Wunderdog
SARATOGA Race #1 at 1:00 PM Eastern
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SARATOGA Race #1 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Top pick: #1 (FUHERVER DANCING) - Part of a Gary Gullo-trained entry and only one will run. Very steady runner is exiting a good-looking win at Belmont July 19 and it's by far the best last out of any entered. Repeat of it wins this.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #1a (Hurricane Heat) - The other half of the Gullo-trained entry has won two in a row since being claimed and he brings good tactical speed and a nice outside post to use it from. Win candidate if he runs.
3rd pick: #9 (Chief Export) - Stalker was claimed two back by Enrique Arroyo for $14,000 and finished an even fifth, facing $25K stock last out. Drops and has a big work at Belmont for this.
4th pick: #7 (Double Or Nothing) - Freshened-up by the Mike Maker barn for the past two months, speedy gelding is working sharply and Maker is excellent off of this type of layoff (26%).
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Wunderdog
Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline)
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Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline)
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The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really get it turned up playing against the poor teams in the league at home, as they have compiled a 53-19 record against them, or a 73.6% winning percentage. Take those percentages and look at this line, and ask where the value is in this one? Zach Duke has pitched well for the Pirates, but with that said, they have still lost seven of his last eight starts and on the road, they have dropped eight of his last nine. This one shows solid value for the Cubs across the board, so Chicago gets the call here.
Freddy Wills POD
Take Cubs - 4-Dime POD
Cubs are a much better day team and it showed yesterday without Bradley and Ramirez in the lineup. Ramirez out of hte lineup with the flu might play today, but even if he doesn't I am confinced against the Pirates who struggle to put any kind of runs up as of late particularly against LH starters who they will face their old prospect Tom Gorzelanny who in his 2 starts looked great at Cincinnati 7.1 IP 3H 1ER and then dreadful @ Colorado 1.1 IP 6H 6ER.
He'll have a great chance going up against the Pirates who are not a good day team and have a .231 average 1.29 R/9 vs. LHP in their last 5 games with a bullpen of 8.13 over their last 10 does not look to me like they are ready for this challenge unless Duke goes deep into the game.
Duke has been solid on the season, and against the Cubs with 14IP 15H 3BB and 5ER this year, but it's the third time and the Cubs are hitting .341 in their career with Soriano leading with 15-33 and 2HR. Pirates are 4-22 in their last 26 road starts vs. team with a winning record.
Take Cubs - 4-Dime POD
Cubs are a much better day team and it showed yesterday without Bradley and Ramirez in the lineup. Ramirez out of hte lineup with the flu might play today, but even if he doesn't I am confinced against the Pirates who struggle to put any kind of runs up as of late particularly against LH starters who they will face their old prospect Tom Gorzelanny who in his 2 starts looked great at Cincinnati 7.1 IP 3H 1ER and then dreadful @ Colorado 1.1 IP 6H 6ER.
He'll have a great chance going up against the Pirates who are not a good day team and have a .231 average 1.29 R/9 vs. LHP in their last 5 games with a bullpen of 8.13 over their last 10 does not look to me like they are ready for this challenge unless Duke goes deep into the game.
Duke has been solid on the season, and against the Cubs with 14IP 15H 3BB and 5ER this year, but it's the third time and the Cubs are hitting .341 in their career with Soriano leading with 15-33 and 2HR. Pirates are 4-22 in their last 26 road starts vs. team with a winning record.
Vegas Sports Informer's Picks For Major League Baseball
MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
Write ups coming soon…
3 Unit Play. #914 Take NY Mets –125 over San Francisco (Saturday 8/15 4:10 PM)
8 Unit Play. #928 Take Texas –115 over Boston (Saturday 8/15 8:05 PM)
(Game of the Year) Texas is coming off a horrible loss last night to the Red Sox so revenge will be on the minds of the Rangers tonight. Brad Penny will get the ball for Boston tonight and he has had some issues on the road this season, going 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA in 10 starts away from Fenway Park. If Penny struggles early this game could get out of hand quickly. Texas swept Boston in a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark earlier this year (July) and also took two of three games from the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Like I said earlier revenge is on the minds of the Rangers for blowing the game last night and if the Rangers want to hang around for the Wild Card they will need to win these big home games. Boston is 1-6 in their last 7 road games and the Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
Write ups coming soon…
3 Unit Play. #914 Take NY Mets –125 over San Francisco (Saturday 8/15 4:10 PM)
8 Unit Play. #928 Take Texas –115 over Boston (Saturday 8/15 8:05 PM)
(Game of the Year) Texas is coming off a horrible loss last night to the Red Sox so revenge will be on the minds of the Rangers tonight. Brad Penny will get the ball for Boston tonight and he has had some issues on the road this season, going 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA in 10 starts away from Fenway Park. If Penny struggles early this game could get out of hand quickly. Texas swept Boston in a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark earlier this year (July) and also took two of three games from the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Like I said earlier revenge is on the minds of the Rangers for blowing the game last night and if the Rangers want to hang around for the Wild Card they will need to win these big home games. Boston is 1-6 in their last 7 road games and the Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Orioles
2. 50,000♦ Bears
1. Orioles- Boy are a lot of average bettors going to get pissed in this contest... You see, I know full well on the surface this looks like an easy win for the Angels, with "surging" Lackey pitching against the struggling still wet-behind-the-ears lefty Matusz, but after digging a little deeper, you'll find tremendous value in the O's tonight and here's why:
First, it starts with the Orioles offensive explosion last night, scoring a whopping 16 runs on 19 hits, burying Angels stud Jered Weaver and their bullpen! Much like Weaver, Lackey is supposed to be a "lock" tonight, but let me be the one to warn you... This O's offense can and will stay hot tonight at home, where they avergae a hearty 5.4 runs per game against righties this season, batting .295 in the process! I'm warning you Angels-backers, Lackey is going to be tested early and often by a red-hot Orioles offense tonight.
