Dr. Bob
It's rare that I don't have any Best Bets, but this is one of those weeks. There were a lot of games that were close to being Best Bets, but I didn't want to force the action as there will be plenty of Best Bets over the course of the season. I do have 8 Strong Opinions.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #301 Clemson (+5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #304 Toledo (+4) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #318 Iowa State (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #322 Army (pk/-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #332 Tulane (+17 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #336 Wyoming (+33) Strong Opinion at +32 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #340 Michigan (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #350 Boston College (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Strong Opinion
Clemson 24 GEORGIA TECH (-5.0) 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Sep-09
Redshirt freshman quarterback Kyle Parker makes his first road start after playing pretty well last week in his home debut, a 37-14 win over Middle Tennessee State. Parker got plenty of help from great special teams play, but the Tigers starting offense out-gained their Blue Raiders' counterparts 5.8 yards per play to 3.9 yppl even with an injured RB C.J. Spiller getting just 4 carries due to a tweaked hamstring (he's practicing and listed as probable this week). Clemson looks just average offensively this season even with Spiller, but the Tigers have a very good defense that I rate at 1.0 yppl better than an average team and their special teams continue to be among the best in the nation. Georgia Tech had a pretty easy time against Jacksonville State, as the starters jumped out to a 31-7 half time lead before coasting to a 37-17 win. Jonathan Dwyer has 95 yards on just 7 carries before taking an early seat on the bench, but Clemson's defense will provide a huge test for the Yellow Jackets' option attack given how strong the Tigers are on the defensive front. My ratings favor Georgia Tech by just 3 points and Clemson applies to a 41-8-2 ATS game 2 situation. I'll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at +4 or more based on the situation.
Strong Opinion
TOLEDO 30 Colorado (-4.0) 28
06:00 PM Pacific, 11-Sep-09
Both of these teams were beaten pretty soundly last week, as the Rockets lost on the road 31-52 at Purdue while Colorado was upset 17-23 by Colorado State as a 10 1/2 point home favorite in a game that really wasn't that close (the Buffs were out-gained 4.1 yards per play to 6.0 yppl). Colorado looks as dismal on offense this season as they were last year (0.9 yppl worse than average) and the Buffaloes' rebuilt defense (4 returning starters) was exploited with numerous big plays by the Rams, who took advantage of two young Colorado safeties to average 20.8 yards per completion. Toledo's 4th year starting quarterback Aaron Opelt should have pretty good passing stats against that Buffs secondary after throwing for 423 yards at a solid 6.3 yards per pass play on 67 pass plays against a good Purdue secondary last week. The absence of last year's leading rusher Morgan Williams (suspended for 2 games) isn't that big of a deal considering that Toledo threw the ball nearly 80% of the time last week and will probably do so again tonight. Toledo's defense was a huge problem, allowing 535 yards at 8.0 yppl to the Boilermakers, so it appears that the Rockets are having a tough time grasping the new defensive scheme. However, Colorado doesn't appear to be able to fully take advantage of that defense like Purdue did last week. My ratings favor Colorado by 2 points and the Buffaloes apply to a negative 35-83-7 ATS scheduling situation. Toledo, meanwhile, tends to play much better at home than they do on the road, as the Rockets are 38-21 ATS all time at home. I'll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion
IOWA ST. 26 Iowa (-6.5) 27
09:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
Iowa nearly escaped with a 17-16 win over Northern Iowa last week and this game could be another tough one for the Hawkeyes. