page 1 post#24
kelso 100 units
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Saturday, January 10, 2009
NFL Playoff Game Of The Year
100 Units
Titans (-3) over Ravens
4:30 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - LP Field
Tennessee by 7-10
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Teddy June</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, January 10, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: These rare selections use to be only available to Teddy's private clients. Now available on the internet and he has been red hot with them posting a 42-17 (71%) record his last 59 all sports PPC selections!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>1/10/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>My 10* Private Players Club Selection is the Miami Florida Hurricanes plus the points over the Boston College Eagles. I currently have this line at +2.5. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: These rare selections use to be only available to Teddy's private clients. Now available on the internet and he has been red hot with them posting a 42-17 (71%) record his last 59 all sports PPC selections!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>1/10/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>My 10* Private Players Club Selection is the Miami Florida Hurricanes plus the points over the Boston College Eagles. I currently have this line at +2.5. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Sharp football analysis
Plays:
Car -9.5
Car/Pit Teaser - Note: (I would lay the higher juice and get 7 points to have Car-2.5/Pit+1 but if you can only lay 6 and are stuck with Car-3.5/Pit ML that should be fine too)
Write-ups:
Car -9.5
Arizona is 2-20 SU in its last 22 trips into the Eastern time zone and is 7-15 ATS.
Teams who won as a pick or dog at home and play on the road the following week as a dog of more than 1 TD are 1-6 ATS since 1991 if the game is on Primetime.
Divisional home favorites of 9 or more points in the first two rounds of the playoffs are 12-1 SU and are 10-3 ATS since 1997, winning by an avg of 17 points. Since 1994 they are 16-5 ATS, winning by an avg of 16 points.
I have another trend playoff trend which is 20-6-1 ATS since 1995 and favors Carolina.
I always like to look at the key numbers from last week to gauge a team’s performance. Remember, I took Arizona to pull the upset:
Arizona had a +2 turnover margin, with 2 of Atlanta’s turnovers coming on their 1st possession of the game and their 1stnd half. possession of the 2
I will talk more about this in the Turnover section, but the bottom line is Arizona does not protect the ball and force turnovers on the road like they do at home.
Arizona sacked Ryan 3 times and did not allow a single Atlanta sack on Warner.
I mentioned how this would be a key to the game and it really was a large factor.
Matt Ryan threw 40 passes, completing 26, for just 199 yards (4.4 ypp avg).
During the regular season, Ryan typically threw 12% of his passes for 20+ yards. Vs. the Cardinals, his longest completion to a WR/TE was 1 pass to ******* for 21 yards. In total, he completed 24 passes to WRs/TE and had 1 for barely 20+ yards. That is 4%. The vast majority of Atlanta’s passes were short outs, slants or posts to WRs just a few yards in front of the line of scrimmage. Because they did not throw the ball downfield enough w/ any type of success, Adrian Wilson could play near the line of scrimmage and focus on stuffing the run. Whether it was due to the physical pressure on Ryan from the Cardinals or his inaccuracy on downfield throws or a strategical move (give the rookie QB some comfort w/ short passes), it did not work for the Falcons.
Jake Delhomme completes 18% of his passes for 20+ yards, and in his last 4 games, that number has even increased to 23%. He is a veteran and is 5-2 in the postseason including 4-0 in the WC and Div round. He has a 100 QB rating at home this year and an 8-0 record, and there will be nothing on Saturday that the Panthers restrict him from doing on the field.
Arizona allowed the Falcons to score on 3 of 4 red zone possessions (75% efficiency).
Atlanta typically converted on 55% of their red zone possessions (#14 in the NFL) and they converted 75% of them (3 of 4) vs. the Cardinals. Carolina is #2 in the NFL, converting 65% of their red zone possessions. I will further address this in the red zone section below.
The Panthers typically don’t start off too hot at home. In fact, looking at YTD numbers, Car averages the same number of points scored in the 1st quarter as do their opponents. But the Panthers open things up in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, outscoring their opposition an average of 26-10 in the last 3 quarters of their home games.
If the Panthers are losing at the close of the first quarter, such as they were to Chi, Ari and Det, they typically step things up in the 2nd quarter or after the half:
Losing to Chi 0-7 after the 1st and 3-10 at the half, Carolina outscored them 17-7 to close the game, allowing zero 4th quarter points.
Losing to Ari 0-3 after the 1st and 3-10 at the half, Carolina outscored them 24-13 to close the game, allowing zero 4th quarter points.
Losing to Det 0-7 after the 1st, Carolina outscored them in the 2nd qtr 21-9 and 10-6 in the 2nd half, allowing just 6, 2nd half points.
