Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Mariners are 10-0 since April 25, 2012 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base individually and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1007.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Brandon McCarthy starts the Diamondbacks are 0-11 since September 23, 2013 within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Angels are 0-13 (+$1,630) since April 10, 2013 after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base.
CHOICE TREND:
When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 11-0 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1100.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-14 since June 13, 2013 after a quality start for a net profit of $1219 when playing against.
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Mariners are 10-0 since April 25, 2012 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they left 18+ men on base individually and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1007.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Brandon McCarthy starts the Diamondbacks are 0-11 since September 23, 2013 within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Angels are 0-13 (+$1,630) since April 10, 2013 after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base.
CHOICE TREND:
When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 11-0 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $1100.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-14 since June 13, 2013 after a quality start for a net profit of $1219 when playing against.
MLB Weekend Series: Five Key Takeaways
By David Malinsky
It is time to again examine the weekend MLB results from Point Blank range, isolating some of the key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.
Cubs – On trying to come to terms with Jake Arrieta…
It was not easy to anticipate the Arrieta train rolling down the tracks – there was no rumbling of the wheels to be heard, or steam whistles bellowing. If anything, when his time with Baltimore ended LY, the last stage a 4-11/6.38 over 2012-13 combined, it appeared that his MLB ride had gone off the rails. As such, when he was dealt to the Cubs, it was met by the sound of crickets for most serious baseball analysts.
Then something happened. Chicago sent him to AAA Des Moines for seven starts, and while the 2-0/3.56 did not necessarily ring any bells, the 11.6 K’s-per-9 might have been a turning point. Suddenly Arrieta was pitching with a lot more aggression, even if it did lead to an unflattering BB rate. When he was called up to Wrigley it was a respectable 4-2/3.66 over nine starts, for a bad team heading nowhere. But even that improvement did not hint at what we have seen this season.
Through eight starts Arrieta is at 2-1/2.09. Only getting a pair of wins despite that allowance level is a result of the uniform he wears – Chicago has scored three runs or less six times behind him, and there were scoreless outings over 5 1/3 and six IP in which he did not get a decision. Which now begs the question - is this another of these small-sample surges in which baseball’s geometry has paved the way? An xFIP of 2.89 quickly answers “No”. If we drop the IP count to Arrieta’s 43, there are 159 pitchers that make the count, and he checks in at #14. Yet it is still not easy to accept.
Both the pop and command from this arm stand out. His 9.2 K’s-per-9 are far above a career 7.1, while a 2.9 BB-per-9 is well below a 3.9 precedent. You can follow those categories to mark his growing confidence – it has been 16 K’s vs. only one BB over his L2 starts. And when contact has been made, his 52.1 ground-ball rate is also a career-best.
So with Arrieta having allowed one ER or none in 11 of his 17 Chicago starts, why is it still difficult to believe? The 2014 schedule has been favorable (his DBF is #137), and there is that issue of him not being an innings eater, but off of his sparkling win at Philadelphia on Friday the latter might begin to change – the Cubs should begin to have him work deeper into games because they simply do not have a reason not to, especially if they want to elevate him to being trade bait. Maybe then there will be enough evidence to become convinced.
Braves – Ervin Santana’s “Black Magic” disappears
One of the keys to being a successful bettor over the long haul is that patience to not force a power rating when you are not comfortable with a team or performer. Hence, not feeling forced to rush something definitive on a guy like Arrieta above. And it can mean avoiding the kind of mistakes that easily could have been made, and indeed were made by many, with Santana a couple of weeks ago.
Atlanta went 5-1 in Santana’s first six starts after he came over to the NL, and his 1.99 allowance, with more K’s (43) than Hits + BB (41), was a hint of something special. There were headlines across the sports mediaverse, and many of the major Fantasy sites had writers going into minute detail to showcase where those improvements came from (run a search and you can enjoy the usual hindsight advantage reading through them). Santana did not make this page, however, because a guy that had never had a single-season ERA of lower than 3.38, and sported a career xFIP of 4.20, was not a prime candidate to “find it” in his 10th MLB season.
A degree of skepticism is a useful tool in this endeavor. This time it paid off. Over Santana’s last six starts the Braves have gone 1-5, getting out-scored by 14 runs, and he has been knocked around to a 6.44 ERA, with 56 Hits + BB vs. only 24 K’s. The irony? Look at how his overall tally through 12 starts appears - a guy that entered the season at 105-90/4.19 over his career, is now 5-3/4.09 for 2014. Or, right about where one would have projected him.
