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10 Carolina
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10 Carolina
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Cajun-Sports Executive- Saturday
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3/-111 Baltimore Ravens Play Title: Cajuns NFL AFC "Trophy Club" Winner 32-0-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This weekend’s NFL Playoffs games kickoff in Nashville, as the Titans host the Ravens, with the winner advancing to the AFC Championship Game.
Baltimore fans are hoping it’s deja vu. It was the 2000 postseason when the Ravens, a Wild Card upstart, went into the Music City to play the top-seeded Titans in the AFC Divisional Round. Against the run-first Titans attack led by All-Pro Eddie George, the Ravens posed their staunch defense, led by middle linebacker Ray Lewis. Baltimore was dominant that day, winning 24-10 on the way to a Super Bowl victory.
In order to get here, the Ravens had to win on the road last week, making relatively short work of the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore’s 27-9 victory last Sunday ranked as the most lopsided game of Wild Card weekend. A defense that led the NFL in takeaways and interceptions during the regular season was at it again, forcing five turnovers from a team that had committed an NFL-low-tying 13 turnovers during the entire regular season.
The Titans will be hosting their first playoff game since beating the Steelers in a 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff that went to OT. They will be looking to win a postseason contest for the first time since taking a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in the 2003 Wild Card Round.
Joe Flacco's first playoff outing was by no means the sharpest game of his rookie year for Baltimore, as he completed just 9-of-23 throws for 135 yards. But the youngster added value by rushing for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, did not turn the ball over all day, and put the team in position to score with three drives of 46 yards or more.
As usual, Baltimore also received a strong effort in the running game, where burly Le'Ron McClain and cohort Willis McGahee combined for 137 yards and a touchdown on 26 combined carries. Likely to be added to the ground mix this week is rookie scatback Ray Rice, who has been bothered by a calf problem but is expected to play.
Now Flacco will have to take his play up another notch, as he will be going up against a Titans defense that finished the regular season ranked #9 in the NFL against the pass, #6 against the run, and #5 in sacks.
The Titans have been a run-first team for much of the year, but may have to lean heavily on quarterback Kerry Collins here. The Tennessee QB will be seeking his first win as a playoff starter since 2000, when he led the Giants to the Super Bowl before falling to the Ravens. Collins did get by Baltimore in Week 5, but not before he threw a couple of interceptions before tossing the game-winning touchdown in the closing minutes. Up front, Tennessee center Kevin Mawae is not expected to play on Saturday, and Leroy Harris will start in his place.
The Ravens will be looking for another solid effort against the Titans offense. The Ravens have been outstanding against the run for most of the year, including last week's win over Miami, when they surrendered just 52 yards on 21 rush attempts on the day. Overall, the Ravens were #3 against the run and #2 against the pass during the regular season.
In addition to many similarities of the 2000 NFL Playoffs with this matchup, we have another strange twist going, as the Ravens actually have more players from that Titans team than Tennessee does. Wide receiver Derrick Mason, cornerback Samari Rolle and fullback Lorenzo Neal all currently play for the Ravens.
Kerry Collins has now faced this Ravens defense twice in his career and suffered his worst QB rating of the season both times. In the Super Bowl he threw 4 INTs, had NO TDs, and finished with a QB rating of 7. Earlier this season against Baltimore he had a season-worst QB rating in the 50s with a couple of more picks.
The Titans will have their top two defensive linemen - Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch - back for Saturday's game, but it’s been awhile since they played, to it may take them awhile to get in gear, and/or they made fade late in the game.
The big injury news though, is that Leroy Harris is starting in this game on Saturday. His only career start game came in the regular-season finale at Indianapolis, where he had only 3 exchanges with Kerry Collins. He may be a bit stronger and more physical player than Mawae, but he certainly lacks the savvy a 15-year veteran brings to the table.
This is a classic case of when we like to play AGAINST a team that suddenly loses its center. Centers play a key role that goes virtually unmentioned by the media and virtually unnoticed by everyone else. Although a center is not usually famous, his sudden loss can have a more dramatic effect on a team’s chances than the loss of any other player. Quarterbacks and their first-string centers develop a certain rapport, a rhythm, a familiarity with one another that’s vital. With a backup center, the QB has yet another thing to think and worry about. A new center can affect the play of the entire line. He’s bound to do things differently than the regular. Centers also usually make the line calls prior to the ball being snapped. With the regular gone, this will fall to the backup who will not be as familiar with the calls. Ultimately, disaster lurks on nearly every play with a backup center. He can step on the QBs foot causing a loss or fumble, missing blocking assignments leading to sacks and turnovers, causing false starts, etc. In a game like this, just 1 mistake like that could be difference.
We look for the Ravens, especially Flacco to play better here than their early-season loss to the Titans, which should prove to be the difference in the game. Baltimore is a stout 7-0 ATS as a road underdog playing with revenge for a home SU loss as a favorite or underdog of less than 3 points.
Teams that played well defensively but lost anyway in a previous meeting, have been very strong in Playoff rematches. This is confirmed by one of our NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS that states:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 14 points, allowing less than 20 points in the last matchup within the past 5 seasons (not in the last 3 regular season games) vs. an opponent not off a WildCard non-division home favorite SU & ATS win in its last game.
Since 1997, these revenge-minded teams are a strong 12-0-1 ATS, and now the Ravens qualify as a PLAY ON team.
After coming through on the road as a favorite or pick ‘em, teams have either risen up again as an underdog or suffered a letdown as a favorite. We have another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Playoff underdog off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win/vs. an opponent off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win.
It’s a small sample, but covers a 30+ season stretch of NFL Playoffs, as these dogs have gone 8-0 ATS since 1977.
Meanwhile, after suffering a division loss as a favorite or small underdog, teams have lacked confidence in their first post-season contest and been weak against opponents not off a huge spread win of more than 23 points.
