Randall the Handle 9/26
Fresno State +17 over CINCINNATI PINNACLE
Cincinnati is on a roll to start the season opening 3-0 and is getting respect from the Associated Press and Coaches in the polls. I’m not going to diminish what they’ve done in beating two BCS teams on the road but this is still not a team that can be counted on to cover two touchdown spreads on a consistent basis. The two legitimate Cincinnati wins came against teams with serious questions at Quarterback and in College Football it’s almost impossible to win games with poor play at that position. Why does this matter? - Because Cincinnati lost an eye-opening 10 defensive starters from their 2008 team and was fortunate to face schools who couldn’t get anything from their offense. Enter Fresno State, who has a history of playing any team at any location and isn’t intimated by any team in College Football. Fresno State is led by leading FBS rusher Ryan Mathews, who has rushed for 449 yards through three games and has helped the Fresno State offense average 38 points a game thus far. The Fresno State offense can score points against legitimate teams and should be able to score touchdowns against an unproven and untested Cincinnati defense. The odds-makers agree, as they have set the total at 61.5, the fourth highest posted total of this weekend’s games. The key to keeping the game within reach for Fresno State will be to contain the Cincinnati duo of Quarterback Tony Pike and Wide Receiver Marshawn Gilyard. Pike and Gilyard are both having phenomenal seasons and will need to get the full attention of Fresno State’s defense. Fresno State will have to keep them off the field with long and extended drives that eat up the clock and keep the game close enough to provide them with a chance to win. With an established running game going up against an unknown Cincinnati defense, the game-plan is there for Hill and Fresno State to shock the Bearcats. It wouldn’t be the first time a top 25-team lost to the team nobody ever wants to play. Play: #327 Fresno State +17 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).
OHIO STATE -14 over Illinois PINNACLE
While Ohio State’s National Title aspirations vanished with a close loss against Southern California, this is still one of the premier programs in all of College Football. Talent is never an issue at a school like Ohio State and I believe they are taking unfair criticism for barely beating Navy and the aforementioned loss to USC. This is still a team that features the likes of High School Player of the Year Terrelle Pryor, NFL caliber defensive safety’s Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell and Running Back Dan Herron. Ohio State has had the most players drafted out of any school since 2000, meaning Coach Jim Tressel reloads every year and will always have the players to compete for a BCS game. Now Illinois must come into the Horseshoe to open Big 10 play and the reality is we still know very, very little about this team. Illinois looked terrible in losing to Missouri, a team who they should have handled and then played FCS “rival” Illinois State in a game that means absolutely nothing. Here is what we know about Illinois: They have a hit-or-miss Quarterback in Juice Williams, who can either single handedly win you a game or kill all momentum with killer interceptions, and are coached by the much maligned Ron Zook, who has a 10-22 conference record and is 6-13 on the road during his time at Illinois. It’s also worth noting that Williams did not play two weeks ago and is battling a Quadriceps injury but is going to play this week. Ohio State will look to establish the run against an Illinois defense that returned 5 starters from last year’s team, a team which Ohio State had 305 yards rushing against in last season’s game. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor will contribute to the running game, as he already rushed for 176 yards and two touchdowns on the season and Dan Herron will also look to rebound from a disappointing start to the year. The unfortunate truth for Illinois is they lack the talent to keep up with a faster and more motivated Ohio State team. The fact that we know almost nothing about them makes backing them very difficult to understand, as the College game is all about what have you done and where have you done it. In Illinois case, that’s absolutely nothing. Play: #308 Ohio State – 14 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Fresno State +17 over CINCINNATI PINNACLE
Cincinnati is on a roll to start the season opening 3-0 and is getting respect from the Associated Press and Coaches in the polls. I’m not going to diminish what they’ve done in beating two BCS teams on the road but this is still not a team that can be counted on to cover two touchdown spreads on a consistent basis. The two legitimate Cincinnati wins came against teams with serious questions at Quarterback and in College Football it’s almost impossible to win games with poor play at that position. Why does this matter? - Because Cincinnati lost an eye-opening 10 defensive starters from their 2008 team and was fortunate to face schools who couldn’t get anything from their offense. Enter Fresno State, who has a history of playing any team at any location and isn’t intimated by any team in College Football. Fresno State is led by leading FBS rusher Ryan Mathews, who has rushed for 449 yards through three games and has helped the Fresno State offense average 38 points a game thus far. The Fresno State offense can score points against legitimate teams and should be able to score touchdowns against an unproven and untested Cincinnati defense. The odds-makers agree, as they have set the total at 61.5, the fourth highest posted total of this weekend’s games. The key to keeping the game within reach for Fresno State will be to contain the Cincinnati duo of Quarterback Tony Pike and Wide Receiver Marshawn Gilyard. Pike and Gilyard are both having phenomenal seasons and will need to get the full attention of Fresno State’s defense. Fresno State will have to keep them off the field with long and extended drives that eat up the clock and keep the game close enough to provide them with a chance to win. With an established running game going up against an unknown Cincinnati defense, the game-plan is there for Hill and Fresno State to shock the Bearcats. It wouldn’t be the first time a top 25-team lost to the team nobody ever wants to play. Play: #327 Fresno State +17 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).
OHIO STATE -14 over Illinois PINNACLE
While Ohio State’s National Title aspirations vanished with a close loss against Southern California, this is still one of the premier programs in all of College Football. Talent is never an issue at a school like Ohio State and I believe they are taking unfair criticism for barely beating Navy and the aforementioned loss to USC. This is still a team that features the likes of High School Player of the Year Terrelle Pryor, NFL caliber defensive safety’s Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell and Running Back Dan Herron. Ohio State has had the most players drafted out of any school since 2000, meaning Coach Jim Tressel reloads every year and will always have the players to compete for a BCS game. Now Illinois must come into the Horseshoe to open Big 10 play and the reality is we still know very, very little about this team. Illinois looked terrible in losing to Missouri, a team who they should have handled and then played FCS “rival” Illinois State in a game that means absolutely nothing. Here is what we know about Illinois: They have a hit-or-miss Quarterback in Juice Williams, who can either single handedly win you a game or kill all momentum with killer interceptions, and are coached by the much maligned Ron Zook, who has a 10-22 conference record and is 6-13 on the road during his time at Illinois. It’s also worth noting that Williams did not play two weeks ago and is battling a Quadriceps injury but is going to play this week. Ohio State will look to establish the run against an Illinois defense that returned 5 starters from last year’s team, a team which Ohio State had 305 yards rushing against in last season’s game. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor will contribute to the running game, as he already rushed for 176 yards and two touchdowns on the season and Dan Herron will also look to rebound from a disappointing start to the year. The unfortunate truth for Illinois is they lack the talent to keep up with a faster and more motivated Ohio State team. The fact that we know almost nothing about them makes backing them very difficult to understand, as the College game is all about what have you done and where have you done it. In Illinois case, that’s absolutely nothing. Play: #308 Ohio State – 14 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
He has been horrible this week.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Illinois +14
Not one person, or analysis I have read is giving Illinois a chance today. However, the trends tell a different story! Illinois is 9-1 ATS since October 5 1985 vs Ohio state in games 1-5. Illinois is also 11-2-1 ATS in games 1-4 vs a Big 10 team and their next game is home. Ohio State is known for coming out flat against teams they are supposed to dominate. Look for a hungry and improved Illinois team to cover this spread today.
*200 LSU -12
Miss St has had a much softer schedule thus far, and this line is low because they pulled off a straight up victory over a weaker than usual Vanderbilt team last week. The Miss St spread offense will struggle against this LSU defense that has speed and the hunger to hit someone. I have several trends that support a LSU victory today. LSU is 8-0 ATS (+19.6 ppg) since September 11, 1993 on the road vs. MSST and LSU is 7-0 ATS (+21.2 ppg) since November 15, 1986 as a road favorite vs. MSST. However, MSST is 0-9 ATS Since September 12 1992 Vs LSU in games 1-4. Take LSU and feel good about a solid cover today!
*200 Rice +7.5
This game has sucker written all over it. Vanderbilt is a much weaker team than most think this year. With only 45% of the public on Rice the line has dropped over 1.5 points to 7. Rice is 11-0 ATS since October 3 1981 at home when 2 games ago they faced a big 12 team. Take Rice and the points at home today to cover this spread against a Vandy team that was beat up pretty bad in a hrad hitting contest last week.
*200 Kansas -13
The JayHawks have done what it takes to be a double digit favorite today. Last week their defense turned the corner and sent David Cutcliffes Duke Blue Devils to the sideline 8 straight times with out a score. Todd Reesing, the Kansas quarterback is completing 64% of his career passes. There was an unusual brawl on campus on this week. There are rumors that close to 10 football players could be displined this weekend, with top receiver Briscoe being one of them. I don't see that happening this weekend especially with the line staying flat at a solid 13. The League is 0-9 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 18, 2006 as a dog vs. KAN after a home game. Kansas is 16-6 ATS record in its last 22 as a home favorite. Take Kansas minus the points for the cover.
*300 Arkansas State -2
Ark St has had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Troy Trojans came out last week with a bruising win over UAB. The Red Wolves are better than the team that Troy beat by 26 in 2008. The Trojans are not as good as last season's team, and have struggled to move the ball at times. Ark St has a 3 senior that are up for player of the year honors. I love this Ark St team to inflict some revenge today on the Trojans. We will side with the public in game and take the Red Wolves for the cover.