Tied w/ Den 10-10 after the 1st, Carolina outscored them in the 2nd qtr 10-0 and 10-0 in the 2nd half, allowing zero 2nd half points.
It would not be the biggest surprise to me if Ari enjoyed some mild success in the first quarter. But I think Carolina will wear them down like they have to much of their opposition this season and should be able to outscore them the 2nd thru 4th quarters.
Back when these teams first played Carolina was missing their starting C and starting RT
Carolina started the season 4-1, winning their 3 home games (vs. Chi, Atl and KC) by an average score of 26-9. Then Otah went down and Kalil soon followed. The first game without both players, Carolina lost to TB 3-27 in Tampa. They followed up by destroying NO at home, in a game that was close in the 1st half (within 6 points) but Reggie Bush was injured toward the end of the the 1st half. Carolina outscored the Saints without Bush in the 2nd half 17-0. The following week, without these two O-Linemen, Carolina beat Arizona by 4 points.
As I will mention below in a separate section, Carolina immediately headed into their bye week following the narrow home win vs. Arizona and returned with both Kalil and Otah. They promptly went 5-1 before that Saturday night OT meeting with the Giants before Christmas.
Now, how did Carolina perform without Otah and Kalil in the 3 week span from Weeks 6-8? They rushed for an average of 99 yards and totaled just 2 rushing TDs.
Since they have returned to the lineup, they rushed for no less than 130 yards in any game, and their lowest 3 week span since that time was 176 yards/game. Since that time, they have rushed for an average of 2.75 rushing TDs PER GAME (vs. 0.67 per game without these Kalil and Otah in the lineup).
The improved offensive production put the defense in a better situation as well. They averaged just 1 sack per game without Kalil/Otah, but with them back in the lineup, the Panthers are recording an average of 3 sacks per game.
Also to note, the Panthers rested C Kalil at home vs. the Lions, the only home game in the 2nd half of the season that they lost ATS. Looking only at the games where both Kalil and Otah played, the Panthers went 5-0 SU at home and 4-0-1 ATS. When the spread was 7 or larger, the Panthers won SU by an avg score of 29-6, beating Atlanta, KC and Denver.
Momentum in the first meeting
I am a firm believer in motivational factors. In the first meeting, these two teams, were in completely different situations:
Arizona was a team on a total roll. They were 2-2 and not sure what they would become this season after a large beating they took in New York to the Jets. They came home, regrouped, and promptly blew out a then undefeated Buffalo Bills team, and then defeated a then 4-1 Dallas Cowboys team. Flying high (and what no one seems to be mentioning) they headed into their bye week. With two weeks to prepare for the Panthers, and two weeks to get healthy, the headed to Carolina at relatively full strength.
Carolina was 5-2 at the time, but was in a totally different spot. Carolina was reeling w/ injuries. They lost their starting C and RT, and had just been blown out by TB on the road. They returned home for a two game homestand before their bye. The first game they beat the rival Saints, but they were fortunate Bush went down before the half. They then had 1 week to prepare for the Cardinals, minus their C and RT, and could almost taste the bye week they had right after the Arizona game. Their goal was to get through 1 more game and then rest and get healthy.
Carolina started off extremely slow. Their first half avg starting field position was their own 18 (vs Ari on their own 37), they fumbled on their own 5 yard line giving Arizona their only TD of the first half, they went 0-1 in the Cardinals red zone, and Delhomme was sacked once. Carolina headed into the locker room with a 1 TD deficit, the TD they gave Arizona from the fumble on the Car 5 yard line.
The teams came out in the third quarter on fire. Arizona started first w/ a 64 yard TD drive. Carolina responded with an 80 yard TD drive. Arizona then fumbled at their 18 yard line and Carolina returned the favor with a 18 yard TD pass the next play. With the score tied, Arizona conducted a 78 yard TD drive and Carolina responded with a 73 yard TD drive, and that was just the third quarter! Carolina scored a FG in the 4th which amounted to the only points scored in the 4th and won by 3.
As you can see, the game was fairly even, and that was with Arizona having all the advantages: off a bye week, fully healthy Boldin/Fitzgerald, Carolina looking ahead to their bye, and without 2 starting O-Linemen. The trip to the East Coast was not so bad because Arizona did not play the previous Sunday.
This time around, that momentum pendulum has swung in favor of the Panthers. The Cardinals may be without one of the better WRs in the game, their opponent is off a bye instead of them and Carolina has a fully healthy O-Line. Carolina knows a loss on Saturday would be devastating, especially having worked so hard to secure the #2 seed. Arizona is looking for the win, for sure, but is also “happy to be here” after pulling off the upset at home. Much more is on the line for the Panthers than is on the line for the Cardinals, and I think that will show.
