Triple Threat Sports
3* Washington (+) over Stanford
This line seems to be based on the idea that Washington is going to suffer a massive letdown after beating USC last week. First off, do not think Sarkisian would let that happen to this team, and secondly, each of the last two seasons the teams that have pulled off the early season Pac 10 upset of the Trojans have gone on to cover the next game, so the letdown has not been as pronounced as some may think. Also, this is a veteran Washington team, as 18 of the 22 starters were starters last year and 14 of them played decent minutes in at least the 2007 season, some more than that. So, even though it seems like all is new at UW, there is enough experience here (more than both Stanford in 07 and Oregon State in 08 had) to avoid that letdown. As such, will handicap this game on merit and talent, and in that respect do not believe Stanford should be this big of a favorite. The Huskies were only a couple of plays away from beating LSU in the opener and controlled things in Week 2 in what was a massive lookahead spot. Remember, before the injury riddled debacle that was last season, this UW team was quite competitive with Jake Locker at the helm, and in fact it was against Stanford that he got injured last year. Even without Locker for the entirety of that game, the Huskies finished with a 27-21 first down edge. Stanford has a double revenger against UCLA up next and is 1-5 SU and 2-4 (both covers vs USC) for Harbaugh against ranked teams. In the end have to take the points in this one.
3* Washington (+) over Stanford
This line seems to be based on the idea that Washington is going to suffer a massive letdown after beating USC last week. First off, do not think Sarkisian would let that happen to this team, and secondly, each of the last two seasons the teams that have pulled off the early season Pac 10 upset of the Trojans have gone on to cover the next game, so the letdown has not been as pronounced as some may think. Also, this is a veteran Washington team, as 18 of the 22 starters were starters last year and 14 of them played decent minutes in at least the 2007 season, some more than that. So, even though it seems like all is new at UW, there is enough experience here (more than both Stanford in 07 and Oregon State in 08 had) to avoid that letdown. As such, will handicap this game on merit and talent, and in that respect do not believe Stanford should be this big of a favorite. The Huskies were only a couple of plays away from beating LSU in the opener and controlled things in Week 2 in what was a massive lookahead spot. Remember, before the injury riddled debacle that was last season, this UW team was quite competitive with Jake Locker at the helm, and in fact it was against Stanford that he got injured last year. Even without Locker for the entirety of that game, the Huskies finished with a 27-21 first down edge. Stanford has a double revenger against UCLA up next and is 1-5 SU and 2-4 (both covers vs USC) for Harbaugh against ranked teams. In the end have to take the points in this one.
BRIAN GABRIELLE
Matchup: Iowa at Penn St
Pick: Penn St -9
This game is a lot like the Michigan/Indiana game in that both teams are undefeated, but only one is for real. That team is Penn State.
The Lions certainly will be licking their chops at the rpospect of getting Iowa here in Happy Valey with revenge on the brain from last season. You see, the Lions had a perfect season going in 2008 and a national title game appearance was within reach until the team was upended, 24-23, on a last- second field goal by Iowa in early November, dashing any hopes of the National Championship. That win was nothing new in the series, as Iowa has come out on top in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
That changes today.
The Nittany Lions have has outscored their first three opponents by a combined score of 90-20 and all three victories came at home, where the team has won 30 of its last 32 games, including last weeks 31-6 rout of instate rival Temple. In fact, Penn States defense held all 3 of it's first 3 opponents to 7 points or less.
Predicted Score: Penn St. 28, Iowa 13
Take Penn St.
Matchup: Iowa at Penn St
Pick: Penn St -9
This game is a lot like the Michigan/Indiana game in that both teams are undefeated, but only one is for real. That team is Penn State.
The Lions certainly will be licking their chops at the rpospect of getting Iowa here in Happy Valey with revenge on the brain from last season. You see, the Lions had a perfect season going in 2008 and a national title game appearance was within reach until the team was upended, 24-23, on a last- second field goal by Iowa in early November, dashing any hopes of the National Championship. That win was nothing new in the series, as Iowa has come out on top in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
That changes today.
