C-Star Sports
5000 Units College Football Hammer Play Of The Month! Virginia Tech minus the points over Marshall
1000 Units Top Play Michigan State minus the points over Central Michigan
1000 Units Ohio State plus the points over USC
50 units Notre Dame at Michigan over the total
50 units Kansas at Texas El Paso over the total
5000 Units College Football Hammer Play Of The Month! Virginia Tech minus the points over Marshall
1000 Units Top Play Michigan State minus the points over Central Michigan
1000 Units Ohio State plus the points over USC
50 units Notre Dame at Michigan over the total
50 units Kansas at Texas El Paso over the total
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(3) USC (1-0 SU and ATS) at (8) Ohio State (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
The game of the day comes from the Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State will be out for revenge as it hosts USC and true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley.
The Trojans ran their winning streak to 11 last Saturday and did so in emphatic fashion, pummeling San Jose State 56-3 and covering easily as a 34-point home favorite. USC actually trailed the Spartans 3-0 after the first quarter then scored 28 points in less than 11 minutes in the second quarter and never looked back, finishing with a 621-121 edge in total offense, including 343-9 on the ground. Barkley, the first true freshman to start under center for the Trojans, went 15-for-19 for 233 yards with one TD and no INTs.
The Buckeyes survived a scare against Navy in their opener, holding on for a 31-27 victory but coming up way short as a 22-point home favorite. Ohio State held a 29-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but it needed a two-point interception return on a botched Navy two-point conversion try with 2½ minutes to play to seal the win. The Buckeyes had 363 total yards (153 rushing) but allowed the Midshipmen to pile up 342 (186 rushing), and QB Terrelle Pryor was inconsistent (14-for-21, 174 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).
USC crushed the Buckeyes 35-3 as a 10½-point home favorite exactly a year ago, but Ohio State had two first-half touchdowns called back on penalties. The Trojans’ defense allowed just 207 yards, Pete Carroll’s squad finished with a 164-71 edge in rushing yards, and then-USC QB Mark Sanchez tossed four TD passes.
USC went just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road chalk in 2008, but the Trojans otherwise are on impressive pointspread upticks of 35-17 in non-Pac-10 games, 8-2 in non-conference roadies and 7-0 against the Big Ten and 14-2 as a single-digit favorite (8-0 last eight). They’re also 11-1 SU and ATS the last 12 years in their road opener.
Ohio State has won 47 of its last 48 non-conference home games, the lone defeat coming against Vince Young and No. 2 Texas in 2005. The Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a non-cover and 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 against Pac-10 foes. On the downside, the Buckeyes have failed to cover in seven of their last eight at home as well as six straight September outings.
The Trojans carry “under” trends of 17-7-1 overall, 13-6 in non-league games, 21-9-1 as a favorite, 11-1 as a single-digit chalk and 4-1 in September. Meanwhile, Ohio State has topped the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise the under is 11-5 in its last 16 in September, 4-1 in its last five versus the Pac-10 and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(19) North Carolina (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Connecticut (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Tar Heels’ stingy defense will be put to the test when they stroll onto Rentschler Field for a non-conference matchup with UConn.
North Carolina allowed just 30 yards rushing in a 40-6 blowout of The Citadel on Saturday in a non-lined contest. The Heels’ defense, with nine returning starters from a year ago, forced three turnovers in the victory, including two INTs for Deunta Williams. Coach Butch Davis’ offense wasn’t too shabby either, gaining 357 total yards, including 261 on the ground, its most productive rushing game since 2004.
The Huskies went to Ohio on Saturday and scored a 23-16 victory, cashing as four-point road favorites. Despite the loss of RB Donald Brown (first-round NFL pick), UConn’s running game was in midseason form, amassing 259 yards on 49 carries, with Jordan Todman going for 157 yards and a TD, while teammate Andre Dixon chipped in with 100 yards. On the downside, coach Randy Edsall’s team committed four turnovers on Saturday, with QB Zach Frazer leading the way with three INTs after getting picked six times last year in just 83 attempts.
These two squads met last season at Chapel Hill, N.C., with the Tar Heels delivering a 38-12 beatdown, easily cashing as eight-point favorites.
North Carolina comes in at just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite, but otherwise it is on ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference action and 5-2 against winning teams. UConn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a spread-cover and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 against winning teams, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread streaks of 8-3 at home, 5-2 in September, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 30-14-1 in non-conference action.
North Carolina has stayed below the posted total in 10 of 14 games as a road chalk, but otherwise the Heels are on “over” runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on the highway, 4-0 in non-conference action and 8-2 against Big East teams. The Huskies have gone over the number in five of six at home and four of five non-conference games, but the “under” for UConn is on streaks of 7-3 versus ACC teams and 13-6-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Iowa (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Iowa State (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
A week after surviving a scare at home against a Division I-AA opponent, Iowa makes the short trek to Ames, Iowa, for its annual battle with the Cyclones.
The Hawkeyes needed two blocked field goals in the waning seconds to hold off Northern Iowa 17-16 in a non-lined home game last Saturday. Iowa actually got outgained 354-329 and managed just 87 rushing yards, but still managed to win its fifth straight game dating to last season. In fact, the Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU in their last eight and 6-2 ATS in lined action since last October.
The Cyclones snapped a 10-game losing skid with last week’s 34-17 home win over Division I-AA North Dakota State, with QB Austen Arnaud throwing for 227 yards and two TDs, though the defense surrendered 210 rushing yards. It was the first time since a 17-5 loss at Iowa in Week 3 of last season that Iowa State had given up fewer than 28 points and just the second time in that span that it had allowed less than 34 points.
The home team has taken the last five meetings in this annual matchup, but the Cyclones took the money in all five (all as an underdog), cashing in last year’s 17-5 setback as a 13-point underdog. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 against the Hawkeyes, including 4-1 ATS in the last five in Ames.
Despite their spread-covering struggles against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road and 4-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-8 ATS in their last 12 as a road chalk. The Cyclones failed to cash in five of their last seven lined games of 2008, but they’re 15-6 ATS in their last 21 on grass and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in September.
The under is 4-0 in the last four battles in this rivalry. Also, Iowa is on “under” tears of 17-7-1 overall, 20-7-1 on the road, 13-3 in September, 11-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 versus the Big 12 and 11-5 as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in Iowa State’s last five lined contests overall and 5-1 in its last six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE and UNDER
Fresno State (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Wisconsin (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
Wisconsin and Fresno State hook up in a non-conference meeting for the second year in a row, with the scene shifting from central California to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis.
