kelso 100 units
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 10, 2009
NFL Playoff Game Of The Year
100 Units
Titans (-3) over Ravens
4:30 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - LP Field
Tennessee by 7-10
TV: CBS Comments: The first thing one must consider in this American Football Conference showdown is the weather, and it could be downright dreadful. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with a game-time temperature of 45 degrees and with winds out of the west-southwest at 13 miles per hour. That might put the damper on a team that figured to be a low-scoring battle between two ball control teams. Baltimore comes into this game 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS while Tennessee is 13-5 and 12-4 in those categories, with the figures meaning both have played above expectations all season. However, there are three edges Tennessee, which beat Baltimore 13-10 in Baltimore in the fourth game of the season, has that I believe will make the difference. 1. While both teams have excellent running games, the efficiency of the quarterback is going to be a major factor—and Tennessee has a big edge with the grizzled and seasoned old pro in Kerry Collins. He is no world-beater but he does not make the mistakes that get teams beaten. As much respect as I have for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, he will be facing a one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL and it has not been lost on me that he completed 9-of-23 passes for just 135 yards in last week’s playoff win over Miami. The Titans are no Miami, to say the least. 2. Tennessee had last week off to get ready for this while the Ravens had to play in the wild-card round at Miami. A rested team this deep into the season always has some edge. 3. Tennessee is at home. Both these teams play great defense, with Tennessee giving up just 14.9 points and 293.6 yards per game and Baltimore surrendering just 14.6 points 261.9 yards per outing. The quality of defensive play almost insures a close game and I believe the Titans have a far better chance of taking Flacco out of the game than the Ravens have of rattling Collins.
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Paid and confirmed
2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 10, 2009
NFL Playoff Game Of The Year
100 Units
Titans (-3) over Ravens
4:30 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - LP Field
Tennessee by 7-10
TV: CBS Comments: The first thing one must consider in this American Football Conference showdown is the weather, and it could be downright dreadful. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with a game-time temperature of 45 degrees and with winds out of the west-southwest at 13 miles per hour. That might put the damper on a team that figured to be a low-scoring battle between two ball control teams. Baltimore comes into this game 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS while Tennessee is 13-5 and 12-4 in those categories, with the figures meaning both have played above expectations all season. However, there are three edges Tennessee, which beat Baltimore 13-10 in Baltimore in the fourth game of the season, has that I believe will make the difference. 1. While both teams have excellent running games, the efficiency of the quarterback is going to be a major factor—and Tennessee has a big edge with the grizzled and seasoned old pro in Kerry Collins. He is no world-beater but he does not make the mistakes that get teams beaten. As much respect as I have for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, he will be facing a one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL and it has not been lost on me that he completed 9-of-23 passes for just 135 yards in last week’s playoff win over Miami. The Titans are no Miami, to say the least. 2. Tennessee had last week off to get ready for this while the Ravens had to play in the wild-card round at Miami. A rested team this deep into the season always has some edge. 3. Tennessee is at home. Both these teams play great defense, with Tennessee giving up just 14.9 points and 293.6 yards per game and Baltimore surrendering just 14.6 points 261.9 yards per outing. The quality of defensive play almost insures a close game and I believe the Titans have a far better chance of taking Flacco out of the game than the Ravens have of rattling Collins.
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Paid and confirmed
Randall the Handle
TENNESSEE –3 over Baltimore
Every radio talk show, every expert and just about every bettor is leaning Ravens here and that’s the first red flag. The talk is all about the great defense of these Ravens and nobody can dispute that. However, in the interesting world of NFL football, things are sometimes not what they appear to be. A close look of the Ravens shows the team losing three of its first five games and then a soft schedule took over. Incidentally, they lost to Tennessee in Baltimore in week 4 and they followed that up with a 31-3 loss at Indy. The Ravens next four games came against Miami, Oakland, Cleveland and Houston and then they played another quality team, the Giants, and lost 30-10. After the Giants loss the team then won three in a row over the then reeling Eagles, Bengals and Skins. Big deal. They then played Pittsburgh and lost 13-9 followed by wins to close out the year over Dallas and Jacksonville. So, the Ravens played seven playoff teams this year and lost five of them and even when they beat Dallas, the Boys hung a 24 on them. Now, let’s go back to last week’s win in Miami. The Ravens had great field position all day and with seven minutes to go, down just 17-6, the Dolphins were driving with a chance to make it 17-14 if they hit a two point conversion. What’s significant and actually should be concerning to Raven backer is at that point of the game the Fish had turned the ball over five times and should’ve been in no position to make a game of it. No way, do these Titans give the Ravens a short field all day or five takeaways. This is a sound Titans team that is well-coached and that rarely makes a costly mistake. Also note that the Titans defense is even more ferocious then the Ravens and if Joe Flacco and this pedestrian offense couldn’t move on Miami, how the hell are they going to move the ball on the Titans? Not sure why nobody wants to believe in these Titans but this team answered the bell over and over and over again during the regular season. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare, they’re healthy, they have a deadly running game to go along with a wickedly good defense and they’re at home. Baltimore’s win over the Dolphins last week was not as impressive as the media is making it out to be. Miami stunk the joint up. The Titans won’t do the same and by the fourth quarter the Ravens defense will have been on the field way too long and because of an offense that can’t move five yards. You want to count on five turnovers, go ahead. I’ll play the better team at home with two weeks to prepare. Play: Tennessee –3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
CAROLINA –10 over Arizona
I’m almost never in favor of the laying 10 points in a playoff game but unlike the rest of the country, these Cardinals still did not impress me in last week’s playoff win over the Falcons. The Cards jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead but both TD’s were very lucky. In the second TD, Warner threw into double coverage and it miraculously landed in the hands of Fitzgerald, who took it all the way. The Falcons dominated time of possession and actually took a lead into the half. But mistake after mistake did them in and they succumbed to an inferior opponent. The Falcons running game never got going and that, too, did them in. However, the same fate does not await the Panthers. Unlike the young Falcons, the Panthers are experienced and they’re powerful. They haven’t lost at home this season and no team in the NFL wears down a defense like the Panthers. They scored 28 points or more in each of the last seven weeks of the season and if they’re not running the ball down the throats of the opposition, Jake Delhomme is hitting open receivers. They also have a damn good defense. The Cardinals are imposters. They were fortunate last week to be able to run the ball and to stop the run. That scenario repeating itself here is just not going to happen. The Cardinals are the worst traveling team in the NFL and you can quadruple that when they travel east. A pass-happy, one-dimensional offense is not going to come into this barn and upset or stay close to this hugely superior host. There’s a reason the Cardinals always get blown out on the road and we’ll all be reminded of that here. Play: Carolina –10 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
TENNESSEE –3 over Baltimore
Every radio talk show, every expert and just about every bettor is leaning Ravens here and that’s the first red flag. The talk is all about the great defense of these Ravens and nobody can dispute that. However, in the interesting world of NFL football, things are sometimes not what they appear to be. A close look of the Ravens shows the team losing three of its first five games and then a soft schedule took over. Incidentally, they lost to Tennessee in Baltimore in week 4 and they followed that up with a 31-3 loss at Indy. The Ravens next four games came against Miami, Oakland, Cleveland and Houston and then they played another quality team, the Giants, and lost 30-10. After the Giants loss the team then won three in a row over the then reeling Eagles, Bengals and Skins. Big deal. They then played Pittsburgh and lost 13-9 followed by wins to close out the year over Dallas and Jacksonville. So, the Ravens played seven playoff teams this year and lost five of them and even when they beat Dallas, the Boys hung a 24 on them. Now, let’s go back to last week’s win in Miami. The Ravens had great field position all day and with seven minutes to go, down just 17-6, the Dolphins were driving with a chance to make it 17-14 if they hit a two point conversion. What’s significant and actually should be concerning to Raven backer is at that point of the game the Fish had turned the ball over five times and should’ve been in no position to make a game of it. No way, do these Titans give the Ravens a short field all day or five takeaways. This is a sound Titans team that is well-coached and that rarely makes a costly mistake. Also note that the Titans defense is even more ferocious then the Ravens and if Joe Flacco and this pedestrian offense couldn’t move on Miami, how the hell are they going to move the ball on the Titans? Not sure why nobody wants to believe in these Titans but this team answered the bell over and over and over again during the regular season. Now they’ve had two weeks to prepare, they’re healthy, they have a deadly running game to go along with a wickedly good defense and they’re at home. Baltimore’s win over the Dolphins last week was not as impressive as the media is making it out to be. Miami stunk the joint up. The Titans won’t do the same and by the fourth quarter the Ravens defense will have been on the field way too long and because of an offense that can’t move five yards. You want to count on five turnovers, go ahead. I’ll play the better team at home with two weeks to prepare. Play: Tennessee –3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
CAROLINA –10 over Arizona
I’m almost never in favor of the laying 10 points in a playoff game but unlike the rest of the country, these Cardinals still did not impress me in last week’s playoff win over the Falcons. The Cards jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead but both TD’s were very lucky. In the second TD, Warner threw into double coverage and it miraculously landed in the hands of Fitzgerald, who took it all the way. The Falcons dominated time of possession and actually took a lead into the half. But mistake after mistake did them in and they succumbed to an inferior opponent. The Falcons running game never got going and that, too, did them in. However, the same fate does not await the Panthers. Unlike the young Falcons, the Panthers are experienced and they’re powerful. They haven’t lost at home this season and no team in the NFL wears down a defense like the Panthers. They scored 28 points or more in each of the last seven weeks of the season and if they’re not running the ball down the throats of the opposition, Jake Delhomme is hitting open receivers. They also have a damn good defense. The Cardinals are imposters. They were fortunate last week to be able to run the ball and to stop the run. That scenario repeating itself here is just not going to happen. The Cardinals are the worst traveling team in the NFL and you can quadruple that when they travel east. A pass-happy, one-dimensional offense is not going to come into this barn and upset or stay close to this hugely superior host. There’s a reason the Cardinals always get blown out on the road and we’ll all be reminded of that here. Play: Carolina –10 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (12-5, 13-4 ATS) at Tennessee (13-3, 12-4 ATS)
The sixth-seeded Ravens aim to continue their SU and ATS tear when they travel to LP Stadium to take on the Titans, who got to rest up last week after earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Baltimore stuffed No. 3 seed Miami 27-9 as a 3½-point road chalk last Sunday in the wild-card round, moving to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (9 of 23, 135 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had little success, though he did run for the final score, and RBs Le’Ron McClain (19 carries, 75 yards, 1 TD) and Willis McGahee (7 carries, 62 yards) helped the Ravens put up 151 rushing yards. But the difference was Baltimore’s suffocating defense, which forced five turnovers out of Dolphins QB Chad Pennington – one fumble and four INTs, one of which Ed Reed returned 64 yards for a TD. The Ravens had just one turnover and finished with a seven-minute edge in time of possession.