The Nittany Lions have has outscored their first three opponents by a combined score of 90-20 and all three victories came at home, where the team has won 30 of its last 32 games, including last weeks 31-6 rout of instate rival Temple. In fact, Penn States defense held all 3 of it's first 3 opponents to 7 points or less.
Predicted Score: Penn St. 28, Iowa 13
Take Penn St.
Bettersworld
2* Minnesota pk over Northwestern - Both of these squads played at Syracuse but only one came away with a win.......Minnesota. Though both games were 3 point games. Northwestern has had the Gophers number the last two years, beating them by a touchdown last year and by 1 point in a 49-48 shootout in 2007. Losing over and over to the same team is certainly a great motivator. Minnesota is loaded with returning starters from last years team on both sides of the ball. Northwestern has played Towson, Easter Mich and Syracuse while Minnesota has played Air Force and Cal, as well as Syracuse. This is a situation where having played the tougher schedule will help Minnesota. They were able to tie #6 Cal in the 3rd quarter last week before falling by 14. Expect things to work a little easier for them this week. We'll take the Gophers here at pk.
2* Michigan State +3 over Wisky - Wisconsin is 3-0 but barely. They were lucky to get by Fresno and Northern Illinois and then blew out Wofford. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 1-2 but really just two plays away from being 3-0 themselves. Yet find themselves in danger of being 1-3 on the year and watching their Bowl game hopes fly out the window and it's still September!. Expect the desperation to kick in this week. Michigan State is every bit as good as the Badgers. Wisky is 5-9 last 14 as a fav and 8-17 against the spread last 25 games on the board. We look for the Spartans to win this one straight up.
2* Minnesota pk over Northwestern - Both of these squads played at Syracuse but only one came away with a win.......Minnesota. Though both games were 3 point games. Northwestern has had the Gophers number the last two years, beating them by a touchdown last year and by 1 point in a 49-48 shootout in 2007. Losing over and over to the same team is certainly a great motivator. Minnesota is loaded with returning starters from last years team on both sides of the ball. Northwestern has played Towson, Easter Mich and Syracuse while Minnesota has played Air Force and Cal, as well as Syracuse. This is a situation where having played the tougher schedule will help Minnesota. They were able to tie #6 Cal in the 3rd quarter last week before falling by 14. Expect things to work a little easier for them this week. We'll take the Gophers here at pk.
2* Michigan State +3 over Wisky - Wisconsin is 3-0 but barely. They were lucky to get by Fresno and Northern Illinois and then blew out Wofford. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 1-2 but really just two plays away from being 3-0 themselves. Yet find themselves in danger of being 1-3 on the year and watching their Bowl game hopes fly out the window and it's still September!. Expect the desperation to kick in this week. Michigan State is every bit as good as the Badgers. Wisky is 5-9 last 14 as a fav and 8-17 against the spread last 25 games on the board. We look for the Spartans to win this one straight up.
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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Saturday
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 6:00PM EST (MTN)
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Colorado State Rams @ BYU Cougars
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 5* BYU Cougars -16
Analysis:
The BYU Cougars look to rebound after suffering a very tough blowout loss at home to the Florida State Seminoles last week 54 to 28 breaking an 18-game home win streak. Even though the scoreboard was lopsided the yards per game was rather close with the Cougars actually outgaining the Noles 512 to 473. The key for FSU in that win was the fact they won the turnover battle with BYU a -5 in that department.
Tonight the Cougars open conference play and should be focused as they are coming off a loss and the Rams played them very close last year in Fort Collins. Add to that the Rams surprised Nevada last week winning SU as an underdog so the Rams will certainly have the Cougars undivided attention here tonight.
Colorado State is 3-0 this season but the wins have come against the likes of Nevada, Weber State and an overrated Colorado squad. In fact the Rams struggled against Weber State winning 24 to 23 as a 13.5 point home favorite. In that game they were held to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of only 63 yards rushing. Defensively they held Weber State to 58 yards rushing but gave up over 250 yards through the air and 8.9 yards per catch. Not good news when facing BYU’s QB Max Hall who is completing 69% of his passes for 315 yards per game.