Tennessee fits the bill here, as they are off a 23-0 shutout loss at Indianapolis and now qualify for an NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEM that stipulates:
Play AGAINST a team (not a home underdog of 3+ points) in its First Playoff Game off a division SU loss (not as an underdog of more than 3 points) in its last game vs. an opponent not off an ATS win of more than 23 points.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg.
One more big play on defense should be the difference in this game, as Baltimore’s raven-ous troops exploit Tennessee’s weakened line with relentless pressure. QB Collins is by no means mobile and does not excel throwing on the run, as he is a pure pocket passer. It figures to be a long day for him against this defense once again, as the Ravens get another Playoff road victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) BALTIMORE 24 TENNESSEE 17
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -10/104 Carolina Panthers Play Title: Cajuns NFL NFC "Insider" GOM 36-0-1 ATS!!!!
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After earning their first postseason victory in a decade, the Cardinals now take their show on the road for a Semi-Final clash with the Panthers.
Arizona lost seven times during the regular season, with five of those defeats coming on cross-country trips. Included in that string of futility was a 47-7 shellacking at the hands of New England on a snowy Sunday in late December. Since the 2003 season, Arizona has gone just 2-19 when playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and now they face some chilly weather on the road in an NFL Playoff Game.
The Cardinals suffered a 27-23 loss to the Panthers in late October, as Arizona blew a 14-point in the second half. QB Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns, with wide receiver Anquan Boldin hauling in both of the scoring strikes, and Arizona rolled up 425 total yards and 25 first downs on the afternoon. Boldin also hooked up with Warner for a key 71-yard touchdown that spurred the fourth-seeded Cardinals to a 30-24 home ousting of Atlanta in last weekend's Wild Card round. However, the Pro Bowl wideout strained his left hamstring on the play, and his status for Saturday's showdown will likely be in question right up until game time. Even if he can’t play, he doesn’t figure to 100% and is in danger of worsening the injury every time he runs a pass pattern.
Last week's victory was Arizona's first in a postseason game since a 20-7 decision over Dallas in a 1998 NFC Wild Card Playoff. Obtaining a second straight playoff win figures to be a tall order, since the Panthers were the only NFL team this season to record an 8-0 record at home. Five of those decisions were by 15 points or more. Additionally, we note that the Panthers have won their last FIVE meetings with Arizona.
The Cardinals amassed the second-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season, and the Panthers got a first-hand look at how dangerous the Cardinals can be through the air in the teams' Week 8 encounter.
Although the Cardinals have been overly reliant on the pass this season, the offense has been able to show greater balance in recent weeks. Running back Edgerrin James, freshened up by a lengthy benching in favor of rookie Tim Hightower, came through with a 14-carry, 100-yard effort versus Seattle in Week 17 and followed up by rushing for 73 yards on 16 touches in the Wild Card win. Arizona averaged a league-worst 73.6 rushing yards per game and a sub-par 3.5 yards per attempt in the regular season, but managed a more respectable 86 yards on the ground against Atlanta last week. This new-found “love affair” with running the ball is likely to last about as long as a Hollywood marriage.
The Cardinals had major troubles running the ball in their late-October meeting with Carolina, with James and Hightower combining for a meager 20 yards on 13 carries. To make matters worse for Arizona, the Panthers’ massive defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu and fellow interior plugger Damione Lewis are slated to return after missing some playing time the past 2 games.
Whereas the Cardinals are more proficient at beating the opposition through the air, Carolina's offensive strength is a highly-effective running game that has produced an average of 152.3 yards per game. DeAngelo Williams delivered a superb season in which the shifty third-year pro had seven 100-yard outings over the final nine games. Rookie Jonathan Stewart has been a very good backfield complement for a Panthers club that is 12-2 this year when gaining over 100 rushing yards in a game.
Arizona's defense will be hoping to repeat its success of a week ago, when the unit limited Atlanta's potent ground attack to a mere 60 yards on 24 tries, but that will tough, as the Panthers possess many more weapons for the Cards to defend than did the Falcons.
The Panthers also possess one of the NFL's most feared game-changers in wide receiver Steve Smith who burned Arizona for 117 yards and two touchdowns, including a go-ahead 65-yard score late in the third quarter, in Carolina's Week 8 victory. Quarterback Jake Delhomme completed 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards in that game and is a proven playoff performer, having thrown for 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in seven prior postseason tilts. Arizona gave up a league-worst 36 touchdown via the air and an average of 220 passing yards per game, “good” for 22nd overall in the NFL. Arizona did a solid job last Saturday against Atlanta; however, The Cardinals won’t get the benefit of facing a rookie QB in his playoff debut this week like they did against the Falcons last week.
Even special teams play should favor the hosts here. PK Kasay has been practically automatic on field goals, with the longtime Panther having converted 28-of-31 tries in the regular season and all 15 of his attempts at home. Kickoff specialist Rhys Lloyd has booted a league-best 30 touchbacks to further aid a solid coverage unit, while Mark Jones came through with a strong year as well handling returns.
Arizona has struggled in special teams coverage, having surrendered poor averages of 13.1 yards per punt return and 25 yards on kickoffs in the regular season. The team also ranked next-to-last in the NFL in net punting.
The Cardinals were able to capitalize on mistakes by a young Atlanta team a week ago, but likely won't get those opportunities from the Panthers, who are playoff-tested and haven't lost on their home grounds all year long. Arizona is set up to return to earth with a thud here, as they are 0-6 SU (-20.7 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-16.2 ppg) as a road underdog and not off a BYE. They are also 0-12 ATS (-12.8 ppg) with a TOTAL over 34 points and not an underdog of more than 10 points vs. opponents off a BYE week, while Carolina is 3-0 ATS off a bye since 2003, including a Super Bowl ATS win.
The Cards did allow 24 points last week, which is quite a few, especially for a home game, and teams that struggled defensively in a Playoff victory have become the victim in their next outing under the conditions outlined by an NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEM of ours that reads:
Play AGAINST a non-division Playoff underdog of 13 points or less/pick 'em off a Playoff SU win allowing 22+ points in its last game and not seeking same-season revenge for a SU loss allowing less than 26 points in the last matchup.