Tennessee lost to Indianapolis 23-0 in a meaningless game two weeks ago to cap the regular season, but after their 10-0 SU start, the Titans finished 3-3 SU and ATS. Against the Colts, QB Kerry Collins (1 of 2, 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was relieved early in the second quarter by Vince Young (9 of 13, 55 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), and Tennessee finished with a paltry 125 total yards. The defense, meanwhile, yielded 390 yards to the Colts, even though QB Peyton Manning (7 of 7, 95 yards, 1 TD) played only the first possession and Indy rested or limited several other players.
The SU winner is now 26-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 28 games, including 16-1 ATS this season, and the SU winner has gone 15-1 ATS for the Titans this year.
Tennessee is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road win in October as a one-point favorite. However, the Ravens are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in Nashville, and the underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
In the regular season, Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 ground attack at 148.5 ypg (fourth overall), with McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Defensively, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed, at a stingy 261.1 per game, and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). With Reed’s league-leading nine INTs paving the way, the Ravens finished at plus-13 in turnover differential. Reed had two more picks last week, and Baltimore is now plus-17 in turnover ratio.
Tennessee averaged 23.1 ppg (tied for 14th) and 313.6 ypg (21st), paced by the AFC’s third-best rushing attack at 137.4 ypg (seventh overall). Rookie RB Chris Johnson (1,228 yards, 9 TDs, 4.9 ypc) was the conference’s third-leading rusher (eighth overall), and LenDale White (773 yards, 3.9 ypc) had an AFC-leading 15 rushing TDs, which tied for third in the league. Collins replaced Young after Week 1 and completed 58.3 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards (27th), with 12 TDs against 7 INTs.
Tennessee’s defense allowed just 14.6 ppg (second) and 293.6 ypg (seventh), including just 93.9 rushing ypg (sixth). The Titans finished the regular season with a plus-14 turnover differential.
The Ravens are on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 7-1 in the AFC, 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 in road playoff contests, 9-2 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 as a road dog. That said, they’re still on ATS hiccups of 1-5 in January games and 1-4 on Saturday. The Titans also sport a bevy of ATS hot streaks, including 7-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 at home, 9-3 against the AFC, 10-4 as a chalk and 14-4-1 as a home favorite of three points or less.
The under for Baltimore is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 in the playoffs and 4-1-1 against winning teams. The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 4-1 in January, 4-1 on Saturday and 9-3-1 against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six clashes, with this year’s 13-10 battle coming in way below the posted total. However, the over is 5-1-1 in the Ravens’ last seven roadies and 6-1 in the Titans’ last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Arizona (10-7 SU and ATS) at Carolina (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
The second-seeded Panthers, who finished the season on an 8-2 SU roll, go back to work after a week off when they host the fourth-seeded Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina squeaked past New Orleans 33-31 as a 2 ½-point road chalk in the regular-season finale to improve to 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in its last five games. The Panthers were outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter, but the three points came off the foot of John Kasay, who drilled a last-second, 42-yard field goal to win it as Carolina held off the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South title and No. 2 seed. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 20, 250 yards, 1 TD) paced a turnover-free offense against the Saints, RB DeAngelo Williams (25 carries, 178 yards) went wild, and WR Steve Smith (5 catches, 134 yards) also had a big day as the Panthers outgained the Saints 478-417.
Kasay proved to be the difference-maker throughout, connecting on four of five field goals, and Carolina’s defense forced two turnovers, helping the Panthers win the time-of-possession battle by nearly 14 minutes (36:55-23:05).
Arizona, the NFC West champion, outlasted fifth-seeded Atlanta 30-24 as a 1½-point favorite in a Saturday wild-card game last week and has bounced back from two blowout losses with a pair of SU and ATS victories. QB Kurt Warner (19 of 32, 271 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady, connecting on TD passes of 42 yards to Larry Fitzgerald (6 catches, 101 yards) and 71 yards to Anquan Boldin, and his pick was the Cards’ lone turnover. RB Edgerrin James added 73 yards on 16 carries (4.6 ypc).
Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense forced Matt Ryan into two INTs, Antrel Rolle returned a fumble 27 yards for a TD, and the Cardinals also recorded a safety while holding the Falcons to just 250 total yards.
These teams squared off in October, as the Panthers claimed a 27-23 home victory, but Arizona got the cash as a five-point pup. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU tear in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), as these squads have met during the regular season seven of the last eight years. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is also 5-2 ATS in that span.
Carolina finished the regular season with the league’s third-best rushing unit, putting up 152.3 ypg on the ground to pace an offense that averaged 349.7 total ypg (10th) and 25.9 ppg (seventh). Williams rolled up 1,515 rushing yards (third), averaging a robust 5.5 ypc, and he had a league-leading 18 rushing TDs. Backfield mate Jonathan Stewart (836 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs) also had a solid rookie season. Delhomme hit on 59.4 percent of his passes for 3,288 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs, and Smith had 78 catches for 1,421 yards (18.2 ypc) in just 14 contests, leading the league with an average of 101.5 ypg.
Defensively, Carolina allowed 331.2 ypg (18th) and 20.6 ppg (12th), and the Panthers finished the season with a plus-6 turnover differential.
In the regular season, Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, fourth overall) and yards (1,431, second overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Although it was solid against Atlanta last week, Arizona still ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and yielded an average of 331.5 total ypg (19th) in the regular season, and the Cards had an even turnover margin.
The Panthers are on ATS runs of 6-1 in the playoffs, 8-3-1 laying points, 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 as a home chalk, 4-1-1 on Saturday and 6-2 in January. The Cardinals are on a 6-0 ATS run in Saturday contests and have cashed in their last four January games, but they are on ATS slides of 2-7 as an underdog and 1-6 as a road pup.
The over for Carolina is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 7-0 against the NFC, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 in the playoffs and 9-3 in January. Likewise, the over for Arizona is on several lengthy rolls, including 36-16 overall, 38-15 on the road, 39-12 with the Cards a road ‘dog, 21-7 after a SU win, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 20-8 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and OVER
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Baltimore (12-5, 13-4 ATS) at Tennessee (13-3, 12-4 ATS)
The sixth-seeded Ravens aim to continue their SU and ATS tear when they travel to LP Stadium to take on the Titans, who got to rest up last week after earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Baltimore stuffed No. 3 seed Miami 27-9 as a 3½-point road chalk last Sunday in the wild-card round, moving to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (9 of 23, 135 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had little success, though he did run for the final score, and RBs Le’Ron McClain (19 carries, 75 yards, 1 TD) and Willis McGahee (7 carries, 62 yards) helped the Ravens put up 151 rushing yards. But the difference was Baltimore’s suffocating defense, which forced five turnovers out of Dolphins QB Chad Pennington – one fumble and four INTs, one of which Ed Reed returned 64 yards for a TD. The Ravens had just one turnover and finished with a seven-minute edge in time of possession.
Tennessee lost to Indianapolis 23-0 in a meaningless game two weeks ago to cap the regular season, but after their 10-0 SU start, the Titans finished 3-3 SU and ATS. Against the Colts, QB Kerry Collins (1 of 2, 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was relieved early in the second quarter by Vince Young (9 of 13, 55 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), and Tennessee finished with a paltry 125 total yards. The defense, meanwhile, yielded 390 yards to the Colts, even though QB Peyton Manning (7 of 7, 95 yards, 1 TD) played only the first possession and Indy rested or limited several other players.
The SU winner is now 26-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 28 games, including 16-1 ATS this season, and the SU winner has gone 15-1 ATS for the Titans this year.
Tennessee is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road win in October as a one-point favorite. However, the Ravens are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in Nashville, and the underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
In the regular season, Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 ground attack at 148.5 ypg (fourth overall), with McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.
Defensively, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed, at a stingy 261.1 per game, and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). With Reed’s league-leading nine INTs paving the way, the Ravens finished at plus-13 in turnover differential. Reed had two more picks last week, and Baltimore is now plus-17 in turnover ratio.
Tennessee averaged 23.1 ppg (tied for 14th) and 313.6 ypg (21st), paced by the AFC’s third-best rushing attack at 137.4 ypg (seventh overall). Rookie RB Chris Johnson (1,228 yards, 9 TDs, 4.9 ypc) was the conference’s third-leading rusher (eighth overall), and LenDale White (773 yards, 3.9 ypc) had an AFC-leading 15 rushing TDs, which tied for third in the league. Collins replaced Young after Week 1 and completed 58.3 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards (27th), with 12 TDs against 7 INTs.