The Bulldogs hammered UC Davis 51-0 in a non-lined season opener last week, finishing with a 511-231 edge in total yards (310-43 on the ground) in snapping a two-game losing skid to end last year. Fresno State cashed easily in their season opener in 2008, whipping Rutgers 24-7 as a 3½-point road underdog, but then went 1-10 ATS the rest of the way.
Wisconsin overcame three turnovers and held off Northern Illinois 28-20 a week ago, but failed to cover as a 16½-point home favorite despite outgaining the Huskies 433-274. New QB Scott Tolzien hit on 15 of 20 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two interceptions. The Badgers have won four consecutive regular-season games, but they’ve failed to cover in their last three lined outings.
The Badgers jumped out to a 10-0 halftime lead at Fresno last year then held on for a 13-10 victory, cashing as a two-point road favorite despite getting outgained 343-304. The Bulldogs were doomed by three missed field goals in the contest.
Fresno State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against Big Ten foes. Also, in addition to its 1-10 ATS slump to end last season, the Bulldogs are in pointspread ruts of 10-29-1 overall, 1-6 on the road, 4-13 against winning teams, 1-5 in September and 0-4 in non-league action. One bright spot: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road pup.
Wisconsin is on ATS slides of 7-16 overall (0-3 last three), 1-4 at home, 3-7 as a double-digit favorite and 2-5 in September, but the Badgers are 13-6 ATS in their past 19 non-conference affairs.
Fresno is on “over” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 7-2 in non-conference games and 6-0 on artificial turf. The over is also 7-3 in Wisconsin’s last 10 on turf and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
South Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS) at (21) Georgia (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Bulldogs return home after a disappointing season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, and awaiting them will be SEC rival South Carolina.
Georgia marched down the field on the opening drive in Stillwater last Saturday and scored a touchdown, then got stymied from there, falling to the Cowboys 24-10 as a 5½-point road underdog. Senior QB Joe Cox, replacing NFL No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, played despite having flu-like symptoms and went 15-for-30 for 162 yards with a TD and an INT. Cox and the offense produced just 257 total yards.
South Carolina rode a stifling defense to a 7-3 upset win at North Carolina State last Thursday, prevailing as a five-point road underdog. The victory snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide for the Gamecocks, who gained just 256 yards but limited N.C. State to just 133 yards and 11 first downs. The winner has covered in each of South Carolina’s last nine games.
These teams meet in the second week of the season every year, and Georgia is 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS in the last seven battles. Last year, the Bulldogs earned a hard-hitting 14-7 victory, pushing as a seven-point road chalk. The visitor has won the last three meetings and is 6-2 SU in the last eight (5-2-1 ATS). Finally, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four, and six of the last eight meetings were decided by seven points or less.
Despite last week’s upset of North Carolina State, South Carolina is still just 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog. As for the Bulldogs, they’re in ATS slumps of 2-8 overall (1-5 last six), 1-5 at home, 1-6 as a favorite and 1-6 in SEC action.
The under has hit in 12 consecutive Georgia-South Carolina clashes, with the last five battles in Athens, Ga., staying low. Also, the under is 24-8 in Georgia’s last 32 September contests and 6-1-1 in South Carolina’s last eight in September. Finally, both teams stayed way under the total in their Week 1 games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER
UCLA (1-0 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (1-0 SU and ATS)
After an impressive performance in coach Lane Kiffin’s debut, Tennessee now looks to exact some revenge on UCLA when the two powerhouses meet at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.
The Bruins spotted lowly San Diego State a quick 14-3 lead last Saturday then turned on the jets and cruised to a 33-14 victory, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite, thanks to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter, the final score of the contest. UCLA finished with 359 yards and outgained the Aztecs on the ground by a 144-39 margin, and the secondary came up with three interceptions.
Tennessee torched Western Kentucky 63-7, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite in Kiffin’s debut. QB Jonathan Crompton was sharp, going 21 of 28 for 233 yards and five TDs, but he also threw two picks. The Vols piled up 657 total yards while surrendering just 83.
The Volunteers thoroughly outplayed UCLA for 3½ quarters in Pasadena, Calif., last year, but still lost 27-24 in overtime as a seven-point road favorite. Tennessee gave up a go-ahead score with 27 seconds left, but managed to get a tying 47-yard field goal as time expired to force the extra session, with the Bruins getting a 42-yard field goal to win it. The Vols lost despite forcing four interceptions and despite having a 366-288 yardage edge (177-29 in rushing).
UCLA is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Vols going back to 1994, covering three times as an underdog and once in a pick-em contest. Additionally, the Bruins are on pointspread rolls of 12-5 overall, 14-8 in non-conference road games, 22-7 as an underdog, 5-0 against the SEC, 14-5 in September and 27-11 versus winning teams.
Tennessee has won and covered three straight dating to the end of last year, and the Vols are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home chalk and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when laying between 3½ and 10 points. However, they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five against the Pac-10.
The over is 4-0 in UCLA’s last four non-conference games and 7-1 in their last eight in September. Otherwise, though, the Bruins carry “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 13-4-1 against winning teams and 8-2-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” streaks of 17-5-1 overall, 35-16-3 at Neyland Stadium, 8-2-1 as a favorite and 14-3 when playing on grass.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams going back to 1991, with the lone “over” occurring last year in Pasadena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Purdue (1-0 SU and ATS) at Oregon (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Ducks look to put a tumultuous week behind them when they entertain Purdue in a non-conference game under the lights at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
Not only did Oregon get pushed around in last Thursday’s 19-8 loss at 14th-ranked Boise State as a 3½-point road underdog, but the Ducks lost star running back LeGarrette Blount for the remainder of the season. Blount was suspended by first-year coach Chip Kelly for punching a Boise State player after the game ended. Oregon’s explosive offense, which averaged 42 points and nearly 280 rushing yards per game last year, was limited to one touchdown and 152 total yards (31 rushing), while the defense allowed 361 yards (164 rushing).
Unlike Kelly with Oregon, new Boilermakers coach Danny Hope had a successful debut, leading his team to a 52-31 rout of Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home favorite. The normally pass-happy Boilermakers had 315 of their 535 total yards on the ground, and while new QB Joey Elliott threw for 220 yards and three scores, he also tossed three INTs. Also the defense allowed 423 passing yards.