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team that rates at just a few points worse than an average FBS team but Iowa played a slightly below average team even at 5.1 yards per play apiece on their home field. The Hawkeyes were down two starting offensive lineman last week and the makeshift line averaged just 4.6 yards per rushing play and allowed 4 sacks. One of the Hawkeyes' offensive linemen returns from suspension this week, so the line play should be better. Even so, Iowa is without starting RB Jewell Hampton for the season and Robinson and O'Meara showed nothing last week (just 79 combined yards on 24 carries) that suggests Iowa will be able to run the ball successfully this season. The Hawkeyes should run the ball at a pretty good clip today against a Cyclones' defense that allowed North Dakota State to run for 232 yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play and quarterback Ricky Stanzi should post good passing numbers as long as the Cyclones' new found pass rush (4 sacks last week against a decent N. Dakota State team) takes advantage of Iowa's line. Iowa State's Austin Arnaud is a good dual threat quarterback and the Cyclones do have a good offense this season, but Iowa's defense should play better than it did last week. My ratings actually favor Iowa by 8 points, which is what the line opened at. The reason for taking Iowa State is a number of good situations, including a negative 35-83-7 ATS game 2 situation applying to Iowa and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator that favors Iowa State. The technical analysis is enough to make Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Strong Opinion
ARMY (pk/-1) 23 Duke 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
Army was an underrated team heading into last week's game with Eastern Michigan, but a 27-14 upset win with a 6.0 yards per play to 3.8 yppl advantage has people taking notice. Army's new option offense ran for 317 yards at 7.0 yards per rushing play against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense, but doing that against a good Duke run defense will be a tougher task today. Duke lost 16-24 at home to FCS team Richmond, but Richmond has a ton of talent returning from a team that was the FCS champion last season and last year's team was about 5 1/2 points better than an average FBS team, so that was not really an upset (Duke was favored by just 2 points at home). Duke did, however, out-gain Richmond 5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl, which is actually pretty impressive. Army's defense was solid last year when LB Stephen Anderson played (he didn't start until game 4) and the Cadets' defense looked good last week, so Duke should also have some trouble moving the ball - although experienced quarterback Thaddeus Lewis had a pretty good game (6.1 yards per pass play) against a very good Richmond defense that would rate at 0.6 yppl better than an average FBS defense. My ratings favor Army by 2 points but and the Black Knights apply to a very good 56-15 ATS early season indicator while Duke applies to a negative 60-124-1 ATS situation. My only concern is the match-up, as Army's offense could stall if Duke's good run defense can stop the run, as Army quarterback Trent Steelman accounted for -4 yards on 7 pass plays last week. I'll consider Army a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less based on the technical analysis, but I'll pass on making this game a Best Bet due to the uncertainty of how well Army's rushing attack will perform against a good run defense.
Strong Opinion
BOSTON COLLEGE (-20.5) 33 Kent State 7
11:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
Boston College opened the Frank Spaziani era with a 54-0 win over Northeastern last week and that victory is impressive even after accounting for the fact that their opponent is 25 points worse than an average Division 1A (FBS) team. Kent, meanwhile, wasn't so impressive in a 19-0 win over lowly Coastal Carolina, who is about 21 points worse than an average FBS team. Kent's defense played well, but the Flashes have struggled defending the run against better competition in recent years and Boston College should be able to run the ball very well in this game while their quarterbacks post decent numbers in support of the rushing attack. Kent's offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play last week against a bad Coastal Carolina defense and they will likely struggle against what appears to be another good Boston College defense that gave up just 2.5 yppl to a Northeastern offense that would average 4.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team. Boston College does have some injury problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the backups played well last week and are certainly more talented than Kent's offensive personnel. Eugene Jarvis is a good back, but he appears to be Kent's only weapon and BC's tradition of good run defense should continue this year under their new leadership. My ratings favor BC by 21 1/2 points, so the line is pretty fair, but the Eagles apply to a very good 101-32 ATS momentum situation and Kent is 0-8 ATS following their last 8 victories. I'll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Strong Opinion
MICHIGAN 26 Notre Dame (-3.0) 23
12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