*300 Iowa +10
Iowa does one thing well, and that is they get up for Penn State. Iowa has won 4 out of the last 5 games straight up. Yes, Iowa is rebuilding this year. However, they are still playing Penn St so all the rules are out the door today. Penn St is 0-7 ATS in games 1-4 when their next game is away and their opponents next conference game is vs the Big 10. The Penn State offense and Iowa Hawkeye defense are pretty evenly matched. This will be an exciting chess match to watch. Take Iowa for the cover today, and thank their special teams play, and ability to get the turnovers for the cover.
*300 Miami -3
Miami is one of the most under rated teams in college football this year. Miami should be able to stop the run and force Tyrod Taylor into some bad decisions. And unlike Nebraska, Miami will actually be able to score touchdowns, and plenty of them! The Hokies defense is good, but the Miami offense wil prove to much to handle today. The Hokies are not close to being able to play Beamer ball, and today Miami takes one more step to winning the ACC Title. Take the hurricanes laying this low number for an impressive victory today!
Street Rosenthal
*200 Illinois +14
Not one person, or analysis I have read is giving Illinois a chance today. However, the trends tell a different story! Illinois is 9-1 ATS since October 5 1985 vs Ohio state in games 1-5. Illinois is also 11-2-1 ATS in games 1-4 vs a Big 10 team and their next game is home. Ohio State is known for coming out flat against teams they are supposed to dominate. Look for a hungry and improved Illinois team to cover this spread today.
*200 LSU -12
Miss St has had a much softer schedule thus far, and this line is low because they pulled off a straight up victory over a weaker than usual Vanderbilt team last week. The Miss St spread offense will struggle against this LSU defense that has speed and the hunger to hit someone. I have several trends that support a LSU victory today. LSU is 8-0 ATS (+19.6 ppg) since September 11, 1993 on the road vs. MSST and LSU is 7-0 ATS (+21.2 ppg) since November 15, 1986 as a road favorite vs. MSST. However, MSST is 0-9 ATS Since September 12 1992 Vs LSU in games 1-4. Take LSU and feel good about a solid cover today!
*200 Rice +7.5
This game has sucker written all over it. Vanderbilt is a much weaker team than most think this year. With only 45% of the public on Rice the line has dropped over 1.5 points to 7. Rice is 11-0 ATS since October 3 1981 at home when 2 games ago they faced a big 12 team. Take Rice and the points at home today to cover this spread against a Vandy team that was beat up pretty bad in a hrad hitting contest last week.
*200 Kansas -13
The JayHawks have done what it takes to be a double digit favorite today. Last week their defense turned the corner and sent David Cutcliffes Duke Blue Devils to the sideline 8 straight times with out a score. Todd Reesing, the Kansas quarterback is completing 64% of his career passes. There was an unusual brawl on campus on this week. There are rumors that close to 10 football players could be displined this weekend, with top receiver Briscoe being one of them. I don't see that happening this weekend especially with the line staying flat at a solid 13. The League is 0-9 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 18, 2006 as a dog vs. KAN after a home game. Kansas is 16-6 ATS record in its last 22 as a home favorite. Take Kansas minus the points for the cover.
*300 Arkansas State -2
Ark St has had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Troy Trojans came out last week with a bruising win over UAB. The Red Wolves are better than the team that Troy beat by 26 in 2008. The Trojans are not as good as last season's team, and have struggled to move the ball at times. Ark St has a 3 senior that are up for player of the year honors. I love this Ark St team to inflict some revenge today on the Trojans. We will side with the public in game and take the Red Wolves for the cover.
*300 Iowa +10
Iowa does one thing well, and that is they get up for Penn State. Iowa has won 4 out of the last 5 games straight up. Yes, Iowa is rebuilding this year. However, they are still playing Penn St so all the rules are out the door today. Penn St is 0-7 ATS in games 1-4 when their next game is away and their opponents next conference game is vs the Big 10. The Penn State offense and Iowa Hawkeye defense are pretty evenly matched. This will be an exciting chess match to watch. Take Iowa for the cover today, and thank their special teams play, and ability to get the turnovers for the cover.
*300 Miami -3
Miami is one of the most under rated teams in college football this year. Miami should be able to stop the run and force Tyrod Taylor into some bad decisions. And unlike Nebraska, Miami will actually be able to score touchdowns, and plenty of them! The Hokies defense is good, but the Miami offense wil prove to much to handle today. The Hokies are not close to being able to play Beamer ball, and today Miami takes one more step to winning the ACC Title. Take the hurricanes laying this low number for an impressive victory today!
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Illinois (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Ohio State (2-1 SU and ATS)
It’s the Big Ten opener for the Illini and the Buckeyes who square off inside the Horseshoe at Columbus, the site of Illinois’ 2007 upset of then-top-ranked Ohio State.
After a season-opening 37-9 loss to regional rival Missouri as 6½-point favorites, the Illini blew out Illinois State 45-17 in Week 2 and took last week off to get ready for this one. QB Juice Williams is expected back in the lineup after straining his quadriceps against Illinois State. In his career, Williams has thrown six TD passes and just one INT against Ohio State, while adding 118 rushing yards on 25 carries.
After falling 18-15 at home to Southern Cal as a seven-point underdog, Ohio State found its offense against Toledo a week ago at Cleveland Browns Stadium, racking up 522 yards in a 38-0 win, cashing as a 22-point chalk. Sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor threw for a career-high 262 yards and three TDs and rushed for 110 yards and another score.
Illinois has lost 14 of its last 15 Big Ten openers and has dropped four straight to ranked opponents since beating the No. 1 Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus as a 15½-point ‘dog in November 2007. Ohio State has won four of the last five SU in this series (2-3 ATS), but the Illini are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Horseshoe.
Illinois is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-5 on the road and 10-23 after an ATS loss, but the Illini have cashed in six straight Big Ten road games when catching points dating to 2006.
Ohio State coach Jim Tressel has led the Buckeyes to a 6-1 ATS mark dating back to last season and 22-8 ATS record in Big Ten contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 at home, 1-6 as a home favorite and 2-6 in September.
Illinois has topped the total in seven of 11 conference games, six straight as a ‘dog and four of seven after an ATS loss, however the Illini 4-1-2 “under” in their last seven overall. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in five of six as a favorite and four of five Big Ten contests. In this series, the “over” has cashed in four of the last five in Columbus.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) TCU (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Clemson (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The 15th-ranked Horned Frogs are hoping to set themselves up as a BCS buster when they travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson in a non-conference matchup.
TCU saw fellow Mountain West Conference teams Utah and BYU fall last week in non-leage action, eliminating those squads from BCS contention, but the Horned Frogs have made some noise with two easy wins to open the season, including a 30-14 rout at Virginia as an 11-point favorite on Sept. 12. Coach Gary Patterson’s squad has topped the 200-yard rushing mark in both games this season, including 286 in last week’s 56-21 home rout of Texas State in a non-lined game.
After allowing 301 rushing yards in a 30-27 loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 10 (covering as a five-point road underdog), the Tigers defense came to play last week in limiting Boston College to 29 rushing yards in a 25-7 ACC win as nine-point home favorites. Richard Jackson kicked a school record-tying six field goals, and tailback C.J. Spiller had a 77-yard punt return for a TD as part of 219 all-purpose yards before leaving with a foot injury.
TCU is on positive ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action and 7-3-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tigers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-0 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
TCU has topped the total in five of seven overall and four of five in September. However, it’s been nothing but “unders” for Clemson, including 12-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 11-2 as a favorite and 7-2 as a home favorite.
This is the first matchup between these two schools since Clemson got a 3-0 win in Death Valley back in 1965.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) LSU (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
The Tigers head to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for an SEC showdown with Mississippi State in the first of a tough three-game stretch for LSU that includes a visit to Georgia and a home game against top-ranked Florida.
LSU has opened the season with three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 31-3 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette last weekend, narrowly covering as a 27-point chalk. Sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson threw for just 165 yards with two TDs and one INT. On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers’ defense forced three turnovers against the Ragin’ Cajuns and it hasn’t allowed a TD in six quarters.
Mississippi State scored a 15-3 SEC upset victory last weekend at Vanderbilt as an 8½-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs held Vandy to just 157 total yards, including 33 rushing. The QB tandem of senior Tyson Lee and sophomore Chris Relf worked well last weekend with Lee throwing for 216 yards and a TD and running for a 22-yard score to seal the win. Relf has run for 178 yards this season and thrown for 167 with three TDs and two INTs.
The Tigers beaten Mississippi State nine straight times dating to 1999, including last year’s 34-24 victory, but they failed as 24-point home favorites. Still, LSU is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 7-0 ATS in the last seven in Starkville. The last time the Tigers visited Starkville they blanked the ‘Dogs 45-0 as 19-point favorites in 2007.
LSU is just 2-8 ATS dating back to last season and is on further pointspread slides of 7-20-1 in SEC contests, 2-6 in September games, 1-6 as a favorite and 2-5 against teams with winning records.
First-year coach Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 7-3 in September and 5-0 as a home ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 against teams with winning records and 2-5 in SEC contests.
LSU is on several “over” runs, including 7-2 on the road, 12-4 in SEC games, 6-1 as a road favorite and 4-0 following an ATS win. On the other side, it’s mostly “unders” for Mississippi State, including 13-6 overall, 6-2 at home, 6-2 in SEC action, 8-2 after an ATS win and 4-1 as a home pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in each of the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU and OVER
Arkansas (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (3) Alabama (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Alabama goes after its fourth straight double-digit win to begin the season when it hosts the Razorbacks in an SEC West clash.
