahoma offense is even better than a year ago, with sophomore QB Sam Bradford (18 TDs, 3 picks), one that averages 50 points, 180 yards rushing and 320 passing. The ground game is loaded with sophomore RB DeMarco Murray and junior RB Chris Brown. The Sooners are also healthy, getting back injured defensive linemen Demarcus Granger and Frank Alexander back for this game. Oklahoma is 25-4 SU, 18-10-1 its last 29 as chalk. For the Red River Shootout, the Sooners have won the last three games when both teams were ranked in the top 5, most recently a 12-0 victory in 2004. They will win by double digits here. Play Oklahoma. </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Jack Clayton</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on a 33-20 (62% run) run on all plays, which includes his Sunday Night GOY Winner on the Steelers/Jaguars over! Saturday he steps out with his top play, his College Football TV Game of the Year! Get all the details on this one-sided rout, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when it covers! </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/9/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5* Texas/Oklahoma: Texas has new skill position players around QB Colt McCoy this season, and they also haven't been tested. In last year's meeting, Oklahoma rolled up 411 yards, and had the edge in rushing yards 170-61. McCoy has been turnover prone in his career and with a better offense coughed it up twice in last year's meeting, while Oklahoma had no TOs. Even in last week's rout of Colorado, McCoy threw 2 picks. This Oklahoma offense is even better than a year ago, with sophomore QB Sam Bradford (18 TDs, 3 picks), one that averages 50 points, 180 yards rushing and 320 passing. The ground game is loaded with sophomore RB DeMarco Murray and junior RB Chris Brown. The Sooners are also healthy, getting back injured defensive linemen Demarcus Granger and Frank Alexander back for this game. Oklahoma is 25-4 SU, 18-10-1 its last 29 as chalk. For the Red River Shootout, the Sooners have won the last three games when both teams were ranked in the top 5, most recently a 12-0 victory in 2004. They will win by double digits here. Play Oklahoma. </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Sat, 10/11/08 - 12:00 PMStephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet113 Iowa -5.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 114 Indiana
Analysis:
Iowa -5.5
Analysis: The Hawkeyes are superior in the trenches. I expect them to control both lines of scrimmage and get a spread cover.
Iowa has lost three straight games, falling to Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Michigan State by a combined nine points. The Hawkeyes out-gained each of those three teams, while averaging four more first downs than each foe.
Bad luck and turnovers have dogged the Hawkeyes. Iowa's defense can handle Indiana's spread offense. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13 points per game.
The Hawkeyes will pound away with good-looking running back Shonn Greene, who is averaging 158 yards rushing in his last two games.
The Hoosiers are 11-23-1 against the spread the past 35 times they've been an underdog.
double-dime bet113 Iowa -5.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 114 Indiana
Analysis:
Iowa -5.5
Analysis: The Hawkeyes are superior in the trenches. I expect them to control both lines of scrimmage and get a spread cover.
Iowa has lost three straight games, falling to Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Michigan State by a combined nine points. The Hawkeyes out-gained each of those three teams, while averaging four more first downs than each foe.
Bad luck and turnovers have dogged the Hawkeyes. Iowa's defense can handle Indiana's spread offense. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13 points per game.
The Hawkeyes will pound away with good-looking running back Shonn Greene, who is averaging 158 yards rushing in his last two games.
The Hoosiers are 11-23-1 against the spread the past 35 times they've been an underdog.
Sat, 10/11/08 - 3:30 PMKing Creole | CFB Side
triple-dime bet144 Georgia -12.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 143 Tennessee
Analysis: 3:30pm ET / Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs / #144
3*** BEST BET on: GEORGIA BULLDOGS minus the points
This game has EVERYTHING that we look for in a 4* or 5* Best Bet. We have an ANGRY yet focused home team... playing with REST... in a DOUBLE-Revenge situation... that looks to get back into the TOP 5 in the Country. Two weeks ago, Georgia's hopes for an unbeaten National Championship went up in smoke as they lost OUTRIGHT at home to Alabama (41-30) as favorite of -6.5 points. That was after starting off the season by reeling off 4 straight wins. They need a whipping boy on Saturday, and there's a tailor-made one in Tennessee... who's on a down year thus far. With the added incentive of double REVENGE, we have no problems laying the double-digit points on Saturday.
In the last 2 years, ALL Conference home favorites that are playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT loss as a fav of -6 > points are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS (GEORGIA). Larger favs of -7 or more are 14-3 ATS in the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS when playing with rest.
Now let's look at teams that just lost their first game of the year after reeling off multiple wins in a row.
11-0 ATS in the last 20 years: ALL Conference favs of -3 > points in Game Six or greater off their FIRST loss of the year... if that loss was by 10 or more points at HOME (GEORGIA).... and they are taking on an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee).
