NFL Wildcard Weekend's biggest betting mismatches
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+10.5, 44)
Saints' pass defense vs. Seahawks’ quarterback
In the oddsmakers’ eyes, the Saints were dealt the best draw of Wildcard Weekend. But they are faced with the task of preparing for two quarterbacks.
Whether it’s the crippled Matt Hasselbeck or Jesus-look-alike Charlie Whitehurst getting the start, it might not matter. New Orleans boasts the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL (193.9 ypg) and surrendered the fewest touchdowns through the air this season (13).
Hasselbeck was benched by Pete Carroll three weeks ago versus Atlanta because he couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Prior to the Tampa Bay game where he was injured, the veteran signal caller had committed 13 turnovers in the four previous outings. An injury or a few giveaways seem inevitable if Hasselbeck plays.
Whitehurst played above his head for the home crowd in the regular-season finale but most believe it was an aberration. He could struggle picking up Gregg Williams’ variety of blitz packages Saturday.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 44.5)
Rex Ryan vs. Peyton Manning
After Indianapolis defeated the Jets in the AFC Championship last season, Rex Ryan called Peyton Manning his “kryptonite”.
Going back to the days when Ryan was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore, he’s beaten Manning just once in six tries. The lone win came last year when No. 18 and most of the Colts’ starters were benched midway through the third quarter in the final game of the season.
Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions in his career against Ryan-led defenses. During the conference championship, Manning threw for three scores and 377 yards en route to the 30-17 victory.
Before the Jets lost at Chicago two weeks ago, Ryan said the defense was searching for its old swagger. New York’s frontline doesn’t create a lot of pressure and the secondary ranked 25th in interceptions this year.
"He's probably seen every blitz," Calvin Pace said of Manning. "He's probably watched half our season already. We're going to have to step our game up with the front four, sometimes not blitzing as much."
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 41)
Ravens' experience vs. Chiefs' experience
There are ample factors playing against Kansas City in this matchup.
The Chiefs’ average age is 25.6 and there are 32 players on the active roster that have never been in a playoff game. Baltimore fields the NFL’s fifth-oldest lineup and Ray Lewis was playing in the postseason when Jamaal Charles was still mastering the multiplication table in elementary school.
Arrowhead is considered to be the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL. But the Ravens are experienced road warriors with a 6-3 all-time playoff mark away from home. They won a pair of postseason games on the road in 2007 and snapped New England’s 11-game playoff home win streak last year. The Chiefs have dropped three straight playoff contests at Arrowhead and have never covered a spread there (0-5 ATS).
Kansas City gained little experience playing against elite competition this season. The Chiefs went 8-2 against teams that finished the season with a losing record and 2-4 against teams that were .500 or better. Their best win came against San Diego in Week 1 and that rain-induced victory doesn’t hold as much clout now.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 46)
Packers' pass rush vs. Eagles' pass protection
After Green Bay concussed Kevin Kolb and waltzed out of Philly in Week 1 with a 27-20 victory, Michael Vick said that if he had been playing the entire game the Eagles would have won. Vick will get a chance to put his money where his mouth is Sunday night.
In his last two outings, Vick failed to recognize defensive blitzes. He was dropped three times against the Giants and Minnesota recorded six sacks against the elusive quarterback. Some speculated Vick sat out the majority of practices leading up to the season finale because Andy Reid wanted him in the film room studying the complex 3-4 defensive scheme Dom Capers will deploy.
The Eagles surrendered the second-most sacks in the league this season (50.0). Green Bay finished the regular season ranked second in sacks with 47.0. Clay Matthews tallied three of the Packers’ six sacks versus Philly in the season opener and paced the team with 13.5 takedowns this year. Cullen Jenkins returned to practice this week for the first time in a month and his pass-rushing abilities (7.0 sacks) could make a difference.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+10.5, 44)
Saints' pass defense vs. Seahawks’ quarterback
In the oddsmakers’ eyes, the Saints were dealt the best draw of Wildcard Weekend. But they are faced with the task of preparing for two quarterbacks.
Whether it’s the crippled Matt Hasselbeck or Jesus-look-alike Charlie Whitehurst getting the start, it might not matter. New Orleans boasts the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL (193.9 ypg) and surrendered the fewest touchdowns through the air this season (13).
Hasselbeck was benched by Pete Carroll three weeks ago versus Atlanta because he couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Prior to the Tampa Bay game where he was injured, the veteran signal caller had committed 13 turnovers in the four previous outings. An injury or a few giveaways seem inevitable if Hasselbeck plays.
Whitehurst played above his head for the home crowd in the regular-season finale but most believe it was an aberration. He could struggle picking up Gregg Williams’ variety of blitz packages Saturday.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 44.5)
Rex Ryan vs. Peyton Manning
After Indianapolis defeated the Jets in the AFC Championship last season, Rex Ryan called Peyton Manning his “kryptonite”.
Going back to the days when Ryan was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore, he’s beaten Manning just once in six tries. The lone win came last year when No. 18 and most of the Colts’ starters were benched midway through the third quarter in the final game of the season.
Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions in his career against Ryan-led defenses. During the conference championship, Manning threw for three scores and 377 yards en route to the 30-17 victory.
Before the Jets lost at Chicago two weeks ago, Ryan said the defense was searching for its old swagger. New York’s frontline doesn’t create a lot of pressure and the secondary ranked 25th in interceptions this year.
"He's probably seen every blitz," Calvin Pace said of Manning. "He's probably watched half our season already. We're going to have to step our game up with the front four, sometimes not blitzing as much."
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 41)
Ravens' experience vs. Chiefs' experience
There are ample factors playing against Kansas City in this matchup.
The Chiefs’ average age is 25.6 and there are 32 players on the active roster that have never been in a playoff game. Baltimore fields the NFL’s fifth-oldest lineup and Ray Lewis was playing in the postseason when Jamaal Charles was still mastering the multiplication table in elementary school.
Arrowhead is considered to be the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL. But the Ravens are experienced road warriors with a 6-3 all-time playoff mark away from home. They won a pair of postseason games on the road in 2007 and snapped New England’s 11-game playoff home win streak last year. The Chiefs have dropped three straight playoff contests at Arrowhead and have never covered a spread there (0-5 ATS).
Kansas City gained little experience playing against elite competition this season. The Chiefs went 8-2 against teams that finished the season with a losing record and 2-4 against teams that were .500 or better. Their best win came against San Diego in Week 1 and that rain-induced victory doesn’t hold as much clout now.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 46)
Packers' pass rush vs. Eagles' pass protection
After Green Bay concussed Kevin Kolb and waltzed out of Philly in Week 1 with a 27-20 victory, Michael Vick said that if he had been playing the entire game the Eagles would have won. Vick will get a chance to put his money where his mouth is Sunday night.
In his last two outings, Vick failed to recognize defensive blitzes. He was dropped three times against the Giants and Minnesota recorded six sacks against the elusive quarterback. Some speculated Vick sat out the majority of practices leading up to the season finale because Andy Reid wanted him in the film room studying the complex 3-4 defensive scheme Dom Capers will deploy.
The Eagles surrendered the second-most sacks in the league this season (50.0). Green Bay finished the regular season ranked second in sacks with 47.0. Clay Matthews tallied three of the Packers’ six sacks versus Philly in the season opener and paced the team with 13.5 takedowns this year. Cullen Jenkins returned to practice this week for the first time in a month and his pass-rushing abilities (7.0 sacks) could make a difference.