Tennessee’s defense allowed just 14.6 ppg (second) and 293.6 ypg (seventh), including just 93.9 rushing ypg (sixth). The Titans finished the regular season with a plus-14 turnover differential.
The Ravens are on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 7-1 in the AFC, 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 in road playoff contests, 9-2 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 as a road dog. That said, they’re still on ATS hiccups of 1-5 in January games and 1-4 on Saturday. The Titans also sport a bevy of ATS hot streaks, including 7-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 at home, 9-3 against the AFC, 10-4 as a chalk and 14-4-1 as a home favorite of three points or less.
The under for Baltimore is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 in the playoffs and 4-1-1 against winning teams. The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 4-1 in January, 4-1 on Saturday and 9-3-1 against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six clashes, with this year’s 13-10 battle coming in way below the posted total. However, the over is 5-1-1 in the Ravens’ last seven roadies and 6-1 in the Titans’ last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Arizona (10-7 SU and ATS) at Carolina (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
The second-seeded Panthers, who finished the season on an 8-2 SU roll, go back to work after a week off when they host the fourth-seeded Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina squeaked past New Orleans 33-31 as a 2 ½-point road chalk in the regular-season finale to improve to 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in its last five games. The Panthers were outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter, but the three points came off the foot of John Kasay, who drilled a last-second, 42-yard field goal to win it as Carolina held off the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South title and No. 2 seed. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 20, 250 yards, 1 TD) paced a turnover-free offense against the Saints, RB DeAngelo Williams (25 carries, 178 yards) went wild, and WR Steve Smith (5 catches, 134 yards) also had a big day as the Panthers outgained the Saints 478-417.
Kasay proved to be the difference-maker throughout, connecting on four of five field goals, and Carolina’s defense forced two turnovers, helping the Panthers win the time-of-possession battle by nearly 14 minutes (36:55-23:05).
Arizona, the NFC West champion, outlasted fifth-seeded Atlanta 30-24 as a 1½-point favorite in a Saturday wild-card game last week and has bounced back from two blowout losses with a pair of SU and ATS victories. QB Kurt Warner (19 of 32, 271 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady, connecting on TD passes of 42 yards to Larry Fitzgerald (6 catches, 101 yards) and 71 yards to Anquan Boldin, and his pick was the Cards’ lone turnover. RB Edgerrin James added 73 yards on 16 carries (4.6 ypc).
Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense forced Matt Ryan into two INTs, Antrel Rolle returned a fumble 27 yards for a TD, and the Cardinals also recorded a safety while holding the Falcons to just 250 total yards.
These teams squared off in October, as the Panthers claimed a 27-23 home victory, but Arizona got the cash as a five-point pup. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU tear in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), as these squads have met during the regular season seven of the last eight years. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is also 5-2 ATS in that span.
Carolina finished the regular season with the league’s third-best rushing unit, putting up 152.3 ypg on the ground to pace an offense that averaged 349.7 total ypg (10th) and 25.9 ppg (seventh). Williams rolled up 1,515 rushing yards (third), averaging a robust 5.5 ypc, and he had a league-leading 18 rushing TDs. Backfield mate Jonathan Stewart (836 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs) also had a solid rookie season. Delhomme hit on 59.4 percent of his passes for 3,288 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs, and Smith had 78 catches for 1,421 yards (18.2 ypc) in just 14 contests, leading the league with an average of 101.5 ypg.
Defensively, Carolina allowed 331.2 ypg (18th) and 20.6 ppg (12th), and the Panthers finished the season with a plus-6 turnover differential.
In the regular season, Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, fourth overall) and yards (1,431, second overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.
Although it was solid against Atlanta last week, Arizona still ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and yielded an average of 331.5 total ypg (19th) in the regular season, and the Cards had an even turnover margin.
The Panthers are on ATS runs of 6-1 in the playoffs, 8-3-1 laying points, 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 as a home chalk, 4-1-1 on Saturday and 6-2 in January. The Cardinals are on a 6-0 ATS run in Saturday contests and have cashed in their last four January games, but they are on ATS slides of 2-7 as an underdog and 1-6 as a road pup.
The over for Carolina is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 7-0 against the NFC, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 in the playoffs and 9-3 in January. Likewise, the over for Arizona is on several lengthy rolls, including 36-16 overall, 38-15 on the road, 39-12 with the Cards a road ‘dog, 21-7 after a SU win, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 20-8 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and OVER
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Masterbets
Bet on the RAVENS to cover the spread
Underdogs have risen to the challenge in the second round of NFL playoffs in recent years, going 7-1 the last 8 games (ATS)! That's an amazing stat and should stop to give you pause when handicapping a game like this one. Yes, the Titans had a great season and they are at home on a week's rest. But the Ravens have all the momentum, are playing the best defense seen in years not just this season, and they come to the Titans with revenge for an earlier loss in the season.
The Titans have key injury problems on their lines, and if you thought Pennington was vulnerable last week against Baltimore we advise you to look away when the Ravens get after another aged immobile QB in Kerry Collins.
There is a reason why oddsmakers have the Titans at -2.5 points on their home turf. They're not "disrespecting" them, they're telling you that this is a trap game for the home team! Oddsmakers want to create the right value line and if they are correct the Ravens should win here straight up. Take BALTIMORE + the points today.
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Bet on the RAVENS to cover the spread
Underdogs have risen to the challenge in the second round of NFL playoffs in recent years, going 7-1 the last 8 games (ATS)! That's an amazing stat and should stop to give you pause when handicapping a game like this one. Yes, the Titans had a great season and they are at home on a week's rest. But the Ravens have all the momentum, are playing the best defense seen in years not just this season, and they come to the Titans with revenge for an earlier loss in the season.
The Titans have key injury problems on their lines, and if you thought Pennington was vulnerable last week against Baltimore we advise you to look away when the Ravens get after another aged immobile QB in Kerry Collins.
There is a reason why oddsmakers have the Titans at -2.5 points on their home turf. They're not "disrespecting" them, they're telling you that this is a trap game for the home team! Oddsmakers want to create the right value line and if they are correct the Ravens should win here straight up. Take BALTIMORE + the points today.
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Power Sweep
TEN won the first meeting 13-10 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 5. The D's dominated & BAL had a 231-67 yd edge late 3Q when TEN had an 81/13pl drive (26 yd FG). On TEN's next drive Collins threw inc on 3rd & 10. BAL was charged with a very ? roughing pen keeping the drive alive for Collins to toss an 11 yd TD to go ahead w/2:00 left. Flacco (153 yds, 67%) thew his 2nd int 2pl later to seal it for TEN. Collins in his 1st rematch vs BAL defense since SB 35 had 163 yds (53%) with a 1-2 ratio. BAL won the ground war with 132 yds (3.2) while TEN was held to 47 (2.1) (2nd lowest). BAL is 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road with a 26-19 avg score. TEN went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home with a 22-21 avg score. There are plenty of common foes. BAL went 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS with a 331-248 yd edge (+7 TO's) for a 24-15 avg score. TEN went 7-2 SU & ATS as they had no interest in the season finale vs IND. Minus that gm they had a 321-278 yd edge (+6 TO's) with a 25-13 avg score. Collins is 3-3 SU & ATS in the playoffs avg 213 ypg (58%) with a 13-10 ratio & DNP in LY's gm vs SD. This will be Fisher's 11th playoff gm (5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS) & he is 0-2 ATS at home while Harbaugh is in his 2nd overall gm.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the preseason issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE & then 3 str losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team with 902 (3.9) as McGahee (671, 3.9) & Rice (454, 4.2) were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to guy catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat avg 17.0 ypc. TE Heap's numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of BAL you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 D & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only tm which gained over 92 yds rush. The 3-4 D has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself TY remaining the def leader while both OLB/DE Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int & Rolle bounced back from a bad '07. BAL our #23 ST's as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
Kerry Collins stepped in when Vince Young (torn left MCL) was KO'd vs JAX. Fisher named him the starter as long as he performed well. Collins plays to the strength of TEN's #7 rush off & minimizes mistakes. Not counting Wk 1 or 17 vs IND Collins avg'd 187 ypg (58%) with a 12-7 ratio & was only sacked 8x's. He can still take over a game when defenses sell out vs the run as CHI & JAX did. Rookie Chris Johnson & LenDale White have rushed for 125 ypg (4.4) as a duo. TEN is underpowered in terms of receivers so they spread the ball around with 6 players having 24 or more rec's. Justin Gage's 19.1 ypc would lead the NFL but his 34 rec are just short of the minimum. Chris Johnson's 43 rec's (6.0) reinforces his versatility while TE Scaife leads the team in overall rec which is a surprise with Alge Crumpler being the team's big FA pickup TY. The OL has simply been dominant as the 12 sks all'd leads the NFL. TEN's DL is arguably the best in the NFL with MIN DL being the only real competition. Haynesworth has been the best DT in the NFL the L2Y & has great chemistry with DE Vanden Bosch who has missed 6 gms. DT Brown is the unheralded starter on the DL & Kearse resurrected his career by ret to TEN. TEN gets the edge over MIN with its depth as DE's Ford, Ball & rookie DT Jones combined for 16.5 sks. WLB Bulluck is the only remaining TEN starter from SB 34 & the defensive leader. The secondary is solid as while SS Hope earned a Pro Bowl berth, FS Griffin (7 int) has played better & all the CB's are good in run support. TEN has our #11 ST's unit with an NFL best 25.4 KR avg & Bironas hitting 16-20 from 40+.
