Big Al
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over Dallas.
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Hornets minus the points over Denver.
At 1:10pm our NL EAST Total of the Year is on the Washtington Nationals and New York Mets 'over' the total.
At 7:05pm, our 5* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Year is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.
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At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over Dallas.
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Hornets minus the points over Denver.
At 1:10pm our NL EAST Total of the Year is on the Washtington Nationals and New York Mets 'over' the total.
At 7:05pm, our 5* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Year is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Wunderdog Bonus Play
Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: First Half UNDER 99 -110
Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: First Half UNDER 99 -110
There is a contrast between these teams’ styles at home and on the road. Particularly in the situation that applies here as we have a top 10 offense against a top 10 defense. This should be a statement game for the Hornets, and their best statement can be made on the defensive end, where I expect them to come out playing very intensely. There is also a situation that is live for this game that shows when the total is in this range, a team off a 10+ point win that is well rested (five games or less in 14 days), has shown the first half to go UNDER to the tune of 46-17. That is 73% of the time. As a result, I will play the first-half UNDER.
Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 300,000♦ Hawks
2. 50,000♦ Royals
1. Hawks- You really think handicapping Game 3 is as easy as: "The Hawks are bad on the road, therefore the Heat will win at home." Guys, you can take all of those trends about the Hawks past road play and throw them out the window. If you know how terrible the Hawks have been on the road, then you better believe that Vegas knows this too. Consider: If Atlanta is so terrible on the road, then why are they only slight underdogs in this spot? I've told you once & I'll tell you again: Vegas is not in the business of handing out freebies!
So let's breakdown Game 2, and you'll see why a repeat performance by the Heat is unlikely. Wednesday's 108-93 wallop of the Hawks happened for three reasons: A. Dwayne Wade went bonkers, scoring 33 points on 11 of 20 shooting (which was expected after a terrible Game 1 effort). B. Joe Johnson played terrible, with just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting. And C. The Hawks ultra-athletic frontcourt got outplayed by a Heat frontline coming off an embarassing effort in Game 1.
While we can expect D. Wade to continue to play well, two things I don't see happening again are Joe Johnson playing poorly and the Hawks frontcourt getting outplayed. When Wade played like garbage in Game 1, I told you to expect him to come out highly motivated in Game 2 and he did... I'll tell you the same thing about Joe Johnson, as the Hawks star guard will not be held down two games in a row. Also, for O'Neal, Haslem, and the rest of the Heat forwards to outplay Smith, Williams and Horford is a disgrace, because we all know the Hawks are far more talented in their frontcourt. Sorry Heat-backers, but the truth is the truth, and I highly doubt we'll see that kind of effort out of Jermaine O'Neal two games in a row.
Finally, besides Dwayne Wade's outstanding effort, the Heat won Game 2 for one other reason: 3-point shooting. Rest-assured, as someone who's followed them very closely this season, the Heat cannot & will not repeat their 15 of 27 barrage from the 3-point line tonight. Guys, we're talking about a team that shoots 35% from long range on the season, so to expect them to shoot 22 percentage points higher (57% in Game 2) again tonight is ridiculous. In fact, I'm counting on the Heat to go "3-point happy" again tonight, and when the shots stop falling, the Hawks will reassert themselves as the superior TEAM in this series. Heat may have Wade, but Hawks are MUCH better team overall. Don't believe the hype, Altanta is the play Saturday night.
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Royals- Although Davies was a little shaky early on in his last start, there's no question you give him the edge here in tonight's pitching match up. Despite the 5 walks in his last one, two of Davies' three starts this season have been quality efforts, and the fact he's posted a 2.89 ERA thus far only lends credence to the fact his turnaround last season was the for real. He lost all three starts against the Tigers last season, but look for a better outcome this time around.
It doesn't hurt that his counterpart Zach Miner is coming off an ugly ugly effort vs the White Sox, in which he allowed a whopping 8 runs in just 3 1/3 innings! True, we can all agree the cold weather has a lot to with that, but I'm not convinced that Miner is simply going to turn it around tonight. Yes, he had success against the Royals last season, but he did lose his last start against them, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings back in September.
While the Tigers continue to hit lefties well, their .265 average against righties is nothing to write home about, and they proved that by getting nowhere fast against Zach Greinke in yesterday's 6-1 loss! Of course, Greinke is a superior pitcher to Davies, but fact remains the Tigers do not hit righties particularly well. Also of note, the Royals offense should get a nice boost tonight from the return of Jose Guillen, who hasn't played since April 9th.
Bottom line, I'm looking for the Royals to build off yesterday's dominant effort by Greinke with another strong effort from Davies in this one. The Tigers have been unimpressive on the road (5-15 L20 away), while the Royals are an outstanding 9-0 in their L9 games as a home favorite! Kansas City takes care of business at Kauffman Saturday!
Take the Royals behind Davies over the Tigers and Miner in this MLB match up
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
2. 50,000♦ Royals
1. Hawks- You really think handicapping Game 3 is as easy as: "The Hawks are bad on the road, therefore the Heat will win at home." Guys, you can take all of those trends about the Hawks past road play and throw them out the window. If you know how terrible the Hawks have been on the road, then you better believe that Vegas knows this too. Consider: If Atlanta is so terrible on the road, then why are they only slight underdogs in this spot? I've told you once & I'll tell you again: Vegas is not in the business of handing out freebies!