Winning the Turnover Battle
The Panthers have really stepped up focus on preventing turnovers. From Week 12 thru 17, they have only 1 fumble lost in 6 games. They also have just 3 interceptions in these 6 games, for a grand total of 4 turnovers in 6 games.
This can be compared to the Cardinals, who have a total of 13 turnovers in the same 6 games (Weeks 12-17) with only 1 week during that span of fewer than 2 turnovers. They lost a fumble in all but 1 of the 6 games, and have at least 1 interception in every single game during that span.
The most telling stat: Since Week 11, the Cardinals are 4-0 SU and ATS when winning the turnover battle. The only teams they won the turnover battle since Week 11 were to the Seahawks (twice), who are ranked 25th in the NFL in turnover margin (-7), the Rams, who are ranked 23rd in the NFL in turnover margin (-5), and vs. Atlanta last week (w/ rookie QB Ryan who were ranked 21st in the NFL in turnover margin (-3) prior to the playoffs. Compare those teams to the Panthers, who are ranked 7th in the NFL in turnover margin (+6) and who are actually +7 at home and have only lost the turnover battle at home once, to their nemesis TB. The Cardinals have not won the turnover battle vs. a team like Carolina has. So what happens when the Cardinals lose the turnover battle?
They are 0-4 SU and ATS since Week 11 when losing the turnover battle. When they have lost the turnover battle, they lost the game by an avg of 24 points. And two of these games were at home (NYG and Min) and two of these games were on the road (Phi and NE). And even worse: the Cardinals have not won the turnover battle on the road vs. a non-division opponent all season long. They are -14 in turnover margin vs. these 5 teams, and have gone 1-4 ATS in those games.
Red Zone Conversions
First, lets talk recent performance, as having Kalil and Otah back in the lineup starting in Week 9 is a major help for the Panthers. You already know from earlier they are #2 in the NFL for the entire year, but let’s look back at recent numbers:
No team in the NFL has had more success in the red zone than the Panthers since week 9 of the season. They are #1 in red zone % (76%), #1 in red zone conversions (22) and #4 at home in red zone % (80%).
Now, let’s look at defensive red zone statistics for the entire season:
The Panthers are #5 in red zone conversions allowed at home (9 in 8 games), #6 in red zone attempts allowed at home (20), and #11 in red zone % allowed at home (45%).
On the other hand, the Cardinals are #30 in red zone conversions allowed on the road (22), #28 in red zone attempts allowed on the road (31) and #30 in red zone % allowed on the road (71%).
For either team to win and especially for the Panthers to cover, they will need to convert those red zones from FGs into TDs, and there is no better opponent who has allowed these conversions than the Cardinals. And no team has been better in the NFL since Week 10 at getting into the red zone and converting than the Panthers. Couple that with the fact that the Panthers rank in the #6 in the NFL in allowing teams into their red zone and #5 at letting these teams convert those drives into TDs, and you have a solid foundation for expecting the Panthers to have a successful day.
Ability to Score, H vs. A
I think a large key to this game is studying the performance of the Cardinals away from home, both offensively and defensively. At home the Cards are #3 in scoring at just over 30 ppg, but on the road that ranking drops to #11. They put up an average of 7 more ppg than their opponents allow on avg when playing at home, but on the road, they essentially match their opponent average. The Panthers average just over 29 ppg at home, which is almost 7 ppg more than they average on the road. How does this compare to league avg? Well, both are in the top 8 in terms of how much home field helps their point production. A few of the other teams won’t surprise you much: Dallas (dome), Philly, Atlanta (dome), KC, NO (dome) and the Jets. Toss in the Panthers and the Cards and you have your top 8.
Defensively, how do thay rate? How about the Panthers are #1 and the Cards are #3 in terms of how much their home field helps their defensive points allowed:
The Panthers allow a full 13 points fewer at home than on the road. They hold their opponents to a full 9 ppg fewer than what their opponents typically score on the road. And, they are #2 overall in terms of ppg allowed at home in the NFL, second only to the Ravens. The Cardinals on the other hand? They allow 31 ppg on the road, which is just over 9 more ppg than their opponents typically score at home. And it puts them at #31 in the league at road ppg allowed on avg.
Combining both offense and defense, there could not be a stronger overall disadvantage in the NFL than the Cards having to play on the road in Carolina. The Panthers offense and defense are so drastically improved at home, and the Cardinals offense and defense are significantly disadvantaged when playing outside the friendly confines of their dome sweet dome. This is definitely a key consideration in Carolina’s ability to cover such a large spread.