In the Rams win over Nevada they took advantage of three Wolfpack turnovers but were outgained in that contest. They opened the season with a win over in-state rival Colorado Buffalos who have shown they were overrated and not deserving of the favorite status. Tonight’s contest will be their first true test and one we believe they will come up short in versus a motivated Cougars squad.
CSU QB Stucker has really struggled out of the gate his team has used turnovers and poor performances by the opposition to get that 3-0 record. He is only completing 50 percent of his passes for an average of 192 yards per game with a 4-3 TD/INT ratio. He will be in for a long night against this aggressive and talented Cougars defensive unit just ask Sooners QB’s about their ability.
Colorado State is 2-5 ATS playing away with conference revenge and 1-5 ATS on the road off back-to-back home games. CSU is also 1-5 ATS as underdogs of 7 or more when facing an opponent off a double-digit straight up loss in their last game. We know that underdogs in Game Four of the season have struggled when they are 3-0 and coming off a bowl season last year posting a record of 19-31-2 against the spread. Those numbers get worse when they are facing a team that won eight or more games last season going 11-23 ATS in that situation. One final element to that system tells us if their opposition is coming off a loss of less than thirty points they are 3-17 against the spread. All systems are go for a Cougars win and cover based on the tech set and system.
A check of the database we find that BYU is active in one of our CFB Systems that tells us to Play ON a home favorite of 3-42½ points before a lined home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win. These home favorites are 14-0-1 ATS and average covering the spread by almost 10 points per game.
With solid support coming from our fundamental indicators as well as our technical elements we will lay the chalk here as the Cougars bounce back from a tough loss and bring the Rams back down to earth.
Graded Selection: 5* BYU Cougars 39 Colorado State Rams 17
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 12:00PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Michigan Wolverines -20
Analysis:
The 3-0 Michigan Wolverines welcome the 3-0 Indiana Hoosiers to the Big House on Saturday for a Big 10 conference affair. These teams have not met since 2006 but the Wolves had covered three in a row at that point. Michigan has completely dominated this series going 30-1 SU against the Hoosiers since 1980. The Wolves have won the last five in this series by an average of 30 points per game.
Just as Coach Rod did at West Virginia his second season has seen a dramatic turnaround from the previous year. Michigan has the perfect QB in Tate Forcier to run their spread offense averaging 6.5 yards per play so far this season. On Saturday they will face a Hoosiers “D” that is giving up more than five yards per play and this coming against inferior opposition so we expect this Wolverines offense to have another huge day both on the ground and through the air.
Latest injury report has Michigan QB Forcier listed as probable but HC Rich Rodriquez says he expects Forcier to start on Saturday versus the Hoosiers. Forcier had injured his ribs last week but Rodriquez said he was not limited during the week and has no reason to believe he will not play and be a factor in their game on Saturday.
The Michigan Wolverines are ranked 27 on offense averaging 439.0 yards of offense per game. The Wolves are rushing for an average of 270.7 yards per game and passing for 168.3 yards per game. Indiana is ranked 59 on offense even after facing three lightweights with an average of 375.3 yards per game. They are averaging 146.7 yards per game on the ground and 228.7 yards per game through the air.
Michigan is averaging 38.0 points per game this season and holding opponents to 19.3 points per game. The Hoosiers have averaged 38.0 points per game on the road this season and allowed opponents to average 21.0 points per game and once again this coming against a very easy early season schedule.
Indiana is 8-15 ATS in their series and 7-20 ATS on the road in the Big 10. The Hoosiers are 17-28 ATS as a dog in their price range and 8-12 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Indiana is 17-36-2 ATS when playing on the road, 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games overall, 3-10 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 or more points and 1-6 ATS their last 7 following an against the spread win in their last game. The Wolves are 4-0 ATS their last 4 in the month of September, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Wolverines win by 24 points in today’s matchup. The Math Model projection is somewhat closer but it still has Michigan covering the spread by 2.9 points and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index has Michigan rolling past the Hoosiers by 29.5 points. The Wolverines are more talented from top to bottom and they make easy work of an overmatched Hoosiers squad on Saturday.