So let's breakdown Game 2, and you'll see why a repeat performance by the Heat is unlikely. Wednesday's 108-93 wallop of the Hawks happened for three reasons: A. Dwayne Wade went bonkers, scoring 33 points on 11 of 20 shooting (which was expected after a terrible Game 1 effort). B. Joe Johnson played terrible, with just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting. And C. The Hawks ultra-athletic frontcourt got outplayed by a Heat frontline coming off an embarassing effort in Game 1.
While we can expect D. Wade to continue to play well, two things I don't see happening again are Joe Johnson playing poorly and the Hawks frontcourt getting outplayed. When Wade played like garbage in Game 1, I told you to expect him to come out highly motivated in Game 2 and he did... I'll tell you the same thing about Joe Johnson, as the Hawks star guard will not be held down two games in a row. Also, for O'Neal, Haslem, and the rest of the Heat forwards to outplay Smith, Williams and Horford is a disgrace, because we all know the Hawks are far more talented in their frontcourt. Sorry Heat-backers, but the truth is the truth, and I highly doubt we'll see that kind of effort out of Jermaine O'Neal two games in a row.
Finally, besides Dwayne Wade's outstanding effort, the Heat won Game 2 for one other reason: 3-point shooting. Rest-assured, as someone who's followed them very closely this season, the Heat cannot & will not repeat their 15 of 27 barrage from the 3-point line tonight. Guys, we're talking about a team that shoots 35% from long range on the season, so to expect them to shoot 22 percentage points higher (57% in Game 2) again tonight is ridiculous. In fact, I'm counting on the Heat to go "3-point happy" again tonight, and when the shots stop falling, the Hawks will reassert themselves as the superior TEAM in this series. Heat may have Wade, but Hawks are MUCH better team overall. Don't believe the hype, Altanta is the play Saturday night.
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Royals- Although Davies was a little shaky early on in his last start, there's no question you give him the edge here in tonight's pitching match up. Despite the 5 walks in his last one, two of Davies' three starts this season have been quality efforts, and the fact he's posted a 2.89 ERA thus far only lends credence to the fact his turnaround last season was the for real. He lost all three starts against the Tigers last season, but look for a better outcome this time around.
It doesn't hurt that his counterpart Zach Miner is coming off an ugly ugly effort vs the White Sox, in which he allowed a whopping 8 runs in just 3 1/3 innings! True, we can all agree the cold weather has a lot to with that, but I'm not convinced that Miner is simply going to turn it around tonight. Yes, he had success against the Royals last season, but he did lose his last start against them, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings back in September.
While the Tigers continue to hit lefties well, their .265 average against righties is nothing to write home about, and they proved that by getting nowhere fast against Zach Greinke in yesterday's 6-1 loss! Of course, Greinke is a superior pitcher to Davies, but fact remains the Tigers do not hit righties particularly well. Also of note, the Royals offense should get a nice boost tonight from the return of Jose Guillen, who hasn't played since April 9th.
Bottom line, I'm looking for the Royals to build off yesterday's dominant effort by Greinke with another strong effort from Davies in this one. The Tigers have been unimpressive on the road (5-15 L20 away), while the Royals are an outstanding 9-0 in their L9 games as a home favorite! Kansas City takes care of business at Kauffman Saturday!
Take the Royals behind Davies over the Tigers and Miner in this MLB match up
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------GL GUYS
Wunderdog
CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #7 at 3:40 PM Eastern
CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #7 at 3:40 PM Eastern
Top pick: #1 (SALUTE THE COUNT) - Talented turf performer has been freshened-up by trainer Mike Maker since a "gutsy" win at Gulfstream in fast time early in that meet. Working well for this and he's beaten better fields than this in the past. Draws the hedge and he's the horse to beat.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #5 (Cool Hero) - This race doesn't have a lot of speed on paper so this runner's fine tactical speed is dangerous. Held well last out at the Fair Grounds to finish fourth in a race with a fast pace. He's worked three times since and is a win threat.
3rd pick: #2 (He Loves Me Not) - Runner was recently re-claimed by the Billy Hays/Joe Woodard duo and he won his only previous grass race last fall for these connections. Contender at square odds.
4th pick: #11 (Lord Robyn) - Likes the infield and a recent second-place finish at Keeneland on their "poly" should set him up for a good try this afternoon, though the post (11) is a bit of a negative.
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Nuggets - Know what's amazing about George Karl's troupe? It's not the offensive numbers it's put up, sheesh, that's ultimately been the frustrating part of this team, because you don't know when it'll show up. Now, the intangible is not whether or not the Nuggets can outscore an opponent, it's whether or not they're going to outscore an opponent, or adjust and play defense to stifle the opposition.
All of a sudden, this is a balanced team. And trust me, I know Denver has given up triple figs in 11 of its last 16 games; but it's also won eight of those 11 contests. And when they're haven't allowed three-digit totals, the Nuggets have won eight straight now - including the first two in this series.