There were a couple of keys to that hot early start. Naturally changing leagues mattered, with hitters lacking both experience and quality scouting reports. But here is what is visible now that wasn’t then – of those first six games, five of the outings were against teams that currently rate #23 or lower in Runs and OPS. Some of that strong showing can be attributed to being in the right place, at the right time. That is why patience is such a bankroll virtue – had you jumped the gun on Santana’s supposed improvements, it would have been an expensive lesson learned (especially with those last six starts also playing Over at a 4-1-1 clip as well).
A’s – Josh Donaldson’s bad week
A slightly different take on the same general theme as the first two items this week – how one incorporates subsets into establishing good power ratings. It is also more emphasis about being patient, because sometimes Baseball is just Baseball. So time to talk about the week that Donaldson just went through.
Donaldson got a single in the fourth inning off of Jose Ramirez on Sunday, driving in a run. It was not a significant moment in the grand scheme of a 10-5 Oakland rout (10-0 into the 6th), but it at least closed one dark chapter of the book that is to be his career – it ended an 0-33 slide by someone that had been one of the best players in the sport since the 2012 All Star break. There were no BB in that span, with 10 K’s, and it was not just a tough week at the plate – he also committed three errors in one game, a loss to the Angels on Monday night.
This came from a player that was #3 in WAR in 2013, having a great year both offensively (.301/.384/.499) and in the field, as he blossomed at 3B after originally coming up as a catcher. He opened 2014 with a .271/.333/.534 April, then a .281/.417/.573 May, to move into the early discussion for MVP (in a league with Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, it will continue to be an uphill battle). Then starting last weekend in Baltimore, his arc changed course.
Note that the errors in the field were not the only link to possible frustrations driven by the batting slump - he was ejected from Saturday’s game by home-plate umpire Hal Gibson, for questioning the strike zone. That led Bob Melvin to try to take some pressure off by dropping him to 6th in Sunday’s lineup. And while a single off of an unsung middle reliever does not set off fireworks, it ended a run of 25 consecutive balls in play that were turned into outs, dating back to June 4th against the Yankees in the Bronx. That can wear on a player. Because of that there will be a prime focus in following Donaldson closely this week – as good as 2013 was, it was his first full-season in The Show for a late bloomer, and his history of rebounding from bad times is being written now in front of us, instead of being something on the reference shelves that we can review.
Marlins – Casey (McGehee) at the Bat
McGehee does not bring the career sample-size issues of Donaldson above – he has been around long enough to be recognized for what he is, a journeyman that is playing in his 5th different MLB uniform since coming up in 2008. He returned for an opportunity to resuscitate faded MLB dreams with the Marlins this season, after spending 2013 in Japan (he did help lead the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles to a championship). For Miami, McGehee was cheap veteran fodder to fill out a roster, in what was expected to be a transition year before the team was good enough to compete.
Then we all wake up to begin our processes on June 16th, and find the Marlins just a game out in the NL East, and McGehee #8 in the NL in batting average and #7 in rbi’s. Cue visions of a major movie concept and start lining up the actors to play the lead – a non-descript veteran finds his soul in Japan, and returns to become a star. But this may turn out to be a different Hollywood – not the one near Los Angeles that creates dreams for movie screens, but the one between Miami and Fort Lauderdale that has seen better days. This may only be the short-term magic of Baseball.
When you see a clean-up hitter playing 3B with a lot of rbi’s, there is the natural assumption of power. Except McGehee has hardly produced any – just one HR over 289 PA’s. That is not a misprint – a cleanup hitter has gone to the plate 289 times, and has managed one HR. There are 244 players that have at least 150 PA’s so far, and the only ones with a lower rate then McGehee’s 1.4 percent of HR/FB are J. J. Hardy, Erig Sogard, Conor Gillaspie, James Jones, Adeiny Hechavarria and Norichika Aoki. None of them will be batting clean-up any time soon.
So just what in the hell has happened? The sort of thing that Baseball allows, over a short cycle – McGehee has hit an astonishing .411 with runners in scoring position (RISP), going 30-73 to drive in 37 runs. That is an amazing efficiency. But here is the problem – only four of those hits were doubles, with no triples or HR’s. Batted balls have simply found more geometric room than is available over larger samples, and note the outlier that McGehee’s .362 BABIP is over his career norm of .294. Yes, there will be those that will attempt to call his performances “clutch”, but ignore them in setting your ratings - it has been well-established through the years that batting in high-leverage situations is not a separate skill. Over time, hitters produce in those settings in a manner that closely correlates to their overall skill level.
