Wunderdog (for those who need to bet on everything, this is all I have so please don't ask for other horse picks). Thanks.
GULFSTREAM PARK Race #6 at 3:35 PM Eastern
GULFSTREAM PARK Race #6 at 3:35 PM Eastern
Top pick: #6 (I AM TROUBLE) - Went wire-to-wire first off a Bob Dibona claim, and enters this sharp and with the best early speed. Field is light on pace, so he'll attempt to win this early. The pick.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #7 (Mystery Prospect) - Claimed last out by the high-percentage Pete Walder barn, new trainer wins at a 30% rate first time out with his new purchases. He also likes to "freshen them up" a bit, just like this runner. Contender.
3rd pick: #8 (High Brass) - Draws a nice post for the distance and he'll be taking a sharp drop-down in class today. Can compete here.
4th pick: #3 (Value Driver) - Drops down and goes turf to dirt after a pretty good run last out in his first start for trainer Norman Pointer. Exotic's threat.
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Ravens/Titans Under 34
Both teams played in a low scoring game earlier this year and I expect exactly the same type of game today. The Titans have the edge on paper, but Center Kevin Mawae is out and that is going to affect the timing of the offense which will have the Ravens Defense licking their chops. Tennessee has an experience defensive line going against a Ravens O-Line that is very young. The weather will be cold and windy and this should be a classic defensive game. Take the Under.
Panthers -9.5 over Cardinals
In the earlier game this season the Panthers turned the ball over a bit and gave Arizona prime positioning to score. There is one thing that Kurt Warner isn't good at and that is playing in the cold weather. Also, in the last two cold weather games Arizona's Defense has gotten hammered for about 48 pt's in both. The Panthers are 8-0 at home and are a better team in every phase of the game. AZ will be without Boldin and if he does play he will not be a factor at all. The Panthers can key in on Fitzgerald and its going to be a long night. Look for the Panthers to dominate. Take Carolina.
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NFL Football
Ravens/Titans Under 34
Both teams played in a low scoring game earlier this year and I expect exactly the same type of game today. The Titans have the edge on paper, but Center Kevin Mawae is out and that is going to affect the timing of the offense which will have the Ravens Defense licking their chops. Tennessee has an experience defensive line going against a Ravens O-Line that is very young. The weather will be cold and windy and this should be a classic defensive game. Take the Under.
Panthers -9.5 over Cardinals
In the earlier game this season the Panthers turned the ball over a bit and gave Arizona prime positioning to score. There is one thing that Kurt Warner isn't good at and that is playing in the cold weather. Also, in the last two cold weather games Arizona's Defense has gotten hammered for about 48 pt's in both. The Panthers are 8-0 at home and are a better team in every phase of the game. AZ will be without Boldin and if he does play he will not be a factor at all. The Panthers can key in on Fitzgerald and its going to be a long night. Look for the Panthers to dominate. Take Carolina.
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GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - January 10, 2009
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL
Game: 4:30PM, Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
Current Line: -3
Over/Under: 34
Reason: The Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday afternoon when they battle at LP Field in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game's total is sitting at 34.
The Ravens defeated Miami 27-9 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Wild Card round last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Le'Ron McClain rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries for Baltimore, while Ed Reed made a pair of interceptions and returned one for a touchdown in the win.
The Titans lost to Indianapolis 23-0 as a 3-point favorite in Week 17. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Vince Young threw for 55 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Tennessee and LenDale White rushed for 25 yards on seven carries.
Team records:
Baltimore: 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS
Tennessee: 13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in January are 3-7
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Tennessee is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Tip of the Day - January 10, 2009
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL
Game: 4:30PM, Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
Current Line: -3
Over/Under: 34
Reason: The Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday afternoon when they battle at LP Field in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game's total is sitting at 34.
The Ravens defeated Miami 27-9 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Wild Card round last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Le'Ron McClain rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries for Baltimore, while Ed Reed made a pair of interceptions and returned one for a touchdown in the win.