Arkansas jumped out to a 21-10 lead against Georgia last week, but a series of bad penalties and defensive mistakes allowed the Bulldogs to get back in the game and the Razorbacks fell 52-41 as a 2½-point home favorite. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett had a record-setting night (480 yards, 5 TDs, no INTs), but his running game contributed just 77 yards and the Hogs’ defense surrendered 530 yards.
Alabama followed up an impressive 34-24 season-opening victory over Virginia Tech in Atlanta with back-to-back blowout home wins over Sun Belt Conference pushovers Florida International (40-14 as a 33½-point favorite) and North Texas (53-7 as a 39½-point chalk). Take away a 31-20 loss to Florida in last year’s SEC Championship game followed by a 31-17 Sugar Bowl loss to undefeated Utah, and the Crimson Tide have won 15 consecutive regular-season games since the start of 2008.
Both these teams field explosive offenses, with Arkansas putting up 44.5 points and 538 yards through three games and Alabama netting 42.3 points and 512.7 yards per outing. The Tide (15 ppg, 185.3 ypg) rate a big edge defensively over the Razorbacks (31 ppg, 367.5 ypg).
The Crimson Tide went to Arkansas last year and pummeled the Razorbacks 49-14 as an eight-point road chalk. Alabama has won two in a row and three of four in this rivalry, but Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Also, the visitor has cashed in each of the last four meetings and six of the last seven, and the Hogs have covered the number in each of their last three trips to Tuscaloosa.
The Razorbacks are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 as an underdog, 14-6 as a double-digit pup, 7-3 when catching points in SEC road games and 4-1 versus winning teams. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight lined September contests.
Alabama has won 17 straight SEC openers, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Nick Saban’s squad also sports ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in SEC play, 5-1 in September and 4-1 as a double-digit chalk. However, the Tide are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 SEC home games.
Arkansas carries “over” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 in SEC action and 9-0 in September. The over is also 4-0 in Alabama’s last four overall, 4-0 in its last four home contests and 6-0 in its last six in September. Lastly, the past three Arkansas-Alabama tussles have hurdled the posted total, and the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings (4-1 in Tuscaloosa).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
(1) Florida (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
After a somewhat lackluster performance against hated Tennessee in their SEC opener, the top-ranked Gators now hit the road for the first time this year when they battle unbeaten Kentucky.
Florida went off as a 30-point favorite against the Volunteers last week, but never threatened to cover that number in a 23-13 victory. The Gators, who spanked their first two opponents (Charleston Southern and Troy) by a combined score of 118-9, were held to just 323 total yards (208 rushing) and QB Tim Tebow was a pedestrian 14-for-19 for 115 yards with one INT and one lost fumble. However, the defense limited Tennessee’s inept offense to 210 yards.
Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 in a row, all by double digits, but it had a 10-0 ATS run halted with last week’s non-cover against Tennessee.
The Wildcats followed up a 42-0 rout of Miami (Ohio) as a 15-point road favorite with last week’s 31-27 come-from-behind win over instate rival Louisville, falling way short as a 13½-point home favorite. Kentucky got outgained (378-346) in the win and committed three turnovers, yet still won its third in a row going back to last year’s six-point upset win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl.
The Gators have won 22 straight meetings with Kentucky, including last year’s 63-5 thrashing as a 25-point home chalk. Florida has cashed in the last two meetings after Kentucky went on a 5-0 ATS spree in this rivalry from 2002-2006, all as a double-digit favorite.
In addition to its 10-1 ATS roll overall, Florida is on further pointspread tears of 20-7 as a favorite, 8-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 as a double-digit favorite, 7-1 in SEC action and 16-5 against teams with a winning record. However, the Gators have failed to cash in five of seven in September, and they’re 0-7 ATS the last seven years the week after facing Tennessee.
Kentucky is on ATS runs of 10-4 as a home underdog, 19-7 in September, 4-1 as a double-digit ‘dog and 4-0 when catching more than 10 points at home. However, the ‘Cats are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 at home overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC home games.
Florida carries “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 11-4 in conference play, 5-1 as a favorite of 10 points or more and 20-8 when playing on grass. Similarly, Kentucky is on “over” streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a home pup. Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(21) Georgia (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Arizona State (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Arizona State treks to Athens, Ga., with redemption in mind when it meets up with the Bulldogs in a non-conference matchup for the second straight year.
The Sun Devils haven’t been tested in their first two games against inferior foes Idaho State (50-3 home win in a non-lined game) and Louisiana-Monroe (38-14 as a 21-point home chalk). Going back to last November, ASU is on a 5-1 SU run (3-2 ATS in lined contests), but four of those five wins came at home.
Georgia climbed out of an early 21-10 hole at SEC rival Arkansas last Saturday and earned a 52-41 victory as a 2½-point road pup. QB Joe Cox threw for 375 yards and five TD passes (one INT) as the Dawgs gained 530 total yards and overcame three turnovers to win. Since a 24-10 season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, the Bulldogs have scored 91 points in their last two games (Arkansas and South Carolina), but the defense has yielded 78.
The Bulldogs went to Tempe, Ariz., 53 weeks ago as the top-ranked team in the country and they pummeled Arizona State 27-10, easily covering as a seven-point road chalk.
The Sun Devils went 1-4 SU on the road last year (all in Pac-10 action), with the lone win coming against winless Washington 39-19 as a 13-point favorite. However, including that blowout victory, ASU did cash in three of its last four away from home in 2008, and it is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 lined September games. Otherwise, though, the Sun Devils are in ATS funks of 6-11 overall, 1-4 in non-conference play and 2-8 as an underdog.
Georgia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 non-league games, but despite last week’s cover at Arkansas, Mark Richt’s squad is still in ATS ruts of 3-9 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-7 anywhere when laying points.
ASU carries nothing put “under” trends into this game, including 19-8 overall, 9-1 on the highway, 7-2 in non-league action, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-0-2 as a double-digit pup. The under is also 24-10 in Georgia’s last 34 in September, and last year’s meeting between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
(6) California (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at Oregon (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The marquee matchup of the week in Pac-10 action comes from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks host sixth-ranked Cal and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best.
Best rushed for 135 yards and scored all five touchdowns at Minnesota last week as Cal fended of the feisty Gophers 35-21, barely covering as a 13½-point road favorite. Best is averaging 137 rushing yards per game (7.8 per carry) and has eight touchdowns, with the Bears netting 48.7 points and 488 total yards per game in jumping out to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years.
Oregon followed up a narrow 38-36 home win (non-cover) over Purdue with last week’s 31-24 victory over Utah as a five-point home favorite, cashing for the first time this season while snapping the Utes’ 16-game winning streak (the longest in the nation). The Ducks won despite committing four turnovers (three lost fumbles) and despite another terrible passing day by QB Jeremiah Masoli (4-for-16, 95 yards, no TD passes). Threw three games, Masoli is completing just 45.3 percent of his throws for a total of 379 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Cal beat Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite in last year’s sloppy game, which was played in a heavy rainstorm that helped contribute to eight turnovers. The Bears have won and covered three in a row in this rivalry, including a 31-24 upset as a 6½-point favorite in 2007 that ended Cal’s seven-game losing skid at Autzen Stadium, with the Bears forcing four turnovers in that win. The host is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), and the chalk has cashed in three of the last four.
Although it narrowly got the cash at Minnesota, Cal remains in ATS funks of 4-10 on the highway and 3-8 as a road favorite since 2006. On the positive side, the Bears are on pointspread surges of 5-1 overall, 7-1 as a favorite, 10-1 on artificial turf, 4-0 in September and 17-4 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Ducks are on ATS runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0 after a SU win and 8-3 as a home pup.
Six of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed under the total, including four in a row at Autzen. However, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for Oregon overall, 6-0-1 for Oregon at home, 4-1 for Oregon in Pac-10 play, 18-5-2 for Oregon in September, 6-1 for Cal overall, 5-1 for Cal on the road, 5-2 for Cal in the Pac-10 and 5-1 for Cal in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) North Carolina (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-1, 0-2 ATS)
Georgia Tech looks to bounce back from a humbling loss at Miami, Fla., when it returns home to face the 22nd-ranked Tar Heels in an ACC Coastal Division clash at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
One year after gashing Miami for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 blowout home win, the Yellow Jackets were stymied by the Hurricanes last Thursday in South Beach, getting outgained 454-228 overall and 184-95 on the ground en route to a 33-17 loss as a 4½-point road underdog. Georgia Tech, which tumbled out of the Top 25 with the defeat, is just 5-4 SU in its last nine games (including last year’s 21-point loss at North Carolina), and it has failed to cover in three straight lined outings.
North Carolina followed up a lucky, last-minute 12-10 win at Connecticut with last week’s 31-17 rout of East Carolina, covering as an 8½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels, who are 3-0 for the first time since starting 8-0 in 1997, dominated the contest from a yardage perspective, finishing with 433 yards (148 rushing) while limiting the Pirates to 247 total yards (55 rushing).
North Carolina snapped a three-game losing skid to Georgia Tech with last November’s 28-7 victory as a 5½-point home favorite, winning despite getting outgained 423-314. The Tar Heels had also cashed in the previous four meetings, all as an underdog, including going 2-0 ATS in their last two visits to Atlanta.
