Joe Gavazzi MLB
Monday, May 5, 2014
After a dismal weekend of MLB results, we will turn things around with 6 Monday night winners, now that teams have changed opponents. It’s a new set of opponents for the NBA as well, with the opening of Round 2 set for Monday night. Game 1 of a new series offers some of the best possibilities in the NBA Playoffs. Be there for the winners!
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers (Greinke) (-105) at Washington Nationals (Zimmerman) 7:05 ET
4% LA Dodgers (-105)
The Nats went scoreless for us yesterday, in a tough 1-0 loss. Well aware that they are still on a current run of 7-2/L and that Zimmerman was one of the best home pitchers in MLB last season. Such has not been the case this year. In 4 appearances, Zimmerman has posted a 4.58 ERA from this mound. Zimmerman has also had little success in his appearances vs. the Dodgers. In 4 outings, he has worked 21 2/3 IP, allowing 16 runs for a 6.65 ERA and .327 BAA. The Dodgers have won 5 straight from Washington, holding them to a total of 6 runs with a .219 BA. Expect a continuation tonight, as Greinke takes the mound. Greinke has become the most consistent pitcher in MLB. He has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 21 consecutive starts. For the season, Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 46/6 KBB. In 3 starts vs. Washington, Greinke is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. We won’t get off Greinke until he loses! It is worthwhile to note that after their 5-4 loss at Miami, LAD remains 12-5 on the road. All greater than .500 YTD MLB teams, playing on the road following a defeat, are 57-31 (though just 6-8 in May).
San Francisco Giants (Petit) (-105) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) 7:05 ET
4% San Francisco (-105)
The Giants come in hot (at 9-1 and 5-0). The Pirates are clearly not! After winning two against the lifeless pitching staff of the Jays, the Bucs reverted to form in a 7-2 Sunday loss. The current streak is now 4-11. They have scored 2 or less runs in 16 of their 31 games. Locke will not be the answer. After being selected to the All Star Game last season, Locke finished the year on a down turn. In his last 11 starts, he was 1-5 with a 6.66 ERA. His time at triple A Indianapolis this season has not been much better. In 4 starts, Locke has worked 19 IP. Although his control has improved with a 17/5 KBB, he is getting battered about by triple A hitters. The result is a 5.68 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Far prefer Petit, who is 2-1 for the season with a 2.61 ERA. In his lone start of the year, Petit worked 6 innings, allowing 3 hits with a 4/0 KBB in a 6-0 shutout of San Diego.
NY Mets (Niese) at Miami Marlins (Eovaldi) (-130) 7:10 ET
3% ACTION Miami (-130)
Each of these starters has done well for the season and is in great current form. Niese has a 2.20 ERA for the year. In 3 recent starts, he has worked 6+ innings, allowing one run in each. In a similar way, Eovaldi has a 2.58 ERA with a strong 35/5 KBB. His most recent 3 starts have resulted in a 0.95 ERA. In a trio of starts against the Mets, Eovaldi has a 2.50 ERA. The meaningful difference is the strong home field of the Marlins. The Mets must travel east, a pair of time zones from Colorado. Here, they will face a Miami team, who is 8-1 at home of late, scoring 59 runs. At the beginning of the season, I wrote that I expected huge improvement from Miami, and that young teams often emerge at home. Just such has been the case. We continue with that philosophy.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Bolsinger) at Milwaukee Brewers (Garza) (-145) 8:10 ET
3% ACTION Arizona (+135)
Neither of these pitchers is performing to potential. Though Bolsinger has a sharp 19/5 KBB, he has a bloated 5.79 ERA. Garza has been the weak link of the Brewer rotation with a record of 1-3 and 5.00 ERA. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 4 out of 6 recent starts. In his most recent outing, he lasted just 3+ IP, allowing 5 runs in a 9-3 loss to St. Louis. But, the real reason for this play is the correction these teams are undergoing. The D’Backs’ horrific start has been characterized by their 3-15 home record. On the road, they are actually 8-8. Only 4 teams are playing sub .400 ball. Arizona soon will not be one of them. They are a solid 8-8 on the road. Milwaukee has returned to earth since Braun has gone on the DL. Last week, the Brewers went 3-4 with a .204 BA. Though 11 games separates these teams in the standings at this point, their records could be very comparable by the end of the season.