Oregon went to Purdue a year ago and earned a 32-26 double-overtime victory, but came up just short as a seven-point road favorite. The teams combined for 911 yards of offense, with the winning score ironically coming on Blount’s 3-yard TD run after Purdue missed a winning field goal on the final play in regulation.
Purdue has now covered in three straight games since last season and is on additional ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10 , 4-0-1 as an underdog of more than 10 points and 5-1-1 in non-conference roadies, but the Boilers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine on artificial turf.
The Ducks had a four-game SU and a three-game ATS winning streak snapped with the loss at Boise. However, Oregon remains on pointspread surges 13-6 in September, 7-3 against the Big Ten, 15-6 as a home favorite and 12-3 when laying more than 10 points at home.
The under is 5-2 in Purdue’s last seven road games, but the over is 10-4-2 in its last 16 non-league contests (all in September). Conversely, despite staying well under the total at Boise State last Thursday, the Ducks are on “over” stretches of 4-0-1 at home, 7-0-1 after a non-cover, 16-5-2 in September and 4-1-1 versus Big Ten competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Notre Dame (1-0 SU and ATS) at Michigan (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Fighting Irish and Wolverines hope to capitalize on the momentum gained from easy season-opening victories, with Notre Dame traveling to the Big House in Ann Arbor for this annual September tussle.
Notre Dame throttled Nevada 35-0 as a 14½-point home favorite last Saturday, with junior QB Jimmy Clausen going 15-for-18 for 315 yards and four TDs – including one from 70 yards and another from 88 yards – in helping the Irish build a 28-0 halftime lead. While Clausen and the offense (510 total yards) were sharp, the defense stole the show, holding one of the nation’s most prolific offenses to 307 yards, forcing three turnovers and posting Notre Dame’s first shutout since 2002.
Michigan put aside some off-the-field turmoil and manhandled Western Michigan 31-7 as a 13-point home favorite in Week 1. The Wolverines, who lost seven of their final eight games (SU and ATS) in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season with the team in 2008, had a 439-301 edge in total offense, and new quarterback Tate Forcier was on the mark (13-for-20, 179 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs).
The Irish ended a two-game SU and ATS slide to Michigan with last year’s 35-17 victory as a one-point home underdog. The Wolverines dominated from a yardage perspective (388-260) but committed six turnovers, including a fumble that was returned 35 yards for a score in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the visitor has won eight of the last 10 battles outright (6-4 ATS).
The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Michigan’s last 11 games, 8-0 in Notre Dame’s last eight and 7-0 in the last seven years in this rivalry.
The Irish are on ATS runs of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite and 6-0 as a road chalk. On the flip side, despite the easy cover against Western Michigan a week ago, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 1-4 at home, 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as an underdog, 0-4 after a SU win and 3-8 on artificial turf.
The under is 4-1 in the last five Notre Dame-Michigan battles in the Big House. The under is also 4-1-1 in the Irish’s last six overall, 11-2 in their last 13 on the road, 5-0 in their last five on artificial turf, 4-1 in Michigan’s last five on turf and 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER
(16) TCU (0-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (0-1, 0-0 ATS)
Coming off one of its most embarrassing losses in school history, Virginia now has to deal with the 16th-ranked Horned Frogs, who make their season debut at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.
After closing out 2008 with four straight defeats (1-3 ATS), the Cavaliers christened 2009 with a shocking 26-14 home loss to William & Mary in a non-lined game, their first loss to a Division I-AA opponent since 1986. Virginia held a 14-10 lead late in the first half but failed to score from there and got outgained 309-268 while committing a whopping seven turnovers, including three interceptions by QB Jameel Sewell.
TCU (11-2, 8-4 ATS) posted its third 11-win season in the last four years in 2008 and finished ranked No. 7 in the national polls after knocking off then-undefeated Boise State 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl, though the Frogs failed to cover as a three-point favorite in that contest. TCU fielded the top-ranked defense in the country last year, giving up just 11.3 points, 170.7 passing yards and 47.1 rushing yards per game. The Horned Frogs’ only losses came at Oklahoma (35-10) and at Utah (13-10 in the final seconds), two teams that finished ranked No. 5 and No. 2, respectively.
Coach Gary Patterson, who enters his ninth season at TCU, has to replace seven starters from last year’s top-ranked defense, but his top offensive weapons return, including dual-threat QB Andy Dalton (59 percent completion rate, 2,242 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 432 rushing yards, 8 TDs).
These schools last met in the 1994 Independence Bowl, with Virginia prevailing 20-10 but failing to cover as an 11-point favorite.
The Horned Frogs have failed to get the money in four of their last five road games, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 25-10 as a favorite, 6-1 when laying more than 10 points and 8-4 in non-conference games.
Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 lined non-conference games, 0-4 ATS in its last fourt against the Mountain West Conference and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in September. However, the Cavaliers are on pointspread upticks of 5-2 as a pup, 16-5 as a home underdog and 4-1 when catching more than 10 points at home.
TCU is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road and 15-7 as a favorite, while the Cavs are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 8-2 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
Houston (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Oklahoma State (1-0 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma State looks to avoid getting caught in a letdown when it hosts Houston a week after knocking off 13th-ranked Georgia.
The Cowboys spotted Georgia a quick 7-0 lead last Saturday and didn’t get on the scoreboard until less than three minutes remained in the first half, but they took control in the second half and scored a 24-10 victory as a 5½-point home favorite. Star QB Zac Robinson tossed two TD passes and didn’t get intercepted, but he was otherwise pedestrian in going 11-for-22 for just 135 yards while rushing for 39 yards on nine carries. Oklahoma State’s much-maligned defense stole the show, limiting the Bulldogs to just 257 total yards and forcing three turnovers.
Houston throttled Northwestern State 55-7 in a non-lined home game last week, piling up 538 yards and allowing just 263 despite having the ball for just 23½ minutes. QB Case Keenum was sensational, going 23-for-30 for 359 yards with four TDs and no picks.
These teams met in Week 2 last year and the Cowboys cruised to a 56-37 victory as a 15½-point home favorite. In 2006, the Cougars earned a 34-25 home win over OSU, cashing as a 2½-point home chalk.
The Cougars lost their first three Division I-A games last year, including the Oklahoma State blowout followed a pair of three-point defeats, but since then, they’re 7-2 SU (4-4 ATS in lined action). While Houston has covered in five of its last seven as a road pup of more than 10 points, it is otherwise in pointspread slumps of 5-12 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-4 in non-league contests, 1-4 in September and 2-9 after a SU win.
