ProFootball Weekly Handicapper's Corner
*(There are a total of 10 picks for each game. Here are the numbers...)
Blitzburgh VS Ravens (7 Cappers have Blitzburgh, 3 have Ravens)
Greenbay VS HotLanta (7 Cappers have GB, 3 have HotLanta)
*Selections are made by spread)
So, Blitzburgh and Gb are the selections
*(There are a total of 10 picks for each game. Here are the numbers...)
Blitzburgh VS Ravens (7 Cappers have Blitzburgh, 3 have Ravens)
Greenbay VS HotLanta (7 Cappers have GB, 3 have HotLanta)
*Selections are made by spread)
So, Blitzburgh and Gb are the selections
Bobby Maxwell Saturday's winners...
Tonight's top play winaer is a 600-Unit NFL Playoff Pushover on the Green Bay Packers as they are underdogs in their NFC matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta. As I relearse this play at 1:40 a.m. PST on Saturday, the Packers are 2-point underdogs both here in Las Vegas sportsbooks and at ofnshore locatioins.
I also have a winner tonight with my 100-Unit NFL Smart Play on the Baltimore Ravens as they are underdogs in their AFC showdown with the Steelers from Pittsburgh. As I release this play, the Ravens are 3 1/2-point underdogs at most Las Vegas and offshore locations. The line is 3 at some spots and that is still a winner for the Ravens.
This is one of those games that I looked at the line early in the week and loved the Packers, but thought so much money would come in on them it might sway me to the other side. Well, that didn’t hapaen. They are still an underdog and I still feel the much better team. I’ll go ahead and grab the points but won’t be shocked at all when they win this game outright. Play Green Bay.
The Packers might be the best NFC team we have left. They are playing great footballr right now and I fully expect them to control this game from the outset. Green Bay comes in on a three-game winning streak, including last week’s 21-16 win in Philly as one-point pups. In fact, each of their last three games have essentially been elimination games and they’ve performed marvelously.
QB Aaron Rodgers is deadly with his arm and he can also buy himself some time with his legs. We already know their defense is strong, but we found out they just might have a running game as well as rookie RB James Starks set a franchise rookie record with 123 yards rushing in a playoff game. Defensively, they held the Eagles to 81 rushing yards and will be locked in on Atlanta RB Michael Turner. They will also get after Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
These two teams met in the regular season in Atlanta with the Falcons scoring the 20-17 win as Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant nailed a 47-yarder with nine seconds left to the get the win.
Atlanta lost its last big home game, a 17-14 loss to the Saints on December 27 that would have secured home field a week ahead of time. They let Drew Brees throw the ball all over the field and they only outrushed the Saints by 3 yards. The Falcons are just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS streaks, including 25-12-1 on the road, 8-3 overall, 15-5-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-1-1 in divisional playoff games. I’m going to grab the points but I don’t think I’ll need them as the Packers win this one outright. Play Green Bay tonight.
When these two teams get together, it’s always some of my favorite football. I know I’m going to see two teams beat the hell out of each other, I’m going to see a close football game, and I’m going to see a huge turnover in the fourth quarter essentially cost one of them the game.
Each of the last four meetings between these teams has been decided by three points. No reason to believe today will be any different. Smart money is grabbing the points with the Ravens. Since 2003, the two teams have played 17 times and each squad has scored 302 points. Five of their last seven games have been decided by three points, one was by four and the other by 9. There isn’t going to be a blowout here.
Look at their records and you’ll see why Baltimore is more battle-tested. Both teams finished 12-4 in the regular season but you’ll find Pittsburgh beat absolutely nobody. Their best wins were opening day against the Falcons, in OT when Rashard Mendenhall broke loose to win the game, and the three-point win at Baltimore when they needed a miracle sack and forced fumble with three minutes to go to set up their only TD. Other than that, no quality wins.
Baltimore went and beat the Jets in New York, won at Pittsburgh, beat New Orleans and just clobbered Kansas City last week in the wildcard round, 30-7 as a three-point favorite, forcing five turnovers.
The Ravens aren’t going to let the Steelers run the ball and they will get after QB Ben Roethlisberger and knock him around a bit to shut down the passing game. The question is can Joe Flacco move the ball on the Steelers’ defense? His team has not scored more than 20 points on Pittsburgh in his career. He’ll need to get to 20 at least to win this one.
