<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">SPORTS ADVISORS CFB
(5) Texas (5-0 SU and ATS) vs. (1) Oklahoma (5-0, 4-0 ATS), in Dallas
The marquee game of the week comes from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, where the Longhorns and Sooners enter their annual Red River Shootout ranked in the Top 5 for the first time since 2004.
Texas hasn’t been challenged this season, including last week when it went to Colorado and rolled to a 38-14 win, cashing as a 12-point road chalk. It was the lowest point total of the season for the Longhorns, who are averaging 47.2 points and 471.8 total yards per game. The ‘Horns defense isn’t too shabby either, ranking fourth in Division I-A in points allowed (11.4 per game).
Oklahoma went to Baylor last week and opened Big 12 play by routing the Bears 49-17 as a 25-point road chalk. The Sooners are racking up 49.6 points and 540 total yards per game, and their lowest point total this season came in a 35-10 win over TCU two weeks ago, but they still covered as 18½-point favorites in that contest.
Longhorns QB Colt McCoy is 25-6 in his career, and this season the junior has completed 79.2 percent of his throws for 1,280 yards, 16 TDs and just three INTs. His opposition is Oklahoma sophomore Sam Bradford, who has hit on 72.6 percent of his passes for 1,665 yards, 18 TDs and also just three INTs.
Oklahoma beat Texas 28-21 last season behind three TD passes from Bradford, but the Longhorns covered as 12-point ‘dogs. Texas leads this rivalry 57-40-5 SU and has gotten the cash in the last three after Oklahoma had covered in the previous five meetings. The last time both teams came in ranked in the Top 5 was in 2004, and the Sooners prevailed 12-0 as 7½-point favorites. The straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 years in this rivalry.
Texas is on ATS runs of 6-0 overall, 5-1 in neutral-site games, 11-5 in October and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Bob Stoops’ Sooners are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
For Texas, the over is on runs of 10-4 following a straight-up win, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 in Big 12 action. Oklahoma is 4-1 “over” in its last five overall, but the under is 14-4-1 in the Sooners’ last 19 conference games and 6-2 in its last eight October contests. Lastly, the under has been the play in the Red River Shootout the last two seasons after the over went 5-2 the previous seven years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(4) LSU (4-0, 1-2 ATS) at (11) Florida (4-1 SU and ATS)
The SEC’s game of the week comes from the Swamp in Gainesville, Fla., where the Gators look to knock LSU from the ranks of the unbeaten and avenge a bitter loss from last season.
Florida rebounded from a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss by routing Arkansas 38-7 last week, barely covering as a 26-point road favorite thanks to a 48-yard touchdown run with just over a minute to play. The Gators rolled up 514 total yards, including 278 on the ground, while the defense held Arkansas to 361 yards and forced two turnovers.
LSU, which is coming off a bye, opened SEC play with consecutive wins over Auburn (26-21 on the road) and Mississippi State (34-24 at home), though the Tigers failed to cover in the latter contest as a hefty 24-point chalk. LSU has won six straight games and is 23-2 SU in its last 25 going back to 2006.
Florida blew a trio of 10-point leads at LSU last year, falling 28-24 as an eight-point road underdog. LSU, which trailed the entire game, converted a pair of fourth-down plays on its final drive, scoring on a 2-yard run with just over a minute to play to steal the victory. The Tigers had a 36-24 edge in time of possession and finished with 391 total yards (247 rushing), while the defense gave up 314 yards (156 rushing) and forced two critical fourth-quarter turnovers to aid in the rally.
The home team has won each of the last three meetings, but the Gators are 3-0 ATS during this run and 7-2 ATS in the past nine against LSU. Going back to 2002, the underdog is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the visitor is 12-4 ATS in the past 16. Finally, three of the last four clashes were decided by four points or less, all LSU victories.