Oklahoma State snapped a four-game ATS slide with last week’s spread-cover. The Cowboys are on ATS surges of 7-2 at home, 42-20-2 as a favorite, 7-0 as a home chalk, 22-5 when laying double digits, 10-1 as a double-digit home favorite, 5-1 in non-conference play, 8-1 on artificial turf and 4-0 in September.
Houston is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in September, 5-2 as an underdog and 8-3 as a double-digit pup, while the Cowboys carry “over” trends of 29-10 at home, 9-3 as a home chalk and 5-1 in September. Finally, both meetings between these schools this decade have eclipsed the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER
Vanderbilt (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (11) LSU (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
After a lackluster season-opening victory at Washington, LSU returns to Tiger Stadium looking to knock off the Commodores for the sixth consecutive time in an SEC clash.
The Tigers fell behind 7-0 five minutes into the game at Washington last Saturday and never led by more than two touchdowns, but still prevailed 31-23, never threatening to cover as a 17½-point road favorite. LSU’s defense got torched for 478 yards (321 passing) while the offense produced just 321 yards, and the Tigers had the football for barely 23 minutes.
Vanderbilt cruised to a 45-0 non-lined home victory over Western Carolina, finishing with a ridiculous 620-125 advantage in total offense, including 433-51 on the ground. However, if you take away a 16-14 upset win over Boston College in last year’s Music City Bowl, the Commodores have lost six of their last seven to Division I-A competition (2-5 ATS).
These teams last met in 2005, with LSU cruising to a 34-6 win as a 17-point road favorite. Prior to that, however, Vanderbilt had cashed in four of five meetings against the Tigers (all as an underdog). The last time the Commodores beat LSU outright was in 1990, a 24-21 home win as a 17-point pup, and Vanderbilt hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 1951.
Vandy is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but otherwise it is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on the road, 8-2 as an underdog, 14-4 as a road pup, 9-2 as a double-digit ‘dog and 13-3 in September.
LSU has failed to cover in seven consecutive regular-season games and carries further ATS downturns of 5-19 overall, 0-7 at home, 0-5 as a favorite, 1-10 as a double-digit chalk, 7-19-1 in SEC action and 1-5 in September.
The Commodores are on “under” runs of 18-6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1-1 in September and 13-3-1 in SEC play. On the flip side, LSU has topped the total in 16 of 22 overall, nine of 13 at home, 11 of 16 in September and 13 of 18 as a favorite. Finally, the last six series meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (84-58) at San Francisco (76-65)
The Dodgers will try to hand the fading Giants their fourth straight loss when they send newly acquired right-hander Vicente Padilla (2-0, 2.76 ERA with Los Angeles) to the mound opposite Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03) at AT&T Park.
Los Angeles scored eight runs in the final four innings to beat the Giants 10-3 on Friday night, dropping the Giants to 7½ games behind the N.L. West leaders. The Dodgers have now won three of their last four in northern California and eight of 13 against San Francisco this season.
Los Angeles is on further runs of 20-8 on Saturdays, 39-18 in divisional games, 5-1 on the road, and 6-2 against winning teams. San Francisco is also on a plethora of positive streaks, including 44-20 as a home favorite, 5-1 on Saturdays, 4-1 in the second game of a series and 4-1 at home against winning teams.
This is Padilla’s fourth start for the Dodgers, who have won each of the previous three. Since arriving from Texas, Padilla has allowed five runs in 16 1/3 innings, and all three wins have come in the division. He hasn’t faced the Giants since 2005 when he was with the Phillies, but he shut them down, allowing two runs on three hits over eight innings of a 10-2 win in San Francisco.
Sanchez has had some tough luck in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a superb 2.37 ERA. In fact, he has allowed just seven runs in his last five starts covering 31 innings, but the Giants are just 2-3 during this stretch. San Francisco has also lost each of Sanchez’s last five outings against the Dodgers, including three this season as he’s allowed 11 runs (nine earned) in 15 innings of work (5.40 ERA).
The Dodgers are several “under” runs, including 21-7-3 overall, 16-6-1 on the road, 13-4-2 against N.L. West rivals and 7-1-1 against winning teams. San Francisco has topped the total in 10 of Sanchez’s last 16 home starts, but otherwise the “under” has been the play for the Giants, including 7-2 in their last nine overall, 20-9 in their last 29 when favored and 5-0-1 in Sanchez’s last six outings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(3) USC (1-0 SU and ATS) at (8) Ohio State (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
The game of the day comes from the Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State will be out for revenge as it hosts USC and true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley.
The Trojans ran their winning streak to 11 last Saturday and did so in emphatic fashion, pummeling San Jose State 56-3 and covering easily as a 34-point home favorite. USC actually trailed the Spartans 3-0 after the first quarter then scored 28 points in less than 11 minutes in the second quarter and never looked back, finishing with a 621-121 edge in total offense, including 343-9 on the ground. Barkley, the first true freshman to start under center for the Trojans, went 15-for-19 for 233 yards with one TD and no INTs.
The Buckeyes survived a scare against Navy in their opener, holding on for a 31-27 victory but coming up way short as a 22-point home favorite. Ohio State held a 29-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but it needed a two-point interception return on a botched Navy two-point conversion try with 2½ minutes to play to seal the win. The Buckeyes had 363 total yards (153 rushing) but allowed the Midshipmen to pile up 342 (186 rushing), and QB Terrelle Pryor was inconsistent (14-for-21, 174 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).
USC crushed the Buckeyes 35-3 as a 10½-point home favorite exactly a year ago, but Ohio State had two first-half touchdowns called back on penalties. The Trojans’ defense allowed just 207 yards, Pete Carroll’s squad finished with a 164-71 edge in rushing yards, and then-USC QB Mark Sanchez tossed four TD passes.
USC went just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road chalk in 2008, but the Trojans otherwise are on impressive pointspread upticks of 35-17 in non-Pac-10 games, 8-2 in non-conference roadies and 7-0 against the Big Ten and 14-2 as a single-digit favorite (8-0 last eight). They’re also 11-1 SU and ATS the last 12 years in their road opener.
Ohio State has won 47 of its last 48 non-conference home games, the lone defeat coming against Vince Young and No. 2 Texas in 2005. The Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a non-cover and 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 against Pac-10 foes. On the downside, the Buckeyes have failed to cover in seven of their last eight at home as well as six straight September outings.