Flacco has already won four road playoff games and home teams are just 10-10 in the divisional round since 2005. Flacco is the NFL’s second highest-rated passer since Week 3 of the regular season, trailing only New England’s Tom Brady.
Baltimore is on ATS surges of 8-3 in road playoff games, and 4-0 in road games this season. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. I’ll grab the points and go with Baltimore today.
Tonight's top play winaer is a 600-Unit NFL Playoff Pushover on the Green Bay Packers as they are underdogs in their NFC matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta. As I relearse this play at 1:40 a.m. PST on Saturday, the Packers are 2-point underdogs both here in Las Vegas sportsbooks and at ofnshore locatioins.
I also have a winner tonight with my 100-Unit NFL Smart Play on the Baltimore Ravens as they are underdogs in their AFC showdown with the Steelers from Pittsburgh. As I release this play, the Ravens are 3 1/2-point underdogs at most Las Vegas and offshore locations. The line is 3 at some spots and that is still a winner for the Ravens.
ANALYSIS
This is one of those games that I looked at the line early in the week and loved the Packers, but thought so much money would come in on them it might sway me to the other side. Well, that didn’t hapaen. They are still an underdog and I still feel the much better team. I’ll go ahead and grab the points but won’t be shocked at all when they win this game outright. Play Green Bay.
The Packers might be the best NFC team we have left. They are playing great footballr right now and I fully expect them to control this game from the outset. Green Bay comes in on a three-game winning streak, including last week’s 21-16 win in Philly as one-point pups. In fact, each of their last three games have essentially been elimination games and they’ve performed marvelously.
QB Aaron Rodgers is deadly with his arm and he can also buy himself some time with his legs. We already know their defense is strong, but we found out they just might have a running game as well as rookie RB James Starks set a franchise rookie record with 123 yards rushing in a playoff game. Defensively, they held the Eagles to 81 rushing yards and will be locked in on Atlanta RB Michael Turner. They will also get after Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
These two teams met in the regular season in Atlanta with the Falcons scoring the 20-17 win as Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant nailed a 47-yarder with nine seconds left to the get the win.
Atlanta lost its last big home game, a 17-14 loss to the Saints on December 27 that would have secured home field a week ahead of time. They let Drew Brees throw the ball all over the field and they only outrushed the Saints by 3 yards. The Falcons are just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS streaks, including 25-12-1 on the road, 8-3 overall, 15-5-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-1-1 in divisional playoff games. I’m going to grab the points but I don’t think I’ll need them as the Packers win this one outright. Play Green Bay tonight.
ANALYSIS
When these two teams get together, it’s always some of my favorite football. I know I’m going to see two teams beat the hell out of each other, I’m going to see a close football game, and I’m going to see a huge turnover in the fourth quarter essentially cost one of them the game.
Each of the last four meetings between these teams has been decided by three points. No reason to believe today will be any different. Smart money is grabbing the points with the Ravens. Since 2003, the two teams have played 17 times and each squad has scored 302 points. Five of their last seven games have been decided by three points, one was by four and the other by 9. There isn’t going to be a blowout here.
Look at their records and you’ll see why Baltimore is more battle-tested. Both teams finished 12-4 in the regular season but you’ll find Pittsburgh beat absolutely nobody. Their best wins were opening day against the Falcons, in OT when Rashard Mendenhall broke loose to win the game, and the three-point win at Baltimore when they needed a miracle sack and forced fumble with three minutes to go to set up their only TD. Other than that, no quality wins.
Baltimore went and beat the Jets in New York, won at Pittsburgh, beat New Orleans and just clobbered Kansas City last week in the wildcard round, 30-7 as a three-point favorite, forcing five turnovers.
The Ravens aren’t going to let the Steelers run the ball and they will get after QB Ben Roethlisberger and knock him around a bit to shut down the passing game. The question is can Joe Flacco move the ball on the Steelers’ defense? His team has not scored more than 20 points on Pittsburgh in his career. He’ll need to get to 20 at least to win this one.
Flacco has already won four road playoff games and home teams are just 10-10 in the divisional round since 2005. Flacco is the NFL’s second highest-rated passer since Week 3 of the regular season, trailing only New England’s Tom Brady.