Both of these teams have very similar stats on both sides of the ball. Florida is averaging 35.5 points, 427.2 total yards and 206.5 rushing yards per game, while LSU is putting up 36 points, 390.2 total yards and 178.6 rushing yards per outing. Defensively, the Gators are yielding 11.4 points and 265 total yards per game (99.6 rushing ypg), while the Tigers are giving up 15.2 points and 260.8 total yards per game (69 rushing ypg). Florida QB Tim Tebow has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 1,025 passing yards, with an 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Tigers QBs Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee have combined for 861 passing yards, with six TDs and four INTs. LSU is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall, 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 on the highway and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 SEC contests. Meanwhile, Florida is on ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-5 on grass, 8-3 versus winning teams and 4-1 in league play.
The under is 10-2 in the last 12 Florida-LSU battles, including 5-0 in the last five in Gainesville. However, last year’s contest topped the total, and the over is on runs of 9-4 for Florida overall, 9-3 for Florida at home, 6-2 for Florida in SEC play, 10-2 for LSU overall, 4-0 for LSU on the road and 8-1 for LSU against conference foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(23) Michigan State (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at Northwestern (5-0, 2-2 ATS)
Two teams riding five-game winning streaks square off in a Big Ten showdown when the Spartans come calling at Ryan Field in Evanston, Ill., to take on Northwestern.Michigan State has rattled off five straight victories (3-2 ATS) since a season-opening 38-31 loss at Cal as a 6½-point road ‘dog. The Spartans’ defense stepped up with a key fourth-down stop in last week’s 16-13 home win over Iowa, but they failed to cash as six-point favorites. QB Brian Hoyer has thrown for 1,146 yards, but his four touchdown throws have been offset by three INTs.
Northwestern hasn’t been on the field since Sept. 27, when it upset Iowa 22-17 as a 9½-point road underdog. Last time they were at home, the Wildcats beat Ohio 16-8, but they failed to cash as a 10½-point chalk.The Wildcats scored a wild 48-41 overtime win last season at Michigan State, pulling off the upset as 15½-point ‘dogs. Northwestern has cashed in the last four series clashes and six of the last nine, all as an underdog. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 clashes.
The Spartans are on ATS slides of 8-17 in Big Ten contests, 2-7 in October and 1-5 following a bye week, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 when coming off a non-cover. Northwestern is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after an off week, but just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after a straight-up win and 0-4 ATS in its last four after an ATS win.
For Michigan State, the over is on runs of 35-16-1 on the highway, 5-1 after a bye week, 5-1 in October and 5-1 in Big Ten clashes. Meanwhile, for the Wildcats, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 4-1 in conference action and 4-0 at home. Also, the last two meetings in this rivalry have topped the total following a three-game under streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
South Carolina (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at Kentucky (4-1, 3-1 ATS)
Steve Spurrier takes his Gamecocks into Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., looking for an eighth straight victory over Kentucky in this SEC matchup.South Carolina is riding a three-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) after upsetting Mississippi 31-24 as a two-point road underdog a week ago. QB Chris Smelley threw for a career-high 327 yards and three TD passes in the victory, and the ‘Cocks defense held the Rebels to only three second-half points. South Carolina’s defense allows just 14.7 points and 245 yards per game, the latter figure ranking second in the SEC. Kentucky’s defense has been even stingier this season, allowing just 7.8 points and 114.4 rushing yards per game. However, the Wildcats had their four-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 17-14 loss at Alabama, though they easily got the cash as 15½-point underdogs. They allowed 282 rushing yards to the Crimson Tide, but 78 of those came on a first-quarter touchdown run by Alabama RB Glen Coffee. South Carolina has won eight in a row against Kentucky dating to 2000 (6-2 ATS), including last year’s 38-23 home win as a 4½-point favorite. The ‘Cocks are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS during that stretch. Spurrier’s boys are on ATS streaks of 10-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 8-3 following a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread slides of 3-7-1 overall, 1-5-1 in SEC action and 1-4 on the highway. Kentucky is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six at home but 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning record. For the Gamecocks, the under is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 25-10-1 on the road and 20-9 on the highway against teams with a winning home mark. It’s also been all unders for the Wildcats lately, including 4-0 overall, 4-1 in SEC games and 4-0 on grass. Finally, the under has been the play in the last four meetings between these two in Kentucky.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER
(13) Vanderbilt (5-0 SU and ATS) at Mississippi State (1-4, 2-2 ATS)
The Commodores will try to keep their perfect record intact when they travel to Starkville for an SEC showdown with Mississippi State.