Since 1996, these teams are 0-10 SU (-15.7 ppg) & 9-0-1 ATS (-11.2 ppg).
Teams like the Panthers, that ended the regular season with a couple of spread losses, have been phenomenal in their first playoff game under the conditions described by a final POWER SYSTEM:
Play ON a team in its First Playoff Game off a regular season ATS loss in its last game (not a division SU loss), an ATS loss before that and not playing its 3rd straight non-Monday home game vs. an opponent not off a regular season non-conference SU win or a WildCard SU & ATS win as a home favorite of 9+ points/road favorite in its last game.
In one of our strongest Playoff POWER SYSTEM, these teams have gone an amazing 27-0 ATS since 1984, crushing the spread by nearly 16 points per game on average.
While some are expecting another close game between these teams, fans forget (or weren’t aware) that the Panthers were without two starting linemen - right tackle Jeff Otah and center Ryan Kalil — in the last meeting with the Cardinals and still scored 27 points. Obviously with both players back, the Panthers hope to improve on that number this week and extend their streak of scoring 28 points or more to eight games. Against the leaky Arizona defense it shouldn’t be a problem.
Instead of Carolina getting behind by 2 TDs and scrambling to get back into the game, it should be quite a different story here, as the Panthers should be very sharp from the opening kickoff and grab the lead this time. Ultimately, Arizona will have to abandon the run game allowing Julius Peppers & Company to make life miserable for Warner and the Cardinals.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) CAROLINA 35 ARIZONA 14
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Arkansas Play Title: Cajuns CBB SEC "Insider" GOW 18-1-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Bud Walton Arena will be the site of tonight’s SEC clash between the host Arkansas Razorbacks and the visiting Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs enter tonight’s game with a record of 10-5 SU and 4-5 ATS. Arkansas is 12-1 SU and a money-making 5-2 ATS on the year.
The Bulldogs are 2-3 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road so far this season averaging 67.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.5 points per game. On the defensive end of the floor they are allowing opponents to score 70.8 points per game with teams that would normally only score 68.9 points per game.
Their leading scorer is forward Jarvis Varnado who is averaging 12.8 points per game and pulling down 9.9 rebounds. The Bulldogs floor general is guard Dee Bost who scores 9.1 points per game but has struggled with turnovers with 3.3 per contest.
The Razorbacks have taken down the Oklahoma Sooners 96 to 88 as a 5 point home underdog and in their last game they defeated Texas 67 to 61 as a 4.5 point home dog. They did not suffer any type of letdown after their defeat of Oklahoma and Texas came into their meeting with Arkansas knowing what had happened to the Sooners six days earlier and could do nothing to stop this Arkansas team.
The Hogs are 10-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at Bud Walton this season and they are 5-0 SU and 3-0 ATS over their last five games. The Hogs are averaging 83.7 points per game versus teams that allow 71.0 points per game. They have accomplished this shooting better than 46% from the field. Defensively the Hogs are allowing 67.4 points per game against teams that would normally score 70.2 points per game. They have held their opponents to 40% shooting from the field.
The Hogs are led by forward Michael Washington who is averaging 17.8 points per game and grabbing 10.3 boards per contest. Their second leading scorer is freshman guard Courtney Fortson who is averaging 15.1 points per game and has really surprised SEC scouts with his maturity and ability to step right in this role and produce at such a high level. Another huge plus for this Hogs team is their bench as head coach John Pelphrey has 10 players that average double-digit minutes per contest.
On the technical front we see that the Hogs are 6-0-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win in their last two games if the line range for their current game is 3 to 7 points. If this is a conference game the record is 5-0-1 ATS. The Bulldogs after going “Over” in their last game and are now playing on the road with a line range of 3 to 7 points they are 1-7 ATS. We have a couple CBB Systems that are active for this game as well. CBB teams at home for their last five games and are now a division home favorite of 3 to 7 points have posted a record of 5-0-1 ATS. CBB teams that have played their last four games at home and are now installed as a conference favorite of 3 to 7 points are 92-58-2 ATS. If they are a home favorite that record is 46-27-2 ATS.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will back the Hogs here as they get another win and cover at Bud Walton on Saturday night. Lay the chalk with the Hogs as our CBB SEC Game of the Week.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) Arkansas 81 Mississippi State 69
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Rhode Island vs. St Joseph's (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-106 Rhode Island Play Title: Cajuns CBB "Power Dog" GOW 34-9 ATS!!!!
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This game was intended to be a home game for the Hawks but they have to play their home games at the Palestra on Penn’s campus and this has not proven to be any type of advantage for the Hawks. The Rams are 11-4 SU and 6-3 ATS this season while the Hawks check in with a record of 6-7 SU and 4-6 ATS.
The Rams have played some tough opponents on the road including Duke where they were 25.5 point underdogs and lost 82 to 79. They were on the road at Penn State and won 77 to 72 as a 1 point road favorite. They also played at Providence (L66 to 65) and Oklahoma State (L86 to 82) at a neutral site but held their own against superior competition.
The Rams should have no problems controlling the pace of this game as they play at a much faster tempo than do the Hawks. They are averaging 79.9 points per game against teams that allow only 66.9 points per game and they do this on 51.1% shooting from the field. They are holding opponents to 72.4 points per game and 30.6% from behind the arc.
The Hawks average 65.5 points per game and they are allowing their opponents to score 66.4 points per game. They are doing this by shooting 46% from the field and 30.9% from behind the arc. Hawks opponents are averaging more than 41% from three-point range.
The Rams are 15-4 ATS after going “over” in their last game and now play on the road. If they are installed as a road underdog they are 12-2 ATS. The Rams are 32-14 ATS as a division underdog and 22-7 ATS if they are a road division underdog.
