Sac Lawson - Bonus Plays
Free pick 957 ATL (-115) Bodog vs 958 SDP
Analysis: This is all about value guys.. At the opening line there was very little value in taking Atlanta at -150. What we've seen here is a huge move by sharp money on the Padres in their home opener, likely to try and buy back in an arbitrage later on.
At this low number, it's just too good to pass up. Jurrjens has an ERA in the low 1's in two career starts against the Padres, and playing in this massive pitchers park, off a first start of the year where he gave up zero earned runs, i look for a huge performance.
Don't get me wrong, I respect Correia, hell anytime you win 12 games in a Padres uniform you are doing something right. And tonight he has the luxury of NOT having to face Chipper Jones.
Fact is, my thoughts are simplistic here, anytime we get 40 bucks off the opening line, and anytime we get Jair facing a Padres team in a pitchers ball park, there is absolutely no way we can pass it up. I know many people will scream trap, but i truly believe it's nothing more than an arbitrage move by some sharp money. Let's cash in on the Braves for a unit!
966 CLE / 965 TEX Over 8 Bodog
Analysis: I realize that Cleveland is somewhat of a pitchers park, I also realize that Fausto has been somewhat money in day games. No doubting the fact that his sinker is harder to track in the glare of a day game sunlight. That being said, his worst enemy over the last couple years has been the Rangers. Fausto is a guy that walks a lot of batters, so you've got to simply depend on him to not allow hits to counter that. Issue is, he's giving up an opponents BA of over 0.400 to this Texas squad. If Fausto isn't forcing groundball outs, his pitch count will sky rocket and we'll see him out of there by the middle of the 5th inning. At that point, you've just gotta question whether that Cleveland pen has anything left after the nonsense they went through last night. The Indians used 5 relievers last night and three of them threw over 25 pitches, meaning that at least three of them aren't available tonight (including their closer). On that Cleveland side, we've got Fausto who hasn't had much success against Texas at all, and we've got a tired/used up bullpen.
On the Texas side, we've got a guy in Harden who has only faced Cleveland once in his career (i believe), but he gave up 4 home runs that day. You'll get two things from Harden every year... Well make that three... Strikeouts, Home Runs, and an Injury. Like I mentioned.. Cleveland is definitely a pitchers park, but Harden can definitely walk some folks, and usually doesn't have a hard time giving up homers to lefties (Hafner and Choo, I'm calling on you!) Expect both these starters to give up 2-4 runs, and expect the bullpens to struggle as well. This could easily be an 8-5 ball game guys.
