THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (2-0 SU and ATS) at (7) New Orleans (0-2 SU and ATS)
The freefalling Hornets return to New Orleans Arena for Game 3 in a must-win situation against the scorching-hot Nuggets.
For the second straight game Wednesday, Denver hammered New Orleans in posting a 108-93 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Chauncey Billups, who had 36 points in the Game 1 blowout, was again the catalyst, scoring 31 points to pace five Nuggets in double figures, including Carmelo Anthony, who chipped in 22 points and nine assists. The Nuggets are on a 16-3 SU tear (12-7 ATS) since the regular season, breaking 100 points 18 times in that stretch, including the first two games of this series.
Chris Paul (14 points, 13 assists) and David West (21 points, 10 rebounds) both had double-doubles in Game 2, but it wasn’t nearly enough for New Orleans, which committed 17 turnovers and forced just six. The Hornets have dropped their last four games (1-3 ATS) and are now 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts. However, the four-game skid has all come on the road against playoff teams, as they dropped the last two games of the regular season at Houston and at San Antonio.
Denver is 4-2 SU and ATS against New Orleans this season, winning and cashing in the last three meetings and covering in four of the last five. The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, though the Nuggets prevailed in their last trip to the Big Easy exactly one month ago, winning 101-88 as a four-point underdog.
New Orleans, which reached the second round last year before falling to the Spurs in seven games, went 28-13 SU (19-21-1 ATS) at home in the regular season. Denver, which hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and is still just 6-23 in its last 29 playoff contests, went 21-20 SU and ATS on the road in the regular season.
The Nuggets are on positive ATS streaks of 10-4 overall, 10-3 against the West, 9-3 against winning teams and 4-0 against the Southwest Division, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-13 as a playoff underdog and 2-8 in their last 10 first-round playoff games.
The Hornets are on a bundle of pointspread purges, including 2-5 overall, 0-5 against the Northwest Division, 2-7 against the Western Conference, 2-6 laying points and 6-14 after a SU loss. However, New Orleans is on positive ATS runs of 8-2 as a playoff chalk, 8-1 laying less than five points in the postseason, 17-8 as a home favorite of less than five points and 49-23-3 in Saturday games.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 10-4 against winning teams, 7-3 in the West and 5-2 after a SU win, but the under is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six road games and 19-7 in their last 26 conference quarterfinal contests. The over for New Orleans is on runs of 10-4 against the Northwest Division and 4-0 after a SU loss, but otherwise the squad is on “under” stretches of 7-2 at home and 10-4 with the Hornets favored.
Finally, the first two games of this series barely hurdled the posted price, and the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
(3) San Antonio (1-2 SU and ATS) vs. (6) Dallas (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Mavericks look to gain a commanding 3-1 advantage in their opening-round best-of-7 Western Conference playoff series when they host the Spurs in the American Airlines Center.
Dallas entertained San Antonio for Game 3 on Thursday and delivered an 88-67 beating, easily covering as a five-point favorite. The Mavs held San Antonio to 32.1 percent shooting and just two Spurs reached double-digits in scoring. Dallas got 20 points and seven rebounds from perennial All-Star Dirk Nowitzki.
San Antonio fell behind by 26 points before the midpoint of the third quarter Thursday, prompting coach Gregg Popovich to pull his starters and rest them for Game 4. As a result, superstar Tim Duncan had just four points and two rebounds and played just 15½ minutes, while Tony Parker had 12 points in less than 20 minutes of court action.
The Spurs have still won five of their last seven overall, but have only covered one of their last four. They’re trying to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the ninth time in the last 13 years. The Mavericks, who have won nine of their last 12 dating to the regular season (7-5 ATS), are attempted to get past the first round after going one-and-done in the playoffs each of the last two years, losing to Golden State in six games (1-5 ATS) in 2007 and then falling to New Orleans in five games (2-3 ATS) last season.
Despite two victories by the host in this series, the road team has still dominated this Texas-sized rivalry, going 15-8 ATS in the last 23 meetings, with the underdog posting a 16-7 ATS mark in those 23 games. However, by cashing in two of the first three in this series, Dallas is now 19-9 ATS in the last 28 series clashes.
San Antonio is 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 conference quarterfinal games, but the Spurs are on pointspread slides of 5-11 against the Western Conference, 2-7 as a playoff ‘dog and 1-5 against Southwest Division teams.
Dallas is on ATS slides 0-5 as a playoff favorite of up to 4½ points, 3-8 as a playoff favorite overall and 6-13 after an ATS win, but the Mavs are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturdays and 5-2 as a favorite of up to 4½ points.