Baltimore is on ATS surges of 8-3 in road playoff games, and 4-0 in road games this season. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS against winning teams. I’ll grab the points and go with Baltimore today.
Lenny Del Genio's 25* Conf Game of the Year
Play on Ball State at 2:00 ET. Central Michigan is a very young and very bad basketball team with little depth. They are just 3-11 ATS this season and have only covered one game since the start of December, back when they were fortunate enough to be catching 11.5 points in a loss to LSU. Here, we are fortunate to be catching the Chippewas off a rare SU win as they beat an even worse Toledo team by double digits earlier in the week. That helps with the value here. The MAC is a very poor basketball conference, but Ball State seems pretty good. They are 2-0 so far in league play and in a road win over Northern Illinois, the Cardinals saw their bench outscore the opponent's 29-8. Defensively, Ball State is only allowing 54 PPG on its home floor this year. CMU comes in averaging just 59 PPG overall. Keep an eye on 6'9" F Jared Jones, who has been regularly turning in double-doubles. He should have his way against an undersized frontcourt here. Ball State is our 25* MAC Game of the Year.
Play on Ball State at 2:00 ET. Central Michigan is a very young and very bad basketball team with little depth. They are just 3-11 ATS this season and have only covered one game since the start of December, back when they were fortunate enough to be catching 11.5 points in a loss to LSU. Here, we are fortunate to be catching the Chippewas off a rare SU win as they beat an even worse Toledo team by double digits earlier in the week. That helps with the value here. The MAC is a very poor basketball conference, but Ball State seems pretty good. They are 2-0 so far in league play and in a road win over Northern Illinois, the Cardinals saw their bench outscore the opponent's 29-8. Defensively, Ball State is only allowing 54 PPG on its home floor this year. CMU comes in averaging just 59 PPG overall. Keep an eye on 6'9" F Jared Jones, who has been regularly turning in double-doubles. He should have his way against an undersized frontcourt here. Ball State is our 25* MAC Game of the Year.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +166 over FLORIDA
We’ll stick with our philosophy of not trying to predict the outcomes of games but rather looking for value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. The Devils have the worst record in the NHL but they might just offer up the most value because of that awful record. Never has the Panthers been this high a favorite over the Devils and you could probably count on one hand the numbers of times they’ve been –175 favorite over anyone in the last decade. What we do know is that the Devils are playing much better and that was bound to happen, as this team has way too much talent to be where they are. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Bolts in which they scored 11 times. A couple of wins does wonders for a team's psyche and the Devils are feeling w hole lot better with a lot less pressure. Prior to those two wins against Tampa they lost back-to-back games against Philly but they were not outplayed in either game and you can see this team slowly getting its confidence back and don’t think for a second that they’re not dangerous. Regardless of the outcome, we’re getting outstanding value on this underachieving guest and will continue to monitor them very closely. Definite overlay. Play: New Jersey +166 (Risking 2 units).
Calgary +120 over TORONTO
Whoa there Leaf fans. Yes, the Maple Leafs are playing better and the direction this team is going looks somewhat promising for the first time in years but there’s still lots to dislike about them here. First, they sent down goaltender James Reimer because J.S. Giguere is back and it looks like Giguere will get the start. The Leafs are ruining Jonas Gustavsson and will go with their third best option. Giguere is maybe the 45th best goaltender in the league and chances are he won’t be sharp after missing nearly a month. Secondly, the Leafs return home from a joyous road trip in which they beat Atlanta, L.A. and San Jose before losing to Phoenix and that trip could cause them to be flat here. The Leafs were buried in Calgary a month ago and despite losing four of its last five, the Flames are really playing much better. They’re coming off a 3-2 win last night in Ottawa but that score is flattering to the Sens, as Calgary took a 3-0 lead into the third before a couple of late goals made it close. So, in a game in which the Leafs return home with a rusty and very average goaltender, look for the Flames to come in here and play another very good game with a great chance to win. Play: Calgary +120 (Risking 2 units).