The Titans lost to Indianapolis 23-0 as a 3-point favorite in Week 17. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Vince Young threw for 55 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Tennessee and LenDale White rushed for 25 yards on seven carries.
Team records:
Baltimore: 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS
Tennessee: 13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in January are 3-7
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Tennessee is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Scott Ferrall
SATURDAY'S COLLEGE RACK LOCKS BEST BETS IN ( )
FERRALL HOT AS EVER PICKING NCAA HOOP WINNERS ATS
MARYLAND -7.5 to Georgia Tech (8)
WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 from Marquette (3)
TENNESSEE -7.5 to Georgia (2)
VILLANOVA -2 to Louisville (4)
GEORGETOWN -11.5 to Providence (1)
KENTUCKY -8.5 to Vandy (5)
ARIZONA STATE -16 to Oregon (6)
STANFORD +2 from Washington St (9)
GONZAGA -22 to Portland (7)
NBA LOCKS FOR SATURDAY BEST BETS IN ( )
CHARLOTTE +2.5 from Washington--UNDER 182 (5)
MINNESOTA -2 to Milwaukee--OVER 197.5 (6)
HOUSTON -7.5 to Knicks--OVER 207 (1)
CHICAGO -7.5 to Oklahoma City--UNDER 206 (2)
UTAH -8.5 to Detroit--OVER 191--(3)
PORTLAND -12.5 to Golden St--OVER 209 (4)
SIDE DISHES:
CHARLOTTE +125
MINNESOTA -115
SATURDAY'S HOCKEY LOCKS MY FAVORITE LOCKS: BEST PICKS IN ( )
FLORIDA -175 over Atlanta (4)
BOSTON -205 over Carolina (3)
COLORADO (even odds) over Pittsburgh (6)
MONTREAL -110 over Washington (8)
COLUMBUS +105 over Minnesota (7)
DETROIT -250 over Buffalo (1)
PHILLY -220 over Toronto (2)
OTTAWA +105 over Rangers (9)
CHICAGO -160 over Nashville (5)
DALLAS +100 over Phoenix (11)
SAN JOSE -145 over Vancouver (12)
NEW JERSEY (even odds) over LA (10)
SIDE DISHES:
COLORADO +1.5 goals at -270
BOSTON -1.5 goals at +140
OTTAWA +1.5 goals at -280
PHILLY -1.5 goals at +155
DALLAS +1.5 goals at -270
NJ +1.5 goals at -290
COLUMBUS +1.5 goals at -270
SATURDAY'S COLLEGE RACK LOCKS BEST BETS IN ( )
FERRALL HOT AS EVER PICKING NCAA HOOP WINNERS ATS
MARYLAND -7.5 to Georgia Tech (8)
WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 from Marquette (3)
TENNESSEE -7.5 to Georgia (2)
VILLANOVA -2 to Louisville (4)
GEORGETOWN -11.5 to Providence (1)
KENTUCKY -8.5 to Vandy (5)
ARIZONA STATE -16 to Oregon (6)
STANFORD +2 from Washington St (9)
GONZAGA -22 to Portland (7)
NBA LOCKS FOR SATURDAY BEST BETS IN ( )
CHARLOTTE +2.5 from Washington--UNDER 182 (5)
MINNESOTA -2 to Milwaukee--OVER 197.5 (6)
HOUSTON -7.5 to Knicks--OVER 207 (1)
CHICAGO -7.5 to Oklahoma City--UNDER 206 (2)
UTAH -8.5 to Detroit--OVER 191--(3)
PORTLAND -12.5 to Golden St--OVER 209 (4)
SIDE DISHES:
CHARLOTTE +125
MINNESOTA -115
SATURDAY'S HOCKEY LOCKS MY FAVORITE LOCKS: BEST PICKS IN ( )
FLORIDA -175 over Atlanta (4)
BOSTON -205 over Carolina (3)
COLORADO (even odds) over Pittsburgh (6)
MONTREAL -110 over Washington (8)
COLUMBUS +105 over Minnesota (7)
DETROIT -250 over Buffalo (1)
PHILLY -220 over Toronto (2)
OTTAWA +105 over Rangers (9)
CHICAGO -160 over Nashville (5)
DALLAS +100 over Phoenix (11)
SAN JOSE -145 over Vancouver (12)
NEW JERSEY (even odds) over LA (10)
SIDE DISHES:
COLORADO +1.5 goals at -270
BOSTON -1.5 goals at +140
OTTAWA +1.5 goals at -280
PHILLY -1.5 goals at +155
DALLAS +1.5 goals at -270
NJ +1.5 goals at -290
COLUMBUS +1.5 goals at -270
kirkwins
Total results since 12/20/2008
Games 77-37, 68%
Stars 242-109, 69%
My Bowl Wrap-up is posted at the bottom of this page. It was a great bowl season, and I'm already 6-2 (16-3 on stars) in the NFL playoffs. Be sure to check in this weekend. It's looking like it will be a good one.