It has been a fabulous ride for McGehee to this point, but without any real pop coming from his bat, those numbers have only one way to go. As they decline so will the Miami production, given how little margin for error the Marlins bring to the diamond each day, with that team .321 BABIP continuing to flash at us as a warning sign.
Royals – Revisiting a coaching change
Time to shift from individual players to a team here, although it still means staying on the track of sorting through sample sizes to sharpen your ratings. A couple of weeks ago Kansas City became a prime topic here, as yet another change was made at hitting coach. That spot had been a revolving door in recent seasons for the Royals, and because the shuffle coincided at a time in which they brought up several promising young prospects, it may have directly impeded the growth of several of those players.
Fast forward and the story has been profound. Since Dale Sveum took over they have gone on a 12-4 surge, scoring 5.1 runs per game, and because of the Detroit vulnerabilities have climbed to within 1.5 games of first place in the AL Central, heading into this week’s key series. While there is once again the issue of a small sample size, when a handicapper can put some meat behind the performances it is something that can be taken to the betting windows.
One of the issues discussed with Sveum’s promotion was that as a former manager he had plenty of experience in dealing with the psyche of players. When you watch the Kansas City offense now it does not come across as a case of baseball correcting itself, after too many bad early bounces, but instead a looser and more confident lineup at the plate. Winning then reinforces that, and with nine of those 12 victories coming by multiple runs, six by four or more, it makes the momentum even more genuine.
The Royals have played solid defense. The starting rotation is sound, and gets deeper when Bruce Chen returns. Closer Greg Holland is sitting on back-to-back seasons of 1.21 and 1.35 in ERA and 1.68 and 1.75 in xFIP. With those factors added to the mix, you might want to designate everything from May 29 forward as a key subset when rating the Royals – that change at hitting coach may indeed have been a catalyst to turn an under-achieving team around.
By David Malinsky
It is time to again examine the weekend MLB results from Point Blank range, isolating some of the key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.
Cubs – On trying to come to terms with Jake Arrieta…
It was not easy to anticipate the Arrieta train rolling down the tracks – there was no rumbling of the wheels to be heard, or steam whistles bellowing. If anything, when his time with Baltimore ended LY, the last stage a 4-11/6.38 over 2012-13 combined, it appeared that his MLB ride had gone off the rails. As such, when he was dealt to the Cubs, it was met by the sound of crickets for most serious baseball analysts.
Then something happened. Chicago sent him to AAA Des Moines for seven starts, and while the 2-0/3.56 did not necessarily ring any bells, the 11.6 K’s-per-9 might have been a turning point. Suddenly Arrieta was pitching with a lot more aggression, even if it did lead to an unflattering BB rate. When he was called up to Wrigley it was a respectable 4-2/3.66 over nine starts, for a bad team heading nowhere. But even that improvement did not hint at what we have seen this season.
Through eight starts Arrieta is at 2-1/2.09. Only getting a pair of wins despite that allowance level is a result of the uniform he wears – Chicago has scored three runs or less six times behind him, and there were scoreless outings over 5 1/3 and six IP in which he did not get a decision. Which now begs the question - is this another of these small-sample surges in which baseball’s geometry has paved the way? An xFIP of 2.89 quickly answers “No”. If we drop the IP count to Arrieta’s 43, there are 159 pitchers that make the count, and he checks in at #14. Yet it is still not easy to accept.
Both the pop and command from this arm stand out. His 9.2 K’s-per-9 are far above a career 7.1, while a 2.9 BB-per-9 is well below a 3.9 precedent. You can follow those categories to mark his growing confidence – it has been 16 K’s vs. only one BB over his L2 starts. And when contact has been made, his 52.1 ground-ball rate is also a career-best.
So with Arrieta having allowed one ER or none in 11 of his 17 Chicago starts, why is it still difficult to believe? The 2014 schedule has been favorable (his DBF is #137), and there is that issue of him not being an innings eater, but off of his sparkling win at Philadelphia on Friday the latter might begin to change – the Cubs should begin to have him work deeper into games because they simply do not have a reason not to, especially if they want to elevate him to being trade bait. Maybe then there will be enough evidence to become convinced.
Braves – Ervin Santana’s “Black Magic” disappears
One of the keys to being a successful bettor over the long haul is that patience to not force a power rating when you are not comfortable with a team or performer. Hence, not feeling forced to rush something definitive on a guy like Arrieta above. And it can mean avoiding the kind of mistakes that easily could have been made, and indeed were made by many, with Santana a couple of weeks ago.