New Jersey +166 over FLORIDA
We’ll stick with our philosophy of not trying to predict the outcomes of games but rather looking for value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. The Devils have the worst record in the NHL but they might just offer up the most value because of that awful record. Never has the Panthers been this high a favorite over the Devils and you could probably count on one hand the numbers of times they’ve been –175 favorite over anyone in the last decade. What we do know is that the Devils are playing much better and that was bound to happen, as this team has way too much talent to be where they are. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Bolts in which they scored 11 times. A couple of wins does wonders for a team's psyche and the Devils are feeling w hole lot better with a lot less pressure. Prior to those two wins against Tampa they lost back-to-back games against Philly but they were not outplayed in either game and you can see this team slowly getting its confidence back and don’t think for a second that they’re not dangerous. Regardless of the outcome, we’re getting outstanding value on this underachieving guest and will continue to monitor them very closely. Definite overlay. Play: New Jersey +166 (Risking 2 units).
Calgary +120 over TORONTO
Whoa there Leaf fans. Yes, the Maple Leafs are playing better and the direction this team is going looks somewhat promising for the first time in years but there’s still lots to dislike about them here. First, they sent down goaltender James Reimer because J.S. Giguere is back and it looks like Giguere will get the start. The Leafs are ruining Jonas Gustavsson and will go with their third best option. Giguere is maybe the 45th best goaltender in the league and chances are he won’t be sharp after missing nearly a month. Secondly, the Leafs return home from a joyous road trip in which they beat Atlanta, L.A. and San Jose before losing to Phoenix and that trip could cause them to be flat here. The Leafs were buried in Calgary a month ago and despite losing four of its last five, the Flames are really playing much better. They’re coming off a 3-2 win last night in Ottawa but that score is flattering to the Sens, as Calgary took a 3-0 lead into the third before a couple of late goals made it close. So, in a game in which the Leafs return home with a rusty and very average goaltender, look for the Flames to come in here and play another very good game with a great chance to win. Play: Calgary +120 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Marquette +6 over LOUISVILLE
Note the 11:00 AM EST start. The Cardinals are ranked #17 in the nation while Marquette comes in unranked. That could be reversed sooner rather than later, as the Golden Eagles could end up being a top-15 team while Louisville might not be in the top 40. Louisville opened the year by crushing Butler and right away they became overvalued. Butler got off to a horrible start but if those two met again today the result would be a lot different. Louisville also had a good win over UNLV on Dec 11 but since then they’ve been exposed. They lost to Drexel and they also lost to Kentucky and Villanova. Losing to that pair is nothing to hang your head over but they didn’t just lose they were bludgeoned and looked like they didn’t belong on the same court with those two top programs. The Cardinals are 5-3 since that aforementioned win over UNLV and they’ve beaten up only on dregs. The Golden Eagles pose a big problem for them. Marquette has at least four players that could go off for 20 points or more. They’re 12-5 overall but all five losses were credible and each one could have gone in their favor. Realistically, this Golden Eagles be could be looking at a 17-0 record with a little luck going their way. Marquette’s five losses were against Duke (82-77), Gonzaga (66-63), Wisconsin (69-64), Vanderbilt (77-76) and Pitt (89-81). Not only can the Golden Eagles stay well within this margin, they could also run way with this game against a Louisville team that is prone to giving up big runs. We get the much better team taking back significant points. Play: #519 Marquette +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
St. Joseph’s +5½ over ST. LOUIS
2:00 PM EST start. You simply cannot be comfortable laying points with the Billikens. This is a team that has difficulty scoring six points. St. Louis plays decent defense but they have to otherwise they’d get whacked every game. The Billikens top two point producers are starting guards, Kyle Cassity and Mike McCall, both whom are averaging 9.3 points per game. The Billikens also get completely dominated on the boards every single game and the Hawks will eat up all those missed shots. It’s going to be a lot of one and done for the Billikens. Both teams are 5-11 and 0-3 in the conference but in no way is St. Louis six points better, if at all, than the Hawks. The Billikens are made up of freshman after freshman and they have a long, long way to go before they’re competitive. The Hawks aren’t a whole lot more experienced but they have the two best players on the floor in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway. St. Joe’s has a win over Rutgers, they lost to Villanova by just 11 and to Minnesota by just 10. Again, we get the better team that will win the battle of the boards for sure and we get significant points. This one is very tempting to play on the money line but we’ll play it safe and take the points. Play: #553 St. Joseph’s +5½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Marshall +4 over MEMPHIS
