DAVE ESSLER
Monday Bonus Play – Thoughts on Others
We made a little yesterday but the Giants and Pirates kept it from being a lot. Next. Bonus Plays have been on a terrible run, but that’s just the way it goes. I choose one and it’s the wrong one. However, I choose THIS ONE that I bet last night.
Free pick: 960 LOS / 959 COL – OVER 7
Analysis: I’d rather be wrong at -125 and not see lineups than wait for 7.5. Lineups obviously matter, but some things won’t, like bullpen use, etc. OK, well, this being a late game we’re simply not going to see lineup, so, here how I see this one. We know the Rockies have started to hit again, and I suppose that could change at a moments notice, especially with 95% of the bets on the over and only a few books have gone to 7.5 (I like another game against the noise but waiting for lineups) One thing I do look at in NL totals (taking overs, which for the most part we do) is if the pitchers can hit AT ALL. Ryu can, and Matzek went 1-3 in his only game, so at least they can get the bat on the ball. Ryu at home has an ERA of 6.15 with opponents hitting .336 and that’s 39 hits in 26 innings. That is enough for even some regression to occur and us be fine.
The Rockies have seen him, and most of them have hit him. The ones that haven’t aren’t playing (Cuddyer/Gonzalez, presumably). Matzek pitched well against Atlanta at home, when the Braves weren’t mashing. This is the Dodgers on the road, so we can’t expect him to shut them down/out. Plus, at his age he’s probably on some sort of pitch count, which of course brings in the Colorado bullpen. We know what that’s all about (except yesterday and yes I am still pissed at them and the Pirates, a 6+ unit swing). The Dodgers pen has an ERA or 4.67 over the last week, whiel the Rockies is 4.45, and Colorado is actually a better “over” bet away from Coors where the totals are not so inflated. And the converse w/Ryu. His road games (smaller parks) the totals have gone 0-5, while at home he 3-1 to the over. Weather should be just fine, Dodgers didn’t travel and used some pen against Arizona, while Colorado traveled but didn’t change time zones. We just don’t see how this isn’t 3-3 at some point.
I am considering taking the Rockies RL here, as well as Cleveland. I thought I might fade Hammel (sooner or later) but Ozuna is not in CF and Jake Marisnick is, and I just can’t quite wrap my head around that, not with Jeff Baker batting second. I am thinking about taking Baltimore, I’ve done the work, but the Rays coming home and only 5-15 against LHP, I am sure many of those losses weren’t against pitchers with the potential of Chen, although we have made a living fading him.
I really want to take Seattle, but that’s an ass-load of noise to bet against, even with the Padres travelling cross-country. Not sure I get that one.
I will probably have to take Cleveland, although I have some reservations, and considering Arizona as well. We’ve got time, but on these short (Mondays and Thursdays) and tricky (new series’ start) cards, the rule for me is when in doubt, take home teams or pass.
I really wanted to try and take the Rangers, at least the RL, but Lewis showed me nothing that said I could, so we/I might take the Mariners RL there, or parlay (thank you again Giants) them with someone. We’ve probably gone to the well with STL too often, and they may well rest some people, so I actually lean Mets RL a little. Or perhaps over, dunno yet. Money says otherwise so we/I need to check a couple of things.
I cannot touch the Red Sox or the Braves right now, since they’re both so unpredictable. Money says Hamel is the right side, but anytime a team has seen a pitcher as often as Atltanta has seen Hamels, I get concerned. We’ll see what happens
Monday Bonus Play – Thoughts on Others
We made a little yesterday but the Giants and Pirates kept it from being a lot. Next. Bonus Plays have been on a terrible run, but that’s just the way it goes. I choose one and it’s the wrong one. However, I choose THIS ONE that I bet last night.
Free pick: 960 LOS / 959 COL – OVER 7
Analysis: I’d rather be wrong at -125 and not see lineups than wait for 7.5. Lineups obviously matter, but some things won’t, like bullpen use, etc. OK, well, this being a late game we’re simply not going to see lineup, so, here how I see this one. We know the Rockies have started to hit again, and I suppose that could change at a moments notice, especially with 95% of the bets on the over and only a few books have gone to 7.5 (I like another game against the noise but waiting for lineups) One thing I do look at in NL totals (taking overs, which for the most part we do) is if the pitchers can hit AT ALL. Ryu can, and Matzek went 1-3 in his only game, so at least they can get the bat on the ball. Ryu at home has an ERA of 6.15 with opponents hitting .336 and that’s 39 hits in 26 innings. That is enough for even some regression to occur and us be fine.
The Rockies have seen him, and most of them have hit him. The ones that haven’t aren’t playing (Cuddyer/Gonzalez, presumably). Matzek pitched well against Atlanta at home, when the Braves weren’t mashing. This is the Dodgers on the road, so we can’t expect him to shut them down/out. Plus, at his age he’s probably on some sort of pitch count, which of course brings in the Colorado bullpen. We know what that’s all about (except yesterday and yes I am still pissed at them and the Pirates, a 6+ unit swing). The Dodgers pen has an ERA or 4.67 over the last week, whiel the Rockies is 4.45, and Colorado is actually a better “over” bet away from Coors where the totals are not so inflated. And the converse w/Ryu. His road games (smaller parks) the totals have gone 0-5, while at home he 3-1 to the over. Weather should be just fine, Dodgers didn’t travel and used some pen against Arizona, while Colorado traveled but didn’t change time zones. We just don’t see how this isn’t 3-3 at some point.
I am considering taking the Rockies RL here, as well as Cleveland. I thought I might fade Hammel (sooner or later) but Ozuna is not in CF and Jake Marisnick is, and I just can’t quite wrap my head around that, not with Jeff Baker batting second. I am thinking about taking Baltimore, I’ve done the work, but the Rays coming home and only 5-15 against LHP, I am sure many of those losses weren’t against pitchers with the potential of Chen, although we have made a living fading him.
I really want to take Seattle, but that’s an ass-load of noise to bet against, even with the Padres travelling cross-country. Not sure I get that one.
I will probably have to take Cleveland, although I have some reservations, and considering Arizona as well. We’ve got time, but on these short (Mondays and Thursdays) and tricky (new series’ start) cards, the rule for me is when in doubt, take home teams or pass.
I really wanted to try and take the Rangers, at least the RL, but Lewis showed me nothing that said I could, so we/I might take the Mariners RL there, or parlay (thank you again Giants) them with someone. We’ve probably gone to the well with STL too often, and they may well rest some people, so I actually lean Mets RL a little. Or perhaps over, dunno yet. Money says otherwise so we/I need to check a couple of things.
I cannot touch the Red Sox or the Braves right now, since they’re both so unpredictable. Money says Hamel is the right side, but anytime a team has seen a pitcher as often as Atltanta has seen Hamels, I get concerned. We’ll see what happens