NY Yankees (Phelps) at LA Angels (Weaver) (-150) 10:00 ET
3% NYY (+140)
Each of these teams has some current negative form. The Yankees were a Top Play loser for us yesterday, when they had trouble with the slants of Bedard (of all people) and the pitching staff has been the major reason for their recent 1-4 slide. The staff has recorded a 6.49 ERA, with a .342 BAA. Those are the same problems that the Angels are having. In their 1-2 weekend vs. Texas on this field, Angels’ starters allowed 14 earned runs in 14 2/3 IP. Though Weaver has improved since his shaky start, the sight of Pinstripes may make him shutter. In 13 starts against NYY, he has worked 74 1/3 IP for a 5.93 ERA. The Yankees remain a winning team, despite their recent down slide. All greater than .500 YTD MLB teams, who are playing on the road following a loss, are 57-31 this year (though just 6-8 in May).
Kansas City Royals (Ventura) (-115) at San Diego Padres (Stults) 10:10 ET
3% Kansas City (-115)
Each of these teams enters in a funk. The Royals have lost 4 straight. The Padres are 1-4 of late scoring a total of just 9 runs, with a .178 BA. That is a continuation of their scoring problems which has seen the Padres plate 3 or less runs in 13/17 recent games. As a result, we’ll take the hotter arm at this competitive price. Know that this year in MLB, home teams are just 235-225 (51%) with road favorites being 80-58 (58%). For the season, Stults is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA. He lasted just 2 2/3 IP of his previous start, allowing 5 runs in a 6-0 loss to San Fran. Ventura enters with a string of 13 scoreless innings, a YTD 1.50 ERA, with a 31/11 KBB. In a pair of starts on the road this year, Ventura has worked 15 IP with a 0.60 ERA.
Monday, May 5, 2014
After a dismal weekend of MLB results, we will turn things around with 6 Monday night winners, now that teams have changed opponents. It’s a new set of opponents for the NBA as well, with the opening of Round 2 set for Monday night. Game 1 of a new series offers some of the best possibilities in the NBA Playoffs. Be there for the winners!
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers (Greinke) (-105) at Washington Nationals (Zimmerman) 7:05 ET
4% LA Dodgers (-105)
The Nats went scoreless for us yesterday, in a tough 1-0 loss. Well aware that they are still on a current run of 7-2/L and that Zimmerman was one of the best home pitchers in MLB last season. Such has not been the case this year. In 4 appearances, Zimmerman has posted a 4.58 ERA from this mound. Zimmerman has also had little success in his appearances vs. the Dodgers. In 4 outings, he has worked 21 2/3 IP, allowing 16 runs for a 6.65 ERA and .327 BAA. The Dodgers have won 5 straight from Washington, holding them to a total of 6 runs with a .219 BA. Expect a continuation tonight, as Greinke takes the mound. Greinke has become the most consistent pitcher in MLB. He has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 21 consecutive starts. For the season, Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 46/6 KBB. In 3 starts vs. Washington, Greinke is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. We won’t get off Greinke until he loses! It is worthwhile to note that after their 5-4 loss at Miami, LAD remains 12-5 on the road. All greater than .500 YTD MLB teams, playing on the road following a defeat, are 57-31 (though just 6-8 in May).
San Francisco Giants (Petit) (-105) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) 7:05 ET
4% San Francisco (-105)
The Giants come in hot (at 9-1 and 5-0). The Pirates are clearly not! After winning two against the lifeless pitching staff of the Jays, the Bucs reverted to form in a 7-2 Sunday loss. The current streak is now 4-11. They have scored 2 or less runs in 16 of their 31 games. Locke will not be the answer. After being selected to the All Star Game last season, Locke finished the year on a down turn. In his last 11 starts, he was 1-5 with a 6.66 ERA. His time at triple A Indianapolis this season has not been much better. In 4 starts, Locke has worked 19 IP. Although his control has improved with a 17/5 KBB, he is getting battered about by triple A hitters. The result is a 5.68 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Far prefer Petit, who is 2-1 for the season with a 2.61 ERA. In his lone start of the year, Petit worked 6 innings, allowing 3 hits with a 4/0 KBB in a 6-0 shutout of San Diego.