Atlanta went 5-1 in Santana’s first six starts after he came over to the NL, and his 1.99 allowance, with more K’s (43) than Hits + BB (41), was a hint of something special. There were headlines across the sports mediaverse, and many of the major Fantasy sites had writers going into minute detail to showcase where those improvements came from (run a search and you can enjoy the usual hindsight advantage reading through them). Santana did not make this page, however, because a guy that had never had a single-season ERA of lower than 3.38, and sported a career xFIP of 4.20, was not a prime candidate to “find it” in his 10th MLB season.
A degree of skepticism is a useful tool in this endeavor. This time it paid off. Over Santana’s last six starts the Braves have gone 1-5, getting out-scored by 14 runs, and he has been knocked around to a 6.44 ERA, with 56 Hits + BB vs. only 24 K’s. The irony? Look at how his overall tally through 12 starts appears - a guy that entered the season at 105-90/4.19 over his career, is now 5-3/4.09 for 2014. Or, right about where one would have projected him.
There were a couple of keys to that hot early start. Naturally changing leagues mattered, with hitters lacking both experience and quality scouting reports. But here is what is visible now that wasn’t then – of those first six games, five of the outings were against teams that currently rate #23 or lower in Runs and OPS. Some of that strong showing can be attributed to being in the right place, at the right time. That is why patience is such a bankroll virtue – had you jumped the gun on Santana’s supposed improvements, it would have been an expensive lesson learned (especially with those last six starts also playing Over at a 4-1-1 clip as well).
A’s – Josh Donaldson’s bad week
A slightly different take on the same general theme as the first two items this week – how one incorporates subsets into establishing good power ratings. It is also more emphasis about being patient, because sometimes Baseball is just Baseball. So time to talk about the week that Donaldson just went through.
Donaldson got a single in the fourth inning off of Jose Ramirez on Sunday, driving in a run. It was not a significant moment in the grand scheme of a 10-5 Oakland rout (10-0 into the 6th), but it at least closed one dark chapter of the book that is to be his career – it ended an 0-33 slide by someone that had been one of the best players in the sport since the 2012 All Star break. There were no BB in that span, with 10 K’s, and it was not just a tough week at the plate – he also committed three errors in one game, a loss to the Angels on Monday night.
This came from a player that was #3 in WAR in 2013, having a great year both offensively (.301/.384/.499) and in the field, as he blossomed at 3B after originally coming up as a catcher. He opened 2014 with a .271/.333/.534 April, then a .281/.417/.573 May, to move into the early discussion for MVP (in a league with Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, it will continue to be an uphill battle). Then starting last weekend in Baltimore, his arc changed course.
Note that the errors in the field were not the only link to possible frustrations driven by the batting slump - he was ejected from Saturday’s game by home-plate umpire Hal Gibson, for questioning the strike zone. That led Bob Melvin to try to take some pressure off by dropping him to 6th in Sunday’s lineup. And while a single off of an unsung middle reliever does not set off fireworks, it ended a run of 25 consecutive balls in play that were turned into outs, dating back to June 4th against the Yankees in the Bronx. That can wear on a player. Because of that there will be a prime focus in following Donaldson closely this week – as good as 2013 was, it was his first full-season in The Show for a late bloomer, and his history of rebounding from bad times is being written now in front of us, instead of being something on the reference shelves that we can review.
Marlins – Casey (McGehee) at the Bat
McGehee does not bring the career sample-size issues of Donaldson above – he has been around long enough to be recognized for what he is, a journeyman that is playing in his 5th different MLB uniform since coming up in 2008. He returned for an opportunity to resuscitate faded MLB dreams with the Marlins this season, after spending 2013 in Japan (he did help lead the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles to a championship). For Miami, McGehee was cheap veteran fodder to fill out a roster, in what was expected to be a transition year before the team was good enough to compete.
Then we all wake up to begin our processes on June 16th, and find the Marlins just a game out in the NL East, and McGehee #8 in the NL in batting average and #7 in rbi’s. Cue visions of a major movie concept and start lining up the actors to play the lead – a non-descript veteran finds his soul in Japan, and returns to become a star. But this may turn out to be a different Hollywood – not the one near Los Angeles that creates dreams for movie screens, but the one between Miami and Fort Lauderdale that has seen better days. This may only be the short-term magic of Baseball.