Flacco became the 1st NFL rookie ever to win a road playoff game. He now faces a TEN team on the road with more playmakers on both sides of the ball than what MIA had. Fisher expects DE Vanden Bosch & DT Haynesworth to play here & kept his team sharp with practices in pads during the bye. BAL had an impressive outing LW holding MIA to 276 yds but now travel for a 2nd straight week & even this very good defense will be tested by TEN's rested rush attack. TEN continues to be overlooked but they have covered 12 of 16 games TY incl 6 of 8 at home. The Titans defense has only allowed over 17 pts 3 times TY (twice vs IND, 1 meaningless) & in a letdown vs the Jets. Look for the Titans run game to take advantage of the overaggressive BAL LB's here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE BY 7 RATING: 2★
This is a rematch from earlier TY when CAR overcame a 17-3 deficit to pull out a 27-23 (-4) win. CAR entered the gm with the #2 pass D & all'd Warner 375 yds which is only 1 of 2 QB's to top 300 vs them. CAR was outgained 425-351 but scored on an 18/1pl drive & a 73/3pl drive with a 65 yd TD pass to Steve Smith. This is the 6th meeting in 6 season with CAR winning all 6 SU & going 3-0-1 ATS the L/4 with 3 of 4 going Over the total. They played 2 common foes in MIN & NYG. ARZ went 0-2 SU/ATS losing by a comb 72-43 while CAR also went 0-2 SU/ATS by a comb 54-38. ARZ is 3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS away while CAR is the only undefeated at home going 5-1-2 ATS. ARZ went 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs winning teams this reg season & CAR finished 3-4 SU & 2-4-1 ATS. John Fox is a veteran playoff HC with a 6-1 ATS record & ARZ HC Whisenhunt just finished an emotional week and now has to prepare the Cardinals for their first road playoff game S/'88.
ARZ is a very 1 dimensional offense relying on Warner to quickly get into a rhythm & set the tempo. He has seven 300 yd passing games and 3 WR’s that have 1,000 yds. Warner has had trouble with physical D’s going 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS as they disrupt the timing of the WR routes. Boldin & Fitzgerald are the best WR tandem with Breaston breaking out as the slot WR. However, the rushing game has been anemic avg just 74 ypg (3.5) & has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 11 games. ARZ benched RB James due to poor production & went with Tim Hightower in the 2H of the year but minus his 109 yd (5.0) game vs STL he has just 290 yds (2.4) on the yr. ARZ has started the same OL for all 16 gms & while they are 11th in sks all’d much of that is due to ARZ’s longer routes. The TE’s are a virtual non-factor in the ARZ system. DC Clancy Pendergast heads up a scheme oriented defense that gave up 414 yds offense in its 4 games prior to SEA. ARZ runs a hybrid 4-3/3-4 system & none of the 3 true DL started all 16 TY. After tallying 21 sk the first 8 ARZ has just 10 over the final 8 partially due to DE LaBoy missing most of the 2H of the season. ARZ has an active LB unit but the run defense slipped in the 4 games prior to SEA allowing 173 yds (4.6). ARZ has also given up the most passing TD’s in the NFL with a 38-15 ratio. ARZ does have a great safety tandem with FS Rolle & SS Wilson but the CB spot is suspect at best. Despite sending Sean Morey to the Pro Bowl TY the Cardinals have our #31 special teams as P Ben Graham has a putrid 32.0 net giving up 13.1 on PR’s.
CAR offense struggled thru a pair of poor seasons as they finished with a combined record of 15-17 in '06 & '07 avg 297 ypg & 16.8 ppg. A healthy Delhomme (3288, 59.4%, 15-12) at QB led this resurgent offense to a #10 final ranking & an even more impressive #5 ranking over the L8W. They finished averaging 350 ypg & 25.8 ppg (#7 in scoring offense). The success is based on the two-headed rush attack of DeAngelo Williams (1515, 5.5, 18 TD) & #1DC Jonathan Stewart (836, 4.5, 10 TD). Together they formed the best RB tandem in the NFL (#3 rush off) avg 147 ypg (5.1) as a duo & CAR had #1 rush off the L8W. This improvement was behind an OL which continuously changed as no one started all 16 games. Steve Smith showed again he is an elite WR finishing with 1,421 yds (18.2) despite being suspended for the first 2 games. Muhsin Muhammad (923, 14.2) was a threat on the opposite side & is one of the best blocking WR's in the NFL. TE Dante Rosario (209, 11.6) is a capable receiver but is often kept in to assist the OL while the RB's combined for 39 rec this year. The defense has dropped in their overall rankings each of the L4Y & finished at #18 (331 ypg) although their scoring defense improved to #12 (20.6 ppg). The DL has lived off their reputation TY & the strength to the defense is clearly the back 7. The DE's do get pressure as Julius Peppers (14.5 sks) & Charles Johnson (6 sks) can still bring it. DT Maake Kemoeatu (ankle) missed the L2 games & Damione Lewis (shoulder) sat out the season finale but both are expected to return for the playoffs. CAR has an underrated set of LB's led by MLB Jon Beason (#1 tklr, 138) who is flanked by Thomas Davis (#2, 113) & Na'il Diggs. CAR has played 7 games vs a top 10 offense (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) allowing just two 300 yd games passing vs ARZ & NO in last game of the year. CAR has good depth at CB with Chris Gamble as the #1 CB & while the secondary is good in run support the Safeties can be beaten by quality WR's. CAR has our #17 spec teams unit as while they have top 10 coverage units they are avg on KR's (22.9).
It's usually not wise to play the obvious in a playoff matchup but all things point to a high scoring game. We have two Top 10 offenses that are even better in scoring offense (#3 and #7) while their defenses both rank in the bottom half. We also like the matchup of the CAR run game vs ARZ #25 rush D (L4W) and Arizona's #2 pass offense vs Carolina's secondary which can be exposed with the deep pass.
FORECAST: Cardinals/Panthers Over 46' RATING: 3★
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TEN won the first meeting 13-10 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 5. The D's dominated & BAL had a 231-67 yd edge late 3Q when TEN had an 81/13pl drive (26 yd FG). On TEN's next drive Collins threw inc on 3rd & 10. BAL was charged with a very ? roughing pen keeping the drive alive for Collins to toss an 11 yd TD to go ahead w/2:00 left. Flacco (153 yds, 67%) thew his 2nd int 2pl later to seal it for TEN. Collins in his 1st rematch vs BAL defense since SB 35 had 163 yds (53%) with a 1-2 ratio. BAL won the ground war with 132 yds (3.2) while TEN was held to 47 (2.1) (2nd lowest). BAL is 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road with a 26-19 avg score. TEN went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home with a 22-21 avg score. There are plenty of common foes. BAL went 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS with a 331-248 yd edge (+7 TO's) for a 24-15 avg score. TEN went 7-2 SU & ATS as they had no interest in the season finale vs IND. Minus that gm they had a 321-278 yd edge (+6 TO's) with a 25-13 avg score. Collins is 3-3 SU & ATS in the playoffs avg 213 ypg (58%) with a 13-10 ratio & DNP in LY's gm vs SD. This will be Fisher's 11th playoff gm (5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS) & he is 0-2 ATS at home while Harbaugh is in his 2nd overall gm.
The Ravens surprised many by this playoff appearance but if you check out the preseason issue of Power Sweep you’ll see that we projected them as a playoff team. The season started with a pair of easy wins vs CIN & CLE & then 3 str losses to playoff bound PIT, TEN & IND. Flacco avg’d 169 ypg (63%) with a 1-7 ratio but he was named the starter as Cameron was impressed by his intangibles. BAL then won 7 of the next 8 with the only loss being a trip to the NYG. Over the rest of the year Flacco avg’d 193 ypg (59%) with a 13-5 ratio. One concern is a comp % which has dropped from 67% in Oct to 59% in Nov & 47% in Dec. The OL was a concern coming into the season & while only being avg in talent they were well coached & exceeded expectations. It is RB by committee as McClain leads the team with 902 (3.9) as McGahee (671, 3.9) & Rice (454, 4.2) were bothered by inj’s. Flacco quickly made Mason his go to guy catching the go ahead TD vs DAL with just 1 arm. Clayton is the deep threat avg 17.0 ypc. TE Heap's numbers dropped as he was kept in to help the OL. As you might expect with a rookie QB there are many checkdowns & the 3 RB’s combined for 74 rec. If you think of BAL you think of defense & that was certainly what got them here. BAL finished with the #2 D & the #3 scoring D. They held 11 foes to 13 or less & the NYG are the only tm which gained over 92 yds rush. The 3-4 D has an elite front 7 with NT Ngata becoming a top 5 NT in the NFL. LB Lewis reinvented himself TY remaining the def leader while both OLB/DE Suggs & Scott are playing at a PB level. Reed is again making big plays in the secondary with 9 int & Rolle bounced back from a bad '07. BAL our #23 ST's as they haven’t gotten much out of the return units TY.