North Carolina is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under coach Butch Davis, including 3-0 ATS last season. Additionally, the Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog of three points or less, including 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road pup in that price range.
Since coach Paul Johnson took over the program prior to the start of the 2008 season, the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS following an outright loss and 3-1 ATS as a home chalk. However, Georgia Tech is in pointspread slumps of 2-5-1 overall, 3-7-1 at home, 1-4-1 in ACC action, 3-8-2 as a home chalk and 1-6-1 when laying three points or less.
The over is 4-1 in UNC’s last five overall, 5-0 in its last five as an underdog, 5-0 in Ga-Tech’s last five after a SU defeat, 7-3 in Ga-Tech’s last 10 at home and 4-0 in the last four series meetings between these schools in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
(24) Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Stanford (2-1 SU and ATS)
Fresh off their monster upset victory over USC, the Huskies now try to guard against a letdown when they travel down the west coast for a Pac-10 meeting with Stanford.
Washington got a 25-yard field goal from Erik Folk with three seconds remaining last Saturday to stun the Trojans 16-13 as a 19½-point home underdog. The Huskies, who snapped a 15-game losing skid the previous week with a home win over lowly Idaho, prevailed despite getting outgained 369-293, including 250-56 on the ground. However, they forced three turnovers and committed none, and the defense didn’t permit USC to convert a single third-down opportunity (0-for-10).
The Cardinal rebounded from a disappointing, last-second 24-17 loss at Wake Forest with an emphatic 42-17 victory over San Jose State last week, cashing as an 18-point home chalk. Stanford is averaging 32.7 ppg and has been equally successful on the ground (204.7 rushing ypg) and through the air (213.3 passing ypg). QB Andrew Luck is completing 62.3 percent of his throws for 639 yards, four TDs and two INTs.
The visitor has owned this rivalry lately, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including the Cardinal’s 35-28 win at Washington as a three-point underdog exactly one year ago. The ‘dog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Despite a 2-1 ATS start to this season, the Huskies remain on a bevy of ATS declines, including 27-55-4 overall, 0-5 on the road, 23-53-2 in Pac-10 play, 7-20 after a spread-cover, 2-8 as an underdog (but 2-0 this year) and 1-6 versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Stanford is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in September, 4-1 in conference and 9-2-1 as a home chalk. Also, the Cardinal have cashed in seven straight games at Stanford Stadium.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Washington in September, 6-0 for Washington after a spread-cover, 6-2-1 for Washington as a road underdog and 5-2 for Stanford overall. However, the under is 40-18-1 in the Cardinal’s last 59 Pac-10 games and 5-2 in their last seven as a favorite, while four of the last five clashes in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
(9) Miami, Fla. (2-0 SU and ATS) at (11) Virginia Tech (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
Having vaulted back into the Top 10 following two impressive ACC victories, Miami now heads to Blacksburg for another difficult test against the 11th-ranked Hokies in a Coastal Division showdown.
Ten days after hanging on for a 38-34 win at Florida State on Labor Day, the Hurricanes welcomed Georgia Tech to South Beach on Thursday and pummeled the Yellow Jackets 33-17 as a 4½-point home favorite. After getting torched for 472 rushing yards in an 18-point loss at Georgia Tech last year, the Hurricanes defense got some revenge, limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 228 total yards (95 rushing). Miami has opened the season with consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time since 1988.
Miami QB Jacory Harris had another outstanding performance versus Ga-Tech, going 20-for-25 for 270 yards with three TDs and no picks. For the season, Harris is completing 69.5 percent of his throws for 656 yards with five TDs and two INTs.
Virginia Tech got a miracle 16-15 victory over Nebraska in a non-conference home game a week ago, as Tyrod Taylor completed an 11-yard TD pass with 21 seconds to play after connecting on a long bomb to set up the winning score. The Hokies, who failed to cover as a five-point home favorite, got outgained 343-278 – including 207-86 on the ground – but the defense kept the Cornhuskers out of the end zone, yielding just five field goals ranging from 19 to 40 yards.
The multidimensional Taylor is completing just 47.6 percent of his passes for 444 yards with three TDs and one INT, and he’s only rushed for 10 yards (on 26 carries) with no scores after tallying 1,266 yards and 13 scores on the ground his first two seasons.
Miami snapped a two-game losing skid to the Hokies in South Beach last season, eking out a 16-14 victory. However, Virginia Tech covered as a four-point road underdog, improving to 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings (3-0 ATS in the last three). During this eight-year stretch, the underdog is 6-2 ATS. Also, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Blacksburg.
The Hurricanes are on spread-covering sprees of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in September and 5-2 against winning teams, but despite last week’s blowout of Georgia Tech, they’re still only 21-43-1 ATS in their last 65 as a favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 after a spread-cover.
Virginia Tech has now failed to cover in nine of its last 12 in September, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread surges of 13-5 as an underdog, 6-0 as a home pup, 27-11 in ACC action and 5-1 against winning teams.
The under is 5-1 in the last six years in this series, and Virginia Tech is on “under” runs of 14-4 at home, 4-1 in ACC action and 5-0 as a home underdog. Miami carries “under” trends of 14-6 in September and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
Texas Tech (2-1, 2-0 ATS at (17) Houston (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Texas Tech hits the highway within the Lone Star State for the second straight week, this time looking to upend the upstart Cougars.
The Red Raiders were able to hang with Big 12 South rival Texas all night last Saturday, but still came up short 34-24, covering easily as an 18-point road underdog. Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts had a coming-out party, going 46-for-62 for 420 yards and three TD passes, but he had no running game behind him (minus-6 yards on 18 carries), and the offense committed three turnovers. The defense, though, forced two fumbles and held the Longhorns to just 340 total yards.
Houston took last week off after its stunning 45-35 upset victory over then-No. 5 Oklahoma State as a 16-point home underdog. The Cougars racked up 512 total yards in the victory, with QB Case Keenum leading the way (32-for-46, 366 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). Houston has won three in a row and six of seven going back to the beginning of last November (4-2 ATS in lined action).
Both teams feature explosive passing attacks. Potts (69.5 percent) has already thrown for 1,281 yards and 12 TDs (4 INTs), while Keenum through two games is connecting on 72.4 percent of his throws for 725 yards with seven scoring strikes against one pick.
These teams met every year as members of the Southwest Conference up until 1995, but haven’t squared off since. Texas Tech won the last five battles from 1991-95, scoring 52, 44, 58, 34 and 38 points while going 4-1 ATS.
The Red Raiders are on ATS runs of 4-1-1 in September, 5-2-1 against Conference USA opponents and 38-14 after a SU defeat. Houston is on pointspread rolls of 4-1 at home and 4-1 against winning teams, but if the Cougars go off as a favorite, note that they’re 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when laying points, while Texas Tech is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of less than three points.
It’s all “overs” for both these squads, with Texas Tech on high-scoring surges of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in non-conference play and 27-9 after an ATS win. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Houston’s last five overall, 6-1 in its last seven in September and 4-0 in its last four versus Big 12 competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Iowa (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at (5) Penn State (3-0, 0-3 ATS)
Iowa and Penn State put their perfect 2009 records on the line under the lights in Happy Valley, with the host Nittany Lions eager to exact revenge against the only opponent to beat them last season.
The Hawkeyes have bounced back nicely after a shaky 17-16 season-opening home win over Northern Iowa, crushing Iowa State (35-3 as a 6½-point road favorite) and Arizona (27-17 as a 3½-point home chalk) the last two weeks. Going back to its shocking 24-23 upset of Penn State at home last Nov. 8, Iowa has won seven in a row, allowing 17 points or less in the last six. Moreover, Kirk Ferentz’s squad is 9-1 in its last 10 (7-2 ATS in lined games), the only blemish being a three-point setback at Illinois.
Penn State feasted on three non-conference cupcakes leading up to this contest, blasting Akron (31-7), Syracuse (28-7) and Temple (31-6). However, the Nittany Lions were favored by 29½, 28½, and 29½ points in the three contests, falling short of cashing in each. Going back to the Iowa loss, Joe Paterno’s team has covered just once in its last seven games.
Although both offenses have done some damage this year – Iowa is averaging 26.3 points and 364 total yards per game; Penn State is putting up 30 points and 397.3 yards per outing – the strength for each team is on defense. The Nittany Lions have held their three opponents to 20 total points and 212.3 yards per game (46.3 rushing ypg), while Iowa is surrendering 12 points and 303.3 yards per contest (but 140.7 rushing ypg).
Penn State went to Iowa City last season with a 9-0 record and a No. 2 ranking and appeared a cinch to earn a bid to the BCS Championship Game. However, the Hawkeyes rebounded from a 23-14 fourth-quarter deficit, getting a 31-yard field goal with one second remaining to steal a 24-23 victory as a 7½-point home underdog, ending the Nittany Lions’ national championship hopes.
Last year’s win was hardly a fluke for Iowa, which is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Penn State, and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips in Happy Valley, covering by an average of 13 points per game. The ‘dog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 battles, with five outright upsets.
Iowa is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 14-5 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. In fact, since Ferentz took over the program in 2006, the Hawkeyes are 29-18 ATS when catching points.