Data base research has uncovered a CBB system that is active for today’s contest. Play AGAINST CBB home teams with a team that allows 40-42.5% shooting from the field against a team that allows 45-47.5% shooting from the field and a team that averages <=14.5 turnovers per game against a team that forces <=14.5 turnovers per game, 63-29 ATS the last five seasons.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the visitor here as the Rams get the straight up win over the Hawks on Saturday.
Projected Final Score: (3*) Rhode Island 78 Saint Josephs 70
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3/-111 Baltimore Ravens Play Title: Cajuns NFL AFC "Trophy Club" Winner 32-0-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This weekend’s NFL Playoffs games kickoff in Nashville, as the Titans host the Ravens, with the winner advancing to the AFC Championship Game.
Baltimore fans are hoping it’s deja vu. It was the 2000 postseason when the Ravens, a Wild Card upstart, went into the Music City to play the top-seeded Titans in the AFC Divisional Round. Against the run-first Titans attack led by All-Pro Eddie George, the Ravens posed their staunch defense, led by middle linebacker Ray Lewis. Baltimore was dominant that day, winning 24-10 on the way to a Super Bowl victory.
In order to get here, the Ravens had to win on the road last week, making relatively short work of the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore’s 27-9 victory last Sunday ranked as the most lopsided game of Wild Card weekend. A defense that led the NFL in takeaways and interceptions during the regular season was at it again, forcing five turnovers from a team that had committed an NFL-low-tying 13 turnovers during the entire regular season.
The Titans will be hosting their first playoff game since beating the Steelers in a 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff that went to OT. They will be looking to win a postseason contest for the first time since taking a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in the 2003 Wild Card Round.
Joe Flacco's first playoff outing was by no means the sharpest game of his rookie year for Baltimore, as he completed just 9-of-23 throws for 135 yards. But the youngster added value by rushing for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, did not turn the ball over all day, and put the team in position to score with three drives of 46 yards or more.
As usual, Baltimore also received a strong effort in the running game, where burly Le'Ron McClain and cohort Willis McGahee combined for 137 yards and a touchdown on 26 combined carries. Likely to be added to the ground mix this week is rookie scatback Ray Rice, who has been bothered by a calf problem but is expected to play.
Now Flacco will have to take his play up another notch, as he will be going up against a Titans defense that finished the regular season ranked #9 in the NFL against the pass, #6 against the run, and #5 in sacks.
The Titans have been a run-first team for much of the year, but may have to lean heavily on quarterback Kerry Collins here. The Tennessee QB will be seeking his first win as a playoff starter since 2000, when he led the Giants to the Super Bowl before falling to the Ravens. Collins did get by Baltimore in Week 5, but not before he threw a couple of interceptions before tossing the game-winning touchdown in the closing minutes. Up front, Tennessee center Kevin Mawae is not expected to play on Saturday, and Leroy Harris will start in his place.
The Ravens will be looking for another solid effort against the Titans offense. The Ravens have been outstanding against the run for most of the year, including last week's win over Miami, when they surrendered just 52 yards on 21 rush attempts on the day. Overall, the Ravens were #3 against the run and #2 against the pass during the regular season.
In addition to many similarities of the 2000 NFL Playoffs with this matchup, we have another strange twist going, as the Ravens actually have more players from that Titans team than Tennessee does. Wide receiver Derrick Mason, cornerback Samari Rolle and fullback Lorenzo Neal all currently play for the Ravens.
Kerry Collins has now faced this Ravens defense twice in his career and suffered his worst QB rating of the season both times. In the Super Bowl he threw 4 INTs, had NO TDs, and finished with a QB rating of 7. Earlier this season against Baltimore he had a season-worst QB rating in the 50s with a couple of more picks.
The Titans will have their top two defensive linemen - Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch - back for Saturday's game, but it’s been awhile since they played, to it may take them awhile to get in gear, and/or they made fade late in the game.
The big injury news though, is that Leroy Harris is starting in this game on Saturday. His only career start game came in the regular-season finale at Indianapolis, where he had only 3 exchanges with Kerry Collins. He may be a bit stronger and more physical player than Mawae, but he certainly lacks the savvy a 15-year veteran brings to the table.
This is a classic case of when we like to play AGAINST a team that suddenly loses its center. Centers play a key role that goes virtually unmentioned by the media and virtually unnoticed by everyone else. Although a center is not usually famous, his sudden loss can have a more dramatic effect on a team’s chances than the loss of any other player. Quarterbacks and their first-string centers develop a certain rapport, a rhythm, a familiarity with one another that’s vital. With a backup center, the QB has yet another thing to think and worry about. A new center can affect the play of the entire line. He’s bound to do things differently than the regular. Centers also usually make the line calls prior to the ball being snapped. With the regular gone, this will fall to the backup who will not be as familiar with the calls. Ultimately, disaster lurks on nearly every play with a backup center. He can step on the QBs foot causing a loss or fumble, missing blocking assignments leading to sacks and turnovers, causing false starts, etc. In a game like this, just 1 mistake like that could be difference.
We look for the Ravens, especially Flacco to play better here than their early-season loss to the Titans, which should prove to be the difference in the game. Baltimore is a stout 7-0 ATS as a road underdog playing with revenge for a home SU loss as a favorite or underdog of less than 3 points.
Teams that played well defensively but lost anyway in a previous meeting, have been very strong in Playoff rematches. This is confirmed by one of our NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS that states:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking revenge for a SU loss of less than 14 points, allowing less than 20 points in the last matchup within the past 5 seasons (not in the last 3 regular season games) vs. an opponent not off a WildCard non-division home favorite SU & ATS win in its last game.
Since 1997, these revenge-minded teams are a strong 12-0-1 ATS, and now the Ravens qualify as a PLAY ON team.
After coming through on the road as a favorite or pick ‘em, teams have either risen up again as an underdog or suffered a letdown as a favorite. We have another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Playoff underdog off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win/vs. an opponent off a non-shutout Playoff road favorite/pick 'em SU win.
It’s a small sample, but covers a 30+ season stretch of NFL Playoffs, as these dogs have gone 8-0 ATS since 1977.