When you see a clean-up hitter playing 3B with a lot of rbi’s, there is the natural assumption of power. Except McGehee has hardly produced any – just one HR over 289 PA’s. That is not a misprint – a cleanup hitter has gone to the plate 289 times, and has managed one HR. There are 244 players that have at least 150 PA’s so far, and the only ones with a lower rate then McGehee’s 1.4 percent of HR/FB are J. J. Hardy, Erig Sogard, Conor Gillaspie, James Jones, Adeiny Hechavarria and Norichika Aoki. None of them will be batting clean-up any time soon.
So just what in the hell has happened? The sort of thing that Baseball allows, over a short cycle – McGehee has hit an astonishing .411 with runners in scoring position (RISP), going 30-73 to drive in 37 runs. That is an amazing efficiency. But here is the problem – only four of those hits were doubles, with no triples or HR’s. Batted balls have simply found more geometric room than is available over larger samples, and note the outlier that McGehee’s .362 BABIP is over his career norm of .294. Yes, there will be those that will attempt to call his performances “clutch”, but ignore them in setting your ratings - it has been well-established through the years that batting in high-leverage situations is not a separate skill. Over time, hitters produce in those settings in a manner that closely correlates to their overall skill level.
It has been a fabulous ride for McGehee to this point, but without any real pop coming from his bat, those numbers have only one way to go. As they decline so will the Miami production, given how little margin for error the Marlins bring to the diamond each day, with that team .321 BABIP continuing to flash at us as a warning sign.
Royals – Revisiting a coaching change
Time to shift from individual players to a team here, although it still means staying on the track of sorting through sample sizes to sharpen your ratings. A couple of weeks ago Kansas City became a prime topic here, as yet another change was made at hitting coach. That spot had been a revolving door in recent seasons for the Royals, and because the shuffle coincided at a time in which they brought up several promising young prospects, it may have directly impeded the growth of several of those players.
Fast forward and the story has been profound. Since Dale Sveum took over they have gone on a 12-4 surge, scoring 5.1 runs per game, and because of the Detroit vulnerabilities have climbed to within 1.5 games of first place in the AL Central, heading into this week’s key series. While there is once again the issue of a small sample size, when a handicapper can put some meat behind the performances it is something that can be taken to the betting windows.
One of the issues discussed with Sveum’s promotion was that as a former manager he had plenty of experience in dealing with the psyche of players. When you watch the Kansas City offense now it does not come across as a case of baseball correcting itself, after too many bad early bounces, but instead a looser and more confident lineup at the plate. Winning then reinforces that, and with nine of those 12 victories coming by multiple runs, six by four or more, it makes the momentum even more genuine.
The Royals have played solid defense. The starting rotation is sound, and gets deeper when Bruce Chen returns. Closer Greg Holland is sitting on back-to-back seasons of 1.21 and 1.35 in ERA and 1.68 and 1.75 in xFIP. With those factors added to the mix, you might want to designate everything from May 29 forward as a key subset when rating the Royals – that change at hitting coach may indeed have been a catalyst to turn an under-achieving team around.
Baseball Betting: Report
Sportspic
Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.
American League
The week did not go well for A.L. East leading Toronto as Blue Birds were 3-4 thanks in large part to a struggling offense plating just 2.8 runs/game. Jays open the week at 41-30 (+$935) right behind Oakland (42-27, +$767) as top team in the Junior Circuit. Kansas City was a good betting choice this past week as they were a perfect 5-0 stuffing +$519 into betting accounts behind a whopping 7.0 runs/game.
National League
Over in the Senior league the Colorado Rockies turned around their fortunes posting a 5-2 (+$474) week crossing 7.0 runs/game. The San Francisco Giants despite suffering through a 1-6 (-$720) home stand remain the best in the Majors at 43-27 (+$1417).
O/U
Orioles were an 'Under' bettors dream this past week posting a 0-7 O/U mark with Jays the next best 'Under' play at 1-6-1 O/U. Giants pitching staff getting crushed (5.43 RPG) were 6-1 to the 'Over'
Home Favorite
Players wagering on home favorites this past week did not fair well as home faves were 32-31 with betting accounts depleted to the tune of -$1181. Breaking numbers down by individual team, Giants (-$620), Marines (-$341), White Sox (-$241) were the worst of the lot dressed as faves.