12:00 PM EST start. The inclination here right away is to lay the points because the Tigers are a very reputable school that has made some serious noise during March Madness. They’ve dominated the C-USA for years but that was then and this is now. All those great players have graduated and the Tigers are now left with a team that is extremely beatable. Memphis is 12-4 overall with some decent rankings in terms of FG% and rebounding but those stats are completely skewed after the Tigers faced a whole slew of cupcakes. This is a team that cannot make stops and an efficient team can easily put up over 75 points against them. The Thundering Herd is also 12-4 and they, too, really don’t have any notable wins. However, they played tough against #18 UCF, they whacked Southern Miss by 30 and they’ve now won four of five with only loss over that stretch coming against the aforementioned Knights. This is an excellent rebounding team with some good shooters and they really have a chance to do some damage in this conference this season. The Tigers are one of the most overvalued squads in the country right now and we can continue to take advantage of their reputation. Play: #523 Marshall (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Marquette +6 over LOUISVILLE
Note the 11:00 AM EST start. The Cardinals are ranked #17 in the nation while Marquette comes in unranked. That could be reversed sooner rather than later, as the Golden Eagles could end up being a top-15 team while Louisville might not be in the top 40. Louisville opened the year by crushing Butler and right away they became overvalued. Butler got off to a horrible start but if those two met again today the result would be a lot different. Louisville also had a good win over UNLV on Dec 11 but since then they’ve been exposed. They lost to Drexel and they also lost to Kentucky and Villanova. Losing to that pair is nothing to hang your head over but they didn’t just lose they were bludgeoned and looked like they didn’t belong on the same court with those two top programs. The Cardinals are 5-3 since that aforementioned win over UNLV and they’ve beaten up only on dregs. The Golden Eagles pose a big problem for them. Marquette has at least four players that could go off for 20 points or more. They’re 12-5 overall but all five losses were credible and each one could have gone in their favor. Realistically, this Golden Eagles be could be looking at a 17-0 record with a little luck going their way. Marquette’s five losses were against Duke (82-77), Gonzaga (66-63), Wisconsin (69-64), Vanderbilt (77-76) and Pitt (89-81). Not only can the Golden Eagles stay well within this margin, they could also run way with this game against a Louisville team that is prone to giving up big runs. We get the much better team taking back significant points. Play: #519 Marquette +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
St. Joseph’s +5½ over ST. LOUIS
2:00 PM EST start. You simply cannot be comfortable laying points with the Billikens. This is a team that has difficulty scoring six points. St. Louis plays decent defense but they have to otherwise they’d get whacked every game. The Billikens top two point producers are starting guards, Kyle Cassity and Mike McCall, both whom are averaging 9.3 points per game. The Billikens also get completely dominated on the boards every single game and the Hawks will eat up all those missed shots. It’s going to be a lot of one and done for the Billikens. Both teams are 5-11 and 0-3 in the conference but in no way is St. Louis six points better, if at all, than the Hawks. The Billikens are made up of freshman after freshman and they have a long, long way to go before they’re competitive. The Hawks aren’t a whole lot more experienced but they have the two best players on the floor in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway. St. Joe’s has a win over Rutgers, they lost to Villanova by just 11 and to Minnesota by just 10. Again, we get the better team that will win the battle of the boards for sure and we get significant points. This one is very tempting to play on the money line but we’ll play it safe and take the points. Play: #553 St. Joseph’s +5½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Marshall +4 over MEMPHIS
12:00 PM EST start. The inclination here right away is to lay the points because the Tigers are a very reputable school that has made some serious noise during March Madness. They’ve dominated the C-USA for years but that was then and this is now. All those great players have graduated and the Tigers are now left with a team that is extremely beatable. Memphis is 12-4 overall with some decent rankings in terms of FG% and rebounding but those stats are completely skewed after the Tigers faced a whole slew of cupcakes. This is a team that cannot make stops and an efficient team can easily put up over 75 points against them. The Thundering Herd is also 12-4 and they, too, really don’t have any notable wins. However, they played tough against #18 UCF, they whacked Southern Miss by 30 and they’ve now won four of five with only loss over that stretch coming against the aforementioned Knights. This is an excellent rebounding team with some good shooters and they really have a chance to do some damage in this conference this season. The Tigers are one of the most overvalued squads in the country right now and we can continue to take advantage of their reputation. Play: #523 Marshall (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