Kerry Collins stepped in when Vince Young (torn left MCL) was KO'd vs JAX. Fisher named him the starter as long as he performed well. Collins plays to the strength of TEN's #7 rush off & minimizes mistakes. Not counting Wk 1 or 17 vs IND Collins avg'd 187 ypg (58%) with a 12-7 ratio & was only sacked 8x's. He can still take over a game when defenses sell out vs the run as CHI & JAX did. Rookie Chris Johnson & LenDale White have rushed for 125 ypg (4.4) as a duo. TEN is underpowered in terms of receivers so they spread the ball around with 6 players having 24 or more rec's. Justin Gage's 19.1 ypc would lead the NFL but his 34 rec are just short of the minimum. Chris Johnson's 43 rec's (6.0) reinforces his versatility while TE Scaife leads the team in overall rec which is a surprise with Alge Crumpler being the team's big FA pickup TY. The OL has simply been dominant as the 12 sks all'd leads the NFL. TEN's DL is arguably the best in the NFL with MIN DL being the only real competition. Haynesworth has been the best DT in the NFL the L2Y & has great chemistry with DE Vanden Bosch who has missed 6 gms. DT Brown is the unheralded starter on the DL & Kearse resurrected his career by ret to TEN. TEN gets the edge over MIN with its depth as DE's Ford, Ball & rookie DT Jones combined for 16.5 sks. WLB Bulluck is the only remaining TEN starter from SB 34 & the defensive leader. The secondary is solid as while SS Hope earned a Pro Bowl berth, FS Griffin (7 int) has played better & all the CB's are good in run support. TEN has our #11 ST's unit with an NFL best 25.4 KR avg & Bironas hitting 16-20 from 40+.
Flacco became the 1st NFL rookie ever to win a road playoff game. He now faces a TEN team on the road with more playmakers on both sides of the ball than what MIA had. Fisher expects DE Vanden Bosch & DT Haynesworth to play here & kept his team sharp with practices in pads during the bye. BAL had an impressive outing LW holding MIA to 276 yds but now travel for a 2nd straight week & even this very good defense will be tested by TEN's rested rush attack. TEN continues to be overlooked but they have covered 12 of 16 games TY incl 6 of 8 at home. The Titans defense has only allowed over 17 pts 3 times TY (twice vs IND, 1 meaningless) & in a letdown vs the Jets. Look for the Titans run game to take advantage of the overaggressive BAL LB's here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE BY 7 RATING: 2★
This is a rematch from earlier TY when CAR overcame a 17-3 deficit to pull out a 27-23 (-4) win. CAR entered the gm with the #2 pass D & all'd Warner 375 yds which is only 1 of 2 QB's to top 300 vs them. CAR was outgained 425-351 but scored on an 18/1pl drive & a 73/3pl drive with a 65 yd TD pass to Steve Smith. This is the 6th meeting in 6 season with CAR winning all 6 SU & going 3-0-1 ATS the L/4 with 3 of 4 going Over the total. They played 2 common foes in MIN & NYG. ARZ went 0-2 SU/ATS losing by a comb 72-43 while CAR also went 0-2 SU/ATS by a comb 54-38. ARZ is 3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS away while CAR is the only undefeated at home going 5-1-2 ATS. ARZ went 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs winning teams this reg season & CAR finished 3-4 SU & 2-4-1 ATS. John Fox is a veteran playoff HC with a 6-1 ATS record & ARZ HC Whisenhunt just finished an emotional week and now has to prepare the Cardinals for their first road playoff game S/'88.
ARZ is a very 1 dimensional offense relying on Warner to quickly get into a rhythm & set the tempo. He has seven 300 yd passing games and 3 WR’s that have 1,000 yds. Warner has had trouble with physical D’s going 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS as they disrupt the timing of the WR routes. Boldin & Fitzgerald are the best WR tandem with Breaston breaking out as the slot WR. However, the rushing game has been anemic avg just 74 ypg (3.5) & has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 11 games. ARZ benched RB James due to poor production & went with Tim Hightower in the 2H of the year but minus his 109 yd (5.0) game vs STL he has just 290 yds (2.4) on the yr. ARZ has started the same OL for all 16 gms & while they are 11th in sks all’d much of that is due to ARZ’s longer routes. The TE’s are a virtual non-factor in the ARZ system. DC Clancy Pendergast heads up a scheme oriented defense that gave up 414 yds offense in its 4 games prior to SEA. ARZ runs a hybrid 4-3/3-4 system & none of the 3 true DL started all 16 TY. After tallying 21 sk the first 8 ARZ has just 10 over the final 8 partially due to DE LaBoy missing most of the 2H of the season. ARZ has an active LB unit but the run defense slipped in the 4 games prior to SEA allowing 173 yds (4.6). ARZ has also given up the most passing TD’s in the NFL with a 38-15 ratio. ARZ does have a great safety tandem with FS Rolle & SS Wilson but the CB spot is suspect at best. Despite sending Sean Morey to the Pro Bowl TY the Cardinals have our #31 special teams as P Ben Graham has a putrid 32.0 net giving up 13.1 on PR’s.
CAR offense struggled thru a pair of poor seasons as they finished with a combined record of 15-17 in '06 & '07 avg 297 ypg & 16.8 ppg. A healthy Delhomme (3288, 59.4%, 15-12) at QB led this resurgent offense to a #10 final ranking & an even more impressive #5 ranking over the L8W. They finished averaging 350 ypg & 25.8 ppg (#7 in scoring offense). The success is based on the two-headed rush attack of DeAngelo Williams (1515, 5.5, 18 TD) & #1DC Jonathan Stewart (836, 4.5, 10 TD). Together they formed the best RB tandem in the NFL (#3 rush off) avg 147 ypg (5.1) as a duo & CAR had #1 rush off the L8W. This improvement was behind an OL which continuously changed as no one started all 16 games. Steve Smith showed again he is an elite WR finishing with 1,421 yds (18.2) despite being suspended for the first 2 games. Muhsin Muhammad (923, 14.2) was a threat on the opposite side & is one of the best blocking WR's in the NFL. TE Dante Rosario (209, 11.6) is a capable receiver but is often kept in to assist the OL while the RB's combined for 39 rec this year. The defense has dropped in their overall rankings each of the L4Y & finished at #18 (331 ypg) although their scoring defense improved to #12 (20.6 ppg). The DL has lived off their reputation TY & the strength to the defense is clearly the back 7. The DE's do get pressure as Julius Peppers (14.5 sks) & Charles Johnson (6 sks) can still bring it. DT Maake Kemoeatu (ankle) missed the L2 games & Damione Lewis (shoulder) sat out the season finale but both are expected to return for the playoffs. CAR has an underrated set of LB's led by MLB Jon Beason (#1 tklr, 138) who is flanked by Thomas Davis (#2, 113) & Na'il Diggs. CAR has played 7 games vs a top 10 offense (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) allowing just two 300 yd games passing vs ARZ & NO in last game of the year. CAR has good depth at CB with Chris Gamble as the #1 CB & while the secondary is good in run support the Safeties can be beaten by quality WR's. CAR has our #17 spec teams unit as while they have top 10 coverage units they are avg on KR's (22.9).
It's usually not wise to play the obvious in a playoff matchup but all things point to a high scoring game. We have two Top 10 offenses that are even better in scoring offense (#3 and #7) while their defenses both rank in the bottom half. We also like the matchup of the CAR run game vs ARZ #25 rush D (L4W) and Arizona's #2 pass offense vs Carolina's secondary which can be exposed with the deep pass.
FORECAST: Cardinals/Panthers Over 46' RATING: 3★
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Nelly's Greensheet
SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL playoff team off a first -round bye favored by six or more.
PLAY AGAINST: Carolina, Pittsburgh
(PLAY ON: Arizona, San Diego)
11-5, 68.75% since 2004
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2008
TENNESSEE (-3) Baltimore (35) 3:30 PM
Of the QBs without playoff experience last week Joe Flacco fared
the best, but he was carried by his defense. Flacco has just 135
yards passing and completed just 39 percent of his passes but he
avoided turnovers and had help from a solid running game.
Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 on the road in October with both
QBs throwing two interceptions. The Ravens had the yardage
advantage in that game but fell victim to ten fourth quarter
Tennessee points. These teams have very similar statistics with
Baltimore actually owning slight advantages on both sides of the ball
in terms of yardage but those numbers might be different had
Tennessee not conceded its final game. The Titans have been a
dominant ATS team this season and may be undervalued as most
believe the Ravens to be the most dangerous team from the Wild
Card games. Tennessee did not play it best ball down the stretch
but exerted itself when needed, dominating Pittsburgh late in the
season and the Titans and veteran coach Fisher and QB Collins
should have a great game plan in order. Tennessee will take care of
the ball and the Ravens will struggle without creating turnovers and
big plays on defense. Look for the Titans to hold its own as the top
seed as the Ravens are grabbing a little too much public attention
after beating a marginal Miami team. TITANS 24-17
RATING 2: TENNESSEE (-3)
RATING 1: ‘OVER 35’
CAROLINA (-10) Arizona (48½) 7:00 PM
If few people gave the Cardinals a shot last week, even fewer will
back them this week against the Carolina Panthers. Arizona must
make cross country travel, and west coast teams have had well
documented struggles making those trips this season. The Cardinals
did cover in Charlotte this season, losing by just four as a five-point
underdog in late October. Arizona out-gained the Panthers in that
game but Carolina had a big edge on the ground. The Panthers
feature one of the top rushing games in the league, averaging 152
yards per game and this will be a match-up of the ground attack
versus the pass attack. Normally the rushing team will earn our favor
but the Carolina defense has shown significant vulnerability against
good passing offenses. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans
all had big numbers against the Carolina defense the Panthers enter
this game having allowed an average of 29 points per game over the
final six games. The Panthers caught some great fortune this year in
several games and are not as strong of a top seed as this line
suggests . Carolina has strong home numbers but allowed more
yards on the year than the Cardinals and Arizona actually has
featured a very respectable run defense. PANTHERS 28-24
RATING 3: ARIZONA (+10)
RATING 2: ‘OVER 48½’
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SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL playoff team off a first -round bye favored by six or more.