With last season still fresh on the minds of this Wolverines team we expect them to be fully focused and not look past anyone which spells disaster for a Hoosiers team that just doesn’t have the talent or skill position players to make a run at Michigan on Saturday. Lay the chalk as the Wolves continue their solid play and get a conference victory plus another spread win on Saturday at the Big House.
Graded Selection: 4* Michigan Wolverines 42 Indiana Hoosiers 14
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 3:00PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: UNLV Rebels @ Wyoming Cowboys
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels -3
Analysis:
The UNLV Rebels hit the highway for a meeting with the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie on Saturday afternoon. UNLV is 2-1 on the season and just a few seconds from being a perfect 3-0 on the year. The Rebels are coming off a 1 point win last week versus Hawaii 34 to 33 at home the week before they fell to Oregon State 23 to 21 as a 6.5 point underdog.
Rebels QB Clayton threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in their comeback win against Hawaii last week. We expect Clayton and the Rebels to have another big day on offense with the Cowboys giving up 283 yards passing per game on 61 percent completions. They will face a Wyoming stop unit that has done little to stop anyone allowing 31.5 points per game at home this season.
UNLV has covered the last three straight in this series and 5-1 ATS when playing in Laramie. Wyoming is 4-25-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games including 2-17 ATS when coming off a SU loss in their last game.
Wyoming is ranked 99th on offense averaging 312.3 yards per game. The Cowboys are rushing for an average of 136.3 yards per game but that number is definitely skewed by the fact they rushed for 246.0 yards on 5.1 yards per carry against Weber State. In their two most recent games against decent defensive teams they only managed 85 yards on 2.5 yards a carry against Texas and 76 yards on 2.2 yards per carry last week versus Colorado.
Wyoming has little in the way of an aerial attack averaging 176.0 yards passing per game. They have used two different QB’s versus Texas and Colorado with them only completing 44 percent of their passes. Lack of real talent and a very weak offensive front have caused 11 sacks and poor performances no matter which one is under center. At home this season they have only managed to score an average of 19.5 points per game.
The Cowboys are 5-21 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 7-19 ATS their last 26 games installed as an underdog, 16-35-1 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game, 3-13 ATS after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in their last game, 2-9-1 ATS their last 12 in Laramie, 5-23-1 ATS their last 29 games overall, 1-11-1 ATS when facing a winning team and 0-5 ATS as an underdog in this price range.
With significant fundamental advantages and strong technical support we will back the visitor here as the Rebels grab an all important conference win on the road in a place they have had success. Lay the short price as the Rebels continue the trend by defeating the Cowboys and covering the spread.
Graded Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels 31 Wyoming Cowboys 17
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 3:30PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5
Analysis:
This will be the SEC opener for the Pachyderms as they host the Razorbacks of Arkansas on Saturday afternoon at the capstone. Bama has won seventeen consecutive SEC openers and number eighteen is just sixty minutes away.
Arkansas will be seeking some revenge as the host went into Fayetteville last season and blasted the Razorbacks 49 to 14. To gain revenge you must have the players to enforce your will upon your opponent and that is where Arkansas will fall short today with little change for them since last season and nothing but positives and improvement for their opponent spells another horrible outcome versus this group of pachyderms.
Arkansas has talent on the offensive side of the ball and have proven to be somewhat explosive under second year HC Bobby Petrino. The Achilles Heel for this Razorbacks team is their defense which was exposed last week versus a so-so Georgia offense giving up 533 yards on 8.9 yards per play. What kept them in that game was Georgia’s poor performance on the defensive side of the ball and that will not be the case today as the Razorbacks face probably the most physical defense they will see this season.
The Arkansas defense will face a much more balanced attack from the Tide on Saturday. They are certainly a Saban offense, they beat you down with a powerful rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 6.7 yards per rush. Tide QB Greg McElroy has led this balanced attack with an average of 8.7 yards per pass play and a total of 244.7 yards per game through the air. This Tide team is averaging 46.5 points per game at home and 42.3 points per game overall.