NY Mets (Niese) at Miami Marlins (Eovaldi) (-130) 7:10 ET
3% ACTION Miami (-130)
Each of these starters has done well for the season and is in great current form. Niese has a 2.20 ERA for the year. In 3 recent starts, he has worked 6+ innings, allowing one run in each. In a similar way, Eovaldi has a 2.58 ERA with a strong 35/5 KBB. His most recent 3 starts have resulted in a 0.95 ERA. In a trio of starts against the Mets, Eovaldi has a 2.50 ERA. The meaningful difference is the strong home field of the Marlins. The Mets must travel east, a pair of time zones from Colorado. Here, they will face a Miami team, who is 8-1 at home of late, scoring 59 runs. At the beginning of the season, I wrote that I expected huge improvement from Miami, and that young teams often emerge at home. Just such has been the case. We continue with that philosophy.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Bolsinger) at Milwaukee Brewers (Garza) (-145) 8:10 ET
3% ACTION Arizona (+135)
Neither of these pitchers is performing to potential. Though Bolsinger has a sharp 19/5 KBB, he has a bloated 5.79 ERA. Garza has been the weak link of the Brewer rotation with a record of 1-3 and 5.00 ERA. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 4 out of 6 recent starts. In his most recent outing, he lasted just 3+ IP, allowing 5 runs in a 9-3 loss to St. Louis. But, the real reason for this play is the correction these teams are undergoing. The D’Backs’ horrific start has been characterized by their 3-15 home record. On the road, they are actually 8-8. Only 4 teams are playing sub .400 ball. Arizona soon will not be one of them. They are a solid 8-8 on the road. Milwaukee has returned to earth since Braun has gone on the DL. Last week, the Brewers went 3-4 with a .204 BA. Though 11 games separates these teams in the standings at this point, their records could be very comparable by the end of the season.
NY Yankees (Phelps) at LA Angels (Weaver) (-150) 10:00 ET
3% NYY (+140)
Each of these teams has some current negative form. The Yankees were a Top Play loser for us yesterday, when they had trouble with the slants of Bedard (of all people) and the pitching staff has been the major reason for their recent 1-4 slide. The staff has recorded a 6.49 ERA, with a .342 BAA. Those are the same problems that the Angels are having. In their 1-2 weekend vs. Texas on this field, Angels’ starters allowed 14 earned runs in 14 2/3 IP. Though Weaver has improved since his shaky start, the sight of Pinstripes may make him shutter. In 13 starts against NYY, he has worked 74 1/3 IP for a 5.93 ERA. The Yankees remain a winning team, despite their recent down slide. All greater than .500 YTD MLB teams, who are playing on the road following a loss, are 57-31 this year (though just 6-8 in May).
Kansas City Royals (Ventura) (-115) at San Diego Padres (Stults) 10:10 ET
3% Kansas City (-115)
Each of these teams enters in a funk. The Royals have lost 4 straight. The Padres are 1-4 of late scoring a total of just 9 runs, with a .178 BA. That is a continuation of their scoring problems which has seen the Padres plate 3 or less runs in 13/17 recent games. As a result, we’ll take the hotter arm at this competitive price. Know that this year in MLB, home teams are just 235-225 (51%) with road favorites being 80-58 (58%). For the season, Stults is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA. He lasted just 2 2/3 IP of his previous start, allowing 5 runs in a 6-0 loss to San Fran. Ventura enters with a string of 13 scoreless innings, a YTD 1.50 ERA, with a 31/11 KBB. In a pair of starts on the road this year, Ventura has worked 15 IP with a 0.60 ERA.
Joe Gavazzi Monday NBA
NBA PLAYOFFS
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers (-4) 7:00 ET TNT
3% Indiana Pacers (-4)
It took the top seeded Pacers 7 games to dispose of No. 8 seed Atlanta. As a result, they have just 2 days rest as they enter 2nd Round play. The surprising Wizards dumped the experienced Bulls in 5 games, going 4-1 ATS, covering by 34 points. Washington was able to use their greater athleticism to great success against the plodding Bulls, who never found an offensive rhythm in the series. The Wiz are not unlike the Pacers’ 1st Round opponent, Atlanta. The Saturday game was the epitome of that series, when Atlanta launched 44 triples in an effort to stay competitive against the bigger, stronger Pacers. It was not until the last 2 games (wins of 92-80 and 95-88 by Indiana) that they figured out how to close the gaps of the driving lanes that were being exploited by PG Teague. In those last two wins, the Indiana defense held Atlanta to just 33% shooting and 84 PPG. If they can use that same philosophy of success against the upstart Wizards, their Round 2 series will be far shorter than Round 1. But, the bigger picture creates enough doubt to prevent a Top Rating. Indiana is still just 16-15 SU and on a 9-28 ATS slide. Washington played their best on the road this year, with a record of 28-12 ATS when not taking more than 9 points. Yet, in a pair of visits to Bankers Life, Washington was crushed 93-66 and 93-77. That means Indiana has now won 12 straight on this court vs. Washington. Combined with what they learned in their Series with the Hawks, it could spell early demise for the young, emerging Wizards.