PLAY AGAINST: Carolina, Pittsburgh
(PLAY ON: Arizona, San Diego)
11-5, 68.75% since 2004
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2008
TENNESSEE (-3) Baltimore (35) 3:30 PM
Of the QBs without playoff experience last week Joe Flacco fared
the best, but he was carried by his defense. Flacco has just 135
yards passing and completed just 39 percent of his passes but he
avoided turnovers and had help from a solid running game.
Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 on the road in October with both
QBs throwing two interceptions. The Ravens had the yardage
advantage in that game but fell victim to ten fourth quarter
Tennessee points. These teams have very similar statistics with
Baltimore actually owning slight advantages on both sides of the ball
in terms of yardage but those numbers might be different had
Tennessee not conceded its final game. The Titans have been a
dominant ATS team this season and may be undervalued as most
believe the Ravens to be the most dangerous team from the Wild
Card games. Tennessee did not play it best ball down the stretch
but exerted itself when needed, dominating Pittsburgh late in the
season and the Titans and veteran coach Fisher and QB Collins
should have a great game plan in order. Tennessee will take care of
the ball and the Ravens will struggle without creating turnovers and
big plays on defense. Look for the Titans to hold its own as the top
seed as the Ravens are grabbing a little too much public attention
after beating a marginal Miami team. TITANS 24-17
RATING 2: TENNESSEE (-3)
RATING 1: ‘OVER 35’
CAROLINA (-10) Arizona (48½) 7:00 PM
If few people gave the Cardinals a shot last week, even fewer will
back them this week against the Carolina Panthers. Arizona must
make cross country travel, and west coast teams have had well
documented struggles making those trips this season. The Cardinals
did cover in Charlotte this season, losing by just four as a five-point
underdog in late October. Arizona out-gained the Panthers in that
game but Carolina had a big edge on the ground. The Panthers
feature one of the top rushing games in the league, averaging 152
yards per game and this will be a match-up of the ground attack
versus the pass attack. Normally the rushing team will earn our favor
but the Carolina defense has shown significant vulnerability against
good passing offenses. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans
all had big numbers against the Carolina defense the Panthers enter
this game having allowed an average of 29 points per game over the
final six games. The Panthers caught some great fortune this year in
several games and are not as strong of a top seed as this line
suggests . Carolina has strong home numbers but allowed more
yards on the year than the Cardinals and Arizona actually has
featured a very respectable run defense. PANTHERS 28-24
RATING 3: ARIZONA (+10)
RATING 2: ‘OVER 48½’
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THE SPORTS MEMO
NFC DIVISIONAL
ARIZONA+10 AT CAROLINA
O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - Arizona dispatched the upstart Falcons with relative ease to set up a return trip to Charlotte.
The Panthers are a perfect 8-0 SU on this field with a 6-2 ATS mark including a week eight win over these same Cardinals. Fundamental - We saw a rather sharp decline in the Panthers’ defensive numbers down the stretch as they allowed 28 ppg over the final seven weeks. The pass defense in particular was awful. Heading into week eight the Panthers ranked second in the league against the pass but finished the season ranked 16th. Kurt Warner came in here to Charlotte and threw for 381 yards in the first meeting, leading the Cards to a hefty lead through three quarters of play. They never trailed by more than four. Look for Arizona’s second ranked passing offense to have success once again this week. Game Notes - Playoff underdogs of seven or more points are 8-5 ATS over the past two seasons including a run of six straight wins against the number. Final Take - This one figures to be back and forth with plenty of scoring which should favor Arizona and their quick-strike passing attack. Although the Panthers’ offense seems to be in great form the defense isn’t much better than their counterpart despite the perception in the market. With plenty of points providing us wiggle room and a strong history of big dogs covering in the playoffs, we’ll side with the Cards.
AFC DIVISIONAL
BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE -3
O/U 34.5
Recommendation: Tennessee
Situational - The Ravens defense stole the show in Miami during Wildcard weekend. They now travel to Nashville in a rematch of a week five battle in which the Titans won in Baltimore. Fundamental - The Ravens finished the regular season ranked second against the pass, third against the rush and third in points per game allowed. The Titans finished in the top ten in all of the same categories including second in points allowed at just 14.4 ppg. Last week the Ravens
picked off four passes, recovered a fumble and scored a TD, proving you don’t always need offense to win. Joe Flacco still struggled going 9-of-23. He won’t be able to survive with those numbers against a much better Titans team. Game Notes - Baltimore controlled the clock in the first meeting and actually held a fourth quarter lead before the Titans rallied for 10 straight to end the game. Penalties against Baltimore (91 yards) were a major issue. Final Take - Looking
at the other lines this week, you’ll see home teams laying at least four and up to 10. That should tell you just how undervalued the Titans are and have been all season long. This is a team that has lost just one home game and has beaten four playoff teams along the way. Lay the points and take the home team who despite the best record in football is still under the radar.
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NFC DIVISIONAL
ARIZONA+10 AT CAROLINA
O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - Arizona dispatched the upstart Falcons with relative ease to set up a return trip to Charlotte.
The Panthers are a perfect 8-0 SU on this field with a 6-2 ATS mark including a week eight win over these same Cardinals. Fundamental - We saw a rather sharp decline in the Panthers’ defensive numbers down the stretch as they allowed 28 ppg over the final seven weeks. The pass defense in particular was awful. Heading into week eight the Panthers ranked second in the league against the pass but finished the season ranked 16th. Kurt Warner came in here to Charlotte and threw for 381 yards in the first meeting, leading the Cards to a hefty lead through three quarters of play. They never trailed by more than four. Look for Arizona’s second ranked passing offense to have success once again this week. Game Notes - Playoff underdogs of seven or more points are 8-5 ATS over the past two seasons including a run of six straight wins against the number. Final Take - This one figures to be back and forth with plenty of scoring which should favor Arizona and their quick-strike passing attack. Although the Panthers’ offense seems to be in great form the defense isn’t much better than their counterpart despite the perception in the market. With plenty of points providing us wiggle room and a strong history of big dogs covering in the playoffs, we’ll side with the Cards.
AFC DIVISIONAL
BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE -3
O/U 34.5
Recommendation: Tennessee
Situational - The Ravens defense stole the show in Miami during Wildcard weekend. They now travel to Nashville in a rematch of a week five battle in which the Titans won in Baltimore. Fundamental - The Ravens finished the regular season ranked second against the pass, third against the rush and third in points per game allowed. The Titans finished in the top ten in all of the same categories including second in points allowed at just 14.4 ppg. Last week the Ravens
picked off four passes, recovered a fumble and scored a TD, proving you don’t always need offense to win. Joe Flacco still struggled going 9-of-23. He won’t be able to survive with those numbers against a much better Titans team. Game Notes - Baltimore controlled the clock in the first meeting and actually held a fourth quarter lead before the Titans rallied for 10 straight to end the game. Penalties against Baltimore (91 yards) were a major issue. Final Take - Looking
at the other lines this week, you’ll see home teams laying at least four and up to 10. That should tell you just how undervalued the Titans are and have been all season long. This is a team that has lost just one home game and has beaten four playoff teams along the way. Lay the points and take the home team who despite the best record in football is still under the radar.
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THE SPORTS MEMO
ED CASH
KANSAS AT MICHIGAN STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: Michigan State
Michigan State seems to have turned the corner after struggling to start the season. The play of center Goran Suton has been the difference after
he was injured early in the year and sat out in losses to Maryland and North Carolina. Since his return, they have won against Texas and on the road at Minnesota and Northwestern to open Big Ten play. Tom Izzo has said that he is the key to their offense and coupled with Raymar
Morgan, MSU has two interior players that shoot better than 63%. Kansas is no question a young outfit. They were blown out in their only true road game this season at Arizona and also lost to Syracuse and UMass on neutral courts. The Jayhawks have just one upperclassmen
with experience in their rotation along with three freshmen and two sophomores. Their youth was very apparent in the loss to Arizona, as they were outscored 49-29 in the second frame. On their home court, Michigan State has always been strong as this is one of the toughest places in the nation to play. Look for the Spartans to roll in this one.
DONNIE BLACK
UTAH STATE AT NEW MEXICO STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: New Mexico State
New Mexico State has endured a fairly difficult schedule with home-and-homes against New Mexico and UTEP and road games against Kansas and USC. In those six games, the Aggies were 1-6 but only two of those tilts were in Las Cruces – a win over UTEP and a two-point loss over rival New Mexico. Overall, NMSU is 6-1 at home and finds itself in a great spot this Saturday against Utah State. The other Aggies have enjoyed early season success with a 12-1 start as of Monday. They are one of the top shooting teams in the country at 52% FGs and 74% from the charity stripe. But a closer look shows they have benefited from some favorable scheduling. Their four true road games were against teams that are currently a combined 21-36 and against tougher competition, their extremely efficient offense wasn’t as potent. In games against BYU and Utah, USU was a combined 46-of-113, 41% FGs and 8-of-36, 22% from three-point range. All told Utah State’s strength of schedule ranks 279th out of 344 DI teams. In an identical situation last season, Utah State faced Louisiana Tech on the road on a Thursday, won by 10, and then turned right around and traveled to play New Mexico State on Saturday where they were crushed 100-70. We might not get another 30-point win but the situation suggests another New Mexico State victory.
MARTY OTTO
KANSAS AT MICHIGAN STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: Michigan State
Kansas is a very young team and not one I feel is ready for the type of hostile environment they’ll encounter this weekend at the Breslin Center. They play at least five freshman in their rotation with just one upperclassmen getting regular minutes. And with Goran Suton manning the paint for the Spartans, they have the ability to shutdown the Jayhawks’ biggest surprise, 6-11 Cole Aldrich. Since getting dismantled by North Carolina we’ve seen MSU play some pretty impressive basketball. Not only have they scored easy wins at home, but beat Texas, Minnesota and Northwestern on the road. That tells me this team is ready. Led by Kalin Lucas and his 6.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio we should see the Spartans’ guards beat the vaunted Kansas press. Once you break the press, scoring should prove easy despite Kansas’ misleading 37% FG defense. The numbers don’t lie; KU’s last three power conference opponents have scored at least 80 points. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road losing two neutral site tilts (Syracuse and UMass) and one true road game by 17 to Arizona. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Play the home team.