Meanwhile, after suffering a division loss as a favorite or small underdog, teams have lacked confidence in their first post-season contest and been weak against opponents not off a huge spread win of more than 23 points.
Tennessee fits the bill here, as they are off a 23-0 shutout loss at Indianapolis and now qualify for an NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEM that stipulates:
Play AGAINST a team (not a home underdog of 3+ points) in its First Playoff Game off a division SU loss (not as an underdog of more than 3 points) in its last game vs. an opponent not off an ATS win of more than 23 points.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg.
One more big play on defense should be the difference in this game, as Baltimore’s raven-ous troops exploit Tennessee’s weakened line with relentless pressure. QB Collins is by no means mobile and does not excel throwing on the run, as he is a pure pocket passer. It figures to be a long day for him against this defense once again, as the Ravens get another Playoff road victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) BALTIMORE 24 TENNESSEE 17
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -10/104 Carolina Panthers Play Title: Cajuns NFL NFC "Insider" GOM 36-0-1 ATS!!!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
After earning their first postseason victory in a decade, the Cardinals now take their show on the road for a Semi-Final clash with the Panthers.
Arizona lost seven times during the regular season, with five of those defeats coming on cross-country trips. Included in that string of futility was a 47-7 shellacking at the hands of New England on a snowy Sunday in late December. Since the 2003 season, Arizona has gone just 2-19 when playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and now they face some chilly weather on the road in an NFL Playoff Game.
The Cardinals suffered a 27-23 loss to the Panthers in late October, as Arizona blew a 14-point in the second half. QB Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns, with wide receiver Anquan Boldin hauling in both of the scoring strikes, and Arizona rolled up 425 total yards and 25 first downs on the afternoon. Boldin also hooked up with Warner for a key 71-yard touchdown that spurred the fourth-seeded Cardinals to a 30-24 home ousting of Atlanta in last weekend's Wild Card round. However, the Pro Bowl wideout strained his left hamstring on the play, and his status for Saturday's showdown will likely be in question right up until game time. Even if he can’t play, he doesn’t figure to 100% and is in danger of worsening the injury every time he runs a pass pattern.
Last week's victory was Arizona's first in a postseason game since a 20-7 decision over Dallas in a 1998 NFC Wild Card Playoff. Obtaining a second straight playoff win figures to be a tall order, since the Panthers were the only NFL team this season to record an 8-0 record at home. Five of those decisions were by 15 points or more. Additionally, we note that the Panthers have won their last FIVE meetings with Arizona.
The Cardinals amassed the second-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season, and the Panthers got a first-hand look at how dangerous the Cardinals can be through the air in the teams' Week 8 encounter.
Although the Cardinals have been overly reliant on the pass this season, the offense has been able to show greater balance in recent weeks. Running back Edgerrin James, freshened up by a lengthy benching in favor of rookie Tim Hightower, came through with a 14-carry, 100-yard effort versus Seattle in Week 17 and followed up by rushing for 73 yards on 16 touches in the Wild Card win. Arizona averaged a league-worst 73.6 rushing yards per game and a sub-par 3.5 yards per attempt in the regular season, but managed a more respectable 86 yards on the ground against Atlanta last week. This new-found “love affair” with running the ball is likely to last about as long as a Hollywood marriage.
The Cardinals had major troubles running the ball in their late-October meeting with Carolina, with James and Hightower combining for a meager 20 yards on 13 carries. To make matters worse for Arizona, the Panthers’ massive defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu and fellow interior plugger Damione Lewis are slated to return after missing some playing time the past 2 games.
Whereas the Cardinals are more proficient at beating the opposition through the air, Carolina's offensive strength is a highly-effective running game that has produced an average of 152.3 yards per game. DeAngelo Williams delivered a superb season in which the shifty third-year pro had seven 100-yard outings over the final nine games. Rookie Jonathan Stewart has been a very good backfield complement for a Panthers club that is 12-2 this year when gaining over 100 rushing yards in a game.
Arizona's defense will be hoping to repeat its success of a week ago, when the unit limited Atlanta's potent ground attack to a mere 60 yards on 24 tries, but that will tough, as the Panthers possess many more weapons for the Cards to defend than did the Falcons.
The Panthers also possess one of the NFL's most feared game-changers in wide receiver Steve Smith who burned Arizona for 117 yards and two touchdowns, including a go-ahead 65-yard score late in the third quarter, in Carolina's Week 8 victory. Quarterback Jake Delhomme completed 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards in that game and is a proven playoff performer, having thrown for 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions in seven prior postseason tilts. Arizona gave up a league-worst 36 touchdown via the air and an average of 220 passing yards per game, “good” for 22nd overall in the NFL. Arizona did a solid job last Saturday against Atlanta; however, The Cardinals won’t get the benefit of facing a rookie QB in his playoff debut this week like they did against the Falcons last week.
Even special teams play should favor the hosts here. PK Kasay has been practically automatic on field goals, with the longtime Panther having converted 28-of-31 tries in the regular season and all 15 of his attempts at home. Kickoff specialist Rhys Lloyd has booted a league-best 30 touchbacks to further aid a solid coverage unit, while Mark Jones came through with a strong year as well handling returns.
Arizona has struggled in special teams coverage, having surrendered poor averages of 13.1 yards per punt return and 25 yards on kickoffs in the regular season. The team also ranked next-to-last in the NFL in net punting.
The Cardinals were able to capitalize on mistakes by a young Atlanta team a week ago, but likely won't get those opportunities from the Panthers, who are playoff-tested and haven't lost on their home grounds all year long. Arizona is set up to return to earth with a thud here, as they are 0-6 SU (-20.7 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-16.2 ppg) as a road underdog and not off a BYE. They are also 0-12 ATS (-12.8 ppg) with a TOTAL over 34 points and not an underdog of more than 10 points vs. opponents off a BYE week, while Carolina is 3-0 ATS off a bye since 2003, including a Super Bowl ATS win.