Second, for as hot as Lackey has been, his numbers at Camden Yards are hardly impressive, going 3-3 with a beatable 4.14 ERA in 6 career starts there. Also, you cannot ignore the fact that Lackey threw 131 pitches in his last start, his most on the season by far... To expect another razor sharp outing after exhausting himself in his last start is a stretch at best (and a disaster for Angels-backers at worst).
Finally, there's Brian Matusz, who many are admittingly down on after allowing 5 runs in just 2 2/3 innings at Toronto in his last start. But before you go fading him, consider two things: A. Both of his starts this year have come in hostile territory, and he should benefit greatly from finally getting to pitch at home (as most rookie hurlers do). And B. Remember guys, this kid got drafted 4th overall in 2008. In other words, he's got the stuff, its just a matter of putting it together, and I believe he's going to come into this game more motivated than ever before. He was solid at the Tigers in his debut, and I believe the lefty will get back to attacking batters in this one. In the end, let's go grab that plus money with the O's, as they build off last night's explosion by downing another Angels righty Saturday night!
Take the Orioles behind Matusz over the LA Angels and Lackey as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bears- Common sense tells us that a team playing their second preseason game is going to have an advantage over a team playing their first game of the entire season. However, that being said, this match up does not fall under that thinking, and here's why:
First and foremost, the trends do not favor the Bills in this spot. Did you know that Buffalo is 0-5 SUATS when favored over the L3 preseaons?! That trend right there should be sending up red flags to any informed bettor! Also, the Bills are just 1-6 ATS over their L7 preseason home games! Point is, based on past history, this is NOT a good spot for Buffalo, plain and simple.
Second, I like the Bears defensive rotation tremendously. All reports out of their camp is that their defense is stellar, with position battles happening all over the place (which is always good in a preseason game). Bills defense got shredded by the Titans (early on), and produced very little pressure throughout (just 1 sack). Not to mention, I expect the Bills troubles on 3rd down (3 of 11 in Hall of Fame Game) to once again be an issue against this Chicago stop unit.
Finally, there's public perception... The fact the public got to see the Bills in the Hall of Fame game, and are expecting a better performance in their second game of the preseason, only adds fuel to my argument. The guys in Vegas aren't stupid, and setting this number where its at, is a perfect trap for the average bettor. Note, neither QB rotation is particuarly scary (with the starters getting very little time), so this one comes down to defense, and the clear edge in talent and depth goes to Chicago, and that my friends is the difference in this one.
Take the Bears plus the points over the Bills in this NFL preseason match up.
Do any of you guys ever get upset about buying picks, man was I leaning Angels today to bounce back. Anyways first posted pick, Paid and Confirmed by me
.
Today's Games... 1. 200,000♦ Orioles
2. 50,000♦ Bears
1. Orioles- Boy are a lot of average bettors going to get pissed in this contest... You see, I know full well on the surface this looks like an easy win for the Angels, with "surging" Lackey pitching against the struggling still wet-behind-the-ears lefty Matusz, but after digging a little deeper, you'll find tremendous value in the O's tonight and here's why:
First, it starts with the Orioles offensive explosion last night, scoring a whopping 16 runs on 19 hits, burying Angels stud Jered Weaver and their bullpen! Much like Weaver, Lackey is supposed to be a "lock" tonight, but let me be the one to warn you... This O's offense can and will stay hot tonight at home, where they avergae a hearty 5.4 runs per game against righties this season, batting .295 in the process! I'm warning you Angels-backers, Lackey is going to be tested early and often by a red-hot Orioles offense tonight.