The Volunteers BARELY escaped with a win last week in which they should have DESTROYED Northern Illinois (won 13-9 as home favs of -16.5 points).
In the last 10 years, ALL conference road underdogs of < 14 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS off a SU non-conference home win of 4 < points in which they were a B-I-G fav of -14 or more points (Tennessee).
Tennessee's offense is definitely in the doldrums lately. Untested sophomore QB Jonathan Crompton has been stinking up the joint with a TD/INT ratio of only 2-4 on the year. He had only 1 TD last week against the Huskies... and was backed up by ONLY 69 rushing yards by his offense. The Volunteers come in with three straight games in which they have scored only 13 or less points.
SEC road dogs of +28 or less points are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS after scoring 13 or less points in EACH of their last 3 games (Tennessee).
An angry BUT focused home favorite playing with rest AND revenge is always a great 'play ON' situation.
6-1 ATS in the last 3 years for all Conference home favs of greater than 3 points playing with REST and REVENGE.
9-2 ATS since 2004 for ALL Conference home favs of -12 > points playing with REST off a SU loss in Game Six or greater, Bring in an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee), and the numbers improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS
triple-dime bet144 Georgia -12.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 143 Tennessee
Analysis: 3:30pm ET / Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs / #144
3*** BEST BET on: GEORGIA BULLDOGS minus the points
This game has EVERYTHING that we look for in a 4* or 5* Best Bet. We have an ANGRY yet focused home team... playing with REST... in a DOUBLE-Revenge situation... that looks to get back into the TOP 5 in the Country. Two weeks ago, Georgia's hopes for an unbeaten National Championship went up in smoke as they lost OUTRIGHT at home to Alabama (41-30) as favorite of -6.5 points. That was after starting off the season by reeling off 4 straight wins. They need a whipping boy on Saturday, and there's a tailor-made one in Tennessee... who's on a down year thus far. With the added incentive of double REVENGE, we have no problems laying the double-digit points on Saturday.
In the last 2 years, ALL Conference home favorites that are playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT loss as a fav of -6 > points are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS (GEORGIA). Larger favs of -7 or more are 14-3 ATS in the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS when playing with rest.
Now let's look at teams that just lost their first game of the year after reeling off multiple wins in a row.
11-0 ATS in the last 20 years: ALL Conference favs of -3 > points in Game Six or greater off their FIRST loss of the year... if that loss was by 10 or more points at HOME (GEORGIA).... and they are taking on an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee).
The Volunteers BARELY escaped with a win last week in which they should have DESTROYED Northern Illinois (won 13-9 as home favs of -16.5 points).
In the last 10 years, ALL conference road underdogs of < 14 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS off a SU non-conference home win of 4 < points in which they were a B-I-G fav of -14 or more points (Tennessee).
Tennessee's offense is definitely in the doldrums lately. Untested sophomore QB Jonathan Crompton has been stinking up the joint with a TD/INT ratio of only 2-4 on the year. He had only 1 TD last week against the Huskies... and was backed up by ONLY 69 rushing yards by his offense. The Volunteers come in with three straight games in which they have scored only 13 or less points.
SEC road dogs of +28 or less points are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS after scoring 13 or less points in EACH of their last 3 games (Tennessee).
An angry BUT focused home favorite playing with rest AND revenge is always a great 'play ON' situation.
6-1 ATS in the last 3 years for all Conference home favs of greater than 3 points playing with REST and REVENGE.
9-2 ATS since 2004 for ALL Conference home favs of -12 > points playing with REST off a SU loss in Game Six or greater, Bring in an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee), and the numbers improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS
** NCAA NEWSLETTERS **
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (4-1-1)...ARMY
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (4-1)...Baylor
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (4-1)...Arkansas
HQ REPORT 5* (4-1-1)...Penn State
HQ REPORT ATS (4-2)...South Carolina
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-2)...Louisiana Tech
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (5-1)...Florida
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-1)...Northwestern
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY (3-1)...
COLD
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (2-6)...Memphis, MissState, Notre Dame, TxAM
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-4)...Miami(ohio)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-5)...Miami(florida)
POINTWISE 2* (1-6)...Illinois
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (1-3)...Mississippi State
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (1-1)...Utah State
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (10-8-1)...Memphis, Indiana, Utah
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)...Arizona State
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-2)...South Carolina
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...Illinois
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
HQ REPORT 4* (0-0)...
