Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini Saturday's plays
20 Dime -- OREGON STATE (minus points vs. Arizona)
5 Dime -- PURDUE (plus points vs. Notre Dame)
OREGON STATE
This is a big game for both teams as they enter Pac-10 play, and I think the Beavers have what it takes to come away a winner today.
Oregon State has won nine of the last 10 meetings with Arizona by an average of 31-14, including a 19-17 victory in Tucson last year. OSU also is 9-1 ATS in those games.
The Beavers have went 2-1 this season, beating Portland State 34-7 and UNLV 23-21 before losing at home last week to No. 17 Cincinnati, 28-18, ending a 26-game home winning streak in nonconference games.
That loss is going to drive Oregon State to bounce back today against the Wildcats, who opened the season with wins over Central Michigan (19-6) and Northern Arizona (34-17) before losing 27-17 at Iowa last Saturday.
Arizona's offense is not as dynamic as Cincinnati's or UNLV's, so the Beavers should be able to stay in control today behind the running of star tailback Jacquizz Rodgers. That should help neutralize Wildcats running back Nic Grigsby, who has rushed for 400 yards and three touchdowns this season. Plus, Arizona is starting a new quarterback, Michigan State transfer Nick Foles, so OSU should be able to load up against the Wildcats' running game.
Arizona is 0-3 straight up as a road 'dog the last five years coming off of a road loss, and the Beavers are 7-2 ATS and SU the last five years coming off of a home loss. The favorite in this series also has covered 10 of the past 13 meetings.
Even with last week's loss, Oregon State has won 16 of its last 21 games in Corvallis. I think the Beavers get the job done again today. Take OSU to cover the points.
PURDUE
Notre Dame managed to edge Michigan State 33-30 last week, but coach Charlie Weis is hardly off the hot seat. And the flames are going to get higher after the Fighting Irish's game tonight at Purdue.
Notre Dame's top offensive threats are all banged up. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen is slowed by turf toe on his right foot, but should still play. However, running back Armando Allen is going to be a game-time decision because of an injured right ankle, and star receiver Michael Floyd could be out for the season with a broken collerbone.
Purdue averages 210.7 yards rushing per game, led by sophomore Ralph Bolden, and should be able to control the clock against the Irish, limiting Notre Dame's scoring opportunities. And it's not like the Boilermakers can't pile up the points themselves, as they average 36.3 points per game.
As long as Purdue QB Joey Elliott takes care of the ball and is efficient in the passing game, this game is going to stay close the entire way. Plus, with a night game in West Lafayette, the Boilermakers' faithful are going to be lathered up and rocking and rolling at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Better put some ice on your ass before the game, Weis, that seat might be getting a little hotter. Take Purdue to cover the points tonight.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