Alabama has had two weeks to prepare for this SEC opener in that they faced two Sun Belt teams at home the last two weeks. But if we go back to their season-opener against Virginia Tech we see they had their way with them also piling up 508 yards of total offense on 6.5 yards per play against a very good Virginia Tech defense.
The real question in this game will be how Bama’s “D” will handle the Arkansas offense. Razorbacks’ QB Ryan Mallett will be making his first road start but he has played well to this point in the season having a solid outing in the loss to Georgia although that game was of course at home. The Tide returned 8 starters from last season’s defensive unit including three of their four defensive backs. Alabama’s defense is better this season allowing a mere 3.9 yards per pass play and 3.4 yards per play overall compared to 5.0 and 4.3 last season. Those numbers do not tell exactly how good this defense really is because the starters have been pulled early in the last two games because they were blowouts.
Arkansas is 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in their last game, 0-4 ATS their last 4 games during the month of September and 0-5 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in their last game. Alabama is 7-2 ATS their last 9 when installed as a favorite, 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game, 6-2 ATS after a game where they had 450 or more total yards and 10-5 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Bama HC Nick Saban is 19-5 ATS at home after a win by 17 or more points and 39-23 ATS off a home win.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for today’s game. Play against CFB road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. Playing against these road teams has produced a record of 46-16 ATS for 74.2% winners!
We will back the much better defensive team playing at home in their conference opener as the Pachyderms trample this group of Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon at the capstone.
Graded Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide 37 Arkansas Razorbacks 14
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 9:15PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5
Analysis:
The Houston Cougars have had a week to enjoy their upset victory over the then number 5 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys while their opponent was locking horns with Texas.
Texas Tech held the high-powered Longhorns offense out of the endzone until the second half of their game last week and made a game of it until the fourth quarter. Tech QB Taylor Potts hit on 46 of 62 for 420 yards passing in the loss at Texas. He has stepped right into the Mike Leach offense and they don’t appear to be missing a beat.
Key here will be how well the Cougars defense can contain the Potts led attack of Texas Tech. The Cougar offense returned eight starters from a number 2 ranked offense in 2008 but their defense was ranked 101 in the country and has shown very little improvement in that department even with the win over the Cowboys two weeks ago.
The Cougar defense gave up 194 yards rushing and 240 yards through the air in the win over Oklahoma State. They will not catch a Red Raiders team off guard this week and their defense will certainly be put to the test here tonight.
Houston is 3-9 ATS after a SU win and 17-35 ATS following an ATS win in their last game. Texas Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS following a game against Texas, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, 38-14 ATS off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS when facing teams that have a winning record at home.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for tonight’s contest. Play ON a non-conference road team (not a favorite of more than 7 points or underdog of more than 3 points) off a SU loss of 3+ points & ATS win/push not seeking revenge for an ATS loss of more than 3 points last season vs. an opponent not off a home game. These road teams are 12-1-1 ATS and average covering the spread by 13.3 points per game.
With the Cougars riding high off their win overconfidence and a strong offensive unit in Texas Tech will bring them back down to earth. Take the point(s) with the Red Raiders as they spoil the Cougars dreams and grab a win on Saturday night in Houston.
Graded Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders 41 Houston Cougars 34
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 6:00PM EST (MTN)
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Colorado State Rams @ BYU Cougars
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 5* BYU Cougars -16
Analysis:
The BYU Cougars look to rebound after suffering a very tough blowout loss at home to the Florida State Seminoles last week 54 to 28 breaking an 18-game home win streak. Even though the scoreboard was lopsided the yards per game was rather close with the Cougars actually outgaining the Noles 512 to 473. The key for FSU in that win was the fact they won the turnover battle with BYU a -5 in that department.
Tonight the Cougars open conference play and should be focused as they are coming off a loss and the Rams played them very close last year in Fort Collins. Add to that the Rams surprised Nevada last week winning SU as an underdog so the Rams will certainly have the Cougars undivided attention here tonight.