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-4)...Nebraska/Texas Tech Over
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...Minnesota
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-6-1)...SouthMiss, Oregon, Northwestern
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (3-4)...Notre Dame, Nevada-Reno, Arkansas State
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-2)...Colorado
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (3-3)...Mississippi State
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...Buffalo (ncaa)
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (4-5)...Wisconsin, Mississippi State
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (2-0)...Oregon
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)...Central Michigan
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (47-32)...West Virginia, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Oregon, Auburn, NIllinois, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Miami(florida), Florida, UTEP, Fresno State, FIU, Hawaii
POINTWISE 1* (6-6)...Tulsa, Texas Tech
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...Oklahoma
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (8-10)... E.Carolina, Georgia, FIU
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (10-13-1)...Rutgers, Mississippi State, Texas Tech
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)...Ohio State, Florida, Ball State
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (2-2)...Air Force
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (12-12-1)...Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin, Clemson
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...
THE GOLD SHEET (10-14)...Minnesota, WMichigan, Vandy, OregonSt
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (16-10)...SCarolina, UCLA, Nevada, TTech
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-10-1)...Texas Tech, Army, Oregon State
THE RED SHEET 89* (7-4-1)...Air Force, Mississippi State
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...Mississippi State
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (1-2)...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (8-4)...Mississippi State, Iowa
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (10-16)...Oklahoma, NIllinois, Penn State, Georgia
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (4-1-1)...ARMY
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (4-1)...Baylor
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (4-1)...Arkansas
HQ REPORT 5* (4-1-1)...Penn State
HQ REPORT ATS (4-2)...South Carolina
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-2)...Louisiana Tech
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (5-1)...Florida
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-1)...Northwestern
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY (3-1)...
COLD
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (2-6)...Memphis, MissState, Notre Dame, TxAM
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-4)...Miami(ohio)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-5)...Miami(florida)
POINTWISE 2* (1-6)...Illinois
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (1-3)...Mississippi State
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (1-1)...Utah State
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (10-8-1)...Memphis, Indiana, Utah
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)...Arizona State
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-2)...South Carolina
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...Illinois
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
HQ REPORT 4* (0-0)...
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-4)...Nebraska/Texas Tech Over
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...Minnesota
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-6-1)...SouthMiss, Oregon, Northwestern
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (3-4)...Notre Dame, Nevada-Reno, Arkansas State
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-2)...Colorado
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (3-3)...Mississippi State
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...Buffalo (ncaa)
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (4-5)...Wisconsin, Mississippi State
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (2-0)...Oregon
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)...Central Michigan
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (47-32)...West Virginia, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Oregon, Auburn, NIllinois, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Miami(florida), Florida, UTEP, Fresno State, FIU, Hawaii
POINTWISE 1* (6-6)...Tulsa, Texas Tech
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...Oklahoma
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (8-10)... E.Carolina, Georgia, FIU
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (10-13-1)...Rutgers, Mississippi State, Texas Tech
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)...Ohio State, Florida, Ball State
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (2-2)...Air Force
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (12-12-1)...Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Wisconsin, Clemson
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...
THE GOLD SHEET (10-14)...Minnesota, WMichigan, Vandy, OregonSt
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (16-10)...SCarolina, UCLA, Nevada, TTech
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-10-1)...Texas Tech, Army, Oregon State
THE RED SHEET 89* (7-4-1)...Air Force, Mississippi State
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...Mississippi State
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (1-2)...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (8-4)...Mississippi State, Iowa
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (10-16)...Oklahoma, NIllinois, Penn State, Georgia
DA STICK
5 units Mississippi State +3
5 units Florida International -2
10 units Oklahoma -6.5
10 units underdog game of the week Notre Dame +8.5
15 units Penn State -6
15 units Northwestern +1.5
20 units Game of the Year Florida -6
10 units teaser of the week Texas Tech -11, USC -18, Florida +4
MLB
10 units Philadelphia Phillies +141<!-- / message -->
5 units Mississippi State +3
5 units Florida International -2
10 units Oklahoma -6.5
10 units underdog game of the week Notre Dame +8.5
15 units Penn State -6
15 units Northwestern +1.5
20 units Game of the Year Florida -6
10 units teaser of the week Texas Tech -11, USC -18, Florida +4
MLB
10 units Philadelphia Phillies +141<!-- / message -->
200 Unit College Football Game of the Year
Kelso Sturgeon Football
Saturday, October 11
Home Team In CAPS
All Starting Times Eastern
* * *
Starting Time: 9:30
TV: MTN
Weather in San Diego: Clear with game-time temperature of 60 degrees, relative humidity of 54% and wind out of the west at 15 PMPH.
Comments: First of all, when I find a game that can be released at the 200-unit level, the team I am using must have the ability to absolutely dominate the other team on both sides of the ball. Air Force (3-2) is in that position against a poorly coached San Diego State (1-4) team that has been decimated by injuries, losing 15 players for the entire season, seven of them starters. Things went from bad to worst this week when it was announced San Diego State’s starting quarterback Ryan Lindley had not recovered from a shoulder injury incurred at TCU last week and would miss this game.His replacement is adequate but adequate does not get it done against Air Force,
The team I am using also has to be so dominating that it can play its worse game of the season and still win and cover. Air Force fills that bill too.