Second, for as hot as Lackey has been, his numbers at Camden Yards are hardly impressive, going 3-3 with a beatable 4.14 ERA in 6 career starts there. Also, you cannot ignore the fact that Lackey threw 131 pitches in his last start, his most on the season by far... To expect another razor sharp outing after exhausting himself in his last start is a stretch at best (and a disaster for Angels-backers at worst).
Finally, there's Brian Matusz, who many are admittingly down on after allowing 5 runs in just 2 2/3 innings at Toronto in his last start. But before you go fading him, consider two things: A. Both of his starts this year have come in hostile territory, and he should benefit greatly from finally getting to pitch at home (as most rookie hurlers do). And B. Remember guys, this kid got drafted 4th overall in 2008. In other words, he's got the stuff, its just a matter of putting it together, and I believe he's going to come into this game more motivated than ever before. He was solid at the Tigers in his debut, and I believe the lefty will get back to attacking batters in this one. In the end, let's go grab that plus money with the O's, as they build off last night's explosion by downing another Angels righty Saturday night!
Take the Orioles behind Matusz over the LA Angels and Lackey as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bears- Common sense tells us that a team playing their second preseason game is going to have an advantage over a team playing their first game of the entire season. However, that being said, this match up does not fall under that thinking, and here's why:
First and foremost, the trends do not favor the Bills in this spot. Did you know that Buffalo is 0-5 SUATS when favored over the L3 preseaons?! That trend right there should be sending up red flags to any informed bettor! Also, the Bills are just 1-6 ATS over their L7 preseason home games! Point is, based on past history, this is NOT a good spot for Buffalo, plain and simple.
Second, I like the Bears defensive rotation tremendously. All reports out of their camp is that their defense is stellar, with position battles happening all over the place (which is always good in a preseason game). Bills defense got shredded by the Titans (early on), and produced very little pressure throughout (just 1 sack). Not to mention, I expect the Bills troubles on 3rd down (3 of 11 in Hall of Fame Game) to once again be an issue against this Chicago stop unit.
Finally, there's public perception... The fact the public got to see the Bills in the Hall of Fame game, and are expecting a better performance in their second game of the preseason, only adds fuel to my argument. The guys in Vegas aren't stupid, and setting this number where its at, is a perfect trap for the average bettor. Note, neither QB rotation is particuarly scary (with the starters getting very little time), so this one comes down to defense, and the clear edge in talent and depth goes to Chicago, and that my friends is the difference in this one.
Take the Bears plus the points over the Bills in this NFL preseason match up.
Do any of you guys ever get upset about buying picks, man was I leaning Angels today to bounce back. Anyways first posted pick, Paid and Confirmed by me
.We Cover Spreads
1*Houston Texans +2
Here is an interesting stat; of all the current NFL head coaches in the league that took over their current positions from 2006 until last year they were just 3-10 ATS in their debut home preseason game with their new team.
That's a tough trend for first year Kansas City coach Todd Haley to snap as he makes first start at Arrowhead Stadium. The biggest noise coming out of camp lately is star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe being placed on the 3rd team wide receiver group in the depth chart this week which makes us scratch our heads. Veteran receiver Bobby Engram admitted to the media that Haley is not at all happy with this receivers up to this point. In his rookie season as a head coach the former 'Zona Offensive Coordinator has a tough gig taking over this Chiefs team which is arguably top to bottom the least talented team in the league. Also another question is how is this team going to do in their new 3-4 defensive system under ex-Cardinals DC Clancy Pendergast?
On the other hand the Gary Kubiaks' Houston Texans are a team with legit playoff chances this season for the first time in franchise history. Both of these teams are young but the difference is Kubiak's depth chart is deeper as this game wears on. Frank Bush, who has been an assistant with the team will now take over as Defensive Coordinator. They are going to be an eight-man front and force offenses to go through the air, so you can expect a lot more pressure and blitzing from the Texans this season. It will be interesting to see how the Cheifs QB's react. Bush actually worked as LB coach under KC Defensive Coordinator Pendergrast for three seasons in Arizona.
The Chiefs have brought in some veteran guys for leadership like Mike Brown, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer, Zach Thomas, and Mike Vrabel in the off season. All guys who most likely aren't going to go full throttle here in these preseason games.The Texans are loaded with young talent that may not be as familiar to the betting public outside of the Houston area. Loads of young guys in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year in the league and getting comfortable under Kubiaks system who have something to play for this preseason. They are clearly much deeper at almost every position then the Chiefs
A key thing when handicapping who will cover the spread in these preseason games is knowing the QB rotation. If we compare starters of course Matt Schaub has the edge on Matt Cassel. They don't matter as much because they will only be playing in the first quarter. We have to handicap the remainder of the game with the 2nd and 3rd string QB's. Let's look at Houston's back ups; Dan Orvlosky and Rex Grossman preseason stats from last year. Orvlosky had a 59% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Grossman had a 56% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Now let's glance at the Chiefs back ups Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen. Croyle had a 58% completion percentage and 0 TD/1 INT. Thigpen had a 45% completion percentage and 2 TD/3 INT's. It's a clear cut advantage who is going to control the ball more effective down the stretch of the game and that is the Houston back ups.