LA Clippers at OKC Thunder (-5) 9:35 ET TNT
3% OKC (-5)
These two split the season series with each winning on the home court of the other. That was not really a surprise, as they are both winning road teams. In fact, the Clippers are 22-12 ATS on the road, +6 to -6. They share other similarities in that each loves to go up-tempo, the reason for this bloated total, and that each was forced to 7 games by quality foes. When each won Game 7 of their series on Saturday, it pushed the record for NBA Game 7 home teams to 119-24 SU (83%). Only Toronto failed in Game 7 this year, making the 1st Round mark jive with the lifetime average. Now, they each begin Round 2 with short rest. In the 126-121 Clipper closeout on Saturday, they shot 55% from the field with 6 players knocking in 15 or more points. Paul had 22 points and an amazing 14 assists. Jordan continued his interior dominance of the under-manned front court of Golden with another big night of 15/18. Do not expect such numbers against OKC big man, Perkins. Earlier in the evening, Durant and Westbrook combined for 60 points. Westbrook added 10 boards and 16 dimes as the Thunder shot 61% in their 2nd half domination of a Memphis team playing without a suspended, Zack Randolph. In the fastest pace matchup of the Round 2 series, I look for the Thunder to defend home court and take the early series lead.
NBA PLAYOFFS
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers (-4) 7:00 ET TNT
3% Indiana Pacers (-4)
It took the top seeded Pacers 7 games to dispose of No. 8 seed Atlanta. As a result, they have just 2 days rest as they enter 2nd Round play. The surprising Wizards dumped the experienced Bulls in 5 games, going 4-1 ATS, covering by 34 points. Washington was able to use their greater athleticism to great success against the plodding Bulls, who never found an offensive rhythm in the series. The Wiz are not unlike the Pacers’ 1st Round opponent, Atlanta. The Saturday game was the epitome of that series, when Atlanta launched 44 triples in an effort to stay competitive against the bigger, stronger Pacers. It was not until the last 2 games (wins of 92-80 and 95-88 by Indiana) that they figured out how to close the gaps of the driving lanes that were being exploited by PG Teague. In those last two wins, the Indiana defense held Atlanta to just 33% shooting and 84 PPG. If they can use that same philosophy of success against the upstart Wizards, their Round 2 series will be far shorter than Round 1. But, the bigger picture creates enough doubt to prevent a Top Rating. Indiana is still just 16-15 SU and on a 9-28 ATS slide. Washington played their best on the road this year, with a record of 28-12 ATS when not taking more than 9 points. Yet, in a pair of visits to Bankers Life, Washington was crushed 93-66 and 93-77. That means Indiana has now won 12 straight on this court vs. Washington. Combined with what they learned in their Series with the Hawks, it could spell early demise for the young, emerging Wizards.
LA Clippers at OKC Thunder (-5) 9:35 ET TNT
3% OKC (-5)
These two split the season series with each winning on the home court of the other. That was not really a surprise, as they are both winning road teams. In fact, the Clippers are 22-12 ATS on the road, +6 to -6. They share other similarities in that each loves to go up-tempo, the reason for this bloated total, and that each was forced to 7 games by quality foes. When each won Game 7 of their series on Saturday, it pushed the record for NBA Game 7 home teams to 119-24 SU (83%). Only Toronto failed in Game 7 this year, making the 1st Round mark jive with the lifetime average. Now, they each begin Round 2 with short rest. In the 126-121 Clipper closeout on Saturday, they shot 55% from the field with 6 players knocking in 15 or more points. Paul had 22 points and an amazing 14 assists. Jordan continued his interior dominance of the under-manned front court of Golden with another big night of 15/18. Do not expect such numbers against OKC big man, Perkins. Earlier in the evening, Durant and Westbrook combined for 60 points. Westbrook added 10 boards and 16 dimes as the Thunder shot 61% in their 2nd half domination of a Memphis team playing without a suspended, Zack Randolph. In the fastest pace matchup of the Round 2 series, I look for the Thunder to defend home court and take the early series lead.
River City Sharps
The Marlins have absolutely been money at home this season, going 14-5 so far this season. The Mets are going to try and slow the Fish down at home now tonight as they send Jonathon Niese to the hill, who is sporting a 2-2 record with a 2.20 ERA. The Marlins are going to send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, who has also been great this year with a 2-1 record and a 2.58 ERA. He has been really good over his past three outings, giving up just 2 ER over the last 19 innings, and Niese has struggled over his career against the Mets, sporting a 3-5 record with a 4.17 ERA against the Marlins. We like the home team here tonight. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MIAMI MARLINS (-129)
The Marlins have absolutely been money at home this season, going 14-5 so far this season. The Mets are going to try and slow the Fish down at home now tonight as they send Jonathon Niese to the hill, who is sporting a 2-2 record with a 2.20 ERA. The Marlins are going to send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound, who has also been great this year with a 2-1 record and a 2.58 ERA. He has been really good over his past three outings, giving up just 2 ER over the last 19 innings, and Niese has struggled over his career against the Mets, sporting a 3-5 record with a 4.17 ERA against the Marlins. We like the home team here tonight. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MIAMI MARLINS (-129)
