Brent Brooks
Syracuse -6.5
The Pirates are in a world of hurt. A hodge podge of marginally talented second and third options that fade in and out of actually giving a damn. Herb Pope is a walking disaster and unless Theodore is hot they have no outside shooting. They may be competitive early in this game but the effects of the Cuse zone and Jackson's rebounding will create and grow a comfortable second half lead for the Orange. Of all Big East teams, SH is the worst right now - below Rutgers and even DePaul.
I had doubts about Syracuse earlier in the year when they were sleepwalking through games but now they have geled and while this is their first true road game - I am undeterred by that. They will stumble at some point during a road conference and soon but not against the likes of the Pirates. Book it.
California +1
The Bears showed me something in their loss to Arizona. Low post toughness in Markhuri Sanders-Frison, shooting touch from Allen Crabbe and pesky persistence from Jorge Gutierrez.
I can finally forgive them for the 5 point half they registered against Notre Dame back on the 26th of November at the Old Spice Classic. Mike Montgomery has them playing well - as bad as he is at coaching in the NBA, he seems to excel in the college game where its less about managing personalities and more about utilizing strengths and concealing weaknesses. I expect the Bears to grind out each possession and hamper the Sun Devils offensives flow. As it happens, that hasn't been hard to do at times this season as ASU can go cold against scrappy defense and that's exactly what they'll be facing today. If Sanders-Frison and Harper Kamp can stay out of foul trouble and on the court.
Brigham Young / Air Force Over 140
So many of these opening lines on totals are born out of composite stats from the beginning of the season that weight every game until now the same without accounting for trends. Here we have the Air Force Falcons who are clicking on offense to a far greater degree than they were early in the season. We know BYU can score in droves at home - Air Force will be up to help the cause here. Yet again, a soft over with two great FT % teams. This total is about 7 to 8 points too low.
Florida St. +4
Ignore the Hokies' creampuff wins and look at when they've actually been challenged so far this year. They've absolutely struggled against above average teams. Why? Over reliance on Malcolm Delaney to create offensively and lackluster decision making when secondary scorers are forced to create. They'll be up for this game for sure but so will FSU. Chris Singleton is a beast on both ends of the floor and the Seminoles have passed the eyeball test so far this year.
Advanced stats actually have the Hokies rated slightly ahead of FSU, hence the spread we are grabbing here. To show we aren't a slave to numbers and only use them as part of the equation - we'll ride FSU against a very overrated VTech team. If its close, and it may well be, having these four points may well come in handy. If the line were a pick - I'd be tempted but at +4 its a value grab thanks to hundreds of eyeball hours in CBB this year screaming loud and clear who the better team is here.
Texas A&M -7
The Aggies have lost one game all season. Guess who had them that day against Boston College? Yep, Yours Truly. I haven't gotten back the well since despite their hot streak. Here against a mistake prone, poorly coached Sooners team - I can't resist.
Khris Middleton is one of the most unsung players in the Big 12. Nathan Walkup is having a fine senior season so far. Dash Harris, Louebeau, BJ Holmes - this team is loaded with solid players. Mark Turgeon is a solid in game coach in my opinion and should be able to coach circles around Jeff Capel. Seven points is just a tick outside our key number of six and in this case we'll venture out beyond six and back the Aggies. The Sooners have more problems and faults that I care to type out right now. Just know that they are flawed eight ways from Sunday and tend to gift their opposition with unforced errors followed by bouts of frustration, anger (trying to score 8 points on one possession) and then resignation. Aggies romp here.
Syracuse -6.5
The Pirates are in a world of hurt. A hodge podge of marginally talented second and third options that fade in and out of actually giving a damn. Herb Pope is a walking disaster and unless Theodore is hot they have no outside shooting. They may be competitive early in this game but the effects of the Cuse zone and Jackson's rebounding will create and grow a comfortable second half lead for the Orange. Of all Big East teams, SH is the worst right now - below Rutgers and even DePaul.
I had doubts about Syracuse earlier in the year when they were sleepwalking through games but now they have geled and while this is their first true road game - I am undeterred by that. They will stumble at some point during a road conference and soon but not against the likes of the Pirates. Book it.
California +1
The Bears showed me something in their loss to Arizona. Low post toughness in Markhuri Sanders-Frison, shooting touch from Allen Crabbe and pesky persistence from Jorge Gutierrez.
I can finally forgive them for the 5 point half they registered against Notre Dame back on the 26th of November at the Old Spice Classic. Mike Montgomery has them playing well - as bad as he is at coaching in the NBA, he seems to excel in the college game where its less about managing personalities and more about utilizing strengths and concealing weaknesses. I expect the Bears to grind out each possession and hamper the Sun Devils offensives flow. As it happens, that hasn't been hard to do at times this season as ASU can go cold against scrappy defense and that's exactly what they'll be facing today. If Sanders-Frison and Harper Kamp can stay out of foul trouble and on the court.
Brigham Young / Air Force Over 140
So many of these opening lines on totals are born out of composite stats from the beginning of the season that weight every game until now the same without accounting for trends. Here we have the Air Force Falcons who are clicking on offense to a far greater degree than they were early in the season. We know BYU can score in droves at home - Air Force will be up to help the cause here. Yet again, a soft over with two great FT % teams. This total is about 7 to 8 points too low.
Florida St. +4
Ignore the Hokies' creampuff wins and look at when they've actually been challenged so far this year. They've absolutely struggled against above average teams. Why? Over reliance on Malcolm Delaney to create offensively and lackluster decision making when secondary scorers are forced to create. They'll be up for this game for sure but so will FSU. Chris Singleton is a beast on both ends of the floor and the Seminoles have passed the eyeball test so far this year.
Advanced stats actually have the Hokies rated slightly ahead of FSU, hence the spread we are grabbing here. To show we aren't a slave to numbers and only use them as part of the equation - we'll ride FSU against a very overrated VTech team. If its close, and it may well be, having these four points may well come in handy. If the line were a pick - I'd be tempted but at +4 its a value grab thanks to hundreds of eyeball hours in CBB this year screaming loud and clear who the better team is here.
Texas A&M -7
The Aggies have lost one game all season. Guess who had them that day against Boston College? Yep, Yours Truly. I haven't gotten back the well since despite their hot streak. Here against a mistake prone, poorly coached Sooners team - I can't resist.
Khris Middleton is one of the most unsung players in the Big 12. Nathan Walkup is having a fine senior season so far. Dash Harris, Louebeau, BJ Holmes - this team is loaded with solid players. Mark Turgeon is a solid in game coach in my opinion and should be able to coach circles around Jeff Capel. Seven points is just a tick outside our key number of six and in this case we'll venture out beyond six and back the Aggies. The Sooners have more problems and faults that I care to type out right now. Just know that they are flawed eight ways from Sunday and tend to gift their opposition with unforced errors followed by bouts of frustration, anger (trying to score 8 points on one possession) and then resignation. Aggies romp here.