Both of these teams were impressive in week 1 blowouts against decent competition and this will be a true test for each squad. Notre Dame came into the season with more hype and they were more impressive last week in beating Nevada 35-0 than Michigan was in beating Western Michigan 31-7, but the team that looks the best rarely gets the money in this game. In fact, the underdog in this game is 12-8-1 straight up and 18-3 ATS since 1982, including Notre Dame's 35-17 win as a 2 point home dog last year. That pushed the mark of home underdogs in this series to 7-0 ATS and I see that pattern continuing. My updated ratings favor Notre Dame by 3 points, which is right on the number, but aside from the series trend the Wolverines apply to a very good 77-24-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator. The technical analysis is strongly in favor of Michigan in this game and I'll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion as an underdog of 3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TULANE 23 BYU (-17.5) 35
12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
If ever there were a letdown game this is it. BYU opened the season by knocking Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford out of the game and upsetting the #3 ranked Sooners 14-13 as a 22 1/2 point dog. BYU was playing the Sooners even when Bradford was in the game and the Cougars out-gained Oklahoma 5.4 yards per play to 4.6 yppl (5.3 yppl with Bradford stats only), so their win was no fluke. In fact, it should have been easier than a 1 point win given how easily Cougars' quarterback Max Hall dissected the Sooners' defense for 26 of 38 passing for 329 yards. That win, however, sets up BYU in a very negative 0-15 ATS subset of a 5-30 ATS game 2 letdown situation and Tulane wasn't that bad last week against an explosive Tulsa team. Tulane didn't cover as a 14 point dog in their 13-37 loss, but being out-gained by just 1.2 yppl (5.5 yppl to 6.7 yppl) was exactly what I expected in that game. It was the Tulane special teams that cost them about 10 points (a 66 yard punt return TD by Tulsa and about 3 points worth of field position). Tulane's special teams aren't likely to be quite as bad and star running back Andre Anderson should perform better this week after averaging just 2.6 ypr last week after being weakened by the flu. In fact, 23 of Tulane's players were hit with the flu in late August and the entire team should have more energy for this game. New Tulane quarterback Joe Kemp is a good passer (16 for 26 for 278 yard) that can take advantage of a BYU team that is probably spending more time this week taking pats on the back than studying film on how to beat the Green Wave. BYU will get their points, but Tulane has a good enough offense to compete. My ratings favor the Cougars by 18 points - so the line is fair - I'll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more based on the strong situation. I'd take Tulane in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Strong Opinion
WYOMING 13 Texas (-33.0) 41
12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09
Wyoming is still a bad offensive team, but the Cowboys are better than average defensively and should slow down the Texas offense enough to stay within a huge number at home. Wyoming's defense gave up just 5.0 yards per play last season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and I rate the Cowboys' stop unit even better this season with 8 starters returning, including all 4 defensive linemen and their best 3 defensive backs. Wyoming allowed just 27.8 points per game in 2008 despite a horrible offense and a -22 in turnover margin that constantly put them in bad field position. That unit was tested last week by a very good Weber State attack that averaged 455 yards at 6.9 yppl last season and would have averaged 6.4 yppl against an average FBS defense. All of Weber's star offensive players are back from that team and Wyoming held them to 5.7 yppl and picked off 5 passes in last week's 29-22 victory. My math has that Wyoming defense limiting Texas to just 6.0 yppl in this game, so it will be a challenge for the Longhorns to score enough points to cover such a huge number even if Wyoming's offense struggles as expected (I project just 4.0 yppl for the Cowboys). Wyoming isn't likely to get more than 1 or 2 scoring opportunities against the Longhorns' #1 defense, but UL Monroe marched down the field twice in the 4th quarter last week against Texas subs to cover a big spread and Wyoming has a pretty good chance to cover in this game with just one touchdown. My ratings favor Texas by just 28 points and the Longhorns will be dealing with high altitude and could be caught looking ahead to their big revenge game with Texas Tech next week. Wyoming has 16 returning starters and teams with 16 or more returning starters are a solid 91-52-4 ATS as home underdogs in the first 3 games of the season over the years, including Washington's spread win against LSU last week. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +32 points or more and I'd make the Cowboys a 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more.