Check back at 5:00pm for more basketball plays.
Selections for Saturday 1/10/2009
NFL
4* Carolina vs Arizona OVER 48.5
3* Tennessee -3 vs Baltimore
2* Tennessee vs Baltimore UNDER 34.5
2* Carolina -9.5 vs Arizona
NCAA Basketball
4* Georgetown -11 vs. Providence
4* St. Bonaventure +1 vs Duquesne
3* Murray St. -5.5 vs. Austin Peay
3* San Diego St. -3.5 vs Utah
For day-by-day results, click on the PORTFOLIO tab on the left.
NCAA BOWL WRAP-UP
ALL PLAYS
Games: 32-14, 70%
Stars: 99-37, 73%
That's +58.3 units. Following my bankroll management advice, that's a 29.15% gain!
SIDE PLAYS
Games: 24-5, 83%
Stars: 74-15, 83%
After starting 2-3 on bowl sides, I finished on a 22-2 run, including winning the last 13.
TOTALS PLAYS
GAMES: 8-9, 42%
STARS: 25-22, 53%
NOT VERY GOOD, BUT SHOWED A PROFIT OF 0.8 UNITS THANKS TO TWO EASY 5* WINNERS.
STAR BREAKDOWN FOR SIDES & TOTALS: 5* 3-0; 4* 7-2; 3* 9-6; 2* 10-5; 1* 3-1
Total results since 12/20/2008
Games 77-37, 68%
Stars 242-109, 69%
My Bowl Wrap-up is posted at the bottom of this page. It was a great bowl season, and I'm already 6-2 (16-3 on stars) in the NFL playoffs. Be sure to check in this weekend. It's looking like it will be a good one.
Check back at 5:00pm for more basketball plays.
Selections for Saturday 1/10/2009
NFL
4* Carolina vs Arizona OVER 48.5
3* Tennessee -3 vs Baltimore
2* Tennessee vs Baltimore UNDER 34.5
2* Carolina -9.5 vs Arizona
NCAA Basketball
4* Georgetown -11 vs. Providence
4* St. Bonaventure +1 vs Duquesne
3* Murray St. -5.5 vs. Austin Peay
3* San Diego St. -3.5 vs Utah
For day-by-day results, click on the PORTFOLIO tab on the left.
NCAA BOWL WRAP-UP
ALL PLAYS
Games: 32-14, 70%
Stars: 99-37, 73%
That's +58.3 units. Following my bankroll management advice, that's a 29.15% gain!
SIDE PLAYS
Games: 24-5, 83%
Stars: 74-15, 83%
After starting 2-3 on bowl sides, I finished on a 22-2 run, including winning the last 13.
TOTALS PLAYS
GAMES: 8-9, 42%
STARS: 25-22, 53%
NOT VERY GOOD, BUT SHOWED A PROFIT OF 0.8 UNITS THANKS TO TWO EASY 5* WINNERS.