Thursday’s game stayed well below the posted total, after the first two contests in this series hurdled the number. Going back to the regular season, the over remains on a 4-2 streak in this rivalry.
The under has been the play in each of the Spurs’ last six as a playoff ‘dog, but they’re otherwise on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 overall, 6-3-1 when installed as a road ‘dog, 5-3 in first-round postseason action and 11-6-1 as a ‘dog of less than five points. Dallas is on “over” runs of 16-8 as a chalk, 13-6 as a home favorite and 4-2 against teams with winning records. However, the under is 6-2 in the Mavericks last eight at home and 14-3 in their last 17 as a playoff favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) L.A. Lakers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at (8) Utah (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Jazz got back in this best-of-7 series with a thrilling Game 3 victory and now try to knot things up when they once again host the Lakers inside EnergySolutions Arena.
Deron Williams hit a fadeaway jumper with less than three seconds to play Thursday to lift Utah to an 88-86 victory in Game 3 in Salt Lake City. Utah, which had dropped three straight games in Los Angeles by double digits – one in the regular-season finale and two in this playoff series – was down 13 points late in the third quarter and trailed by eight when the fourth quarter began. However, the Jazz outscored the Lakers 28-18 in the final stanza to win it, thanks in large part to a monster game from center Carlos Boozer (23 points, 20 rebounds).
Los Angeles shot just 36.8 percent from the field in Game 3 and got destroyed on the glass (55-40 rebounding discrepancy). Superstar Kobe Bryant finished with 18 points, but he misfired on 19 of 24 field-goal tries, including clanking a 35-foot potential game-winner at the buzzer. The Lakers, who saw a four-game winning streak end, were also atrocious from the free-throw line (16-for-26) in Game 3.
Despite Thursday’s result, the Lakers are still 9-2 in their last 11 games (but only 6-5 ATS), while the Jazz are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 (though they have cashed in each of the last two games of this series).
The home team has won all six meetings between these squads this season (5-1 ATS) and including last year’s playoff series that went six games, the host has taken 11 of the last 12 in his rivalry and is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 series battles. Overall, going back to Game 5 of the playoffs from last season, Los Angeles is still 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight against the Jazz. However, the Lakers are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 trips to Salt Lake, losing eight of the last 11 at EnergySolutions Arena outright.
Utah has now won 17 of its last 19 contests at home and is 34-8 as a host this season (23-19 ATS). Los Angeles is 29-13 on the road (23-19 ATS), including 8-4 in the last 12 (7-5 ATS).
The Lakers are still on ATS streaks of 6-2 in first-round playoff action, 5-2 as a favorite, 5-2 when playing on Saturday. However, Phil Jackson’s squad has failed to cover in five of its last six on the road and six of its last seven as a playoff chalk.
By cashing in the last two contests, Utah is now on ATS surges of 10-4 in first-round playoff games and 4-1 when playing after one day off. However, the negative pointspread streaks are still plentiful for the Jazz, including 4-11 overall, 3-8 at home, 4-13 versus winning teams, 4-10 against the Western Conference, 0-4 on Saturday, 0-5 after a SU win and 4-15 as an underdog
Thursday’s low-scoring contest snapped an 8-0 “over” streak in this rivalry (5-0 “over” in playoff meetings). Prior to Game 3, both teams had scored at least 100 points in eight consecutive meetings. Still, the over is 19-7 in the last 26 head-to-head battles.
Additionally, as it pertains to the total, Utah remains on “over” runs of 10-3 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 9-3 versus the Western Conference, 35-18 versus the Pacific Division, 41-20-2 as an underdog, 6-3 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 as a playoff pup. For the Lakers, the over is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-1 against the Northwest Division, 8-1 versus teams with a winning record and 11-4 on Saturday.
Conversely, the under is 12-2 in Utah’s last 14 home games, 7-2 in L.A.’s last nine on the highway, 12-1 in the Lakers’ last 13 after a SU defeat and 12-5 when the Lakers play after one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) at (5) Miami (1-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing home-court advantage in this best-of-7 series with a Game 2 blowout win in Atlanta, the Heat now return to American Airlines Arena for Game 3 against the Hawks.
Miami rebounded from a dismal Game 1 performance to rip Atlanta 108-93 Wednesday as a five-point road underdog. Dwyane Wade (33 points, seven assists) had a big night, but he also got plenty of support from Daequan Cook (20 points), who made 6 of 9 three-point attempts, and Jermaine O’Neal (20 points). After producing just 64 points on 36.6 percent shooting in Game 1 (4-for-23 from three-point range), Miami shot a torrid 55.6 percent from the floor Wednesday, hitting 15 of 26 from beyond the arc (57.7 percent).