The Nittany Lions have failed to cover in five straight Big Ten home games when laying seven points or more and are mired in further ATS slumps of 0-4 overall, 1-4 at Beaver Stadium, 0-4 in September, 1-5 as a favorite and 5-12-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
Iowa is riding “under” streaks of 18-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 12-4-1 after a SU win, 14-3 in September, 8-2-1 as an underdog and 11-1-1 as a road pup. Similarly, the under is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five at home and 4-1 in its last five in September. Lastly, the past two meetings in this rivalry in Happy Valley stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (91-62) at N.Y. Yankees (98-56)
The Yankees look to move another step closer to the A.L. East crown – and 100 victories – when they send ace CC Sabathia (18-7, 3.31 ERA) to the hill, while the Red Sox counter with Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-5, 6.80).
New York, which has already clinched a playoff berth, cruised to a 9-5 victory in Friday’s series opener to increase its divisional lead over Boston to 6½ games with nine days remaining in the regular season. The Red Sox continue to have a healthy eight-game edge on the Rangers in the wild-card race.
The Red Sox, who are 5-3 on their current 10-game road trip, are on positive runs of 21-9 overall, 44-20 versus the A.L. East and 6-2 against winning clubs, but they’re 6-14 in their last 20 as an underdog and 2-12 in their last 14 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Yanks have won three in a row and are on incredible runs of 60-24 overall, 47-16 at home, 37-14 versus right-handed starters and 38-14 against divisional foes.
The Red Sox won the first seven meetings in this rivalry this season, but the Yankees have come back to take seven of the last eight, including five in a row in the Bronx by the combined score of 34-13.
After sitting out for three months with a shoulder injury, Matsuzaka has come back strong, posting easily his best two starts of the season. First, he held the Angels scoreless over six innings of a 4-1 win on Sept. 15, then earned a 9-3 victory at Baltimore on Sunday, yielding three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. He’s 2-1 with a 7.08 ERA in five road starts this year.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, Boston is on streaks of 36-15 overall, 17-4 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog, 12-4 against the A.L. East and 12-4 versus teams with a winning record. Also, he’s 3-2 with a bloated 6.35 ERA in six career starts versus New York, the most recent outing coming almost exactly one year ago.
Sabathia has been dominant over his last nine starts. Beginning with a 5-0 home win over Boston on Aug. 8, he’s gone 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA, and he’s won his last eight decisions and the Yankees are 10-0 behind the hefty lefty since the beginning of August. All 10 of those wins have come by multiple runs, including a 13-3 rout of Baltimore on Sept. 13 and a 10-1 win at Seattle in his last outing a week ago tonight.
Behind Sabathia, New York is on runs of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 5-0 versus the A.L. East and 13-3 as a favorite. He’s 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 home outings this year but only 4-5 with 3.62 ERA in 10 career regular-season starts against Boston (2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts this year vs. the BoSox).
For Boston, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall (all on the road), 13-5-1 in A.L. East play and 7-3-1 versus lefty starters. However, the under is 13-5-1 in the team’s last 19 on Saturday, 20-7-1 in its last 28 as an underdog and 5-2-1 with Dice-K on the mound. New York is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 in divisional games, 6-2 with Sabathia starting and 3-1-1 on Saturday, but the under is 4-1-1 in Sabathia’s last six home efforts. Finally, the over has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Illinois (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Ohio State (2-1 SU and ATS)
It’s the Big Ten opener for the Illini and the Buckeyes who square off inside the Horseshoe at Columbus, the site of Illinois’ 2007 upset of then-top-ranked Ohio State.
After a season-opening 37-9 loss to regional rival Missouri as 6½-point favorites, the Illini blew out Illinois State 45-17 in Week 2 and took last week off to get ready for this one. QB Juice Williams is expected back in the lineup after straining his quadriceps against Illinois State. In his career, Williams has thrown six TD passes and just one INT against Ohio State, while adding 118 rushing yards on 25 carries.
After falling 18-15 at home to Southern Cal as a seven-point underdog, Ohio State found its offense against Toledo a week ago at Cleveland Browns Stadium, racking up 522 yards in a 38-0 win, cashing as a 22-point chalk. Sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor threw for a career-high 262 yards and three TDs and rushed for 110 yards and another score.
Illinois has lost 14 of its last 15 Big Ten openers and has dropped four straight to ranked opponents since beating the No. 1 Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus as a 15½-point ‘dog in November 2007. Ohio State has won four of the last five SU in this series (2-3 ATS), but the Illini are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Horseshoe.
Illinois is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-5 on the road and 10-23 after an ATS loss, but the Illini have cashed in six straight Big Ten road games when catching points dating to 2006.
Ohio State coach Jim Tressel has led the Buckeyes to a 6-1 ATS mark dating back to last season and 22-8 ATS record in Big Ten contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 at home, 1-6 as a home favorite and 2-6 in September.
Illinois has topped the total in seven of 11 conference games, six straight as a ‘dog and four of seven after an ATS loss, however the Illini 4-1-2 “under” in their last seven overall. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in five of six as a favorite and four of five Big Ten contests. In this series, the “over” has cashed in four of the last five in Columbus.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) TCU (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Clemson (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The 15th-ranked Horned Frogs are hoping to set themselves up as a BCS buster when they travel to Death Valley to take on Clemson in a non-conference matchup.
TCU saw fellow Mountain West Conference teams Utah and BYU fall last week in non-leage action, eliminating those squads from BCS contention, but the Horned Frogs have made some noise with two easy wins to open the season, including a 30-14 rout at Virginia as an 11-point favorite on Sept. 12. Coach Gary Patterson’s squad has topped the 200-yard rushing mark in both games this season, including 286 in last week’s 56-21 home rout of Texas State in a non-lined game.
After allowing 301 rushing yards in a 30-27 loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 10 (covering as a five-point road underdog), the Tigers defense came to play last week in limiting Boston College to 29 rushing yards in a 25-7 ACC win as nine-point home favorites. Richard Jackson kicked a school record-tying six field goals, and tailback C.J. Spiller had a 77-yard punt return for a TD as part of 219 all-purpose yards before leaving with a foot injury.
TCU is on positive ATS streaks of 13-5 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action and 7-3-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tigers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, but otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-0 at home and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
TCU has topped the total in five of seven overall and four of five in September. However, it’s been nothing but “unders” for Clemson, including 12-5 overall, 8-2 at home, 11-2 as a favorite and 7-2 as a home favorite.
This is the first matchup between these two schools since Clemson got a 3-0 win in Death Valley back in 1965.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) LSU (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Mississippi State (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
The Tigers head to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., for an SEC showdown with Mississippi State in the first of a tough three-game stretch for LSU that includes a visit to Georgia and a home game against top-ranked Florida.
LSU has opened the season with three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 31-3 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette last weekend, narrowly covering as a 27-point chalk. Sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson threw for just 165 yards with two TDs and one INT. On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers’ defense forced three turnovers against the Ragin’ Cajuns and it hasn’t allowed a TD in six quarters.
Mississippi State scored a 15-3 SEC upset victory last weekend at Vanderbilt as an 8½-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs held Vandy to just 157 total yards, including 33 rushing. The QB tandem of senior Tyson Lee and sophomore Chris Relf worked well last weekend with Lee throwing for 216 yards and a TD and running for a 22-yard score to seal the win. Relf has run for 178 yards this season and thrown for 167 with three TDs and two INTs.
The Tigers beaten Mississippi State nine straight times dating to 1999, including last year’s 34-24 victory, but they failed as 24-point home favorites. Still, LSU is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 7-0 ATS in the last seven in Starkville. The last time the Tigers visited Starkville they blanked the ‘Dogs 45-0 as 19-point favorites in 2007.
LSU is just 2-8 ATS dating back to last season and is on further pointspread slides of 7-20-1 in SEC contests, 2-6 in September games, 1-6 as a favorite and 2-5 against teams with winning records.
First-year coach Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 7-3 in September and 5-0 as a home ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 against teams with winning records and 2-5 in SEC contests.
LSU is on several “over” runs, including 7-2 on the road, 12-4 in SEC games, 6-1 as a road favorite and 4-0 following an ATS win. On the other side, it’s mostly “unders” for Mississippi State, including 13-6 overall, 6-2 at home, 6-2 in SEC action, 8-2 after an ATS win and 4-1 as a home pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in each of the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU and OVER
Arkansas (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (3) Alabama (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Alabama goes after its fourth straight double-digit win to begin the season when it hosts the Razorbacks in an SEC West clash.
Arkansas jumped out to a 21-10 lead against Georgia last week, but a series of bad penalties and defensive mistakes allowed the Bulldogs to get back in the game and the Razorbacks fell 52-41 as a 2½-point home favorite. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett had a record-setting night (480 yards, 5 TDs, no INTs), but his running game contributed just 77 yards and the Hogs’ defense surrendered 530 yards.
Alabama followed up an impressive 34-24 season-opening victory over Virginia Tech in Atlanta with back-to-back blowout home wins over Sun Belt Conference pushovers Florida International (40-14 as a 33½-point favorite) and North Texas (53-7 as a 39½-point chalk). Take away a 31-20 loss to Florida in last year’s SEC Championship game followed by a 31-17 Sugar Bowl loss to undefeated Utah, and the Crimson Tide have won 15 consecutive regular-season games since the start of 2008.
Both these teams field explosive offenses, with Arkansas putting up 44.5 points and 538 yards through three games and Alabama netting 42.3 points and 512.7 yards per outing. The Tide (15 ppg, 185.3 ypg) rate a big edge defensively over the Razorbacks (31 ppg, 367.5 ypg).