The Cards did allow 24 points last week, which is quite a few, especially for a home game, and teams that struggled defensively in a Playoff victory have become the victim in their next outing under the conditions outlined by an NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEM of ours that reads:
Play AGAINST a non-division Playoff underdog of 13 points or less/pick 'em off a Playoff SU win allowing 22+ points in its last game and not seeking same-season revenge for a SU loss allowing less than 26 points in the last matchup.
Since 1996, these teams are 0-10 SU (-15.7 ppg) & 9-0-1 ATS (-11.2 ppg).
Teams like the Panthers, that ended the regular season with a couple of spread losses, have been phenomenal in their first playoff game under the conditions described by a final POWER SYSTEM:
Play ON a team in its First Playoff Game off a regular season ATS loss in its last game (not a division SU loss), an ATS loss before that and not playing its 3rd straight non-Monday home game vs. an opponent not off a regular season non-conference SU win or a WildCard SU & ATS win as a home favorite of 9+ points/road favorite in its last game.
In one of our strongest Playoff POWER SYSTEM, these teams have gone an amazing 27-0 ATS since 1984, crushing the spread by nearly 16 points per game on average.
While some are expecting another close game between these teams, fans forget (or weren’t aware) that the Panthers were without two starting linemen - right tackle Jeff Otah and center Ryan Kalil — in the last meeting with the Cardinals and still scored 27 points. Obviously with both players back, the Panthers hope to improve on that number this week and extend their streak of scoring 28 points or more to eight games. Against the leaky Arizona defense it shouldn’t be a problem.
Instead of Carolina getting behind by 2 TDs and scrambling to get back into the game, it should be quite a different story here, as the Panthers should be very sharp from the opening kickoff and grab the lead this time. Ultimately, Arizona will have to abandon the run game allowing Julius Peppers & Company to make life miserable for Warner and the Cardinals.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) CAROLINA 35 ARIZONA 14
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Arkansas Play Title: Cajuns CBB SEC "Insider" GOW 18-1-1 ATS!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Bud Walton Arena will be the site of tonight’s SEC clash between the host Arkansas Razorbacks and the visiting Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs enter tonight’s game with a record of 10-5 SU and 4-5 ATS. Arkansas is 12-1 SU and a money-making 5-2 ATS on the year.
The Bulldogs are 2-3 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road so far this season averaging 67.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.5 points per game. On the defensive end of the floor they are allowing opponents to score 70.8 points per game with teams that would normally only score 68.9 points per game.
Their leading scorer is forward Jarvis Varnado who is averaging 12.8 points per game and pulling down 9.9 rebounds. The Bulldogs floor general is guard Dee Bost who scores 9.1 points per game but has struggled with turnovers with 3.3 per contest.
The Razorbacks have taken down the Oklahoma Sooners 96 to 88 as a 5 point home underdog and in their last game they defeated Texas 67 to 61 as a 4.5 point home dog. They did not suffer any type of letdown after their defeat of Oklahoma and Texas came into their meeting with Arkansas knowing what had happened to the Sooners six days earlier and could do nothing to stop this Arkansas team.
The Hogs are 10-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at Bud Walton this season and they are 5-0 SU and 3-0 ATS over their last five games. The Hogs are averaging 83.7 points per game versus teams that allow 71.0 points per game. They have accomplished this shooting better than 46% from the field. Defensively the Hogs are allowing 67.4 points per game against teams that would normally score 70.2 points per game. They have held their opponents to 40% shooting from the field.
The Hogs are led by forward Michael Washington who is averaging 17.8 points per game and grabbing 10.3 boards per contest. Their second leading scorer is freshman guard Courtney Fortson who is averaging 15.1 points per game and has really surprised SEC scouts with his maturity and ability to step right in this role and produce at such a high level. Another huge plus for this Hogs team is their bench as head coach John Pelphrey has 10 players that average double-digit minutes per contest.
On the technical front we see that the Hogs are 6-0-1 ATS off a SU and ATS win in their last two games if the line range for their current game is 3 to 7 points. If this is a conference game the record is 5-0-1 ATS. The Bulldogs after going “Over” in their last game and are now playing on the road with a line range of 3 to 7 points they are 1-7 ATS. We have a couple CBB Systems that are active for this game as well. CBB teams at home for their last five games and are now a division home favorite of 3 to 7 points have posted a record of 5-0-1 ATS. CBB teams that have played their last four games at home and are now installed as a conference favorite of 3 to 7 points are 92-58-2 ATS. If they are a home favorite that record is 46-27-2 ATS.
With solid fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will back the Hogs here as they get another win and cover at Bud Walton on Saturday night. Lay the chalk with the Hogs as our CBB SEC Game of the Week.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (5*) Arkansas 81 Mississippi State 69
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Rhode Island vs. St Joseph's (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-106 Rhode Island Play Title: Cajuns CBB "Power Dog" GOW 34-9 ATS!!!!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This game was intended to be a home game for the Hawks but they have to play their home games at the Palestra on Penn’s campus and this has not proven to be any type of advantage for the Hawks. The Rams are 11-4 SU and 6-3 ATS this season while the Hawks check in with a record of 6-7 SU and 4-6 ATS.
The Rams have played some tough opponents on the road including Duke where they were 25.5 point underdogs and lost 82 to 79. They were on the road at Penn State and won 77 to 72 as a 1 point road favorite. They also played at Providence (L66 to 65) and Oklahoma State (L86 to 82) at a neutral site but held their own against superior competition.
The Rams should have no problems controlling the pace of this game as they play at a much faster tempo than do the Hawks. They are averaging 79.9 points per game against teams that allow only 66.9 points per game and they do this on 51.1% shooting from the field. They are holding opponents to 72.4 points per game and 30.6% from behind the arc.
The Hawks average 65.5 points per game and they are allowing their opponents to score 66.4 points per game. They are doing this by shooting 46% from the field and 30.9% from behind the arc. Hawks opponents are averaging more than 41% from three-point range.