The Heat have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts.
Atlanta put six players in double figures in Game 3, but none reached 20 points, with Mike Bibby leading the way at 18. Josh Smith (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Al Horford (11 points, 11 rebounds) both posted double-doubles for the Hawks, who shot 44.2 percent overall but just 30 percent (6 of 20) from long distance. Atlanta, which rolled 90-64 as a 4½-point chalk in Game 1, is now 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests.
The Hawks are 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in six clashes with the Heat this season, and the ATS winner has now alternated in each of the last seven meetings. Miami is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 battles with Atlanta, including 12-3 ATS at home.
Miami went 28-13 SU (20-20-1 ATS) in South Beach this season, while Atlanta was just 16-25 SU (21-20 ATS) on the highway.
Along with their current 4-1 ATS uptick, the Heat are on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 as a favorite, 9-2 as a chalk of less than five points, 4-1 against Southeast Division foes and 6-2 at home. However, they are also carrying ATS skids of 0-4 as a playoff chalk, 17-35-1 laying points in Miami and 20-43-3 after a SU win.
The Hawks, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 as a pup, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-7 after a double-digit home loss, 3-7 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 going on two days’ rest.
The over for Miami is on rolls of 11-3-1 at home, 9-3-1 with the Heat a home chalk and 7-2 against the East, but the under for the Heat is on streaks of 6-1 against winning teams and 6-2 after a SU win. For Atlanta, the “under” is on tears of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 with the Hawks as a ‘dog and 5-2 in the Southeast Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of six meetings this year – with Wednesday’s contest the only one to clear the posted price – and the under is on 5-2 in the last seven battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-7) at Boston (10-6)
After a thrilling meeting in Beantown on Friday night, the Red Sox and Yankees continue their weekend series at Fenway Park, with New York’s A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20 ERA) scheduled to pitch against former teammate Josh Beckett (2-1, 3.79) in a battle of hard-throwing right-handers.
Boston got a two-run home run from Jason Bay in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie Friday’s game at 4-4, then won it on Kevin Youkilis’ walk-off shot in the bottom of the 11th inning for a 5-4 victory. The Red Sox have now won eight in a row, outscoring their last five opponents by a combined 36-10. As part of the eight-game winning streak, Boston is 7-0 at home, 6-0 against right-handed starters and 5-0 versus division foes. Additionally, the Red Sox are 72-31 in their last 103 games at Fenway Park.
New York had a three-game winning streak snapped with last night’s setback, and while the team has scored 37 runs in its last seven contests, the pitching staff has surrendered 55 runs. Still, Joe Girardi’s club is on surges of 21-9 overall since last season, 12-5 against the A.L. East, 5-1 versus right-handed starters and 16-5 on Saturday.
Even with Friday’s heartbreaking defeat, the Yankees are still 7-4 in their last 11 matchups against the Red Sox (4-2 in Boston). Also, the visitor has had the majority of success lately, winning nine of the last 14 battles.
Beckett picked up a 6-4 home win over Baltimore in is last start a week ago today, despite allowing four runs (three earned) in six innings. Since a dominating season debut when he held the Rays to one run on two hits while striking out 10 in seven innings, Beckett has given up a combined eight runs (seven earned), 14 hits and six walks with 10 strikeouts over 12 innings in his last two starts.
In 12 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, Beckett is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA, but he went 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in four starts last year. Also, he’s produced five straight quality starts against New York (2.86 ERA).
Burnett got a no-decision in Sunday’s outing against Cleveland, allowing three runs on three hits in 6 1/3 innings, but he walked seven and struck out just two in his first start at new Yankee Stadium. However, New York rallied for a 7-3 victory, improving to 3-0 in Burnett’s three starts. Burnett has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts going back to last year when he was with Toronto.
Going back to his days with Toronto, Burnett is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox, including 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in three games at Fenway Park (one earned run allowed in 22 2/3 innings). Last year, Burnett pitched in Boston twice, giving up just one unearned run on six hits and five walks while striking out 11 in 13 2/3 innings, winning by scores of 3-0 and 8-1.
Last night’s contest landed right on the posted total, but the over is still 5-2-1 in the last eight series meetings overall and 21-7-1 in the last 28 battles at Fenway. Additionally, the “over” is on streaks of 10-1-1 for the Red Sox overall, 5-1-1 for the Red Sox at home, 7-3-1 for New York overall, 5-1-1 for New York against A.L. East foes and 8-3 for New York against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Craig Davis