The Trojans carry “under” trends of 17-7-1 overall, 13-6 in non-league games, 21-9-1 as a favorite, 11-1 as a single-digit chalk and 4-1 in September. Meanwhile, Ohio State has topped the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise the under is 11-5 in its last 16 in September, 4-1 in its last five versus the Pac-10 and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(19) North Carolina (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Connecticut (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Tar Heels’ stingy defense will be put to the test when they stroll onto Rentschler Field for a non-conference matchup with UConn.
North Carolina allowed just 30 yards rushing in a 40-6 blowout of The Citadel on Saturday in a non-lined contest. The Heels’ defense, with nine returning starters from a year ago, forced three turnovers in the victory, including two INTs for Deunta Williams. Coach Butch Davis’ offense wasn’t too shabby either, gaining 357 total yards, including 261 on the ground, its most productive rushing game since 2004.
The Huskies went to Ohio on Saturday and scored a 23-16 victory, cashing as four-point road favorites. Despite the loss of RB Donald Brown (first-round NFL pick), UConn’s running game was in midseason form, amassing 259 yards on 49 carries, with Jordan Todman going for 157 yards and a TD, while teammate Andre Dixon chipped in with 100 yards. On the downside, coach Randy Edsall’s team committed four turnovers on Saturday, with QB Zach Frazer leading the way with three INTs after getting picked six times last year in just 83 attempts.
These two squads met last season at Chapel Hill, N.C., with the Tar Heels delivering a 38-12 beatdown, easily cashing as eight-point favorites.
North Carolina comes in at just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite, but otherwise it is on ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference action and 5-2 against winning teams. UConn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a spread-cover and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 against winning teams, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread streaks of 8-3 at home, 5-2 in September, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 30-14-1 in non-conference action.
North Carolina has stayed below the posted total in 10 of 14 games as a road chalk, but otherwise the Heels are on “over” runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on the highway, 4-0 in non-conference action and 8-2 against Big East teams. The Huskies have gone over the number in five of six at home and four of five non-conference games, but the “under” for UConn is on streaks of 7-3 versus ACC teams and 13-6-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Iowa (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Iowa State (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
A week after surviving a scare at home against a Division I-AA opponent, Iowa makes the short trek to Ames, Iowa, for its annual battle with the Cyclones.
The Hawkeyes needed two blocked field goals in the waning seconds to hold off Northern Iowa 17-16 in a non-lined home game last Saturday. Iowa actually got outgained 354-329 and managed just 87 rushing yards, but still managed to win its fifth straight game dating to last season. In fact, the Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU in their last eight and 6-2 ATS in lined action since last October.
The Cyclones snapped a 10-game losing skid with last week’s 34-17 home win over Division I-AA North Dakota State, with QB Austen Arnaud throwing for 227 yards and two TDs, though the defense surrendered 210 rushing yards. It was the first time since a 17-5 loss at Iowa in Week 3 of last season that Iowa State had given up fewer than 28 points and just the second time in that span that it had allowed less than 34 points.
The home team has taken the last five meetings in this annual matchup, but the Cyclones took the money in all five (all as an underdog), cashing in last year’s 17-5 setback as a 13-point underdog. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 against the Hawkeyes, including 4-1 ATS in the last five in Ames.
Despite their spread-covering struggles against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road and 4-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-8 ATS in their last 12 as a road chalk. The Cyclones failed to cash in five of their last seven lined games of 2008, but they’re 15-6 ATS in their last 21 on grass and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in September.
The under is 4-0 in the last four battles in this rivalry. Also, Iowa is on “under” tears of 17-7-1 overall, 20-7-1 on the road, 13-3 in September, 11-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 versus the Big 12 and 11-5 as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in Iowa State’s last five lined contests overall and 5-1 in its last six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE and UNDER
Fresno State (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Wisconsin (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
Wisconsin and Fresno State hook up in a non-conference meeting for the second year in a row, with the scene shifting from central California to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis.
The Bulldogs hammered UC Davis 51-0 in a non-lined season opener last week, finishing with a 511-231 edge in total yards (310-43 on the ground) in snapping a two-game losing skid to end last year. Fresno State cashed easily in their season opener in 2008, whipping Rutgers 24-7 as a 3½-point road underdog, but then went 1-10 ATS the rest of the way.
Wisconsin overcame three turnovers and held off Northern Illinois 28-20 a week ago, but failed to cover as a 16½-point home favorite despite outgaining the Huskies 433-274. New QB Scott Tolzien hit on 15 of 20 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two interceptions. The Badgers have won four consecutive regular-season games, but they’ve failed to cover in their last three lined outings.
The Badgers jumped out to a 10-0 halftime lead at Fresno last year then held on for a 13-10 victory, cashing as a two-point road favorite despite getting outgained 343-304. The Bulldogs were doomed by three missed field goals in the contest.
Fresno State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against Big Ten foes. Also, in addition to its 1-10 ATS slump to end last season, the Bulldogs are in pointspread ruts of 10-29-1 overall, 1-6 on the road, 4-13 against winning teams, 1-5 in September and 0-4 in non-league action. One bright spot: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road pup.
Wisconsin is on ATS slides of 7-16 overall (0-3 last three), 1-4 at home, 3-7 as a double-digit favorite and 2-5 in September, but the Badgers are 13-6 ATS in their past 19 non-conference affairs.
Fresno is on “over” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 7-2 in non-conference games and 6-0 on artificial turf. The over is also 7-3 in Wisconsin’s last 10 on turf and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
South Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS) at (21) Georgia (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Bulldogs return home after a disappointing season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, and awaiting them will be SEC rival South Carolina.
Georgia marched down the field on the opening drive in Stillwater last Saturday and scored a touchdown, then got stymied from there, falling to the Cowboys 24-10 as a 5½-point road underdog. Senior QB Joe Cox, replacing NFL No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, played despite having flu-like symptoms and went 15-for-30 for 162 yards with a TD and an INT. Cox and the offense produced just 257 total yards.
South Carolina rode a stifling defense to a 7-3 upset win at North Carolina State last Thursday, prevailing as a five-point road underdog. The victory snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide for the Gamecocks, who gained just 256 yards but limited N.C. State to just 133 yards and 11 first downs. The winner has covered in each of South Carolina’s last nine games.
These teams meet in the second week of the season every year, and Georgia is 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS in the last seven battles. Last year, the Bulldogs earned a hard-hitting 14-7 victory, pushing as a seven-point road chalk. The visitor has won the last three meetings and is 6-2 SU in the last eight (5-2-1 ATS). Finally, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four, and six of the last eight meetings were decided by seven points or less.