The Crimson Tide went to Arkansas last year and pummeled the Razorbacks 49-14 as an eight-point road chalk. Alabama has won two in a row and three of four in this rivalry, but Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Also, the visitor has cashed in each of the last four meetings and six of the last seven, and the Hogs have covered the number in each of their last three trips to Tuscaloosa.
The Razorbacks are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 as an underdog, 14-6 as a double-digit pup, 7-3 when catching points in SEC road games and 4-1 versus winning teams. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight lined September contests.
Alabama has won 17 straight SEC openers, going 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Nick Saban’s squad also sports ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in SEC play, 5-1 in September and 4-1 as a double-digit chalk. However, the Tide are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 SEC home games.
Arkansas carries “over” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 in SEC action and 9-0 in September. The over is also 4-0 in Alabama’s last four overall, 4-0 in its last four home contests and 6-0 in its last six in September. Lastly, the past three Arkansas-Alabama tussles have hurdled the posted total, and the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings (4-1 in Tuscaloosa).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
(1) Florida (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Kentucky (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
After a somewhat lackluster performance against hated Tennessee in their SEC opener, the top-ranked Gators now hit the road for the first time this year when they battle unbeaten Kentucky.
Florida went off as a 30-point favorite against the Volunteers last week, but never threatened to cover that number in a 23-13 victory. The Gators, who spanked their first two opponents (Charleston Southern and Troy) by a combined score of 118-9, were held to just 323 total yards (208 rushing) and QB Tim Tebow was a pedestrian 14-for-19 for 115 yards with one INT and one lost fumble. However, the defense limited Tennessee’s inept offense to 210 yards.
Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 in a row, all by double digits, but it had a 10-0 ATS run halted with last week’s non-cover against Tennessee.
The Wildcats followed up a 42-0 rout of Miami (Ohio) as a 15-point road favorite with last week’s 31-27 come-from-behind win over instate rival Louisville, falling way short as a 13½-point home favorite. Kentucky got outgained (378-346) in the win and committed three turnovers, yet still won its third in a row going back to last year’s six-point upset win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl.
The Gators have won 22 straight meetings with Kentucky, including last year’s 63-5 thrashing as a 25-point home chalk. Florida has cashed in the last two meetings after Kentucky went on a 5-0 ATS spree in this rivalry from 2002-2006, all as a double-digit favorite.
In addition to its 10-1 ATS roll overall, Florida is on further pointspread tears of 20-7 as a favorite, 8-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 as a double-digit favorite, 7-1 in SEC action and 16-5 against teams with a winning record. However, the Gators have failed to cash in five of seven in September, and they’re 0-7 ATS the last seven years the week after facing Tennessee.
Kentucky is on ATS runs of 10-4 as a home underdog, 19-7 in September, 4-1 as a double-digit ‘dog and 4-0 when catching more than 10 points at home. However, the ‘Cats are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 at home overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC home games.
Florida carries “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 11-4 in conference play, 5-1 as a favorite of 10 points or more and 20-8 when playing on grass. Similarly, Kentucky is on “over” streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a home pup. Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(21) Georgia (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Arizona State (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Arizona State treks to Athens, Ga., with redemption in mind when it meets up with the Bulldogs in a non-conference matchup for the second straight year.
The Sun Devils haven’t been tested in their first two games against inferior foes Idaho State (50-3 home win in a non-lined game) and Louisiana-Monroe (38-14 as a 21-point home chalk). Going back to last November, ASU is on a 5-1 SU run (3-2 ATS in lined contests), but four of those five wins came at home.
Georgia climbed out of an early 21-10 hole at SEC rival Arkansas last Saturday and earned a 52-41 victory as a 2½-point road pup. QB Joe Cox threw for 375 yards and five TD passes (one INT) as the Dawgs gained 530 total yards and overcame three turnovers to win. Since a 24-10 season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, the Bulldogs have scored 91 points in their last two games (Arkansas and South Carolina), but the defense has yielded 78.
The Bulldogs went to Tempe, Ariz., 53 weeks ago as the top-ranked team in the country and they pummeled Arizona State 27-10, easily covering as a seven-point road chalk.
The Sun Devils went 1-4 SU on the road last year (all in Pac-10 action), with the lone win coming against winless Washington 39-19 as a 13-point favorite. However, including that blowout victory, ASU did cash in three of its last four away from home in 2008, and it is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 lined September games. Otherwise, though, the Sun Devils are in ATS funks of 6-11 overall, 1-4 in non-conference play and 2-8 as an underdog.
Georgia is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 non-league games, but despite last week’s cover at Arkansas, Mark Richt’s squad is still in ATS ruts of 3-9 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-7 anywhere when laying points.
ASU carries nothing put “under” trends into this game, including 19-8 overall, 9-1 on the highway, 7-2 in non-league action, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-0-2 as a double-digit pup. The under is also 24-10 in Georgia’s last 34 in September, and last year’s meeting between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER
(6) California (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at Oregon (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The marquee matchup of the week in Pac-10 action comes from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., where the Ducks host sixth-ranked Cal and Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best.
Best rushed for 135 yards and scored all five touchdowns at Minnesota last week as Cal fended of the feisty Gophers 35-21, barely covering as a 13½-point road favorite. Best is averaging 137 rushing yards per game (7.8 per carry) and has eight touchdowns, with the Bears netting 48.7 points and 488 total yards per game in jumping out to a 3-0 start for the second time in three years.
Oregon followed up a narrow 38-36 home win (non-cover) over Purdue with last week’s 31-24 victory over Utah as a five-point home favorite, cashing for the first time this season while snapping the Utes’ 16-game winning streak (the longest in the nation). The Ducks won despite committing four turnovers (three lost fumbles) and despite another terrible passing day by QB Jeremiah Masoli (4-for-16, 95 yards, no TD passes). Threw three games, Masoli is completing just 45.3 percent of his throws for a total of 379 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Cal beat Oregon 26-16 as a 2½-point home favorite in last year’s sloppy game, which was played in a heavy rainstorm that helped contribute to eight turnovers. The Bears have won and covered three in a row in this rivalry, including a 31-24 upset as a 6½-point favorite in 2007 that ended Cal’s seven-game losing skid at Autzen Stadium, with the Bears forcing four turnovers in that win. The host is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), and the chalk has cashed in three of the last four.
Although it narrowly got the cash at Minnesota, Cal remains in ATS funks of 4-10 on the highway and 3-8 as a road favorite since 2006. On the positive side, the Bears are on pointspread surges of 5-1 overall, 7-1 as a favorite, 10-1 on artificial turf, 4-0 in September and 17-4 when laying between 3½ and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Ducks are on ATS runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0 after a SU win and 8-3 as a home pup.
Six of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed under the total, including four in a row at Autzen. However, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for Oregon overall, 6-0-1 for Oregon at home, 4-1 for Oregon in Pac-10 play, 18-5-2 for Oregon in September, 6-1 for Cal overall, 5-1 for Cal on the road, 5-2 for Cal in the Pac-10 and 5-1 for Cal in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) North Carolina (3-0, 1-1 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-1, 0-2 ATS)
Georgia Tech looks to bounce back from a humbling loss at Miami, Fla., when it returns home to face the 22nd-ranked Tar Heels in an ACC Coastal Division clash at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
One year after gashing Miami for 472 rushing yards in a 41-23 blowout home win, the Yellow Jackets were stymied by the Hurricanes last Thursday in South Beach, getting outgained 454-228 overall and 184-95 on the ground en route to a 33-17 loss as a 4½-point road underdog. Georgia Tech, which tumbled out of the Top 25 with the defeat, is just 5-4 SU in its last nine games (including last year’s 21-point loss at North Carolina), and it has failed to cover in three straight lined outings.
North Carolina followed up a lucky, last-minute 12-10 win at Connecticut with last week’s 31-17 rout of East Carolina, covering as an 8½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels, who are 3-0 for the first time since starting 8-0 in 1997, dominated the contest from a yardage perspective, finishing with 433 yards (148 rushing) while limiting the Pirates to 247 total yards (55 rushing).
North Carolina snapped a three-game losing skid to Georgia Tech with last November’s 28-7 victory as a 5½-point home favorite, winning despite getting outgained 423-314. The Tar Heels had also cashed in the previous four meetings, all as an underdog, including going 2-0 ATS in their last two visits to Atlanta.
North Carolina is 7-2 ATS as an underdog under coach Butch Davis, including 3-0 ATS last season. Additionally, the Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog of three points or less, including 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road pup in that price range.
Since coach Paul Johnson took over the program prior to the start of the 2008 season, the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS following an outright loss and 3-1 ATS as a home chalk. However, Georgia Tech is in pointspread slumps of 2-5-1 overall, 3-7-1 at home, 1-4-1 in ACC action, 3-8-2 as a home chalk and 1-6-1 when laying three points or less.
The over is 4-1 in UNC’s last five overall, 5-0 in its last five as an underdog, 5-0 in Ga-Tech’s last five after a SU defeat, 7-3 in Ga-Tech’s last 10 at home and 4-0 in the last four series meetings between these schools in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
(24) Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) at Stanford (2-1 SU and ATS)
Fresh off their monster upset victory over USC, the Huskies now try to guard against a letdown when they travel down the west coast for a Pac-10 meeting with Stanford.
Washington got a 25-yard field goal from Erik Folk with three seconds remaining last Saturday to stun the Trojans 16-13 as a 19½-point home underdog. The Huskies, who snapped a 15-game losing skid the previous week with a home win over lowly Idaho, prevailed despite getting outgained 369-293, including 250-56 on the ground. However, they forced three turnovers and committed none, and the defense didn’t permit USC to convert a single third-down opportunity (0-for-10).