Other noteworthy seasonal betting trends:
Best 'Over' Situation
Colorado 21-12-3 on the road
Milwaukee 21-12-2 away
Miami 20-12-4 at home
Best 'Under' Situation
Atlanta 6-0 home off 1 run loss
Dodgers 6-0 away off 1 run loss
Dodgers 22-13-1 away
San Diego 20-13-2 at home
Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 15-7 (9-2 at home)
Oakland 14-8 (8-4 away)
Arizona 3-9 home
Boston 2-9 away
Best after One Run Loss
Milwaukee (7-1)
Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-9), KC (2-5)
Best/Worst after being blanked
San Fran (4-0), Cinci (6-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Texas (0-3), Arizona (1-6), Mets (2-5)
Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
Miami (8-2) at home
Cleveland 2-12 on the road
Best/Worst Interleague
Miami (8-1), San Fran (6-0)
Philadelphia (1-8), Cinci (1-4)
Sportspic
Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.
American League
The week did not go well for A.L. East leading Toronto as Blue Birds were 3-4 thanks in large part to a struggling offense plating just 2.8 runs/game. Jays open the week at 41-30 (+$935) right behind Oakland (42-27, +$767) as top team in the Junior Circuit. Kansas City was a good betting choice this past week as they were a perfect 5-0 stuffing +$519 into betting accounts behind a whopping 7.0 runs/game.
National League
Over in the Senior league the Colorado Rockies turned around their fortunes posting a 5-2 (+$474) week crossing 7.0 runs/game. The San Francisco Giants despite suffering through a 1-6 (-$720) home stand remain the best in the Majors at 43-27 (+$1417).
O/U
Orioles were an 'Under' bettors dream this past week posting a 0-7 O/U mark with Jays the next best 'Under' play at 1-6-1 O/U. Giants pitching staff getting crushed (5.43 RPG) were 6-1 to the 'Over'
Home Favorite
Players wagering on home favorites this past week did not fair well as home faves were 32-31 with betting accounts depleted to the tune of -$1181. Breaking numbers down by individual team, Giants (-$620), Marines (-$341), White Sox (-$241) were the worst of the lot dressed as faves.
Other noteworthy seasonal betting trends:
Best 'Over' Situation
Colorado 21-12-3 on the road
Milwaukee 21-12-2 away
Miami 20-12-4 at home
Best 'Under' Situation
Atlanta 6-0 home off 1 run loss
Dodgers 6-0 away off 1 run loss
Dodgers 22-13-1 away
San Diego 20-13-2 at home
Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 15-7 (9-2 at home)
Oakland 14-8 (8-4 away)
Arizona 3-9 home
Boston 2-9 away
Best after One Run Loss
Milwaukee (7-1)
Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-9), KC (2-5)
Best/Worst after being blanked
San Fran (4-0), Cinci (6-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Texas (0-3), Arizona (1-6), Mets (2-5)
Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
Miami (8-2) at home
Cleveland 2-12 on the road
Best/Worst Interleague
Miami (8-1), San Fran (6-0)
Philadelphia (1-8), Cinci (1-4)
Tony The Sports Betting Champ
MLB System Bet for June 16:
Official system bets:MLB System Bet for June 16:
Cleveland Indians [A] bet (bet on +1.5 Run Line)
Kansas City Royals [A] bet (bet on +1.5 Run Line)
_________________________________________________________________
Unofficial system bets
(these do not pass the RPI filter)
Tampa Bay Rays [A] bet (bet on Money Line)
Texas Rangers [A] bet (bet on +1.5 Run Line)
Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS -1.5 (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
The Rangers and As will meet for their third series of the season starting on Monday evening. The Rangers enter 34-35 on the year and 18-16 on the road, while the Athletics are 42-27 overall (1st in the American League) and 19-13 at home. The Rangers will be sending Colby Lewis to the mound Monday night and Oakland is sending lefty Drew Pomeranz to the rubber. Lewis is 4-4 on the year with a high 5.74 ERA, .336 OBA and 1.81 WHIP. He struggled through 6 May starts with a 5.85 ERA, and so far over his 2 June starts he has posted a 7.20 ERA and .318 OBA. On the other hand, Drew Pomeranz has been stellar with a 5-3 record, 1.90 ERA, .204 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. As a starter he has a 1.88 ERA and opponents are hitting just .199 against him. Although his ERA is a bit higher at 2.33 at home, he is 4-0 with a 1.34 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. Take note that the Rangers are just 4-11 in their last 15 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite, and 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The A's have won 3 of their last 4 games entering tonight, and those wins were all were by 2+ runs. Tonight they've got Pomeranz on the mound who has been stellar, and they're facing a pitcher who batters are hitting over .300 against. I'm on the A's at home by 2+ runs at a nice plus money price.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners - UNDER 7 RUNS (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Ross vs. Young
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
The Red Sox had a solid opportunity in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to cash us in. First with 1 out and then 2. Unfortunately we came an inch too short as that chopper up the middle couldn't find a hole.