Another factor regarding their first meeting was Carolina’s bye week.
Carolina is 1-3 ATS since 2005 the week before their bye week. Taking it all the way back to 1995, Carolina is 1-5 ATS when playing at HOME prior to their bye. Oddly enough, they are 5-2 ATS when that game is on the road. Teams typically have a different mentality heading into their bye week. Especially when playing at home and mentally looking ahead to those two solid weeks of “home cooking and rest” before their next game. Carolina was also in need of “getting healthy”, being without both C Kalil and RT Otah, and they knew after their bye that their patchwork O-Line would be back to full strength.
Home Sweet Home
Carolina is 8-0 this year at home, but 5 of their 8 home games came in the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, Carolina has played only 3 home games, Week 11, 14 and 15, finishing the season out with two straight road games. In their 3 home games, they won by no fewer than 9 points with an average margin of victory of 15 points/game.
Weather notes
Arizona has played 3 games with precipitation during the game and lost all 3.
Arizona has played 10 indoor games and has gone 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS but...
Arizona has played 7 outdoor games and has gone 2-5 SU (Sea/SF the wins) and 3-4 ATS (Sea/SF/Car the wins)
Car/Pit Teaser - Note: (I would lay the higher juice and get 7 points to have Car-2.5/Pit+1 but if you can only lay 6 and are stuck with Car-3.5/Pit ML that should be fine too)
You already know my reasons for liking Carolina, here is why I like Pittsburgh to win SU:
The Steelers are 19-1 SU and 18-2 ATS as home favorites between 4 and 8 points since 2003 excluding MNF.
The Steelers have never lost a divisional game after having a bye in the wild card round (5-0) SU.
The Steelers are 8-0 SU at home since 1994 in the WC or Div round if they are favored.
I have a good playoff trend which I can trace back 15 years and which SD falls into as fade team. The record is 7-0 ATS, including 4-0 ATS since 2000 if you fade SD in this situation.
When the Chargers allow more than 90 ypg rushing they are 3-7 SU and ATS this season. When they hold their opponent to less than 90 ypg rushing, they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
The only home game the Steelers lost despite having 69+ yards rushing (7 total home games) was to the NYG. Every other home game w/ at least 69 yards rushing the Steelers won.
In that Giants game, the Steelers were without starting RB Willie Parker and starting WR Santonio Holmes.
The Steelers, though by far a shadow of their prior rushing efficiency, do average 112 rushing yards at home on the season.
When the Chargers rush for less than 90 ypg they are 1-5 SU and ATS this season. When they rush for more than 90, they are 8-3 SU, w/ 2 of the 3 losses coming to solid passing teams (New Orleans and Indy).
The Steelers allowed just one non-divisional opponent to rush for more than 90 yards at home and that was the Cowboys with 95 yards, in a game that the Steelers were without starting DE Brett Keisel
When the Steelers record 3 or more sacks, they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the year.
The Steelers averaged 2.6 sacks per game at home and 3.2 per game overall on the season.
The Steelers sacked Rivers twice despite having a veteran Tomilinson to help pass protect and despite blitzing less frequently due to them playing without two top CBs (see below). This time around, both CBs are healthy and a tiny Sproles will be there to pass protect (I imagine Norv will give him help but this will take away from their route options).
In the first meeting, Pittsburgh was without starting CB Deshea Townsend and #3 CB Bryant McFadden. In Townsend’s place, CB Willie Gay started and CB Fernando Bryant played his first game of the season. In addition, the Steelers were forced to play rookie Roy Lewis in his first game of the season. Two weeks later, the Steelers cut Lewis.
Other key players missing: TE ***** Miller, who is far and away a key 3rd option, as he finished 3rd in virtually every statistical receiving category and was just 7 catches behind the #2 Holmes.
For right now, I won’t go into all the reasons for or against Pittsburgh covering the spread in this game. But I will say that I believe they do win SU. Therefore, they are a prime candidate to be paired w/ my Carolina play in a 2 team teaser.
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Plays:
Car -9.5
Car/Pit Teaser - Note: (I would lay the higher juice and get 7 points to have Car-2.5/Pit+1 but if you can only lay 6 and are stuck with Car-3.5/Pit ML that should be fine too)
Write-ups:
Car -9.5
Arizona is 2-20 SU in its last 22 trips into the Eastern time zone and is 7-15 ATS.
Teams who won as a pick or dog at home and play on the road the following week as a dog of more than 1 TD are 1-6 ATS since 1991 if the game is on Primetime.
Divisional home favorites of 9 or more points in the first two rounds of the playoffs are 12-1 SU and are 10-3 ATS since 1997, winning by an avg of 17 points. Since 1994 they are 16-5 ATS, winning by an avg of 16 points.