Vanderbilt has been winning the close ones this season, with three of their five victories coming by seven points or less, including last week’s 14-13 home win over Auburn as a 4½-point ‘dog. In their last roadie, the Commodores scored a 23-17 win in Mississippi as seven-point pups despite getting outgained by 183 yards. Vandy is unbeaten despite averaging just 278.8 total yards of offense per game, including just 96 passing ypg. Mississippi State has dropped three straight (2-1 ATS) and four of five this season. In their most recent contest two weeks ago, the Bulldogs hung tough at LSU, losing 34-24 and easily cashing as 24-point underdogs. Freshman QB Tyson Lee threw for 175 yards and one TD in his first start at LSU, as the Bulldogs continued to struggle on offense, averaging just 16.2 ppg. These schools haven’t met since 2004, when Vandy rolled to a 31-13 home win as 11½-point favorites. However, Mississippi State is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series dating back to 1989, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home, and the favorite cashed in all five. Also, the straight-up winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Commodores are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 in SEC contests and 4-0 following a spread-cover. The Bulldogs are on ATS slides of 5-12 at home, 3-7-1 in October contests and 17-35-2 following a straight-up loss. It’s been all about the under for both these squads lately, with Vandy on under runs of 12-4-1 overall, 5-0 in October, 10-1-1 in SEC contests and 6-2-1 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile Mississippi State’s under streaks include 7-3 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 coming off a bye week. Finally, the under was the play in the last two clashes between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER
Purdue (2-3, 1-3 ATS) at (12) Ohio State (5-1, 1-4 ATS)
Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor will try to remain perfect as the Buckeyes’ starter as Ohio State goes for its fourth straight victory when it hosts Purdue at Ohio Stadium in Columbus. Pryor is a perfect 3-0 (1-2 ATS) since taking the reins of the offense back on Sept. 20, including last week’s come-from-behind 20-17 victory at Wisconsin, with the Buckeyes getting their first spread-cover of the season as a one-point road chalk. The youngster scored on an 11-yard TD run with 1:08 remaining to cap a 12-play, 80-yard drive. Pryor has thrown for 440 yards, five TDs and one INT while rushing for 312 yards and four TDs. Purdue has dropped its last two games, including a 20-6 decision at home to Penn State last Saturday, pushing as a 14-point home ‘dog. In their only road game this season, the Boilermakers got pounded at Notre Dame 38-21 as a two-point underdog. QB Curtis Painter is off to a slow start this year, completing just 57.6 percent of his throws for five TDs and five INTs. The senior was benched in the loss to Penn State, and he is 0-9 SU against ranked teams in his career. The Buckeyes have won eight of the last 10 overall against Purdue (6-4 ATS), and the Boilermakers haven’t won in Ohio Stadium since 1988. Last season, Ohio State cruised to a 23-7 victory as a seven-point road chalk, ending a streak of three straight spread-covers by Purdue. The straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in this Big Ten rivalry dating back to 1994. Purdue is mired in ATS funks of 1-5-1 overall, 3-14-1 in October games, 8-20-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-17-1 following a straight-up loss. Meanwhile Ohio State is in the midst of ATS slumps of 1-5 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-5 after a straight-up win, but the Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight October outings.