Colorado State is 3-0 this season but the wins have come against the likes of Nevada, Weber State and an overrated Colorado squad. In fact the Rams struggled against Weber State winning 24 to 23 as a 13.5 point home favorite. In that game they were held to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of only 63 yards rushing. Defensively they held Weber State to 58 yards rushing but gave up over 250 yards through the air and 8.9 yards per catch. Not good news when facing BYU’s QB Max Hall who is completing 69% of his passes for 315 yards per game.
In the Rams win over Nevada they took advantage of three Wolfpack turnovers but were outgained in that contest. They opened the season with a win over in-state rival Colorado Buffalos who have shown they were overrated and not deserving of the favorite status. Tonight’s contest will be their first true test and one we believe they will come up short in versus a motivated Cougars squad.
CSU QB Stucker has really struggled out of the gate his team has used turnovers and poor performances by the opposition to get that 3-0 record. He is only completing 50 percent of his passes for an average of 192 yards per game with a 4-3 TD/INT ratio. He will be in for a long night against this aggressive and talented Cougars defensive unit just ask Sooners QB’s about their ability.
Colorado State is 2-5 ATS playing away with conference revenge and 1-5 ATS on the road off back-to-back home games. CSU is also 1-5 ATS as underdogs of 7 or more when facing an opponent off a double-digit straight up loss in their last game. We know that underdogs in Game Four of the season have struggled when they are 3-0 and coming off a bowl season last year posting a record of 19-31-2 against the spread. Those numbers get worse when they are facing a team that won eight or more games last season going 11-23 ATS in that situation. One final element to that system tells us if their opposition is coming off a loss of less than thirty points they are 3-17 against the spread. All systems are go for a Cougars win and cover based on the tech set and system.
A check of the database we find that BYU is active in one of our CFB Systems that tells us to Play ON a home favorite of 3-42½ points before a lined home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win. These home favorites are 14-0-1 ATS and average covering the spread by almost 10 points per game.
With solid support coming from our fundamental indicators as well as our technical elements we will lay the chalk here as the Cougars bounce back from a tough loss and bring the Rams back down to earth.
Graded Selection: 5* BYU Cougars 39 Colorado State Rams 17
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 12:00PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* Michigan Wolverines -20
Analysis:
The 3-0 Michigan Wolverines welcome the 3-0 Indiana Hoosiers to the Big House on Saturday for a Big 10 conference affair. These teams have not met since 2006 but the Wolves had covered three in a row at that point. Michigan has completely dominated this series going 30-1 SU against the Hoosiers since 1980. The Wolves have won the last five in this series by an average of 30 points per game.
Just as Coach Rod did at West Virginia his second season has seen a dramatic turnaround from the previous year. Michigan has the perfect QB in Tate Forcier to run their spread offense averaging 6.5 yards per play so far this season. On Saturday they will face a Hoosiers “D” that is giving up more than five yards per play and this coming against inferior opposition so we expect this Wolverines offense to have another huge day both on the ground and through the air.
Latest injury report has Michigan QB Forcier listed as probable but HC Rich Rodriquez says he expects Forcier to start on Saturday versus the Hoosiers. Forcier had injured his ribs last week but Rodriquez said he was not limited during the week and has no reason to believe he will not play and be a factor in their game on Saturday.
The Michigan Wolverines are ranked 27 on offense averaging 439.0 yards of offense per game. The Wolves are rushing for an average of 270.7 yards per game and passing for 168.3 yards per game. Indiana is ranked 59 on offense even after facing three lightweights with an average of 375.3 yards per game. They are averaging 146.7 yards per game on the ground and 228.7 yards per game through the air.
Michigan is averaging 38.0 points per game this season and holding opponents to 19.3 points per game. The Hoosiers have averaged 38.0 points per game on the road this season and allowed opponents to average 21.0 points per game and once again this coming against a very easy early season schedule.