The Rams are 15-4 ATS after going “over” in their last game and now play on the road. If they are installed as a road underdog they are 12-2 ATS. The Rams are 32-14 ATS as a division underdog and 22-7 ATS if they are a road division underdog.
Data base research has uncovered a CBB system that is active for today’s contest. Play AGAINST CBB home teams with a team that allows 40-42.5% shooting from the field against a team that allows 45-47.5% shooting from the field and a team that averages <=14.5 turnovers per game against a team that forces <=14.5 turnovers per game, 63-29 ATS the last five seasons.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the visitor here as the Rams get the straight up win over the Hawks on Saturday.
Projected Final Score: (3*) Rhode Island 78 Saint Josephs 70
indiancowboy
Step Out Release: 5 Unit Play (28-6 Lifetime). #304. Take Carolina Panthers -10 over Arizona Cardinals (Saturday, January 10th @ 8:15pm est.). As an individual who leans on the Dogs, I am playing a heavy favorite this weekend in the NFL Playoffs. Why? Well, is it that impossible to believe that the Carolina Panthers aren't capable of blowing this team out? After all, these are the same Panthers that defeated the Denver Broncos by 20 points at home through a score of 30-10. These are the same Panthers that also defeated the Tampa Bay Bucs by 15 by a score of 38-23. These are also the same Panthers that defeated the New Orleans Saints at home by 23, by a final score of 30-7. This is important considering that New Orleans's offense is very similar to that of the Arizona Cardinals, except that New Orleans is even better. The Carolina Panthers thrive against teams that live on the passing attack. Remember, considering that NO actually has a running attack, the Arizona Cardinals don't even have that as they are 28th in the league in rushing yards. They will live and die on the pass and Carolina will simply drop back and have a field day with these receivers. You don't think the Panthers learned a ton by watching the Falcons play this Cardinals team? The last time these two teams met, the final score was determined by 4 points. But, Carolina is a team that makes adjustments extremely well as Foxx is one of the best coaches in the league of doing so. The Cardinals are the same team that went on the road to lose by scores of 7-47 against New England and 20-48 against Philadelphia. When the Arizona Cardinals play tough defenses such as the New England Patriots or Philadelphia Eagles, they simply are not effective. The Panthers sport a top 10 defense and top 5 in points allowed on top of that. Combine that with the fact the Panthers have a rushing attack and a passing attack while the Cardinals only have a one element offense, this could end up being a burial. Tack on the fact the Cardinals defense is highly impotent when they face a two dimensional team and have to head on the highway to play this game, this could very well be similar to when the Panthers hosted the Saints and beat them 30-7. Let me be frank, any team in the NFC South currently could defeat the Cardinals at home by this margin. I firmly believe that. So, why would the Carolina Panthers not be able to do so by a margin of 15-20 points considering they have done it already at home against the likes of the Saints, Falcons, Broncos and Bucs? We have the more efficient offense, the better rushing team, the better defense, the better special teams, the home field advantage and the Panthers are simply versatile in so many ways as they are itching to play the Cardinals at home. I have this game at a 33-10 typ of final. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 contests as road underdogs. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
Kanesline
(POD)
01/10/09
NFL
FOX Channel
Arizona Cardinals at
Carolina Panthers
Projected Spread: Carolina Panthers by 11
Projected Total: 49
Projected Score:
Arizona Cardinals 19
Carolina Panthers 30
Pick: Take 3 point buy OVER 45.50
System Pick: Take OVER 48.50
System Pick: Take Carolina Panthers -10
Trends to Watch:
The Carolina Panthers are 7-0 OVER vs NFC. Also,
the Arizona Cardinals are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games, when
accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their last game.
System Picks
01/10/09 Baltimore Ravens +3
01/10/09 Carolina Panthers -10
01/10/09 NFL Totals
01/10/09 Baltimore Ravens/Tennessee Titans
OVER 34
01/10/09 Arizona Cardinals/Carolina Panthers
OVER 48.50
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(POD)
01/10/09
NFL
FOX Channel
Arizona Cardinals at
Carolina Panthers
Projected Spread: Carolina Panthers by 11
Projected Total: 49
Projected Score:
Arizona Cardinals 19
Carolina Panthers 30
Pick: Take 3 point buy OVER 45.50
System Pick: Take OVER 48.50
System Pick: Take Carolina Panthers -10
Trends to Watch:
The Carolina Panthers are 7-0 OVER vs NFC. Also,
the Arizona Cardinals are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games, when
accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their last game.
System Picks
01/10/09 Baltimore Ravens +3
01/10/09 Carolina Panthers -10
01/10/09 NFL Totals
01/10/09 Baltimore Ravens/Tennessee Titans
OVER 34
01/10/09 Arizona Cardinals/Carolina Panthers
OVER 48.50
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INDIAN COWBOY
5 Unit Play. January College Basketball GOM. #558. Take Illinois -18.5 over Indiana (Saturday @ 3pm est). I'm not the one to lay points in a ballgame considering I'm a regular dog player. After all, our last GOM for College Basketball was Cleveland State +13 over Syracuse as Cleveland State won Outright at 'Cuse. Well, today, we are taking the heavy favorite. Sometimes you have several factors that come together all at once and such is the case here. After all, not only is Illinois coming home after a tough loss to Michigan on the road, but they lost to Indiana in overtime in their very gym last year as well as losing to Indiana on the road. This is one of the biggest rivalries in college basketball as these two teams hate each other. Indiana is a team of walk-ons and non-scholarship players that are coming together and playing better. But, that changes today when they face an Illinois team that is not only coming off a conference loss at Michigan, but they return home to play a team that swept them last year and these returning letterman know what it felt like when Eric Gordon and company defeated them in their own gymnasium in overtime. I have Illinois winning this game by 20 or more here. Remember, with the young man Legion who transferred from Kentucky, this Illinois team is deeper and stronger. After all, with his entrance, the Illini went on a 7-0 ATS run before that run being snapped by Michigan. The last time the Illini had such a big spread was against Detroit when they won by 31, against Chicago State when they won by 39 or against UGA when they won by 34. Why can't Illinois win by that same margin against a similarly ranked Indiana team, in an arch rivalry, coming home after a tough conference loss and having double-revenge from last year. This should be a burial from the get-go as there is a reason why this spread is so high as we are backing the team that went on the road to defeat Purdue in overtime, the same team that has won by margins of 30 or more against similarly ranked teams and will be fired up to win this Midwest rivalry. The Illini have won their last 6 Saturday games, the alumni and boosters will be there n full circle for this burial. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and Illinois is 9-4 ATS following a straight up loss.