For the Boilermakers, the under is on runs of 35-16 in Big Ten play, 19-7 in October and 20-8-1 against teams with a winning record. For Ohio State, the under runs include 4-1 overall, 8-1 against teams with a losing record and 7-2 in October. Finally, the under has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(17) Oklahoma State (5-0, 4-0 ATS) at (3) Missouri (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
Two of the nation’s most high-powered offenses square off in Columbia, Mo., when Oklahoma State arrives to face Missouri in what figures to be a fast-paced Big 12 shootout. The Tigers hammered Nebraska 52-17 as a 10½-point road favorite last week, scoring all 52 points in the first three quarters and getting six TDs and a field goal in eight possessions. Missouri ranks third nationally in total offense (568.8 ypg) and second in scoring (53.4 ppg), and the Tigers have had 17 touchdown drives that have taken less than two minutes. Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel has completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 1,665 yards, with 15 TDs and just one INT. The Cowboys got a 56-28 home win over Texas A&M a week ago, cashing as a 26-point favorite. Oklahoma State’s offense has been just as sharp as Missouri’s, ranking third in the nation in scoring (52.6 ppg), sixth in total offense (530.2 ypg) and third in rushing offense (315.2 ypg). The Cowboys have had 13 TD drives that lasted two minutes or less, and sophomore RB Kendall Hunter is averaging 147.6 ypg, while QB Zac Robinson has thrown for 1,038 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Missouri has won five of the last six meetings with the Cowboys, including a 38-31 victory in their last meeting in 2005, cashing as a 5½-point favorite. The Tigers are on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll against OSU, but the Cowboys scored a 20-17 upset as a three-point underdog the last time they went to Columbia. Lastly, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings in the rivalry, dating back to 1992. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 in October. Meanwhile, Missouri is on a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 4-1 overall, 13-5 at home, 8-3 in Big 12 games, 4-1 in October and 10-4 following a SU victory. For Oklahoma State, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 31-14 in conference games, 23-9 following an ATS win, 10-2 in October and 5-1 when facing a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, for the Tigers, the over is on runs of 13-6 overall, 5-2 in Big 12 affairs and 10-4 following a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
Tennessee (2-3 SU and ATS) at (10) Georgia (4-1, 2-2 ATS)
Tennessee figures to have a tough time getting its struggling offense on track when it heads south for an SEC showdown against defensive-minded Georgia between the hedges. The Volunteers barely escaped lowly Northern Illinois 13-9 last week, never threatening to cover as a 16½-point home favorite. Tennessee, which is 0-2 SU and ATS in SEC play, has scored a total of 31 points in its last three games and is averaging just 18 points and 317.6 total yards per game for the season.
Georgia has had two weeks to lick its wounds following an ugly 41-30 home loss to Alabama as a 6½-point home favorite back on Sept. 27. The Bulldogs, who had surrendered a total of 55 points in winning their first four games of the season, fell behind the Tide 31-0 at halftime and were never in the contest. Despite the sorry performance against ‘Bama, Georgia’s defense is allowing just 19.2 points and 286.8 total yards per game, including 62.4 rushing ypg. Tennessee has thumped the Bulldogs the last two years, including a 35-14 home rout as a one-point home underdog in 2007. Prior to that contest, the visitor had won and covered four straight meetings in this rivalry. Finally, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of the last 10 clashes dating to 1998, and four of the last five meetings have been double-digit blowouts.
Prior to the loss to Alabama, Georgia had been on a 6-0-1 ATS run dating to last November, including four straight covers at home. The ‘Dogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 coming off a bye week, but 2-7 ATS in their last nine in October. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall, but 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven against a winning team and 14-8-1 ATS as an underdog since 2003. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these schools in Georgia. Also, the under is on streaks for Tennessee of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in SEC play and 11-5-1 in October. However, the over is 6-2 in the Vols’ last eight on the road and 5-2 in Georgia’s last seven at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Notre Dame (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (22) North Carolina (4-1, 3-1 ATS)
Two of the most surprising teams in college football hook up for a non-conference meeting in Chapel Hill, N.C., where the Tar Heels host Notre Dame. The Irish jumped out to a 28-7 lead last Saturday against Stanford, then held on for a 28-21 victory, barely cashing as a 6½-point home chalk. Notre Dame, which is on a 6-1 roll (5-2 ATS) going back to last year, had a 430-343 edge in total offense against the Cardinal and has scored 28 points or more in three of its last four games.
North Carolina pummeled Connecticut 38-12 as a 7½-point home favorite last week, despite getting outgained 378-263 and possessing the ball for less than 24 minutes. The Tar Heels had three interceptions, one of which was returned for a score, and also returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. These teams met in South Bend, Ind., in 2006, and Notre Dame rolled 45-26, but came up short as a 26-point home favorite.