Despite last week’s upset of North Carolina State, South Carolina is still just 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog. As for the Bulldogs, they’re in ATS slumps of 2-8 overall (1-5 last six), 1-5 at home, 1-6 as a favorite and 1-6 in SEC action.
The under has hit in 12 consecutive Georgia-South Carolina clashes, with the last five battles in Athens, Ga., staying low. Also, the under is 24-8 in Georgia’s last 32 September contests and 6-1-1 in South Carolina’s last eight in September. Finally, both teams stayed way under the total in their Week 1 games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER
UCLA (1-0 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (1-0 SU and ATS)
After an impressive performance in coach Lane Kiffin’s debut, Tennessee now looks to exact some revenge on UCLA when the two powerhouses meet at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.
The Bruins spotted lowly San Diego State a quick 14-3 lead last Saturday then turned on the jets and cruised to a 33-14 victory, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite, thanks to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter, the final score of the contest. UCLA finished with 359 yards and outgained the Aztecs on the ground by a 144-39 margin, and the secondary came up with three interceptions.
Tennessee torched Western Kentucky 63-7, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite in Kiffin’s debut. QB Jonathan Crompton was sharp, going 21 of 28 for 233 yards and five TDs, but he also threw two picks. The Vols piled up 657 total yards while surrendering just 83.
The Volunteers thoroughly outplayed UCLA for 3½ quarters in Pasadena, Calif., last year, but still lost 27-24 in overtime as a seven-point road favorite. Tennessee gave up a go-ahead score with 27 seconds left, but managed to get a tying 47-yard field goal as time expired to force the extra session, with the Bruins getting a 42-yard field goal to win it. The Vols lost despite forcing four interceptions and despite having a 366-288 yardage edge (177-29 in rushing).
UCLA is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Vols going back to 1994, covering three times as an underdog and once in a pick-em contest. Additionally, the Bruins are on pointspread rolls of 12-5 overall, 14-8 in non-conference road games, 22-7 as an underdog, 5-0 against the SEC, 14-5 in September and 27-11 versus winning teams.
Tennessee has won and covered three straight dating to the end of last year, and the Vols are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home chalk and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when laying between 3½ and 10 points. However, they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five against the Pac-10.
The over is 4-0 in UCLA’s last four non-conference games and 7-1 in their last eight in September. Otherwise, though, the Bruins carry “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 13-4-1 against winning teams and 8-2-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” streaks of 17-5-1 overall, 35-16-3 at Neyland Stadium, 8-2-1 as a favorite and 14-3 when playing on grass.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams going back to 1991, with the lone “over” occurring last year in Pasadena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Purdue (1-0 SU and ATS) at Oregon (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Ducks look to put a tumultuous week behind them when they entertain Purdue in a non-conference game under the lights at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
Not only did Oregon get pushed around in last Thursday’s 19-8 loss at 14th-ranked Boise State as a 3½-point road underdog, but the Ducks lost star running back LeGarrette Blount for the remainder of the season. Blount was suspended by first-year coach Chip Kelly for punching a Boise State player after the game ended. Oregon’s explosive offense, which averaged 42 points and nearly 280 rushing yards per game last year, was limited to one touchdown and 152 total yards (31 rushing), while the defense allowed 361 yards (164 rushing).
Unlike Kelly with Oregon, new Boilermakers coach Danny Hope had a successful debut, leading his team to a 52-31 rout of Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home favorite. The normally pass-happy Boilermakers had 315 of their 535 total yards on the ground, and while new QB Joey Elliott threw for 220 yards and three scores, he also tossed three INTs. Also the defense allowed 423 passing yards.
Oregon went to Purdue a year ago and earned a 32-26 double-overtime victory, but came up just short as a seven-point road favorite. The teams combined for 911 yards of offense, with the winning score ironically coming on Blount’s 3-yard TD run after Purdue missed a winning field goal on the final play in regulation.
Purdue has now covered in three straight games since last season and is on additional ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10 , 4-0-1 as an underdog of more than 10 points and 5-1-1 in non-conference roadies, but the Boilers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine on artificial turf.
The Ducks had a four-game SU and a three-game ATS winning streak snapped with the loss at Boise. However, Oregon remains on pointspread surges 13-6 in September, 7-3 against the Big Ten, 15-6 as a home favorite and 12-3 when laying more than 10 points at home.
The under is 5-2 in Purdue’s last seven road games, but the over is 10-4-2 in its last 16 non-league contests (all in September). Conversely, despite staying well under the total at Boise State last Thursday, the Ducks are on “over” stretches of 4-0-1 at home, 7-0-1 after a non-cover, 16-5-2 in September and 4-1-1 versus Big Ten competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Notre Dame (1-0 SU and ATS) at Michigan (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Fighting Irish and Wolverines hope to capitalize on the momentum gained from easy season-opening victories, with Notre Dame traveling to the Big House in Ann Arbor for this annual September tussle.
Notre Dame throttled Nevada 35-0 as a 14½-point home favorite last Saturday, with junior QB Jimmy Clausen going 15-for-18 for 315 yards and four TDs – including one from 70 yards and another from 88 yards – in helping the Irish build a 28-0 halftime lead. While Clausen and the offense (510 total yards) were sharp, the defense stole the show, holding one of the nation’s most prolific offenses to 307 yards, forcing three turnovers and posting Notre Dame’s first shutout since 2002.
Michigan put aside some off-the-field turmoil and manhandled Western Michigan 31-7 as a 13-point home favorite in Week 1. The Wolverines, who lost seven of their final eight games (SU and ATS) in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season with the team in 2008, had a 439-301 edge in total offense, and new quarterback Tate Forcier was on the mark (13-for-20, 179 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs).
The Irish ended a two-game SU and ATS slide to Michigan with last year’s 35-17 victory as a one-point home underdog. The Wolverines dominated from a yardage perspective (388-260) but committed six turnovers, including a fumble that was returned 35 yards for a score in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the visitor has won eight of the last 10 battles outright (6-4 ATS).
The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Michigan’s last 11 games, 8-0 in Notre Dame’s last eight and 7-0 in the last seven years in this rivalry.
The Irish are on ATS runs of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite and 6-0 as a road chalk. On the flip side, despite the easy cover against Western Michigan a week ago, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 1-4 at home, 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as an underdog, 0-4 after a SU win and 3-8 on artificial turf.