STAR BREAKDOWN FOR SIDES & TOTALS: 5* 3-0; 4* 7-2; 3* 9-6; 2* 10-5; 1* 3-1
Last edited:
Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers - Saturday January 10, 2009 8:15 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Carolina Panthers -9.5 (-110)
While we are not wild about laying this many points in NFL, we still believe that Carolina is the best way to go in this game out of the four options (Carolina, AZ, over or under), as the "numbers don't lie," and Carolina has a clear edge in just about all of them except the one that is keeping this line from "crashing" the double digit barrier, that being the fact that when these two played in mid season in Carolina, the Cards played Panthers tough, losing by only 4 points and "pushing" ATS vs the consensus line for that game, in which they led 17-3 in third quarter before a series of costly mistakes did them in -- what else is new for Cards on the road TY, especially when playing decent teams in the eastern time zone? And that brings us to the first edge that Carolina has in this game, which is Arizona's miserable 0-4-1 ATS record (with average MOL/margin of loss 20 points) when playing road games TY in the eastern time zone. And it just so happens that the only meaningful road games played by cards TY (the four that they played vs teams with .500> W-L records, excluding rout loss at NE after Cards had already clinched NFC-West) were all played in the east. In those four representative games (at Wash, Jets, Caro and philly), AZ was a horrible 0-3-1 ATS, with an average MOL of 15 points. And conversely, Carolina was 4-0-1 ATS in their five representative home games, played vs teams with .500> W-L records (AZ, Denver, TB, NO and Atlanta), with an average MOV of 15.5 points in those five games. So combining and averaging these #s and records, we have a 7-0-1 edge for Carolina (counting earlier game between these two just once), with a projected 15 pont SU and ATS Carolina win. And while it's understandable to be reluctant to lay the big points (>7) against a decent team like Arizona, it should be noted that in playoff point spread records compiled for the divisional round over last 32 years (since 1976), the highest % of wins in any point spread category is for home faves of 7-9.5 points, with a 24-18 (57%) ATS record.We believe that one of the reasons for that good record is that in the playoffs, where there is no tomorrow unless you win, the faves rarely take their foot "off the gas pedal" when they have a late lead, like they often do in the regular season for various reasons. And this results in very few "back door covers" by heavy dogs in the playoffs.
Looking at the stats for this game, while we note that Arizona QB Curt warner played a very solid game in the earlier season match-up between these two, passing for 381 yards with two TDs and just one "pick," we have been really impressed with the development of Carolina's running game, particularly RB De Angelo williams, with 18 TDs TY and an average of 5.5 YPC. resulting in Carolina having one of the top running games in NFL at 145 YRPG on 4.8 YPC. While both teams' run defenses have basically similar #s, allowing about 110 YRPG on 4 YPC, the Arizona rush offense is just so-so, averagging only 73 YRPG on 3.4 YPC. In that mid-season match-up, Carolina outrushed Cards 120-50, and with panther rushing attack much more developed since then and with RB Williams still healthy, we project a 100+ yard rushing edge tonite for Carolina. Nor does it hurt that Carolina also has a significant ST (special teams) edge, being ranked #17 in STs as opposed to Arizona's crappy #31 ranking. The final edge for Carolina that we will mention is with the defensive comparison, especially when looking at the key stat of YPT (yards per point), where Carolina "D" has a very good YPT of 17, compared to Arizona's bad defensive YPT of 12.5. For those of you unfamiliar with the term YPT, Carolina's good YPT of 17 means that opposing teams need to gain 17 yards for every point scored against Carolina defense, while Arizona's bad YPT of 12.5 means that opposing teams need to gain ony 12.5 yards for every point scored against the leaky Arizona defense.
So based on the foregoing, we suggest a small (two unit) play on Carolina at -9.5 (but pass at -10>). We also like Carolina as "teaser bait" for one> 7 point teasers, teasing line down to -2.5 for Carolina and teasing Panthers to one or more of our other NFL picks for this WE, as well as teasing Carolina to the over in this game (with totals line teased down to 42.5 points or less). Once individual team totals lines are released for today's NFL games, we will update this pick write up for our subscribers, with at least one likely individual team totals play as well, along with some very solid second half betting strategy and guidelines for this late game.