I have another trend playoff trend which is 20-6-1 ATS since 1995 and favors Carolina.
I always like to look at the key numbers from last week to gauge a team’s performance. Remember, I took Arizona to pull the upset:
Arizona had a +2 turnover margin, with 2 of Atlanta’s turnovers coming on their 1st possession of the game and their 1stnd half. possession of the 2
I will talk more about this in the Turnover section, but the bottom line is Arizona does not protect the ball and force turnovers on the road like they do at home.
Arizona sacked Ryan 3 times and did not allow a single Atlanta sack on Warner.
I mentioned how this would be a key to the game and it really was a large factor.
Matt Ryan threw 40 passes, completing 26, for just 199 yards (4.4 ypp avg).
During the regular season, Ryan typically threw 12% of his passes for 20+ yards. Vs. the Cardinals, his longest completion to a WR/TE was 1 pass to ******* for 21 yards. In total, he completed 24 passes to WRs/TE and had 1 for barely 20+ yards. That is 4%. The vast majority of Atlanta’s passes were short outs, slants or posts to WRs just a few yards in front of the line of scrimmage. Because they did not throw the ball downfield enough w/ any type of success, Adrian Wilson could play near the line of scrimmage and focus on stuffing the run. Whether it was due to the physical pressure on Ryan from the Cardinals or his inaccuracy on downfield throws or a strategical move (give the rookie QB some comfort w/ short passes), it did not work for the Falcons.
Jake Delhomme completes 18% of his passes for 20+ yards, and in his last 4 games, that number has even increased to 23%. He is a veteran and is 5-2 in the postseason including 4-0 in the WC and Div round. He has a 100 QB rating at home this year and an 8-0 record, and there will be nothing on Saturday that the Panthers restrict him from doing on the field.
Arizona allowed the Falcons to score on 3 of 4 red zone possessions (75% efficiency).
Atlanta typically converted on 55% of their red zone possessions (#14 in the NFL) and they converted 75% of them (3 of 4) vs. the Cardinals. Carolina is #2 in the NFL, converting 65% of their red zone possessions. I will further address this in the red zone section below.
The Panthers typically don’t start off too hot at home. In fact, looking at YTD numbers, Car averages the same number of points scored in the 1st quarter as do their opponents. But the Panthers open things up in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, outscoring their opposition an average of 26-10 in the last 3 quarters of their home games.
If the Panthers are losing at the close of the first quarter, such as they were to Chi, Ari and Det, they typically step things up in the 2nd quarter or after the half:
Losing to Chi 0-7 after the 1st and 3-10 at the half, Carolina outscored them 17-7 to close the game, allowing zero 4th quarter points.
Losing to Ari 0-3 after the 1st and 3-10 at the half, Carolina outscored them 24-13 to close the game, allowing zero 4th quarter points.
Losing to Det 0-7 after the 1st, Carolina outscored them in the 2nd qtr 21-9 and 10-6 in the 2nd half, allowing just 6, 2nd half points.
Tied w/ Den 10-10 after the 1st, Carolina outscored them in the 2nd qtr 10-0 and 10-0 in the 2nd half, allowing zero 2nd half points.
It would not be the biggest surprise to me if Ari enjoyed some mild success in the first quarter. But I think Carolina will wear them down like they have to much of their opposition this season and should be able to outscore them the 2nd thru 4th quarters.
Back when these teams first played Carolina was missing their starting C and starting RT
Carolina started the season 4-1, winning their 3 home games (vs. Chi, Atl and KC) by an average score of 26-9. Then Otah went down and Kalil soon followed. The first game without both players, Carolina lost to TB 3-27 in Tampa. They followed up by destroying NO at home, in a game that was close in the 1st half (within 6 points) but Reggie Bush was injured toward the end of the the 1st half. Carolina outscored the Saints without Bush in the 2nd half 17-0. The following week, without these two O-Linemen, Carolina beat Arizona by 4 points.
As I will mention below in a separate section, Carolina immediately headed into their bye week following the narrow home win vs. Arizona and returned with both Kalil and Otah. They promptly went 5-1 before that Saturday night OT meeting with the Giants before Christmas.
Now, how did Carolina perform without Otah and Kalil in the 3 week span from Weeks 6-8? They rushed for an average of 99 yards and totaled just 2 rushing TDs.
Since they have returned to the lineup, they rushed for no less than 130 yards in any game, and their lowest 3 week span since that time was 176 yards/game. Since that time, they have rushed for an average of 2.75 rushing TDs PER GAME (vs. 0.67 per game without these Kalil and Otah in the lineup).