Also remember that Croyle who we believe will play the biggest hunk of time in this game, missed all the offseason practices because he was rehabbing from knee surgery, returned to play when the Chiefs started training camp two weeks ago. So he will be rusty still without a doubt. In the 4th quarter it will be Rex Grossman in for Houston and Thigpen in for Kansas City; we much rather back the QB with Super Bowl experience over Thigpen. Experience down the stretch is key in these August games.
Some interesting notes Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 preseason games as a dog. In head coach Gary Kubiaks tenure they are 7-3-2 ATS in preseason games. The Chiefs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games. Houston has won three of the last four meetings in the preseason and regular season both straight up and ATS.
1*Houston Texans +2
Here is an interesting stat; of all the current NFL head coaches in the league that took over their current positions from 2006 until last year they were just 3-10 ATS in their debut home preseason game with their new team.
That's a tough trend for first year Kansas City coach Todd Haley to snap as he makes first start at Arrowhead Stadium. The biggest noise coming out of camp lately is star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe being placed on the 3rd team wide receiver group in the depth chart this week which makes us scratch our heads. Veteran receiver Bobby Engram admitted to the media that Haley is not at all happy with this receivers up to this point. In his rookie season as a head coach the former 'Zona Offensive Coordinator has a tough gig taking over this Chiefs team which is arguably top to bottom the least talented team in the league. Also another question is how is this team going to do in their new 3-4 defensive system under ex-Cardinals DC Clancy Pendergast?
On the other hand the Gary Kubiaks' Houston Texans are a team with legit playoff chances this season for the first time in franchise history. Both of these teams are young but the difference is Kubiak's depth chart is deeper as this game wears on. Frank Bush, who has been an assistant with the team will now take over as Defensive Coordinator. They are going to be an eight-man front and force offenses to go through the air, so you can expect a lot more pressure and blitzing from the Texans this season. It will be interesting to see how the Cheifs QB's react. Bush actually worked as LB coach under KC Defensive Coordinator Pendergrast for three seasons in Arizona.
The Chiefs have brought in some veteran guys for leadership like Mike Brown, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer, Zach Thomas, and Mike Vrabel in the off season. All guys who most likely aren't going to go full throttle here in these preseason games.The Texans are loaded with young talent that may not be as familiar to the betting public outside of the Houston area. Loads of young guys in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year in the league and getting comfortable under Kubiaks system who have something to play for this preseason. They are clearly much deeper at almost every position then the Chiefs
A key thing when handicapping who will cover the spread in these preseason games is knowing the QB rotation. If we compare starters of course Matt Schaub has the edge on Matt Cassel. They don't matter as much because they will only be playing in the first quarter. We have to handicap the remainder of the game with the 2nd and 3rd string QB's. Let's look at Houston's back ups; Dan Orvlosky and Rex Grossman preseason stats from last year. Orvlosky had a 59% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Grossman had a 56% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Now let's glance at the Chiefs back ups Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen. Croyle had a 58% completion percentage and 0 TD/1 INT. Thigpen had a 45% completion percentage and 2 TD/3 INT's. It's a clear cut advantage who is going to control the ball more effective down the stretch of the game and that is the Houston back ups.
Also remember that Croyle who we believe will play the biggest hunk of time in this game, missed all the offseason practices because he was rehabbing from knee surgery, returned to play when the Chiefs started training camp two weeks ago. So he will be rusty still without a doubt. In the 4th quarter it will be Rex Grossman in for Houston and Thigpen in for Kansas City; we much rather back the QB with Super Bowl experience over Thigpen. Experience down the stretch is key in these August games.
Some interesting notes Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 preseason games as a dog. In head coach Gary Kubiaks tenure they are 7-3-2 ATS in preseason games. The Chiefs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games. Houston has won three of the last four meetings in the preseason and regular season both straight up and ATS.
Wunderdog MLB 08/15/2009
Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: San Francisco at New York Mets (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 7 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Houston at Milwaukee (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -140 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.9)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Houston at Milwaukee (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +140 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)
Game: San Diego at St. Louis (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on St. Louis -230 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.2)
Game: San Diego at St. Louis (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. Louis -1.5 runs -120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: San Francisco at New York Mets (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 7 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Houston at Milwaukee (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -140 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.9)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Houston at Milwaukee (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +140 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)
Game: San Diego at St. Louis (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on St. Louis -230 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.2)
Game: San Diego at St. Louis (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. Louis -1.5 runs -120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