The under is 4-1 in the last five Notre Dame-Michigan battles in the Big House. The under is also 4-1-1 in the Irish’s last six overall, 11-2 in their last 13 on the road, 5-0 in their last five on artificial turf, 4-1 in Michigan’s last five on turf and 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER
(16) TCU (0-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (0-1, 0-0 ATS)
Coming off one of its most embarrassing losses in school history, Virginia now has to deal with the 16th-ranked Horned Frogs, who make their season debut at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.
After closing out 2008 with four straight defeats (1-3 ATS), the Cavaliers christened 2009 with a shocking 26-14 home loss to William & Mary in a non-lined game, their first loss to a Division I-AA opponent since 1986. Virginia held a 14-10 lead late in the first half but failed to score from there and got outgained 309-268 while committing a whopping seven turnovers, including three interceptions by QB Jameel Sewell.
TCU (11-2, 8-4 ATS) posted its third 11-win season in the last four years in 2008 and finished ranked No. 7 in the national polls after knocking off then-undefeated Boise State 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl, though the Frogs failed to cover as a three-point favorite in that contest. TCU fielded the top-ranked defense in the country last year, giving up just 11.3 points, 170.7 passing yards and 47.1 rushing yards per game. The Horned Frogs’ only losses came at Oklahoma (35-10) and at Utah (13-10 in the final seconds), two teams that finished ranked No. 5 and No. 2, respectively.
Coach Gary Patterson, who enters his ninth season at TCU, has to replace seven starters from last year’s top-ranked defense, but his top offensive weapons return, including dual-threat QB Andy Dalton (59 percent completion rate, 2,242 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 432 rushing yards, 8 TDs).
These schools last met in the 1994 Independence Bowl, with Virginia prevailing 20-10 but failing to cover as an 11-point favorite.
The Horned Frogs have failed to get the money in four of their last five road games, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 25-10 as a favorite, 6-1 when laying more than 10 points and 8-4 in non-conference games.
Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 lined non-conference games, 0-4 ATS in its last fourt against the Mountain West Conference and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in September. However, the Cavaliers are on pointspread upticks of 5-2 as a pup, 16-5 as a home underdog and 4-1 when catching more than 10 points at home.
TCU is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road and 15-7 as a favorite, while the Cavs are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 8-2 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
Houston (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Oklahoma State (1-0 SU and ATS)
Oklahoma State looks to avoid getting caught in a letdown when it hosts Houston a week after knocking off 13th-ranked Georgia.
The Cowboys spotted Georgia a quick 7-0 lead last Saturday and didn’t get on the scoreboard until less than three minutes remained in the first half, but they took control in the second half and scored a 24-10 victory as a 5½-point home favorite. Star QB Zac Robinson tossed two TD passes and didn’t get intercepted, but he was otherwise pedestrian in going 11-for-22 for just 135 yards while rushing for 39 yards on nine carries. Oklahoma State’s much-maligned defense stole the show, limiting the Bulldogs to just 257 total yards and forcing three turnovers.
Houston throttled Northwestern State 55-7 in a non-lined home game last week, piling up 538 yards and allowing just 263 despite having the ball for just 23½ minutes. QB Case Keenum was sensational, going 23-for-30 for 359 yards with four TDs and no picks.
These teams met in Week 2 last year and the Cowboys cruised to a 56-37 victory as a 15½-point home favorite. In 2006, the Cougars earned a 34-25 home win over OSU, cashing as a 2½-point home chalk.
The Cougars lost their first three Division I-A games last year, including the Oklahoma State blowout followed a pair of three-point defeats, but since then, they’re 7-2 SU (4-4 ATS in lined action). While Houston has covered in five of its last seven as a road pup of more than 10 points, it is otherwise in pointspread slumps of 5-12 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-4 in non-league contests, 1-4 in September and 2-9 after a SU win.
Oklahoma State snapped a four-game ATS slide with last week’s spread-cover. The Cowboys are on ATS surges of 7-2 at home, 42-20-2 as a favorite, 7-0 as a home chalk, 22-5 when laying double digits, 10-1 as a double-digit home favorite, 5-1 in non-conference play, 8-1 on artificial turf and 4-0 in September.
Houston is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in September, 5-2 as an underdog and 8-3 as a double-digit pup, while the Cowboys carry “over” trends of 29-10 at home, 9-3 as a home chalk and 5-1 in September. Finally, both meetings between these schools this decade have eclipsed the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER
Vanderbilt (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (11) LSU (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
After a lackluster season-opening victory at Washington, LSU returns to Tiger Stadium looking to knock off the Commodores for the sixth consecutive time in an SEC clash.
The Tigers fell behind 7-0 five minutes into the game at Washington last Saturday and never led by more than two touchdowns, but still prevailed 31-23, never threatening to cover as a 17½-point road favorite. LSU’s defense got torched for 478 yards (321 passing) while the offense produced just 321 yards, and the Tigers had the football for barely 23 minutes.
Vanderbilt cruised to a 45-0 non-lined home victory over Western Carolina, finishing with a ridiculous 620-125 advantage in total offense, including 433-51 on the ground. However, if you take away a 16-14 upset win over Boston College in last year’s Music City Bowl, the Commodores have lost six of their last seven to Division I-A competition (2-5 ATS).
These teams last met in 2005, with LSU cruising to a 34-6 win as a 17-point road favorite. Prior to that, however, Vanderbilt had cashed in four of five meetings against the Tigers (all as an underdog). The last time the Commodores beat LSU outright was in 1990, a 24-21 home win as a 17-point pup, and Vanderbilt hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 1951.
Vandy is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but otherwise it is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on the road, 8-2 as an underdog, 14-4 as a road pup, 9-2 as a double-digit ‘dog and 13-3 in September.
LSU has failed to cover in seven consecutive regular-season games and carries further ATS downturns of 5-19 overall, 0-7 at home, 0-5 as a favorite, 1-10 as a double-digit chalk, 7-19-1 in SEC action and 1-5 in September.
The Commodores are on “under” runs of 18-6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1-1 in September and 13-3-1 in SEC play. On the flip side, LSU has topped the total in 16 of 22 overall, nine of 13 at home, 11 of 16 in September and 13 of 18 as a favorite. Finally, the last six series meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (84-58) at San Francisco (76-65)
The Dodgers will try to hand the fading Giants their fourth straight loss when they send newly acquired right-hander Vicente Padilla (2-0, 2.76 ERA with Los Angeles) to the mound opposite Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03) at AT&T Park.
