premium play
MTi Sports
Atlanta at Miami
Play: Atlanta +4
The Hawks were completely flat in game two, after their blowout win in game one. They should be ready here, while the Heat should be the team that comes out flat.Miami hot 58% from three-point range in game two, making 15-of-26. Dwyane Wade was 6-of-10 from the arc and Daquean Cook bested him, making 6-of-9 from long range off the bench.This is the kiss-of-death for the Heat. Miami is 0-9 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, failing to cover by an average of 13.7 ppg. More to the point, the Heat are 0-18-1 ATS when they are at home with rest off a game in which they attempted at least ten threes and made more than 45% of them. They lost each of their last 14 straight up, many times as a favorite.In addition, Miami is 0-6 ATS (-13.6 ppg) at home after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. Dwyane Wade, scored 33 points in game two, but he also committed five turnovers. This is relevant because the Heat are 0-8 ATS (-10.1 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Dwyane Wade had at least 5 turnovers. Miami is also 0-6 ATS (-12.1 ppg) at home after two away games in which Udonis Haslem took fewer than 10 shots in each and 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) at home after a win in which Mario Chalmers played fewer than 30 minutes.The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Josh Smith had a double-double. With the Hawks’ veteran leadership at the guard spots, they should get their home court advantage back right here.
MTi’s FORECAST: Atlanta 94 MIAMI 92
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