Thus, if Denver was at home and likely could have outran and outgunned New Orleans in a high-scoring affair, you have to wonder why it was concentrating more on defense in the Mile High City. Perhaps to get in a groove for the trip to the Big Easy?
Maybe because the defense Karl has employed has completely negated New Orleans' pick-and-roll offense Chris Paul executes. And with rumors circulating about slight dissension in the ranks, because in times of desperation the ball is being forced into Paul's hands much more, this is the perfect time to go for the jugular. New Orleans has displayed no cohesiveness.
The Nuggets can deliver a knockout punch with a win tonight. I'll take the points and look for an outright.
5 Dime Mavericks - San Antonio is finished, end of story. With the series back in Dallas, we're about to see the end of the Spurs nucleus/dynasty/roster ... whatever it is ... because at this point there are too many younger powerhouses ready to emerge, and there's still the matter of the Lakers. The Spurs have seen their glory days with this lineup, but against the Mavs, in Dallas, I just don't see it. Ginobili is out, Duncan is hurting and Parker feels the pressure to lead. And knowing how vulnerable the Spurs are right now, Dallas will come harder tonight, knowing how important it is to go up 3-1 before heading back to San Antonio. All Dallas here.
Free pick - Lakers
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15 Dime Nuggets - Know what's amazing about George Karl's troupe? It's not the offensive numbers it's put up, sheesh, that's ultimately been the frustrating part of this team, because you don't know when it'll show up. Now, the intangible is not whether or not the Nuggets can outscore an opponent, it's whether or not they're going to outscore an opponent, or adjust and play defense to stifle the opposition.
All of a sudden, this is a balanced team. And trust me, I know Denver has given up triple figs in 11 of its last 16 games; but it's also won eight of those 11 contests. And when they're haven't allowed three-digit totals, the Nuggets have won eight straight now - including the first two in this series.
Thus, if Denver was at home and likely could have outran and outgunned New Orleans in a high-scoring affair, you have to wonder why it was concentrating more on defense in the Mile High City. Perhaps to get in a groove for the trip to the Big Easy?
Maybe because the defense Karl has employed has completely negated New Orleans' pick-and-roll offense Chris Paul executes. And with rumors circulating about slight dissension in the ranks, because in times of desperation the ball is being forced into Paul's hands much more, this is the perfect time to go for the jugular. New Orleans has displayed no cohesiveness.
The Nuggets can deliver a knockout punch with a win tonight. I'll take the points and look for an outright.
5 Dime Mavericks - San Antonio is finished, end of story. With the series back in Dallas, we're about to see the end of the Spurs nucleus/dynasty/roster ... whatever it is ... because at this point there are too many younger powerhouses ready to emerge, and there's still the matter of the Lakers. The Spurs have seen their glory days with this lineup, but against the Mavs, in Dallas, I just don't see it. Ginobili is out, Duncan is hurting and Parker feels the pressure to lead. And knowing how vulnerable the Spurs are right now, Dallas will come harder tonight, knowing how important it is to go up 3-1 before heading back to San Antonio. All Dallas here.
Free pick - Lakers
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SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
MLB PAY PICKS FOR SATURDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Washington (Cabrera)
METS (PELFREY) -177 (1)
YANKEES (BURNETT) +135 (2)
Boston (Beckett)
Toronto (Burres)
WHITE SOX (BUEHRLE) -155 (3)
Seattle (Silva)
ANGELS (ORTEGA) -115 (4)
PITTSBURGH (DUKE) +121 (5)
San Diego (Hill)
Atlanta (Lowe)
CINCINNATI (ARROYO) +113 (6)
CUBS (MARSHALL) -105 (7)
St. Louis (Boggs)
SAN FRANCISCO (JOHNSON) +115 (8)
Arizona (Scherzer)
DODGERS (MCDONALD) +115 (9)
Colorado (Jimenez)
Minnesota (Slowey)
CLEVELAND (PAVANO) -130 (10)
Texas (Feldman)
BALTIMORE (HENDRICKSON) -115 (11)
DETROIT (MINER) +115 (12)
Kansas City (Davies)
MLB PAY PICKS FOR SATURDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Washington (Cabrera)
METS (PELFREY) -177 (1)
YANKEES (BURNETT) +135 (2)
Boston (Beckett)
Toronto (Burres)
WHITE SOX (BUEHRLE) -155 (3)
Seattle (Silva)
ANGELS (ORTEGA) -115 (4)
PITTSBURGH (DUKE) +121 (5)
San Diego (Hill)
Atlanta (Lowe)
CINCINNATI (ARROYO) +113 (6)
CUBS (MARSHALL) -105 (7)
St. Louis (Boggs)
SAN FRANCISCO (JOHNSON) +115 (8)
Arizona (Scherzer)
DODGERS (MCDONALD) +115 (9)
Colorado (Jimenez)
Minnesota (Slowey)
CLEVELAND (PAVANO) -130 (10)
Texas (Feldman)
BALTIMORE (HENDRICKSON) -115 (11)
DETROIT (MINER) +115 (12)
Kansas City (Davies)
