WUNDERDOG
Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -113 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Rays have been the biggest surprise of the season leading the AL East over the Red Sox and Yankees. Most of that success can be attributed to their dominance at home where they are 40-16. The road has presented a completely different story where the Rays are just 21-29. A 71.4% winning team is reduced to a 42% winning team. The Jays meanwhile, have done a good job all season at home winning 58% of their games at 29-21. James Shields is no different. The Rays are 11-1 when he takes the mound at home, but just 3-6 on the road. AJ Burnett has been outstanding of late pitching to a stellar 1.77 ERA over his last three starts. We like the Jays to take the opener at home.
Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -1.5 runs +183 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.5)
For the reasons we mentioned above, we like the Jays to take the opener at home. Tampa Bay is 8-20 against the runline vs. teams that allow 4.7 runs or less on the road this season, so will also back the Jays on the runline.
Game: Kansas City at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland -114 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
Jack Greinke spent most of last season pitching out of the bullpen, and was effective late in the year as a starter. That carried over into this season where he owned a 2.18 ERA through May 18. The mounting innings have led to a mounting ERA, as Greinke has pitched to a 5.70 ERA since. The Royals were 7-2 over his first nine starts, but have been just 4-9 since. Dallas Braden came out of the pen to pitch five strong innings allowing just one run and has been solid of late. The A's offense has awakened since scoring just nine runs in six games to score 27 over their last five and we like them in this one.