There was a point in time this season where the Padres' offense was actually doing some damage. I didn't think they were going to keep it up and they most certainly have not. They have fell on their faces in the month of June, averaging less than 2 runs per game. In their last ten games the most runs they scored was two games ago against the Mets, 5. In fact, the next best, 4 runs, only occurred on one occasion. The Padres have had three games during the ten where they didn't score a single run. 7 of those 10 went UNDER the total. San Diego has favored the UNDER in 2014 with a 43-26 edge. They'll face pitcher Chris Young who has been strong at home. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Padres also only hit .216 against right-handed pitching. The Mariners struggle badly against righties too at .231. Tyson Ross has had himself a pretty strong campaign thus far. When he is on rolling he is difficult to hit. For instance, eight out of fourteen starts for Ross has resulted in just a run or less than a run. He was great in his last start against the Phillies on the road, giving up no runs on only 4 hits. The Mariners have also been favoring the UNDER lately as well, 8-2 their last 10 games. This should be a typical classic low-scoring Padres/Mariners matchup. The UNDER 7 looks good here.
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS -1.5 (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
The Rangers and As will meet for their third series of the season starting on Monday evening. The Rangers enter 34-35 on the year and 18-16 on the road, while the Athletics are 42-27 overall (1st in the American League) and 19-13 at home. The Rangers will be sending Colby Lewis to the mound Monday night and Oakland is sending lefty Drew Pomeranz to the rubber. Lewis is 4-4 on the year with a high 5.74 ERA, .336 OBA and 1.81 WHIP. He struggled through 6 May starts with a 5.85 ERA, and so far over his 2 June starts he has posted a 7.20 ERA and .318 OBA. On the other hand, Drew Pomeranz has been stellar with a 5-3 record, 1.90 ERA, .204 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. As a starter he has a 1.88 ERA and opponents are hitting just .199 against him. Although his ERA is a bit higher at 2.33 at home, he is 4-0 with a 1.34 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. Take note that the Rangers are just 4-11 in their last 15 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite, and 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The A's have won 3 of their last 4 games entering tonight, and those wins were all were by 2+ runs. Tonight they've got Pomeranz on the mound who has been stellar, and they're facing a pitcher who batters are hitting over .300 against. I'm on the A's at home by 2+ runs at a nice plus money price.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners - UNDER 7 RUNS (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Ross vs. Young
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
The Red Sox had a solid opportunity in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to cash us in. First with 1 out and then 2. Unfortunately we came an inch too short as that chopper up the middle couldn't find a hole.
There was a point in time this season where the Padres' offense was actually doing some damage. I didn't think they were going to keep it up and they most certainly have not. They have fell on their faces in the month of June, averaging less than 2 runs per game. In their last ten games the most runs they scored was two games ago against the Mets, 5. In fact, the next best, 4 runs, only occurred on one occasion. The Padres have had three games during the ten where they didn't score a single run. 7 of those 10 went UNDER the total. San Diego has favored the UNDER in 2014 with a 43-26 edge. They'll face pitcher Chris Young who has been strong at home. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Padres also only hit .216 against right-handed pitching. The Mariners struggle badly against righties too at .231. Tyson Ross has had himself a pretty strong campaign thus far. When he is on rolling he is difficult to hit. For instance, eight out of fourteen starts for Ross has resulted in just a run or less than a run. He was great in his last start against the Phillies on the road, giving up no runs on only 4 hits. The Mariners have also been favoring the UNDER lately as well, 8-2 their last 10 games. This should be a typical classic low-scoring Padres/Mariners matchup. The UNDER 7 looks good here.
Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS -1.5 (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
The Rangers and As will meet for their third series of the season starting on Monday evening. The Rangers enter 34-35 on the year and 18-16 on the road, while the Athletics are 42-27 overall (1st in the American League) and 19-13 at home. The Rangers will be sending Colby Lewis to the mound Monday night and Oakland is sending lefty Drew Pomeranz to the rubber. Lewis is 4-4 on the year with a high 5.74 ERA, .336 OBA and 1.81 WHIP. He struggled through 6 May starts with a 5.85 ERA, and so far over his 2 June starts he has posted a 7.20 ERA and .318 OBA. On the other hand, Drew Pomeranz has been stellar with a 5-3 record, 1.90 ERA, .204 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. As a starter he has a 1.88 ERA and opponents are hitting just .199 against him. Although his ERA is a bit higher at 2.33 at home, he is 4-0 with a 1.34 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. Take note that the Rangers are just 4-11 in their last 15 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite, and 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The A's have won 3 of their last 4 games entering tonight, and those wins were all were by 2+ runs. Tonight they've got Pomeranz on the mound who has been stellar, and they're facing a pitcher who batters are hitting over .300 against. I'm on the A's at home by 2+ runs at a nice plus money price.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners - UNDER 7 RUNS (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Ross vs. Young
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
The Red Sox had a solid opportunity in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to cash us in. First with 1 out and then 2. Unfortunately we came an inch too short as that chopper up the middle couldn't find a hole.