Indiana is 8-15 ATS in their series and 7-20 ATS on the road in the Big 10. The Hoosiers are 17-28 ATS as a dog in their price range and 8-12 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Indiana is 17-36-2 ATS when playing on the road, 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games overall, 3-10 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 or more points and 1-6 ATS their last 7 following an against the spread win in their last game. The Wolves are 4-0 ATS their last 4 in the month of September, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Wolverines win by 24 points in today’s matchup. The Math Model projection is somewhat closer but it still has Michigan covering the spread by 2.9 points and our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index has Michigan rolling past the Hoosiers by 29.5 points. The Wolverines are more talented from top to bottom and they make easy work of an overmatched Hoosiers squad on Saturday.
With last season still fresh on the minds of this Wolverines team we expect them to be fully focused and not look past anyone which spells disaster for a Hoosiers team that just doesn’t have the talent or skill position players to make a run at Michigan on Saturday. Lay the chalk as the Wolves continue their solid play and get a conference victory plus another spread win on Saturday at the Big House.
Graded Selection: 4* Michigan Wolverines 42 Indiana Hoosiers 14
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 3:00PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: UNLV Rebels @ Wyoming Cowboys
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels -3
Analysis:
The UNLV Rebels hit the highway for a meeting with the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie on Saturday afternoon. UNLV is 2-1 on the season and just a few seconds from being a perfect 3-0 on the year. The Rebels are coming off a 1 point win last week versus Hawaii 34 to 33 at home the week before they fell to Oregon State 23 to 21 as a 6.5 point underdog.
Rebels QB Clayton threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in their comeback win against Hawaii last week. We expect Clayton and the Rebels to have another big day on offense with the Cowboys giving up 283 yards passing per game on 61 percent completions. They will face a Wyoming stop unit that has done little to stop anyone allowing 31.5 points per game at home this season.
UNLV has covered the last three straight in this series and 5-1 ATS when playing in Laramie. Wyoming is 4-25-1 ATS in their last 30 conference games including 2-17 ATS when coming off a SU loss in their last game.
Wyoming is ranked 99th on offense averaging 312.3 yards per game. The Cowboys are rushing for an average of 136.3 yards per game but that number is definitely skewed by the fact they rushed for 246.0 yards on 5.1 yards per carry against Weber State. In their two most recent games against decent defensive teams they only managed 85 yards on 2.5 yards a carry against Texas and 76 yards on 2.2 yards per carry last week versus Colorado.
Wyoming has little in the way of an aerial attack averaging 176.0 yards passing per game. They have used two different QB’s versus Texas and Colorado with them only completing 44 percent of their passes. Lack of real talent and a very weak offensive front have caused 11 sacks and poor performances no matter which one is under center. At home this season they have only managed to score an average of 19.5 points per game.
The Cowboys are 5-21 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 7-19 ATS their last 26 games installed as an underdog, 16-35-1 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in their last game, 3-13 ATS after gaining less than 100 yards rushing in their last game, 2-9-1 ATS their last 12 in Laramie, 5-23-1 ATS their last 29 games overall, 1-11-1 ATS when facing a winning team and 0-5 ATS as an underdog in this price range.
With significant fundamental advantages and strong technical support we will back the visitor here as the Rebels grab an all important conference win on the road in a place they have had success. Lay the short price as the Rebels continue the trend by defeating the Cowboys and covering the spread.
Graded Selection: 4* UNLV Rebels 31 Wyoming Cowboys 17
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 3:30PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide -17.5
Analysis:
This will be the SEC opener for the Pachyderms as they host the Razorbacks of Arkansas on Saturday afternoon at the capstone. Bama has won seventeen consecutive SEC openers and number eighteen is just sixty minutes away.
Arkansas will be seeking some revenge as the host went into Fayetteville last season and blasted the Razorbacks 49 to 14. To gain revenge you must have the players to enforce your will upon your opponent and that is where Arkansas will fall short today with little change for them since last season and nothing but positives and improvement for their opponent spells another horrible outcome versus this group of pachyderms.