These two things are just the beginning of the process, which has 47 different points of analysis. A team must grade out on top in at least 40 of those categories to even be considered. This is no shot in the dark.
As I have pointed previously I completed a five-year study in February that really opened my eyes to why college and National Football League teams win or lose. There was a silver bullet that came out of the NFL study (passing and pass defense) but the college game came out of the process in a bit more complicated fashion.
Results of the college study said that version of the game rested on one thing—talent and lots of it—and that the talent factor could be revealed with the combined facts contained in five different elements--quarterback vs. quarterback, running game vs. running game, did a team have a game-breaker, the experience of the offensive line and the quality of each team’s defense.
Here is the grade card for Air Force and San Diego State this week.
GRADE CARD FOR 200-UNIT GAME OF YEAR
( Each Team Is Rated On A Scale Of From 0 to 10, with 10 Being The Best Figure)
ANALYSIS CATEGORY AIR FORCE SAN DIEGO STATE
Quarterback 7.0 3.0
Running Game 10.0 0.0
Game Breaker None None
Offensive Line 7.0 3.0
Quality Of Defense 8.0 2.0
In addition to this it has not been lost on me San Diego State has beaten only Idaho, a 1-5 team that is simply non-competitive and which gives up 47.3 points and 502.8 yards per game The Aztecs even lost to I-AA Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, 29-27.
It also is comforting to know Air Force always comes to play and brings the heat from the get-go. It also is a major plus Air Force, which opened the season 3-0, comes into this off back-to-back losses—to unbeaten Utah, 30-23, and to Navy last week, 33-27.
This game has blow-out written all over it and I do look for at least a 35-point win.
__________________
College Football Game Of The Year
200 Units
Air Force (-10 ½) over SAN DIEGO STATE
Prediction: Air Force by 35
Kelso Sturgeon Football
Saturday, October 11
Home Team In CAPS
All Starting Times Eastern
* * *
Starting Time: 9:30
TV: MTN
Weather in San Diego: Clear with game-time temperature of 60 degrees, relative humidity of 54% and wind out of the west at 15 PMPH.
Comments: First of all, when I find a game that can be released at the 200-unit level, the team I am using must have the ability to absolutely dominate the other team on both sides of the ball. Air Force (3-2) is in that position against a poorly coached San Diego State (1-4) team that has been decimated by injuries, losing 15 players for the entire season, seven of them starters. Things went from bad to worst this week when it was announced San Diego State’s starting quarterback Ryan Lindley had not recovered from a shoulder injury incurred at TCU last week and would miss this game.His replacement is adequate but adequate does not get it done against Air Force,
The team I am using also has to be so dominating that it can play its worse game of the season and still win and cover. Air Force fills that bill too.
These two things are just the beginning of the process, which has 47 different points of analysis. A team must grade out on top in at least 40 of those categories to even be considered. This is no shot in the dark.
As I have pointed previously I completed a five-year study in February that really opened my eyes to why college and National Football League teams win or lose. There was a silver bullet that came out of the NFL study (passing and pass defense) but the college game came out of the process in a bit more complicated fashion.
Results of the college study said that version of the game rested on one thing—talent and lots of it—and that the talent factor could be revealed with the combined facts contained in five different elements--quarterback vs. quarterback, running game vs. running game, did a team have a game-breaker, the experience of the offensive line and the quality of each team’s defense.
Here is the grade card for Air Force and San Diego State this week.
GRADE CARD FOR 200-UNIT GAME OF YEAR
( Each Team Is Rated On A Scale Of From 0 to 10, with 10 Being The Best Figure)
ANALYSIS CATEGORY AIR FORCE SAN DIEGO STATE
Quarterback 7.0 3.0
Running Game 10.0 0.0
Game Breaker None None
Offensive Line 7.0 3.0
Quality Of Defense 8.0 2.0
In addition to this it has not been lost on me San Diego State has beaten only Idaho, a 1-5 team that is simply non-competitive and which gives up 47.3 points and 502.8 yards per game The Aztecs even lost to I-AA Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, 29-27.
It also is comforting to know Air Force always comes to play and brings the heat from the get-go. It also is a major plus Air Force, which opened the season 3-0, comes into this off back-to-back losses—to unbeaten Utah, 30-23, and to Navy last week, 33-27.
This game has blow-out written all over it and I do look for at least a 35-point win.
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College Football Game Of The Year
200 Units
Air Force (-10 ½) over SAN DIEGO STATE
Prediction: Air Force by 35