4Unit Play. #504. Take Minnesota -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks (Saturday @ 8pm est). Note, I was very close to either ride OKC first half or OKC for the game, but decided to go with the Timberwolves at home to get it done for us with our POD selection. We have won 11 of 16 days in the NBA for a 11-5 run with the PODs and we will look to keep that streak going here. Look, with Kevin McHale leading this team, the Twolves are playing great right now. Frankly, I would not want to play this team at this point. Slowly, the Twolves have built confidence and have rejuvenated their productivity. The Bucks defeated the Nets at home but will have Bogut unlikely for this game. Now, that didn't affect them in winning SU against the Nets at home but it will affect them when they are on the road at Minnesota and offense will be at a premium. These Timberwolves not only play great defense but are shooting lights out. Milwaukee is the same team that lot 92-102 to Charlotte on the road and although the Bucks have their moments, the Twolves have covered their last 6 straight and 8 of their last 9. This includes a 42 point win over OKC at home, winning Outright at Memphis by 7, defeating the Bulls on the road by 10 Outright, defeating GS at home by 7 and defeating Memphis at home in overtime as well as the Knicks on the road Outright. Folks, the Twolves are good. Look, this team has won 4 in a row and considering before they had won 6 games all year, this is incredibly significant. I don't care that the Bucks are doing well ATS this year as this is a bad spot for them as they hit the road not complete healthy and the Twolves from start to finish will play strong as they have done the last 8 of 9 games they have covered and unless the Bucks plan on shooting lights out, they can get blown out of the building as the Twolves will be fired up to play with the likes of Smith, Gomes, Telfair, Jefferson and Foye.
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payed for
Saturday, January 10, 2009 <table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td colspan="2" align="left">Handicapper: John Ryan</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td width="85%" align="left">Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST</td> <td> Premium Play</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td align="left"> Pick: Total: 34/-103 Over Play Title: OVER</td> <td align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td colspan="8"> [SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
Ai Simulator 7* graded play OVER Baltimore/Tennessee – AIS shows an 83% probability that more than 34 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play over home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and off a road loss against a division rival. Here is a second system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% since 1997. Play over with home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and are off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. Here isa third system hitting 81% ATS for a 30-7 mark. Play over with road teams where the total is 35 or less after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game facing an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. Tennessee is also 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Baltimore is a solid 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore comes into this game the hotter of the two teams having won 6 of their last 7 games. Tennessee has gone just 4-3 over their last 7 games and two of those wins were against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day and Cleveland. In only two of the last 7 games has Baltimore not scored 27 or more points. Baltimore has the personnel to effectively run a balanced offensive attack against Tennessee. They can use the power running game and play action pass to keep Tennessee defense off stride. I would not be surprised at all to see Baltimore throw on first downs far more than what has been their norm. In the first meeting Baltimore made Collins beat them and he did with a late 4th quarter drive. Yet, they know this is not the type of offense geared toward heroic 4th quarter winning drives and they must put forth a relatively unpredictable offense. Essentially run when Baltimore thinks pass and vice versa. Collins was sacked just 8 times in 15 starts this season and there is reason to believe Baltimore will not blitz choosing to stack their already strong secondary. This will provide easy underneath pass completions for Collins. There will be turnovers too in this game based on the AiS. With that said, if these turnovers occur deep in the offense’s end of the field the over will be a win by the end of the third quarter. Based on the AiS this OVER play shapes to be a potential bar burner type of game. Take the OVER.
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Saturday, January 10, 2009 <table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td colspan="2" align="left">Handicapper: John Ryan</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td width="85%" align="left">Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST</td> <td> Premium Play</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td align="left"> Pick: Total: 34/-103 Over Play Title: OVER</td> <td align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr valign="middle" bgcolor="#eaeded"> <td colspan="8"> [SIZE=-2]Click Here to View Pick Analysis[/SIZE]
Ai Simulator 7* graded play OVER Baltimore/Tennessee – AIS shows an 83% probability that more than 34 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play over home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and off a road loss against a division rival. Here is a second system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% since 1997. Play over with home teams where the total is 35 or less in conference games and are off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. Here isa third system hitting 81% ATS for a 30-7 mark. Play over with road teams where the total is 35 or less after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game facing an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. Tennessee is also 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Baltimore is a solid 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore comes into this game the hotter of the two teams having won 6 of their last 7 games. Tennessee has gone just 4-3 over their last 7 games and two of those wins were against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day and Cleveland. In only two of the last 7 games has Baltimore not scored 27 or more points. Baltimore has the personnel to effectively run a balanced offensive attack against Tennessee. They can use the power running game and play action pass to keep Tennessee defense off stride. I would not be surprised at all to see Baltimore throw on first downs far more than what has been their norm. In the first meeting Baltimore made Collins beat them and he did with a late 4th quarter drive. Yet, they know this is not the type of offense geared toward heroic 4th quarter winning drives and they must put forth a relatively unpredictable offense. Essentially run when Baltimore thinks pass and vice versa. Collins was sacked just 8 times in 15 starts this season and there is reason to believe Baltimore will not blitz choosing to stack their already strong secondary. This will provide easy underneath pass completions for Collins. There will be turnovers too in this game based on the AiS. With that said, if these turnovers occur deep in the offense’s end of the field the over will be a win by the end of the third quarter. Based on the AiS this OVER play shapes to be a potential bar burner type of game. Take the OVER.
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