4 Unit Play. #524. Take the Memphis Tigers -9 over the Maryland Terrapins (Saturady @ 3:20pm est). I took a Pass on Monday in cbb as there were no games, so today we will roll with 2 plays to average out to our 7 plays a week (1 cbb pod per day). If you wait on this play, you could get -8.5 or better as the line keeps dropping. I understand that Memphis had a horrible first round game. This is why I like them even more in this contest. I actually like Maryland as a team overall. What Coach Gary has done with this crop of players is remarkable and this is the best coaching job I think Gary has done ever with the talent level that he had. But, these boys have come together extremely well and too care of busienss against a sound Cal team. I can't see Memphis playing as horrible as they did in Round 1 however. If I know Calipari, although he looked relieved by not being the first ever #1 seed to go down to a #16 seed, I can only imagine he lights a fire in the ass of his players today. Remember, this team, regardless of the fact they had a terrible game, still managed to somehow win the C.S. Northridge game by 11. Let's be honest, for anyone that was watching that game, the officiating was horrendous. Memphis was in foul trouble early and often and Dozier had a terrible game as well. If it wasn't for Sallie and his 30+ points, this team would be home by now and on national headlines for the wrong reasons. Maryland at times struggles against teams who can put up a lot of points on the road. Remember, this team lost 44-85 on the road to Duke, lost 48-75 on neutral footing to Georgetown, lost 59-81 on neutral footing to Gonzaga and lost 64-93 to Clemson on the road. So, Maryland does struggle against teams that can score at such prowess. Memphis shot 12-21 (57.1%) from the line and I expect them to do a bit better, the size of Memphis should certainly come into play as Maryland does not a great deal of bigs to stack up - especially if they get into foul trouble - and I can't imagine Mack going 0-7 from the field and Dozier going 2-7 from the field. I have the Tigers winning this game by 13-17 points today as I just don't think Maryland has the firewpower to compete and I like the fact that Memphis comes off a terrible round one performance. Having said this, props to Coach Gary on taking his team to the final 32 - really an impressive coaching job. The Memphis Tigers are 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss.
4 Unit Play. #525. Take Michigan +6.5 over Oklahoma (Saturday @ 5:40pm est). You will need some tums for this game - I understand that. But, we have a nice opportunity to cash here with Michigan as long as the refs don't completely hose us. Michigan is an extremely well coached team that I believe is hitting its stride at the right moment. If this is an ugly, low scoring game, which is what it might very well be, our team should do just fine. Remember, Michigan beat UCLA earlier this year 55-52 on neutral footing, got revenge against Duke at home and shoots a striking 75.6% from the line. I never try to knock the competition I am going against and I won't start now. I will say that although Oklahoma is a sound team, they come off a huge win over Morgan State in front of the public eye. In fact, this is the biggest public play on the board in the Tourney today. Let me ask you something...you think the biggest play on the board for the Tourney today - a saturday - has a great shot at covering? With over 72% of the public on Oklahoma, hammering the play, the line opening up at +8 off-shore and now sitting at +6.5, it makes for a nice opportunity to take the dog here in the Wolverines. Yes, it is an ugly dog - a mutt if you will. But, Michigan is very scrappy and fiery. This team plays with a lot of heart and if Oklahoma gets into foul trouble early or if this is a low-scoring contest, we are in great shape here as the public gets buried. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 4-1 ATS as a dog and Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS when facing teams with a winning % of greater than 60%. This is a nice cushion for Michigan as I believe they likely lose by a possession or two. I have Michigan winning this game at a 25% shot as well
4 Unit Play. #510. Take the Chicago Bulls +4 over the L.A. Lakers (Saturday @ 8:30pm est). We are 3-2 on the week in the NBA and I'm looking forward to our NBA Selection today on the Bulls. Like I always say, I never knock the opponent and of course, the Lakers are a solid ballclub. But, I have faded the Lakers at certain times in the year given the situation. This is one such case. The Bulls are on a roll right now. The trade for Salmons has certainly worked out as I beleive the Chicago Bulls are now one of the five deepest teams in the NBA - yes, the Bulls. Here is who the Bulls feature:
Ben Gordon
Derrick Rose
John Salmons
Tyrus Thomas
Joakim Noah
Brad Miller
Kirk Hinrich
Tim Thomas.
Now, other teams have 8 players that regularly play. But others team do not have the caliber of these 8 players. Can you find me 8 players who see action for a team who were all regular starters for several years running in either this team or another team? You will be hard pressed to do so. This new look is making a difference as this team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 having defeated the Celtics, Hornets and Rockets in that process. Let's ride the Bulls at home today as nearly 80% of the public likes the Lakers here, I like our revenge angle, the fact that we get the Bulls +4 on a Saturday night with a team that is in the playoff hunt, has covered 4 straight and 8-2 ATS over their last 10.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->