The improved offensive production put the defense in a better situation as well. They averaged just 1 sack per game without Kalil/Otah, but with them back in the lineup, the Panthers are recording an average of 3 sacks per game.
Also to note, the Panthers rested C Kalil at home vs. the Lions, the only home game in the 2nd half of the season that they lost ATS. Looking only at the games where both Kalil and Otah played, the Panthers went 5-0 SU at home and 4-0-1 ATS. When the spread was 7 or larger, the Panthers won SU by an avg score of 29-6, beating Atlanta, KC and Denver.
Momentum in the first meeting
I am a firm believer in motivational factors. In the first meeting, these two teams, were in completely different situations:
Arizona was a team on a total roll. They were 2-2 and not sure what they would become this season after a large beating they took in New York to the Jets. They came home, regrouped, and promptly blew out a then undefeated Buffalo Bills team, and then defeated a then 4-1 Dallas Cowboys team. Flying high (and what no one seems to be mentioning) they headed into their bye week. With two weeks to prepare for the Panthers, and two weeks to get healthy, the headed to Carolina at relatively full strength.
Carolina was 5-2 at the time, but was in a totally different spot. Carolina was reeling w/ injuries. They lost their starting C and RT, and had just been blown out by TB on the road. They returned home for a two game homestand before their bye. The first game they beat the rival Saints, but they were fortunate Bush went down before the half. They then had 1 week to prepare for the Cardinals, minus their C and RT, and could almost taste the bye week they had right after the Arizona game. Their goal was to get through 1 more game and then rest and get healthy.
Carolina started off extremely slow. Their first half avg starting field position was their own 18 (vs Ari on their own 37), they fumbled on their own 5 yard line giving Arizona their only TD of the first half, they went 0-1 in the Cardinals red zone, and Delhomme was sacked once. Carolina headed into the locker room with a 1 TD deficit, the TD they gave Arizona from the fumble on the Car 5 yard line.
The teams came out in the third quarter on fire. Arizona started first w/ a 64 yard TD drive. Carolina responded with an 80 yard TD drive. Arizona then fumbled at their 18 yard line and Carolina returned the favor with a 18 yard TD pass the next play. With the score tied, Arizona conducted a 78 yard TD drive and Carolina responded with a 73 yard TD drive, and that was just the third quarter! Carolina scored a FG in the 4th which amounted to the only points scored in the 4th and won by 3.
As you can see, the game was fairly even, and that was with Arizona having all the advantages: off a bye week, fully healthy Boldin/Fitzgerald, Carolina looking ahead to their bye, and without 2 starting O-Linemen. The trip to the East Coast was not so bad because Arizona did not play the previous Sunday.
This time around, that momentum pendulum has swung in favor of the Panthers. The Cardinals may be without one of the better WRs in the game, their opponent is off a bye instead of them and Carolina has a fully healthy O-Line. Carolina knows a loss on Saturday would be devastating, especially having worked so hard to secure the #2 seed. Arizona is looking for the win, for sure, but is also “happy to be here” after pulling off the upset at home. Much more is on the line for the Panthers than is on the line for the Cardinals, and I think that will show.
Winning the Turnover Battle
The Panthers have really stepped up focus on preventing turnovers. From Week 12 thru 17, they have only 1 fumble lost in 6 games. They also have just 3 interceptions in these 6 games, for a grand total of 4 turnovers in 6 games.
This can be compared to the Cardinals, who have a total of 13 turnovers in the same 6 games (Weeks 12-17) with only 1 week during that span of fewer than 2 turnovers. They lost a fumble in all but 1 of the 6 games, and have at least 1 interception in every single game during that span.
The most telling stat: Since Week 11, the Cardinals are 4-0 SU and ATS when winning the turnover battle. The only teams they won the turnover battle since Week 11 were to the Seahawks (twice), who are ranked 25th in the NFL in turnover margin (-7), the Rams, who are ranked 23rd in the NFL in turnover margin (-5), and vs. Atlanta last week (w/ rookie QB Ryan who were ranked 21st in the NFL in turnover margin (-3) prior to the playoffs. Compare those teams to the Panthers, who are ranked 7th in the NFL in turnover margin (+6) and who are actually +7 at home and have only lost the turnover battle at home once, to their nemesis TB. The Cardinals have not won the turnover battle vs. a team like Carolina has. So what happens when the Cardinals lose the turnover battle?
They are 0-4 SU and ATS since Week 11 when losing the turnover battle. When they have lost the turnover battle, they lost the game by an avg of 24 points. And two of these games were at home (NYG and Min) and two of these games were on the road (Phi and NE). And even worse: the Cardinals have not won the turnover battle on the road vs. a non-division opponent all season long. They are -14 in turnover margin vs. these 5 teams, and have gone 1-4 ATS in those games.