North Carolina is on pointspread streaks 7-3 at home, 9-3 against winning teams, 5-1 in non-conference action and 4-1 in October. Meanwhile, the Irish are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 October contests, but otherwise are mired in pointspread funks of 12-21-1 overall, 5-9 as a ‘dog and 2-5 against the ACC. For Notre Dame, the under is on runs of 12-5 overall, 7-0 on the road, 6-0 against the ACC and 5-2 in October. Also, the under is 4-1 in UNC’s last five at Chapel Hill, but the Heels have topped the total in five of their last seven games overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%">Nebraska (3-2, 2-3 ATS) at (7) Texas Tech (5-0, 2-1 ATS)
Nebraska’s defense, which has surrendered 87 points the last two weeks at home, now hits the road for the first time this season to face another explosive offense in this Big 12 battle against Texas Tech. The Cornhuskers became the latest team to get torched by Chase Daniel and Missouri, yielding 462 total yards (201 on the ground) in last week’s 52-17 home defeat as a 10½-point home underdog. Nebraska, which lost 35-30 to Virginia Tech at home prior to the Missouri contest, gave up all 52 points last week in the first three quarters. Texas Tech opened Big 12 play in dominating fashion, crushing Kansas State 58-28 and easily covering as a seven-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are among six Big 12 teams ranked in the Top 7 in the nation in scoring offense, putting up 48.2 points per game and tallying at least 35 in all five contests. Texas Tech is also second nationally in total offense (583.4 ypg) and tops in the country in passing yards (2,195), thanks to the play of QB Graham Harrell (66.7 completion percentage, 2,027 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs). The last time Nebraska visited Lubbock, Texas, it gave up 523 yards and got trashed 70-10 as a 7½-point road underdog in 2004. The teams had a rematch a year later – the most recent meeting – in Lincoln, Neb., and the Red Raiders won 34-31, but the Huskers got the cash as a five-point underdog. Tech is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings dating to 1996. Nebraska is in ATS ruts of 4-12 overall, 1-7-1 on the highway, 2-8 against Big 12 foes, 2-10 versus winning teams, 1-4 as a road underdog and 1-5 in October. Conversely, the Red Raiders are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home contests, 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven on artificial turf and 36-17 ATS in their last 53 October contests. The under is on streaks of 5-2 for the Huskers on the road, 4-1 for the Huskers in October, 8-3 for Texas Tech overall, 5-0 for Texas Tech at home, 6-2 for Texas Tech in conference and 4-1 for Texas Tech in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and UNDER
(6) Penn State (6-0, 3-1-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
For the second straight week, the Big Ten’s marquee game comes from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis., with the Badgers hoping for a better outcome when they host sixth-ranked Penn State. Wisconsin followed up a crushing 27-25 loss at Michigan two weeks ago – the Badgers blew a 19-0 halftime lead – with another heartbreaking defeat last Saturday, falling 20-17 to Oho State as a one-point home underdog. Wisconsin got a touchdown with 6½ minutes to play to take a 17-13 lead, but Ohio State marched down the field and punched in the winning score with just over a minute to play. Penn State had its most sloppy game offensively last week at Purdue, but the defense stepped up and carried the team to a 20-6 victory, pushing as a 14-point favorite. The Nittany Lions, who averaged 49.8 points in their first five contests, produced just two touchdowns despite a 422-241 advantage in total offense. Joe Paterno’s troops have won seven straight games going back to last December’s bowl victory over Texas A&M, and Penn State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 contests. This series has belonged to the home team, which has won four straight meetings both SU and ATS and is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven. The favorite has cashed in each of the last five head-to-head tussles, and the SU winner has covered in each of the last nine battles since 1997. During that nine-game stretch, Penn State is 1-3 SU and ATS in Madison. Last week’s loss to Ohio State aside, the Badgers are still 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home games. However, they’re only 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-8 in their last 10 against Big Ten foes. Meanwhile, Penn State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against winning teams and 0-5-1 ATS in its last six in league play.
The last four meetings between these rivals have stayed under the total. The under is also on runs of 15-6 for Penn State in conference action, 6-2 for Penn State in October and 14-6 for Wisconsin when facing opponents with a winning record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