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Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers - Saturday January 10, 2009 8:15 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Carolina Panthers -9.5 (-110)
While we are not wild about laying this many points in NFL, we still believe that Carolina is the best way to go in this game out of the four options (Carolina, AZ, over or under), as the "numbers don't lie," and Carolina has a clear edge in just about all of them except the one that is keeping this line from "crashing" the double digit barrier, that being the fact that when these two played in mid season in Carolina, the Cards played Panthers tough, losing by only 4 points and "pushing" ATS vs the consensus line for that game, in which they led 17-3 in third quarter before a series of costly mistakes did them in -- what else is new for Cards on the road TY, especially when playing decent teams in the eastern time zone? And that brings us to the first edge that Carolina has in this game, which is Arizona's miserable 0-4-1 ATS record (with average MOL/margin of loss 20 points) when playing road games TY in the eastern time zone. And it just so happens that the only meaningful road games played by cards TY (the four that they played vs teams with .500> W-L records, excluding rout loss at NE after Cards had already clinched NFC-West) were all played in the east. In those four representative games (at Wash, Jets, Caro and philly), AZ was a horrible 0-3-1 ATS, with an average MOL of 15 points. And conversely, Carolina was 4-0-1 ATS in their five representative home games, played vs teams with .500> W-L records (AZ, Denver, TB, NO and Atlanta), with an average MOV of 15.5 points in those five games. So combining and averaging these #s and records, we have a 7-0-1 edge for Carolina (counting earlier game between these two just once), with a projected 15 pont SU and ATS Carolina win. And while it's understandable to be reluctant to lay the big points (>7) against a decent team like Arizona, it should be noted that in playoff point spread records compiled for the divisional round over last 32 years (since 1976), the highest % of wins in any point spread category is for home faves of 7-9.5 points, with a 24-18 (57%) ATS record.We believe that one of the reasons for that good record is that in the playoffs, where there is no tomorrow unless you win, the faves rarely take their foot "off the gas pedal" when they have a late lead, like they often do in the regular season for various reasons. And this results in very few "back door covers" by heavy dogs in the playoffs.
Looking at the stats for this game, while we note that Arizona QB Curt warner played a very solid game in the earlier season match-up between these two, passing for 381 yards with two TDs and just one "pick," we have been really impressed with the development of Carolina's running game, particularly RB De Angelo williams, with 18 TDs TY and an average of 5.5 YPC. resulting in Carolina having one of the top running games in NFL at 145 YRPG on 4.8 YPC. While both teams' run defenses have basically similar #s, allowing about 110 YRPG on 4 YPC, the Arizona rush offense is just so-so, averagging only 73 YRPG on 3.4 YPC. In that mid-season match-up, Carolina outrushed Cards 120-50, and with panther rushing attack much more developed since then and with RB Williams still healthy, we project a 100+ yard rushing edge tonite for Carolina. Nor does it hurt that Carolina also has a significant ST (special teams) edge, being ranked #17 in STs as opposed to Arizona's crappy #31 ranking. The final edge for Carolina that we will mention is with the defensive comparison, especially when looking at the key stat of YPT (yards per point), where Carolina "D" has a very good YPT of 17, compared to Arizona's bad defensive YPT of 12.5. For those of you unfamiliar with the term YPT, Carolina's good YPT of 17 means that opposing teams need to gain 17 yards for every point scored against Carolina defense, while Arizona's bad YPT of 12.5 means that opposing teams need to gain ony 12.5 yards for every point scored against the leaky Arizona defense.
So based on the foregoing, we suggest a small (two unit) play on Carolina at -9.5 (but pass at -10>). We also like Carolina as "teaser bait" for one> 7 point teasers, teasing line down to -2.5 for Carolina and teasing Panthers to one or more of our other NFL picks for this WE, as well as teasing Carolina to the over in this game (with totals line teased down to 42.5 points or less). Once individual team totals lines are released for today's NFL games, we will update this pick write up for our subscribers, with at least one likely individual team totals play as well, along with some very solid second half betting strategy and guidelines for this late game.
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