Los Angeles scored eight runs in the final four innings to beat the Giants 10-3 on Friday night, dropping the Giants to 7½ games behind the N.L. West leaders. The Dodgers have now won three of their last four in northern California and eight of 13 against San Francisco this season.
Los Angeles is on further runs of 20-8 on Saturdays, 39-18 in divisional games, 5-1 on the road, and 6-2 against winning teams. San Francisco is also on a plethora of positive streaks, including 44-20 as a home favorite, 5-1 on Saturdays, 4-1 in the second game of a series and 4-1 at home against winning teams.
This is Padilla’s fourth start for the Dodgers, who have won each of the previous three. Since arriving from Texas, Padilla has allowed five runs in 16 1/3 innings, and all three wins have come in the division. He hasn’t faced the Giants since 2005 when he was with the Phillies, but he shut them down, allowing two runs on three hits over eight innings of a 10-2 win in San Francisco.
Sanchez has had some tough luck in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a superb 2.37 ERA. In fact, he has allowed just seven runs in his last five starts covering 31 innings, but the Giants are just 2-3 during this stretch. San Francisco has also lost each of Sanchez’s last five outings against the Dodgers, including three this season as he’s allowed 11 runs (nine earned) in 15 innings of work (5.40 ERA).
The Dodgers are several “under” runs, including 21-7-3 overall, 16-6-1 on the road, 13-4-2 against N.L. West rivals and 7-1-1 against winning teams. San Francisco has topped the total in 10 of Sanchez’s last 16 home starts, but otherwise the “under” has been the play for the Giants, including 7-2 in their last nine overall, 20-9 in their last 29 when favored and 5-0-1 in Sanchez’s last six outings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MLB DUNKEL
Washington at Florida
The Nats come off a 5-3 win yesterday and look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 0-7 in Anibal Sanchez' last 7 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game. Washington is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.867; Cubs (Wells) 15.395
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-175); N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.757; Philadelphia (Moyer) 14.321
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Under
Game 905-906: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.320; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.817
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under
Game 907-908: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Estrada) 15.320; Florida (Sanchez) 14.133
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190); Under
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.739; Houston (Moehler) 13.613
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.193; Arizona (Mulvey) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.335; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.982
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 915-916: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 16.739; San Diego (Stauffer) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under
Game 917-918: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 16.034; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.781
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-300); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+270); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.785; Minnesota (Manship) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Over
Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.966; LA Angels (Santana) 15.251
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 14.281; Detroit (Jackson) 15.352
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.581; Cleveland (Huff) 14.962
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.503; Boston (Beckett) 15.442
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+185); Under
Game 929-930: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.331; Texas (Millwood) 15.185
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+185); Under
Washington at Florida
The Nats come off a 5-3 win yesterday and look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 0-7 in Anibal Sanchez' last 7 starts after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game. Washington is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.867; Cubs (Wells) 15.395
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-175); N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.757; Philadelphia (Moyer) 14.321
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Under
Game 905-906: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.320; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.817
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under
Game 907-908: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Estrada) 15.320; Florida (Sanchez) 14.133
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190); Under
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.739; Houston (Moehler) 13.613
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.193; Arizona (Mulvey) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.335; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.982
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 915-916: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 16.739; San Diego (Stauffer) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under
Game 917-918: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 16.034; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.781
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-300); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+270); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.785; Minnesota (Manship) 15.959
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-120); Over
Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.966; LA Angels (Santana) 15.251
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 14.281; Detroit (Jackson) 15.352
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.581; Cleveland (Huff) 14.962
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Over
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.503; Boston (Beckett) 15.442
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+185); Under
Game 929-930: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.331; Texas (Millwood) 15.185
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+185); Under
FantasySportsGametime
Saturday MLB Plays
MLB Baseball
25* Play Detroit (-180) over Toronto (MLB PLAY)
Edwin Jackson has won 8 consecutive games as a home favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 5 consecutive games at home when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Edwin Jackson is 7-1 at home this season with an ERA of 3.18.
25* Play Chicago Cubs (-170) over Cincinnati (MLB PLAY)
Cincinnati has lost 5 consecutive games and they have also lost 17 of the last 22 games when playing on a Saturday. Johnny Cueto has lost 7 of the last 9 games when playing on a Saturday and he has an ERA of 5.93 over the last 3 starts.
Saturday MLB Plays
MLB Baseball
25* Play Detroit (-180) over Toronto (MLB PLAY)
Edwin Jackson has won 8 consecutive games as a home favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 5 consecutive games at home when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Edwin Jackson is 7-1 at home this season with an ERA of 3.18.
25* Play Chicago Cubs (-170) over Cincinnati (MLB PLAY)
Cincinnati has lost 5 consecutive games and they have also lost 17 of the last 22 games when playing on a Saturday. Johnny Cueto has lost 7 of the last 9 games when playing on a Saturday and he has an ERA of 5.93 over the last 3 starts.
WNBA DUNKEL
Detroit at Chicago
The Shock look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is coming off a victory over Indiana, but is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU win. Detroit is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.777; Washington 113.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 169 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 5; 167
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5); Over
Game 603-604: Seattle at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.726; San Antonio 116.936
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 144 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over
Game 605-606: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.305; Chicago 112.451
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under
Detroit at Chicago
The Shock look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is coming off a victory over Indiana, but is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU win. Detroit is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 111.777; Washington 113.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 169 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 5; 167
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5); Over
Game 603-604: Seattle at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.726; San Antonio 116.936
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 144 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over
Game 605-606: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.305; Chicago 112.451
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under
From a very good friend!
Bob Valentino
25 DIME College Football Winner ...
25 DIME: LSU (minus the points vs. Vanderbilt)
NOTE: At the time of publishing this release, LSU was favored by 14 1/2 points. If that's still the case as you read this, I want you to play it safe and buy the half point and only lay 14! I highly recommend you get on this game early, because this number is only going to go up!
Also, as always, shop around to get the best of the number. Never lay more on a favorite than you have to, or take back less on an underdog than is available!
Bob Valentino
25 DIME College Football Winner ...
25 DIME: LSU (minus the points vs. Vanderbilt)
NOTE: At the time of publishing this release, LSU was favored by 14 1/2 points. If that's still the case as you read this, I want you to play it safe and buy the half point and only lay 14! I highly recommend you get on this game early, because this number is only going to go up!
Also, as always, shop around to get the best of the number. Never lay more on a favorite than you have to, or take back less on an underdog than is available!