The Cardinal rebounded from a disappointing, last-second 24-17 loss at Wake Forest with an emphatic 42-17 victory over San Jose State last week, cashing as an 18-point home chalk. Stanford is averaging 32.7 ppg and has been equally successful on the ground (204.7 rushing ypg) and through the air (213.3 passing ypg). QB Andrew Luck is completing 62.3 percent of his throws for 639 yards, four TDs and two INTs.
The visitor has owned this rivalry lately, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including the Cardinal’s 35-28 win at Washington as a three-point underdog exactly one year ago. The ‘dog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.
Despite a 2-1 ATS start to this season, the Huskies remain on a bevy of ATS declines, including 27-55-4 overall, 0-5 on the road, 23-53-2 in Pac-10 play, 7-20 after a spread-cover, 2-8 as an underdog (but 2-0 this year) and 1-6 versus teams with a winning record. Conversely, Stanford is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in September, 4-1 in conference and 9-2-1 as a home chalk. Also, the Cardinal have cashed in seven straight games at Stanford Stadium.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for Washington in September, 6-0 for Washington after a spread-cover, 6-2-1 for Washington as a road underdog and 5-2 for Stanford overall. However, the under is 40-18-1 in the Cardinal’s last 59 Pac-10 games and 5-2 in their last seven as a favorite, while four of the last five clashes in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
(9) Miami, Fla. (2-0 SU and ATS) at (11) Virginia Tech (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
Having vaulted back into the Top 10 following two impressive ACC victories, Miami now heads to Blacksburg for another difficult test against the 11th-ranked Hokies in a Coastal Division showdown.
Ten days after hanging on for a 38-34 win at Florida State on Labor Day, the Hurricanes welcomed Georgia Tech to South Beach on Thursday and pummeled the Yellow Jackets 33-17 as a 4½-point home favorite. After getting torched for 472 rushing yards in an 18-point loss at Georgia Tech last year, the Hurricanes defense got some revenge, limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 228 total yards (95 rushing). Miami has opened the season with consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time since 1988.
Miami QB Jacory Harris had another outstanding performance versus Ga-Tech, going 20-for-25 for 270 yards with three TDs and no picks. For the season, Harris is completing 69.5 percent of his throws for 656 yards with five TDs and two INTs.
Virginia Tech got a miracle 16-15 victory over Nebraska in a non-conference home game a week ago, as Tyrod Taylor completed an 11-yard TD pass with 21 seconds to play after connecting on a long bomb to set up the winning score. The Hokies, who failed to cover as a five-point home favorite, got outgained 343-278 – including 207-86 on the ground – but the defense kept the Cornhuskers out of the end zone, yielding just five field goals ranging from 19 to 40 yards.
The multidimensional Taylor is completing just 47.6 percent of his passes for 444 yards with three TDs and one INT, and he’s only rushed for 10 yards (on 26 carries) with no scores after tallying 1,266 yards and 13 scores on the ground his first two seasons.
Miami snapped a two-game losing skid to the Hokies in South Beach last season, eking out a 16-14 victory. However, Virginia Tech covered as a four-point road underdog, improving to 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings (3-0 ATS in the last three). During this eight-year stretch, the underdog is 6-2 ATS. Also, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Blacksburg.
The Hurricanes are on spread-covering sprees of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in September and 5-2 against winning teams, but despite last week’s blowout of Georgia Tech, they’re still only 21-43-1 ATS in their last 65 as a favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 after a spread-cover.
Virginia Tech has now failed to cover in nine of its last 12 in September, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread surges of 13-5 as an underdog, 6-0 as a home pup, 27-11 in ACC action and 5-1 against winning teams.
The under is 5-1 in the last six years in this series, and Virginia Tech is on “under” runs of 14-4 at home, 4-1 in ACC action and 5-0 as a home underdog. Miami carries “under” trends of 14-6 in September and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
Texas Tech (2-1, 2-0 ATS at (17) Houston (2-0, 1-0 ATS)
Texas Tech hits the highway within the Lone Star State for the second straight week, this time looking to upend the upstart Cougars.
The Red Raiders were able to hang with Big 12 South rival Texas all night last Saturday, but still came up short 34-24, covering easily as an 18-point road underdog. Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts had a coming-out party, going 46-for-62 for 420 yards and three TD passes, but he had no running game behind him (minus-6 yards on 18 carries), and the offense committed three turnovers. The defense, though, forced two fumbles and held the Longhorns to just 340 total yards.
Houston took last week off after its stunning 45-35 upset victory over then-No. 5 Oklahoma State as a 16-point home underdog. The Cougars racked up 512 total yards in the victory, with QB Case Keenum leading the way (32-for-46, 366 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). Houston has won three in a row and six of seven going back to the beginning of last November (4-2 ATS in lined action).
Both teams feature explosive passing attacks. Potts (69.5 percent) has already thrown for 1,281 yards and 12 TDs (4 INTs), while Keenum through two games is connecting on 72.4 percent of his throws for 725 yards with seven scoring strikes against one pick.
These teams met every year as members of the Southwest Conference up until 1995, but haven’t squared off since. Texas Tech won the last five battles from 1991-95, scoring 52, 44, 58, 34 and 38 points while going 4-1 ATS.
The Red Raiders are on ATS runs of 4-1-1 in September, 5-2-1 against Conference USA opponents and 38-14 after a SU defeat. Houston is on pointspread rolls of 4-1 at home and 4-1 against winning teams, but if the Cougars go off as a favorite, note that they’re 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when laying points, while Texas Tech is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of less than three points.
It’s all “overs” for both these squads, with Texas Tech on high-scoring surges of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in non-conference play and 27-9 after an ATS win. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Houston’s last five overall, 6-1 in its last seven in September and 4-0 in its last four versus Big 12 competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Iowa (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at (5) Penn State (3-0, 0-3 ATS)
Iowa and Penn State put their perfect 2009 records on the line under the lights in Happy Valley, with the host Nittany Lions eager to exact revenge against the only opponent to beat them last season.
The Hawkeyes have bounced back nicely after a shaky 17-16 season-opening home win over Northern Iowa, crushing Iowa State (35-3 as a 6½-point road favorite) and Arizona (27-17 as a 3½-point home chalk) the last two weeks. Going back to its shocking 24-23 upset of Penn State at home last Nov. 8, Iowa has won seven in a row, allowing 17 points or less in the last six. Moreover, Kirk Ferentz’s squad is 9-1 in its last 10 (7-2 ATS in lined games), the only blemish being a three-point setback at Illinois.
Penn State feasted on three non-conference cupcakes leading up to this contest, blasting Akron (31-7), Syracuse (28-7) and Temple (31-6). However, the Nittany Lions were favored by 29½, 28½, and 29½ points in the three contests, falling short of cashing in each. Going back to the Iowa loss, Joe Paterno’s team has covered just once in its last seven games.
Although both offenses have done some damage this year – Iowa is averaging 26.3 points and 364 total yards per game; Penn State is putting up 30 points and 397.3 yards per outing – the strength for each team is on defense. The Nittany Lions have held their three opponents to 20 total points and 212.3 yards per game (46.3 rushing ypg), while Iowa is surrendering 12 points and 303.3 yards per contest (but 140.7 rushing ypg).
Penn State went to Iowa City last season with a 9-0 record and a No. 2 ranking and appeared a cinch to earn a bid to the BCS Championship Game. However, the Hawkeyes rebounded from a 23-14 fourth-quarter deficit, getting a 31-yard field goal with one second remaining to steal a 24-23 victory as a 7½-point home underdog, ending the Nittany Lions’ national championship hopes.
Last year’s win was hardly a fluke for Iowa, which is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Penn State, and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips in Happy Valley, covering by an average of 13 points per game. The ‘dog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 battles, with five outright upsets.
Iowa is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog and 14-5 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. In fact, since Ferentz took over the program in 2006, the Hawkeyes are 29-18 ATS when catching points.
The Nittany Lions have failed to cover in five straight Big Ten home games when laying seven points or more and are mired in further ATS slumps of 0-4 overall, 1-4 at Beaver Stadium, 0-4 in September, 1-5 as a favorite and 5-12-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
Iowa is riding “under” streaks of 18-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 12-4-1 after a SU win, 14-3 in September, 8-2-1 as an underdog and 11-1-1 as a road pup. Similarly, the under is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five at home and 4-1 in its last five in September. Lastly, the past two meetings in this rivalry in Happy Valley stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (91-62) at N.Y. Yankees (98-56)
The Yankees look to move another step closer to the A.L. East crown – and 100 victories – when they send ace CC Sabathia (18-7, 3.31 ERA) to the hill, while the Red Sox counter with Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-5, 6.80).
New York, which has already clinched a playoff berth, cruised to a 9-5 victory in Friday’s series opener to increase its divisional lead over Boston to 6½ games with nine days remaining in the regular season. The Red Sox continue to have a healthy eight-game edge on the Rangers in the wild-card race.
The Red Sox, who are 5-3 on their current 10-game road trip, are on positive runs of 21-9 overall, 44-20 versus the A.L. East and 6-2 against winning clubs, but they’re 6-14 in their last 20 as an underdog and 2-12 in their last 14 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Yanks have won three in a row and are on incredible runs of 60-24 overall, 47-16 at home, 37-14 versus right-handed starters and 38-14 against divisional foes.