Red Zone Conversions
First, lets talk recent performance, as having Kalil and Otah back in the lineup starting in Week 9 is a major help for the Panthers. You already know from earlier they are #2 in the NFL for the entire year, but let’s look back at recent numbers:
No team in the NFL has had more success in the red zone than the Panthers since week 9 of the season. They are #1 in red zone % (76%), #1 in red zone conversions (22) and #4 at home in red zone % (80%).
Now, let’s look at defensive red zone statistics for the entire season:
The Panthers are #5 in red zone conversions allowed at home (9 in 8 games), #6 in red zone attempts allowed at home (20), and #11 in red zone % allowed at home (45%).
On the other hand, the Cardinals are #30 in red zone conversions allowed on the road (22), #28 in red zone attempts allowed on the road (31) and #30 in red zone % allowed on the road (71%).
For either team to win and especially for the Panthers to cover, they will need to convert those red zones from FGs into TDs, and there is no better opponent who has allowed these conversions than the Cardinals. And no team has been better in the NFL since Week 10 at getting into the red zone and converting than the Panthers. Couple that with the fact that the Panthers rank in the #6 in the NFL in allowing teams into their red zone and #5 at letting these teams convert those drives into TDs, and you have a solid foundation for expecting the Panthers to have a successful day.
Ability to Score, H vs. A
I think a large key to this game is studying the performance of the Cardinals away from home, both offensively and defensively. At home the Cards are #3 in scoring at just over 30 ppg, but on the road that ranking drops to #11. They put up an average of 7 more ppg than their opponents allow on avg when playing at home, but on the road, they essentially match their opponent average. The Panthers average just over 29 ppg at home, which is almost 7 ppg more than they average on the road. How does this compare to league avg? Well, both are in the top 8 in terms of how much home field helps their point production. A few of the other teams won’t surprise you much: Dallas (dome), Philly, Atlanta (dome), KC, NO (dome) and the Jets. Toss in the Panthers and the Cards and you have your top 8.
Defensively, how do thay rate? How about the Panthers are #1 and the Cards are #3 in terms of how much their home field helps their defensive points allowed:
The Panthers allow a full 13 points fewer at home than on the road. They hold their opponents to a full 9 ppg fewer than what their opponents typically score on the road. And, they are #2 overall in terms of ppg allowed at home in the NFL, second only to the Ravens. The Cardinals on the other hand? They allow 31 ppg on the road, which is just over 9 more ppg than their opponents typically score at home. And it puts them at #31 in the league at road ppg allowed on avg.
Combining both offense and defense, there could not be a stronger overall disadvantage in the NFL than the Cards having to play on the road in Carolina. The Panthers offense and defense are so drastically improved at home, and the Cardinals offense and defense are significantly disadvantaged when playing outside the friendly confines of their dome sweet dome. This is definitely a key consideration in Carolina’s ability to cover such a large spread.
Another factor regarding their first meeting was Carolina’s bye week.
Carolina is 1-3 ATS since 2005 the week before their bye week. Taking it all the way back to 1995, Carolina is 1-5 ATS when playing at HOME prior to their bye. Oddly enough, they are 5-2 ATS when that game is on the road. Teams typically have a different mentality heading into their bye week. Especially when playing at home and mentally looking ahead to those two solid weeks of “home cooking and rest” before their next game. Carolina was also in need of “getting healthy”, being without both C Kalil and RT Otah, and they knew after their bye that their patchwork O-Line would be back to full strength.
Home Sweet Home
Carolina is 8-0 this year at home, but 5 of their 8 home games came in the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, Carolina has played only 3 home games, Week 11, 14 and 15, finishing the season out with two straight road games. In their 3 home games, they won by no fewer than 9 points with an average margin of victory of 15 points/game.
Weather notes
Arizona has played 3 games with precipitation during the game and lost all 3.
Arizona has played 10 indoor games and has gone 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS but...
Arizona has played 7 outdoor games and has gone 2-5 SU (Sea/SF the wins) and 3-4 ATS (Sea/SF/Car the wins)
Car/Pit Teaser - Note: (I would lay the higher juice and get 7 points to have Car-2.5/Pit+1 but if you can only lay 6 and are stuck with Car-3.5/Pit ML that should be fine too)
You already know my reasons for liking Carolina, here is why I like Pittsburgh to win SU:
The Steelers are 19-1 SU and 18-2 ATS as home favorites between 4 and 8 points since 2003 excluding MNF.