Arkansas has talent on the offensive side of the ball and have proven to be somewhat explosive under second year HC Bobby Petrino. The Achilles Heel for this Razorbacks team is their defense which was exposed last week versus a so-so Georgia offense giving up 533 yards on 8.9 yards per play. What kept them in that game was Georgia’s poor performance on the defensive side of the ball and that will not be the case today as the Razorbacks face probably the most physical defense they will see this season.
The Arkansas defense will face a much more balanced attack from the Tide on Saturday. They are certainly a Saban offense, they beat you down with a powerful rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 6.7 yards per rush. Tide QB Greg McElroy has led this balanced attack with an average of 8.7 yards per pass play and a total of 244.7 yards per game through the air. This Tide team is averaging 46.5 points per game at home and 42.3 points per game overall.
Alabama has had two weeks to prepare for this SEC opener in that they faced two Sun Belt teams at home the last two weeks. But if we go back to their season-opener against Virginia Tech we see they had their way with them also piling up 508 yards of total offense on 6.5 yards per play against a very good Virginia Tech defense.
The real question in this game will be how Bama’s “D” will handle the Arkansas offense. Razorbacks’ QB Ryan Mallett will be making his first road start but he has played well to this point in the season having a solid outing in the loss to Georgia although that game was of course at home. The Tide returned 8 starters from last season’s defensive unit including three of their four defensive backs. Alabama’s defense is better this season allowing a mere 3.9 yards per pass play and 3.4 yards per play overall compared to 5.0 and 4.3 last season. Those numbers do not tell exactly how good this defense really is because the starters have been pulled early in the last two games because they were blowouts.
Arkansas is 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 40 points in their last game, 0-4 ATS their last 4 games during the month of September and 0-5 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in their last game. Alabama is 7-2 ATS their last 9 when installed as a favorite, 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game, 6-2 ATS after a game where they had 450 or more total yards and 10-5 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Bama HC Nick Saban is 19-5 ATS at home after a win by 17 or more points and 39-23 ATS off a home win.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for today’s game. Play against CFB road teams after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. Playing against these road teams has produced a record of 46-16 ATS for 74.2% winners!
We will back the much better defensive team playing at home in their conference opener as the Pachyderms trample this group of Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon at the capstone.
Graded Selection: 3* Alabama Crimson Tide 37 Arkansas Razorbacks 14
Date/Time: Saturday September 26 / 9:15PM EST
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5
Analysis:
The Houston Cougars have had a week to enjoy their upset victory over the then number 5 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys while their opponent was locking horns with Texas.
Texas Tech held the high-powered Longhorns offense out of the endzone until the second half of their game last week and made a game of it until the fourth quarter. Tech QB Taylor Potts hit on 46 of 62 for 420 yards passing in the loss at Texas. He has stepped right into the Mike Leach offense and they don’t appear to be missing a beat.
Key here will be how well the Cougars defense can contain the Potts led attack of Texas Tech. The Cougar offense returned eight starters from a number 2 ranked offense in 2008 but their defense was ranked 101 in the country and has shown very little improvement in that department even with the win over the Cowboys two weeks ago.
The Cougar defense gave up 194 yards rushing and 240 yards through the air in the win over Oklahoma State. They will not catch a Red Raiders team off guard this week and their defense will certainly be put to the test here tonight.
Houston is 3-9 ATS after a SU win and 17-35 ATS following an ATS win in their last game. Texas Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS following a game against Texas, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, 38-14 ATS off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS when facing teams that have a winning record at home.
A check of the database reveals a system that is active for tonight’s contest. Play ON a non-conference road team (not a favorite of more than 7 points or underdog of more than 3 points) off a SU loss of 3+ points & ATS win/push not seeking revenge for an ATS loss of more than 3 points last season vs. an opponent not off a home game. These road teams are 12-1-1 ATS and average covering the spread by 13.3 points per game.
With the Cougars riding high off their win overconfidence and a strong offensive unit in Texas Tech will bring them back down to earth. Take the point(s) with the Red Raiders as they spoil the Cougars dreams and grab a win on Saturday night in Houston.
Graded Selection: 3* Texas Tech Red Raiders 41 Houston Cougars 34
