What to take and leave from the first month of MLB betting
The first month – often the most challenging month for betting - of the MLB season is in the books. But what happened in April doesn’t necessarily carry over to May or to the rest of the baseball schedule.
We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to play a game of “Take It or Leave It”, telling you which early-season trends and outcomes you should take into May and which ones you should leave behind.
Steve Merril
Take it: “Pitchers will continue to dominate the hitters. Scoring has decreased significantly the past few seasons, especially since managers are quick to pull starting pitchers early and use spot middle relievers.”
Leave it: “Yankees' C.C. Sabathia has a history of starting slowly and did so this year, allowing six runs in his debut on April. He has settled down since and should pitch better in May than his overall 5.11 ERA would seem to indicate.”
Will Rogers
Take it: “Chicago White Sox 27-year-old rookie Jose Abreu leads the majors in home runs and RBIs, and watching him play I see no reason why he won't continue to be successful this season.”
Leave it: “The Brewers have the best record in baseball so far, and this is a trend I don't see continuing. They have been getting great pitching from their starters, but Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada are overachieving.”
Bryan Power
Take it: “Billy Beane continues to be smarter than the rest of his contemporaries and the Oakland GM has put together a team capable of continuing to stay atop the American League all season. Their run differential is the best in baseball, their starting rotation is good and their patience at the plate has once again led to them drawing more walks than any other team.”
Leave it: “The Atlanta Braves starting rotation was close to posting a sub 2.00 ERA in April. The list of teams in MLB history that have posted a sub 2.00 ERA in a calendar month is very small. While Atlanta's rotation is going to get healthier, the likelihood that they continue to post these kinds of incredible numbers is small.”
Sean Murphy
Take it: “I expect the Milwaukee Brewers to remain a profitable bet moving forward. We've seen it time and time again in the NL Central, with teams like the Reds and Pirates stepping to the forefront in recent years. And now it looks like it's the Brewers turn. With the Cardinals proving inconsistent and the Reds and Pirates struggling, Milwaukee should continue to thrive.”
Leave it: “I don't see the AL East staying down for long. The Yankees are currently the front runners but let's face it, all five teams have had their issues in the early going. I do expect one or two teams to separate themselves from the pack moving forward, and I think we can count on the defending world champion Red Sox to pick up their game as the season progresses.”
The first month – often the most challenging month for betting - of the MLB season is in the books. But what happened in April doesn’t necessarily carry over to May or to the rest of the baseball schedule.
We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to play a game of “Take It or Leave It”, telling you which early-season trends and outcomes you should take into May and which ones you should leave behind.
Steve Merril
Take it: “Pitchers will continue to dominate the hitters. Scoring has decreased significantly the past few seasons, especially since managers are quick to pull starting pitchers early and use spot middle relievers.”
Leave it: “Yankees' C.C. Sabathia has a history of starting slowly and did so this year, allowing six runs in his debut on April. He has settled down since and should pitch better in May than his overall 5.11 ERA would seem to indicate.”
Will Rogers
Take it: “Chicago White Sox 27-year-old rookie Jose Abreu leads the majors in home runs and RBIs, and watching him play I see no reason why he won't continue to be successful this season.”
Leave it: “The Brewers have the best record in baseball so far, and this is a trend I don't see continuing. They have been getting great pitching from their starters, but Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada are overachieving.”
Bryan Power
Take it: “Billy Beane continues to be smarter than the rest of his contemporaries and the Oakland GM has put together a team capable of continuing to stay atop the American League all season. Their run differential is the best in baseball, their starting rotation is good and their patience at the plate has once again led to them drawing more walks than any other team.”
Leave it: “The Atlanta Braves starting rotation was close to posting a sub 2.00 ERA in April. The list of teams in MLB history that have posted a sub 2.00 ERA in a calendar month is very small. While Atlanta's rotation is going to get healthier, the likelihood that they continue to post these kinds of incredible numbers is small.”
Sean Murphy
Take it: “I expect the Milwaukee Brewers to remain a profitable bet moving forward. We've seen it time and time again in the NL Central, with teams like the Reds and Pirates stepping to the forefront in recent years. And now it looks like it's the Brewers turn. With the Cardinals proving inconsistent and the Reds and Pirates struggling, Milwaukee should continue to thrive.”
Leave it: “I don't see the AL East staying down for long. The Yankees are currently the front runners but let's face it, all five teams have had their issues in the early going. I do expect one or two teams to separate themselves from the pack moving forward, and I think we can count on the defending world champion Red Sox to pick up their game as the season progresses.”