The Steelers have never lost a divisional game after having a bye in the wild card round (5-0) SU.
The Steelers are 8-0 SU at home since 1994 in the WC or Div round if they are favored.
I have a good playoff trend which I can trace back 15 years and which SD falls into as fade team. The record is 7-0 ATS, including 4-0 ATS since 2000 if you fade SD in this situation.
When the Chargers allow more than 90 ypg rushing they are 3-7 SU and ATS this season. When they hold their opponent to less than 90 ypg rushing, they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
The only home game the Steelers lost despite having 69+ yards rushing (7 total home games) was to the NYG. Every other home game w/ at least 69 yards rushing the Steelers won.
In that Giants game, the Steelers were without starting RB Willie Parker and starting WR Santonio Holmes.
The Steelers, though by far a shadow of their prior rushing efficiency, do average 112 rushing yards at home on the season.
When the Chargers rush for less than 90 ypg they are 1-5 SU and ATS this season. When they rush for more than 90, they are 8-3 SU, w/ 2 of the 3 losses coming to solid passing teams (New Orleans and Indy).
The Steelers allowed just one non-divisional opponent to rush for more than 90 yards at home and that was the Cowboys with 95 yards, in a game that the Steelers were without starting DE Brett Keisel
When the Steelers record 3 or more sacks, they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the year.
The Steelers averaged 2.6 sacks per game at home and 3.2 per game overall on the season.
The Steelers sacked Rivers twice despite having a veteran Tomilinson to help pass protect and despite blitzing less frequently due to them playing without two top CBs (see below). This time around, both CBs are healthy and a tiny Sproles will be there to pass protect (I imagine Norv will give him help but this will take away from their route options).
In the first meeting, Pittsburgh was without starting CB Deshea Townsend and #3 CB Bryant McFadden. In Townsend’s place, CB Willie Gay started and CB Fernando Bryant played his first game of the season. In addition, the Steelers were forced to play rookie Roy Lewis in his first game of the season. Two weeks later, the Steelers cut Lewis.
Other key players missing: TE ***** Miller, who is far and away a key 3rd option, as he finished 3rd in virtually every statistical receiving category and was just 7 catches behind the #2 Holmes.
For right now, I won’t go into all the reasons for or against Pittsburgh covering the spread in this game. But I will say that I believe they do win SU. Therefore, they are a prime candidate to be paired w/ my Carolina play in a 2 team teaser.
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Da salami sat nfl spectaculare
No dwelling on past results here, Da Salami is all about the future in 2009, and gazing at the provolone ball, I see's a two familare teams. Anybody whos read the past years posts, knows I love the inna harbor boys. Ravens take Kerry Collins back 8 yrs, when he broke the Salami's heart with that performance in the SuperBowl, Collins again will have nightmares tonight. Two tough D's make you wonder if any td's will be scored, but despite what Suggs says, I like that Flacco guy, hell he's a JerseyBoy, think he shines today and make everyone forget Smith, if they haven't already. 2 big one Ravens, 1/2 yard ML.
Ravens +3, and throw some on the moneyline, !
Tonight, Da Salami is none too happy with the 10 pts issued by the books. Slant toward Carolina, but those Cards can score even without Boldin, but they also play a fairly loose D. If this Smith isn't a JerseyBoy, I annoit him one, as that dude's is a tough as my Grandmother from Newark, trust me, she was tough, but loveable. Hence, Da Salami will pick his first ever total play and bet the over 49 pts. Let's just make this a one pinwheel sausage bet.
Panthers/Cardinals over 49
No dwelling on past results here, Da Salami is all about the future in 2009, and gazing at the provolone ball, I see's a two familare teams. Anybody whos read the past years posts, knows I love the inna harbor boys. Ravens take Kerry Collins back 8 yrs, when he broke the Salami's heart with that performance in the SuperBowl, Collins again will have nightmares tonight. Two tough D's make you wonder if any td's will be scored, but despite what Suggs says, I like that Flacco guy, hell he's a JerseyBoy, think he shines today and make everyone forget Smith, if they haven't already. 2 big one Ravens, 1/2 yard ML.
Ravens +3, and throw some on the moneyline, !
Tonight, Da Salami is none too happy with the 10 pts issued by the books. Slant toward Carolina, but those Cards can score even without Boldin, but they also play a fairly loose D. If this Smith isn't a JerseyBoy, I annoit him one, as that dude's is a tough as my Grandmother from Newark, trust me, she was tough, but loveable. Hence, Da Salami will pick his first ever total play and bet the over 49 pts. Let's just make this a one pinwheel sausage bet.
Panthers/Cardinals over 49
