MLBPredictions / Kevin
2 UNIT = Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals – DODGERS TO WIN (-106)
Listed Pitchers: Grienke vs Zimmermann
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)
The Dodgers enter this game 18-14 on the season and 12-5 on the road. They lost 2 of 3 in Miami, but have won 4 of their last 6 during their current road trip. The Nationals are 17-14 and 9-8 at home and are coming off of a 5 game road trip where they went 3-2 but lost the final two in Philadelphia scoring just 2 runs. Zack Grienke will take the mound for Los Angeles and he is 5-0 on the season with a 2.04 ERA, .228 OBA and 1.05 WHIP. In his last start he pitched 6 shutout innings allowing 7 hits with 6 strikeouts and one walk. He has struckout 46 this year and walked just 6. The Dodgers are 5-1 in his 6 starts this season. Jordan Zimmermann will pitch for Washington and he is 2-1 on the year with a 3.27 ERA, .277 OBA and 1.33 WHIP. He too is coming off a scorless outing as he pitched 6.1 innings allowing 7 hits, no earned runs with 7 strikeouts and a walk vs the Astros. Although he’s had a pretty solid start to the season, the Nats are just 3-3 when he takes the mound. He has also really struggled vs the Dodgers over 4 career starts going 2-1 but with a 6.65 ERA, .322 OBA and 1.66 WHIP. 5 of the Dodgers top hitters (Kemp, Ramirez, Gonzalez, Ethier, Crawford) are all hitting at least .300 against Zimmermann with a minimum of 8 at-bats against him. Take note that the Dodgers are 3rd in the MLB with a .775 OPS vs righties, while the Nationals are just 21st at .676. Los Angeles is 22-6 in Grienke’s last 28 starts and 12-3 in his last 15 road starts. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record, and 17-4 in his last 21 starts following a quality start in his previous appearance. The Nationals are just 2-5 in Zimmermann’s last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record, and 2-5 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. The Dodgers have won 5 straight vs Washington and 4 of their last 5 in Washington. I’ll back Grienke and the Dodgers vs a good pitcher that they’ve had a lot of success against.
Kyle’s Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ San Diego Padres – UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Ventura vs. Stults
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
Bumgarner and Wood held down the bats yesterday, as we hit a relatively easy winner on the UNDER 7. Another UNDER bet looks enticing to me for Monday night.
I was hoping to get a 7 here, but I still like it at 6.5. Yordana Ventura has been everything that was advertised in the preseason. There wasn’t much talk of him in the media simply because he plays for the Royals. If Ventura was playing for the Yankees or another high profile team you would have heard his name mentioned plenty by now. Regardless of where he plays, people should start to take note. In five starts this season he has already put forth three starts in which he didn’t allow a run. There was one start against the Twins where he got hit for 4 runs but that is about it. He also had 1 run charged to him against the Houston Astros. His last two starts yielded no runs against. The most impressive notion is the fact that he shut the Blue Jays and Orioles down. The Padres should pose no real threat to Ventura in this friendly ballpark. His season ERA stands at 1.50 with a 1.07 WHIP. The ERA goes all the way down to 0.60 on the road. In addition, Ventura has given up only 1 home run throughout the year. Note that the Padres hit just .207 against right-handed pitchers. He’ll be matched against a lefty on the other side, Eric Stults. I have been expecting more out of Stults this season, but there is still plenty of time to turn it around. His ERA of 5.34 should go down and more so reflect 3.93 from last season. In his last start at home he gave up only a run to the San Francisco Giants. I look for more of that tonight against an abysmal Royals’ offense. The Royals have produced just 3, 2, 2, and 4 in their last four games. Justin Verlander had a no-hitter going against them yesterday before that was broken up in the 6th. Stults’ WHIP falls down to 1.27 at home as well, he should be able to look good in this matchup. Lastly, the Royals prefer right-handed pitching, where they are hitting .256 compared to .222 against lefties. Therefore, the average batting average of both teams is .214 heading into Monday night. Look for a pitching duel at a ballpark that produces a ton of them.