There was a point in time this season where the Padres' offense was actually doing some damage. I didn't think they were going to keep it up and they most certainly have not. They have fell on their faces in the month of June, averaging less than 2 runs per game. In their last ten games the most runs they scored was two games ago against the Mets, 5. In fact, the next best, 4 runs, only occurred on one occasion. The Padres have had three games during the ten where they didn't score a single run. 7 of those 10 went UNDER the total. San Diego has favored the UNDER in 2014 with a 43-26 edge. They'll face pitcher Chris Young who has been strong at home. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Padres also only hit .216 against right-handed pitching. The Mariners struggle badly against righties too at .231. Tyson Ross has had himself a pretty strong campaign thus far. When he is on rolling he is difficult to hit. For instance, eight out of fourteen starts for Ross has resulted in just a run or less than a run. He was great in his last start against the Phillies on the road, giving up no runs on only 4 hits. The Mariners have also been favoring the UNDER lately as well, 8-2 their last 10 games. This should be a typical classic low-scoring Padres/Mariners matchup. The UNDER 7 looks good here.
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS -1.5 (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Lewis vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
The Rangers and As will meet for their third series of the season starting on Monday evening. The Rangers enter 34-35 on the year and 18-16 on the road, while the Athletics are 42-27 overall (1st in the American League) and 19-13 at home. The Rangers will be sending Colby Lewis to the mound Monday night and Oakland is sending lefty Drew Pomeranz to the rubber. Lewis is 4-4 on the year with a high 5.74 ERA, .336 OBA and 1.81 WHIP. He struggled through 6 May starts with a 5.85 ERA, and so far over his 2 June starts he has posted a 7.20 ERA and .318 OBA. On the other hand, Drew Pomeranz has been stellar with a 5-3 record, 1.90 ERA, .204 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. As a starter he has a 1.88 ERA and opponents are hitting just .199 against him. Although his ERA is a bit higher at 2.33 at home, he is 4-0 with a 1.34 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. Take note that the Rangers are just 4-11 in their last 15 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite, and 37-16 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The A's have won 3 of their last 4 games entering tonight, and those wins were all were by 2+ runs. Tonight they've got Pomeranz on the mound who has been stellar, and they're facing a pitcher who batters are hitting over .300 against. I'm on the A's at home by 2+ runs at a nice plus money price.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners - UNDER 7 RUNS (-107)
Listed Pitchers: Ross vs. Young
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.87 units)
The Red Sox had a solid opportunity in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to cash us in. First with 1 out and then 2. Unfortunately we came an inch too short as that chopper up the middle couldn't find a hole.
There was a point in time this season where the Padres' offense was actually doing some damage. I didn't think they were going to keep it up and they most certainly have not. They have fell on their faces in the month of June, averaging less than 2 runs per game. In their last ten games the most runs they scored was two games ago against the Mets, 5. In fact, the next best, 4 runs, only occurred on one occasion. The Padres have had three games during the ten where they didn't score a single run. 7 of those 10 went UNDER the total. San Diego has favored the UNDER in 2014 with a 43-26 edge. They'll face pitcher Chris Young who has been strong at home. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Padres also only hit .216 against right-handed pitching. The Mariners struggle badly against righties too at .231. Tyson Ross has had himself a pretty strong campaign thus far. When he is on rolling he is difficult to hit. For instance, eight out of fourteen starts for Ross has resulted in just a run or less than a run. He was great in his last start against the Phillies on the road, giving up no runs on only 4 hits. The Mariners have also been favoring the UNDER lately as well, 8-2 their last 10 games. This should be a typical classic low-scoring Padres/Mariners matchup. The UNDER 7 looks good here.
Chris Jordan [h=4]MLB winner...[/h]
My 800♦ Winner is on the UNDER in the National League clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. I want you to be sure the auto-listed pitchers in this one is Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. The line I see on this game is Under 6.5, +110, as of 8 a.m. pacific.
Sports Junkies
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