The Red Sox won the first seven meetings in this rivalry this season, but the Yankees have come back to take seven of the last eight, including five in a row in the Bronx by the combined score of 34-13.
After sitting out for three months with a shoulder injury, Matsuzaka has come back strong, posting easily his best two starts of the season. First, he held the Angels scoreless over six innings of a 4-1 win on Sept. 15, then earned a 9-3 victory at Baltimore on Sunday, yielding three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. He’s 2-1 with a 7.08 ERA in five road starts this year.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, Boston is on streaks of 36-15 overall, 17-4 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog, 12-4 against the A.L. East and 12-4 versus teams with a winning record. Also, he’s 3-2 with a bloated 6.35 ERA in six career starts versus New York, the most recent outing coming almost exactly one year ago.
Sabathia has been dominant over his last nine starts. Beginning with a 5-0 home win over Boston on Aug. 8, he’s gone 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA, and he’s won his last eight decisions and the Yankees are 10-0 behind the hefty lefty since the beginning of August. All 10 of those wins have come by multiple runs, including a 13-3 rout of Baltimore on Sept. 13 and a 10-1 win at Seattle in his last outing a week ago tonight.
Behind Sabathia, New York is on runs of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 5-0 versus the A.L. East and 13-3 as a favorite. He’s 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 home outings this year but only 4-5 with 3.62 ERA in 10 career regular-season starts against Boston (2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts this year vs. the BoSox).
For Boston, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall (all on the road), 13-5-1 in A.L. East play and 7-3-1 versus lefty starters. However, the under is 13-5-1 in the team’s last 19 on Saturday, 20-7-1 in its last 28 as an underdog and 5-2-1 with Dice-K on the mound. New York is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 in divisional games, 6-2 with Sabathia starting and 3-1-1 on Saturday, but the under is 4-1-1 in Sabathia’s last six home efforts. Finally, the over has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Canadian Bacon
Saturday, September 26
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-3.5, 58.5)
Ricky Ray is on a mission. He has thrown for 774 yards with five touchdowns in his last three games. At some point he completed 22 passes in a row. Arkee Whitlock was also impressive. So was Fred Stamps. Each one of them scored touchdowns. But Darian Durant passed for nearly 550 yards without an interception last week. The Riders where also solid on special teams. The Eskimos new offensive coordinator Kevin Strasser seems to have found the solutions to improve an otherwise anaemic offence. That doesn’t seem to impress Riders QB Darian Durant who recently said, “We know what they’re going to do.” Is Edmonton that predictable? I guess we shall see. The Eskimos already won the first two games in the series. But will that be enough?
Pick: Eskimos -3.5
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1, 44)
The Blue Bombers are going nowhere. The recent trades they made suggest they are already thinking of next year or maybe the next decade. Cody Pickett, the Argos QB, has a once-in-lifetime opportunity to prove he belongs as a starter in the CFL. He his facing a team in total disarray and can’t be allowed to fail in such a situation. The Blue Bombers are not without talent but there are still a lot of question marks about their coaching. Mike Kelly is definitely not the most popular guy in Winnipeg and, honestly, fans are still surprised that he hasn’t lost his job yet. Of course, they are also very well aware that the Blue Bombers can’t really afford to pay two salaries to former coaches. We can tell you from the start, that whichever coach comes on the losing end of this game will probably lose their job sooner than later.
Pick: Argonauts +1
Last Week 2-2, season 25-19
Saturday, September 26
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-3.5, 58.5)
Ricky Ray is on a mission. He has thrown for 774 yards with five touchdowns in his last three games. At some point he completed 22 passes in a row. Arkee Whitlock was also impressive. So was Fred Stamps. Each one of them scored touchdowns. But Darian Durant passed for nearly 550 yards without an interception last week. The Riders where also solid on special teams. The Eskimos new offensive coordinator Kevin Strasser seems to have found the solutions to improve an otherwise anaemic offence. That doesn’t seem to impress Riders QB Darian Durant who recently said, “We know what they’re going to do.” Is Edmonton that predictable? I guess we shall see. The Eskimos already won the first two games in the series. But will that be enough?
Pick: Eskimos -3.5
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1, 44)
The Blue Bombers are going nowhere. The recent trades they made suggest they are already thinking of next year or maybe the next decade. Cody Pickett, the Argos QB, has a once-in-lifetime opportunity to prove he belongs as a starter in the CFL. He his facing a team in total disarray and can’t be allowed to fail in such a situation. The Blue Bombers are not without talent but there are still a lot of question marks about their coaching. Mike Kelly is definitely not the most popular guy in Winnipeg and, honestly, fans are still surprised that he hasn’t lost his job yet. Of course, they are also very well aware that the Blue Bombers can’t really afford to pay two salaries to former coaches. We can tell you from the start, that whichever coach comes on the losing end of this game will probably lose their job sooner than later.
Pick: Argonauts +1
Last Week 2-2, season 25-19
34paytonplace
he was 4-2 last saturday and 5-2 on sunday his heating up.
and he had a winner friday night with missouri.
saturday
10u boston college -1
8u idaho +17
8u akron/central michigan over 55.5
5u mississippi st. +12.5
5u georgia tech -2.5
sunday
15u green bay -6.5 (top play)
10u houston -3.5
8u miami +6.5
8u arizona -2.5
5u san franisco +7
5u atlanta/new england over 46.5
he was 4-2 last saturday and 5-2 on sunday his heating up.
and he had a winner friday night with missouri.
saturday
10u boston college -1
8u idaho +17
8u akron/central michigan over 55.5
5u mississippi st. +12.5
5u georgia tech -2.5
sunday
15u green bay -6.5 (top play)
10u houston -3.5
8u miami +6.5
8u arizona -2.5
5u san franisco +7
5u atlanta/new england over 46.5
6* Black Widow Wiseguy SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +13.5
BIG LETDOWN SPOT FOR LSU. The Florida Gators are coming to town next week, and it's only human nature for teams to look ahead when they are about to face the defending National Champions. Mississippi State is certainly improved this year, and they have a great shot to pull off the upset Saturday. The Bulldogs won at Vanderbilt 15-3 last week by holding the Commodores to only 33 rushing yards on 29 carries and 124 passing yards on 12-of-32 attempts. So for the game, the Bulldogs gave up just 157 total yards. LSU's offense is not explosive this season, but their defense is solid. We don't feel the Tigers can score enough points to win by two touchdowns, let alone with the game outright. LSU's highest rushing total in 3 games is 178 and their highest passing total in 3 games is 172. Mississippi State is averaging 222 rushing yards per game, and that's come against good competition other than Jackson State. LSU has given up over 100 yards rushing in all 3 games so far, so the Bulldogs will be able to move the ball on the ground and win the time of possession battle. LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons. LSU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. That's a 24-1 (96%) ATS Angle backing the Bulldogs. Their ability to move the ball on the ground will be the difference in this game, especially with LSU looking ahead to the Gators. Take Mississippi State and the points
BIG LETDOWN SPOT FOR LSU. The Florida Gators are coming to town next week, and it's only human nature for teams to look ahead when they are about to face the defending National Champions. Mississippi State is certainly improved this year, and they have a great shot to pull off the upset Saturday. The Bulldogs won at Vanderbilt 15-3 last week by holding the Commodores to only 33 rushing yards on 29 carries and 124 passing yards on 12-of-32 attempts. So for the game, the Bulldogs gave up just 157 total yards. LSU's offense is not explosive this season, but their defense is solid. We don't feel the Tigers can score enough points to win by two touchdowns, let alone with the game outright. LSU's highest rushing total in 3 games is 178 and their highest passing total in 3 games is 172. Mississippi State is averaging 222 rushing yards per game, and that's come against good competition other than Jackson State. LSU has given up over 100 yards rushing in all 3 games so far, so the Bulldogs will be able to move the ball on the ground and win the time of possession battle. LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons. LSU is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. That's a 24-1 (96%) ATS Angle backing the Bulldogs. Their ability to move the ball on the ground will be the difference in this game, especially with LSU looking ahead to the Gators. Take Mississippi State and the points
5* Black Widow Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -2
Georgia Tech is down in the public eye right now and folks are starting to forget about them. But don't sleep on the Yellow Jackets, because this team is still one of the best teams in the ACC and they will make a run at the conference title before it's all said and done. They face North Carolina Saturday, a team that has committed 7 turnovers already through 3 games. The Yellow Jackets thrive off of turnovers, and they'll be very hungry defensively after getting torched by Miami last week. Georgia Tech has also has 2 extra days to prepare after playing last Thursday, which will be a big factor because the Yellow Jackets were clearly tired last week against Miami, having played 3 games in 13 days. Georgia Tech is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 8 days rest since 1992. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Take Georgia Tech and lay the points
Georgia Tech is down in the public eye right now and folks are starting to forget about them. But don't sleep on the Yellow Jackets, because this team is still one of the best teams in the ACC and they will make a run at the conference title before it's all said and done. They face North Carolina Saturday, a team that has committed 7 turnovers already through 3 games. The Yellow Jackets thrive off of turnovers, and they'll be very hungry defensively after getting torched by Miami last week. Georgia Tech has also has 2 extra days to prepare after playing last Thursday, which will be a big factor because the Yellow Jackets were clearly tired last week against Miami, having played 3 games in 13 days. Georgia Tech is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 8 days rest since 1992. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Take Georgia Tech and lay the points