HELMUT SPORTS
UCONN AT CINCINNATI (1/10)
Recommendation: UConn
Cincinnati’s growth under coach Mick Cronin has been painfully slow. They lost shooting guard Cashmere Wright to an ACL injury before the season began and his absence was a big blow to the projected offense for Cincinnati. In games against the teams from the big name conferences, the Bearcats’ offense has really been exposed as they have only shot 38% from the field and almost 17 turnovers per game. It will be once again difficult to put points on the board against a UConn team that has held opponents to 38% from the field. The Bearcats were far from competitive against Memphis, Marquette and Xavier, losing all three by 10+ points. The Huskies have played a challenging schedule this season including impressive victories over Miami (FLA) and Wisconsin at the Paradise Jam. They then went to Seattle and beat Gonzaga. With a difficult game against at West Virginia on Tuesday it is possible that the Huskies will be 1-2 in the Big East and in desperate need of a win. Despite the home loss to Georgetown, this team is far superior to the Bearcats in just about every category and I feel confident laying the road chalk.
LOUISVILLE AT VILLANOVA (1/10)
Recommendation: Villanova
Louisville sure hasn’t done much to warrant its No. 3 preseason ranking. In fact, I don’t even consider this outfit to be among the top 15 teams in the country as of today. We’ve seen them lose at home to UNLV and on neutral courts to Western Kentucky and Minnesota. Their most impressive win was a buzzer beater at home against Kentucky. And when we break down the fundamentals we see that all three teams Louisville lost to had one thing in common; solid guard play. Villanova has better guards than any of those aforementioned teams. Guard Scottie Reynolds should have no trouble with the Louisville press and it will ultimately lead to a ton of easy buckets for the home team. Louisville has really struggled on offense this season against teams that have equal athletic ability, something I feel Villanova possesses. The Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 on its home court this year and 57-10 over the past 4+ years. We also get an added bonus with the large disparity in free throw shooting as Villanova leads the Big East at 77% as a team while Louisville ranks 12th at 65%. We’ll gladly play the Wildcats in this spot Saturday
ERIN RYNNING
NEW YORK AT HOUSTON (1/10)
Recommendation: New York
The Knicks will take to the Lonestar State with a stop in Dallas on Thursday, before Saturday night’s contest against the Rockets. Of late, the run-and-gun Knicks have rededicated themselves to the defensive side of the basketball court. After a recent stretch with little resistance to the Celtics, Timberwolves and Nuggets, it was time for some changes. They’ve talked about taking better shots within their offense, while looking to more consistent defensive outputs. The results have been there after holding two recent opponents under the 90-point barrier, including the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Rockets seem to be in turmoil with chemistry killers Tracy McGrady, Ron Artest and Rafer Alston all major suspects for their recent bout of lackluster play. Remember, the Rockets were always sound on the defensive end of the basketball court under Jeff Van Gundy but have struggled under Rick Adelman. In addition, this serves as a brutal spot for the Rockets as they’ll be playing their fourth game in five nights. The first three will have been on the road as this one will seem very much like another road contest for the Rockets. Take the Knicks on Saturday night.
ROB VENO
MILWAUKEE AT MINNESOTA (1/10)
Recommendation: OverWe’ll look to take advantage of both situational and fundamental angles in this matchup as Milwaukee will be in a back-to-back spot here after what figures to be a tough conference game Friday night versus New Jersey. Bucks’ head coach Scott Skiles has recently implanted a defensive mind set in his squad, which had not allowed 100 points in a contest until Charlotte broke through for 102 last Saturday night. The nine games prior saw Milwaukee allow a miniscule 85.5 ppg. Expect that defensive asset to evaporate somewhat in this contest, as their focus will be on three home Eastern Conference games this week. The T-Wolves will gladly welcome a defensive letdown from Milwaukee as their current uptick (6-2 ATS last eight game) is due to a surging offense. During this string, Minnesota has scored 100+ points six times and averaged 104.3 ppg. The matchups here really lend themselves to scoring potential and with Minnesota still defensively inept, this game could see each squad shoot 47% or better from the floor. The current base for Milwaukee totals, which has seen five straight lines under 190, is likely to drag this one down far enough to create plenty of value. I anticipate the opening number between 188-191 and look for the game to result in 197 or better.
TEDDY COVERS
NEW YORK AT HOUSTON (1/10)
Recommendation: New York
The Houston Rockets are completely falling apart right now. They’ve lost five out of seven in straight-up fashion (1-6 ATS) after dropping games at Toronto and Atlanta to open up their East Coast road trip. They lost at home to Washington as 13.5-point favorites on their last homestand, and failed to cover the pointspread in both wins during that span. Tracy McGrady is unhappy and whining, complaining about his lack of touches on offense and his chronically aching left knee. Shane Battier is hurt again, out of action for the next week or two. Rick Adelman seems to be losing control as effort and chemistry are clearly issues right now. Those problems aren’t likely to be resolved on the second night of back-to-backs, their first game after returning home following a long road trip. We’re talking about a team that has been awful in the role of a home favorite all season; cashing only 33% of the time in that role. Meanwhile,
the Knicks just got a major confidence boost with a big win over the defending champion Celtics prior to their swing through the Texas triangle. Look for the Rockets to struggle to win this game let alone by any sort of a margin.
JARED KLEIN
DALLAS AT PHOENIX (1/10)
Recommendation: Phoenix
The Phoenix Coyotes have been stellar at home this season and this weekend we’ll back them against a banged up Dallas team. The Stars have faced a slew of injuries, losing their best forward, Brenden Morrow,
and their best defenseman, Sergei Zubov. They also expect to be without the service of left winger Fabian Brunnstrom and center Joel Lundqvist this weekend. As an added bonus, we get them in a bad situational spot as they will be finishing up a four-game road trip that takes them through Vancouver, Detroit, Edmonton and then on to Phoenix on Saturday. Phoenix has been solid on their home ice this season with a record of 13-7. And since the return of center Olli Jokinen, they have won four out of their last six at home. “We’re playing really strong in this building, and the atmosphere is really solid,” head coach Wayne Gretzky was quoted as saying. “It’s enjoyable to come to the rink here and watch these kids play as hard as they’re playing.” Look for the young Coyotes to take care of the Stars this weekend at a reasonable price
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ED CASH
KANSAS AT MICHIGAN STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: Michigan State
Michigan State seems to have turned the corner after struggling to start the season. The play of center Goran Suton has been the difference after
he was injured early in the year and sat out in losses to Maryland and North Carolina. Since his return, they have won against Texas and on the road at Minnesota and Northwestern to open Big Ten play. Tom Izzo has said that he is the key to their offense and coupled with Raymar
Morgan, MSU has two interior players that shoot better than 63%. Kansas is no question a young outfit. They were blown out in their only true road game this season at Arizona and also lost to Syracuse and UMass on neutral courts. The Jayhawks have just one upperclassmen
with experience in their rotation along with three freshmen and two sophomores. Their youth was very apparent in the loss to Arizona, as they were outscored 49-29 in the second frame. On their home court, Michigan State has always been strong as this is one of the toughest places in the nation to play. Look for the Spartans to roll in this one.
DONNIE BLACK
UTAH STATE AT NEW MEXICO STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: New Mexico State
New Mexico State has endured a fairly difficult schedule with home-and-homes against New Mexico and UTEP and road games against Kansas and USC. In those six games, the Aggies were 1-6 but only two of those tilts were in Las Cruces – a win over UTEP and a two-point loss over rival New Mexico. Overall, NMSU is 6-1 at home and finds itself in a great spot this Saturday against Utah State. The other Aggies have enjoyed early season success with a 12-1 start as of Monday. They are one of the top shooting teams in the country at 52% FGs and 74% from the charity stripe. But a closer look shows they have benefited from some favorable scheduling. Their four true road games were against teams that are currently a combined 21-36 and against tougher competition, their extremely efficient offense wasn’t as potent. In games against BYU and Utah, USU was a combined 46-of-113, 41% FGs and 8-of-36, 22% from three-point range. All told Utah State’s strength of schedule ranks 279th out of 344 DI teams. In an identical situation last season, Utah State faced Louisiana Tech on the road on a Thursday, won by 10, and then turned right around and traveled to play New Mexico State on Saturday where they were crushed 100-70. We might not get another 30-point win but the situation suggests another New Mexico State victory.
MARTY OTTO
KANSAS AT MICHIGAN STATE (1/10)
Recommendation: Michigan State
Kansas is a very young team and not one I feel is ready for the type of hostile environment they’ll encounter this weekend at the Breslin Center. They play at least five freshman in their rotation with just one upperclassmen getting regular minutes. And with Goran Suton manning the paint for the Spartans, they have the ability to shutdown the Jayhawks’ biggest surprise, 6-11 Cole Aldrich. Since getting dismantled by North Carolina we’ve seen MSU play some pretty impressive basketball. Not only have they scored easy wins at home, but beat Texas, Minnesota and Northwestern on the road. That tells me this team is ready. Led by Kalin Lucas and his 6.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio we should see the Spartans’ guards beat the vaunted Kansas press. Once you break the press, scoring should prove easy despite Kansas’ misleading 37% FG defense. The numbers don’t lie; KU’s last three power conference opponents have scored at least 80 points. The Jayhawks have struggled on the road losing two neutral site tilts (Syracuse and UMass) and one true road game by 17 to Arizona. I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Play the home team.
HELMUT SPORTS
UCONN AT CINCINNATI (1/10)
Recommendation: UConn
Cincinnati’s growth under coach Mick Cronin has been painfully slow. They lost shooting guard Cashmere Wright to an ACL injury before the season began and his absence was a big blow to the projected offense for Cincinnati. In games against the teams from the big name conferences, the Bearcats’ offense has really been exposed as they have only shot 38% from the field and almost 17 turnovers per game. It will be once again difficult to put points on the board against a UConn team that has held opponents to 38% from the field. The Bearcats were far from competitive against Memphis, Marquette and Xavier, losing all three by 10+ points. The Huskies have played a challenging schedule this season including impressive victories over Miami (FLA) and Wisconsin at the Paradise Jam. They then went to Seattle and beat Gonzaga. With a difficult game against at West Virginia on Tuesday it is possible that the Huskies will be 1-2 in the Big East and in desperate need of a win. Despite the home loss to Georgetown, this team is far superior to the Bearcats in just about every category and I feel confident laying the road chalk.
LOUISVILLE AT VILLANOVA (1/10)
Recommendation: Villanova
Louisville sure hasn’t done much to warrant its No. 3 preseason ranking. In fact, I don’t even consider this outfit to be among the top 15 teams in the country as of today. We’ve seen them lose at home to UNLV and on neutral courts to Western Kentucky and Minnesota. Their most impressive win was a buzzer beater at home against Kentucky. And when we break down the fundamentals we see that all three teams Louisville lost to had one thing in common; solid guard play. Villanova has better guards than any of those aforementioned teams. Guard Scottie Reynolds should have no trouble with the Louisville press and it will ultimately lead to a ton of easy buckets for the home team. Louisville has really struggled on offense this season against teams that have equal athletic ability, something I feel Villanova possesses. The Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 on its home court this year and 57-10 over the past 4+ years. We also get an added bonus with the large disparity in free throw shooting as Villanova leads the Big East at 77% as a team while Louisville ranks 12th at 65%. We’ll gladly play the Wildcats in this spot Saturday
ERIN RYNNING
NEW YORK AT HOUSTON (1/10)
Recommendation: New York
The Knicks will take to the Lonestar State with a stop in Dallas on Thursday, before Saturday night’s contest against the Rockets. Of late, the run-and-gun Knicks have rededicated themselves to the defensive side of the basketball court. After a recent stretch with little resistance to the Celtics, Timberwolves and Nuggets, it was time for some changes. They’ve talked about taking better shots within their offense, while looking to more consistent defensive outputs. The results have been there after holding two recent opponents under the 90-point barrier, including the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Rockets seem to be in turmoil with chemistry killers Tracy McGrady, Ron Artest and Rafer Alston all major suspects for their recent bout of lackluster play. Remember, the Rockets were always sound on the defensive end of the basketball court under Jeff Van Gundy but have struggled under Rick Adelman. In addition, this serves as a brutal spot for the Rockets as they’ll be playing their fourth game in five nights. The first three will have been on the road as this one will seem very much like another road contest for the Rockets. Take the Knicks on Saturday night.
ROB VENO
MILWAUKEE AT MINNESOTA (1/10)
Recommendation: OverWe’ll look to take advantage of both situational and fundamental angles in this matchup as Milwaukee will be in a back-to-back spot here after what figures to be a tough conference game Friday night versus New Jersey. Bucks’ head coach Scott Skiles has recently implanted a defensive mind set in his squad, which had not allowed 100 points in a contest until Charlotte broke through for 102 last Saturday night. The nine games prior saw Milwaukee allow a miniscule 85.5 ppg. Expect that defensive asset to evaporate somewhat in this contest, as their focus will be on three home Eastern Conference games this week. The T-Wolves will gladly welcome a defensive letdown from Milwaukee as their current uptick (6-2 ATS last eight game) is due to a surging offense. During this string, Minnesota has scored 100+ points six times and averaged 104.3 ppg. The matchups here really lend themselves to scoring potential and with Minnesota still defensively inept, this game could see each squad shoot 47% or better from the floor. The current base for Milwaukee totals, which has seen five straight lines under 190, is likely to drag this one down far enough to create plenty of value. I anticipate the opening number between 188-191 and look for the game to result in 197 or better.
TEDDY COVERS
NEW YORK AT HOUSTON (1/10)
Recommendation: New York
The Houston Rockets are completely falling apart right now. They’ve lost five out of seven in straight-up fashion (1-6 ATS) after dropping games at Toronto and Atlanta to open up their East Coast road trip. They lost at home to Washington as 13.5-point favorites on their last homestand, and failed to cover the pointspread in both wins during that span. Tracy McGrady is unhappy and whining, complaining about his lack of touches on offense and his chronically aching left knee. Shane Battier is hurt again, out of action for the next week or two. Rick Adelman seems to be losing control as effort and chemistry are clearly issues right now. Those problems aren’t likely to be resolved on the second night of back-to-backs, their first game after returning home following a long road trip. We’re talking about a team that has been awful in the role of a home favorite all season; cashing only 33% of the time in that role. Meanwhile,
the Knicks just got a major confidence boost with a big win over the defending champion Celtics prior to their swing through the Texas triangle. Look for the Rockets to struggle to win this game let alone by any sort of a margin.
JARED KLEIN
DALLAS AT PHOENIX (1/10)
Recommendation: Phoenix
The Phoenix Coyotes have been stellar at home this season and this weekend we’ll back them against a banged up Dallas team. The Stars have faced a slew of injuries, losing their best forward, Brenden Morrow,
and their best defenseman, Sergei Zubov. They also expect to be without the service of left winger Fabian Brunnstrom and center Joel Lundqvist this weekend. As an added bonus, we get them in a bad situational spot as they will be finishing up a four-game road trip that takes them through Vancouver, Detroit, Edmonton and then on to Phoenix on Saturday. Phoenix has been solid on their home ice this season with a record of 13-7. And since the return of center Olli Jokinen, they have won four out of their last six at home. “We’re playing really strong in this building, and the atmosphere is really solid,” head coach Wayne Gretzky was quoted as saying. “It’s enjoyable to come to the rink here and watch these kids play as hard as they’re playing.” Look for the young Coyotes to take care of the Stars this weekend at a reasonable price
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Al Demarco
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->I have always had CPAW or 50 cent post my contributions. Maybe I am paranoid, but it seems like it reduces the chances it could be traced back to me, whatever the risk might be. Anyway, I enjoy this forum immensely, I get a kick out of the comments and banter later in the day, and I have a lot of respect for several of the regular posters here. I thank you all by offering this selection from someone that has been very good all year in the NFL.
Also, if you listen to Al's free video he has a teaser of Carolina -4 and Pitt pick-em this weekend, the same four teams are in the CEO's Freehold, NJ teaser. I do not know if Al and the CEO ever disagree, I suppose it is possible they are the same.
Saturday's Pick
10 Dime - Titans
Baltimore is the pick here as the public was certainly swayed by its dominating defensive performance in an easy win at Miami last Sunday. The Ravens were my Best Bet in the Wildcard round, but let's not crown this team Super Bowl worthy yet. There's a big difference between taking on a Miami team with a mediocre ground game and average defense versus a Tennessee squad that excels in both areas.
Like every other game this weekend, this is a rematch as the Titans, despite getting outplayed, rallied for a 13-10 road victory in the season's first meeting in Week Five. With Chris Johnson held to just 44 yards on 18 carries, Tennessee needed Kerry Collins to lead its comeback and he delivered with the game-winning TD pass with 1:56 to play.
Baltimore is certainly on a roll, winning 10 of its last 12 straight-up, but when I review its schedule this year I see a team that failed repeatedly in "step-up" games. The Ravens lost by three and four points at home against Tennessee and Pittsburgh, respectively. On the road they lost by 20 to the Giants and three to the Steelers. The win at Dallas? I don't put much stock into it considering how the Cowboys totally collapsed down the stretch.
Tennessee struggled somewhat near the end of the season, playing .500 ball in its final six games. But the one contest that sticks out is the season's second-to-last game against Pittsburgh. The Steelers, who carried a five-game winning streak into the contest, were thoroughly dominated in a 31-14 loss. The Titans defense suffocated Ben Roethlisberger that day despite missing Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. The anchors of their defensive line are both back today and ready to put the pressure on Joe Flacco, who struggled through an 18-for-27 performance at Miami in which he passed for only 153 yards and was intercepted twice.
Tennessee's defense might be a notch below Baltimore's statistically, but it's a solid stop unit nonetheless. And while the Ravens were wildly successful harassing Miami's Chad Pennington last Sunday, they will not find similar success against Kerry Collins, who has been sacked just eight times in 15 starts this season.
These teams are similar, both relying on strong ground games and stifling defenses. But the Titans have the more experienced quarterback, the homefield advantage plus extra rest courtesy of a first-round bye. Those factors should prove to be the difference against a Baltimore squad playing on the road for a second straight weekend and off a short week of rest and preparation.
Speaking of the line.... As I post this play late Thursday night, Tennessee - as has been the case all week - is a solid -3.
My advice: Same as the CEO's, why not buy the insurance, Buy it down making Tennessee a -2 1/2 point favorite so you get the win should Tennessee prevail by just a field goal. If you get stuck with -3 1/2, even after shopping around, buy down the 1/2 point to make Tennessee -3 so you get a push should Tennessee win only by three.
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