jeff benton monday
2-0 yesterday. 17-18-1 MINUS 80 dimes since i started posting.
Monday's Action 20 Dime: PACERS (plus the points)
10 Dime: MARINERS ... NOTE: List Ryan Rowland-Smith (Seattle) and Justin Duchscherer as the starting pitchers. If either does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Pacers
What an absolutely PERFECT spot to back Indiana. Check this out:
While the Pacers enjoyed a day off Sunday, the Magic were going all-out in Cleveland, with all five starters playing at least 24 minutes in a come-from-behind 98-92 win over the LeBron-less Cavaliers. That victory (coupled with the Lakers’ home loss to Portland on Sunday) essentially means Orlando will finish with the second-best record in the NBA – thus if the Magic make it back to the NBA Finals, they’ll have the home-court advantage no matter who comes out of the Western Conference (even the Lakers).
All Orlando needs to do to secure that second-best record is get one more victory or one more Lakers loss, and seeing that the Magic close the regular season at home Wednesday against the crappy 76ers, it’s a lock they’re going to accomplish that goal. So this game against the resurgent Pacers is basically meaningless. And since they’re playing in a tough back-to-back situation so late in the season, I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see the Magic come out very flat tonight.
Now look at the Pacers. Although it’s a case of too little, too late, they’re playing their best basketball of the season, having won four in a row (averaging 119.3 ppg) and 10 of their last 12 (averaging 108.8 ppg). Also, Indiana is on an 11-1 SU roll at Conseco Fieldhouse (the lone setback came in overtime), and in their last 14 home contests, the Pacers have averaged 109.5 ppg.
When it comes covering pointspreads, Indiana has literally been money in the bank recently, going 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall and 9-2-1 ATS during its 11-1 SU run at home. The Pacers have also cashed in four straight matchups against Orlando, all as an underdog, and that includes a 97-90 home victory (as an 11-point ‘dog) in the only previous meeting in Indiana this season. And if you go back to the 2007-08 season, the home team has won six straight in this rivalry, and Orlando has dropped six of its last eight outright at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Bottom line: I detailed above that I don’t expect much of an effort from the Magic tonight. At the same time, I’d be shocked if the Pacers don’t come out with a lot of energy, passion and desire, as this is their home finale and they’re playing with a ton of confidence. In the end, we’ll grab the points the oddsmakers are generously giving us, but I absolutely believe we’re looking at an outright upset victory here with the Pacers, who have cashed in seven of eight as an underdog, seven of nine when catching less than five points and five of six as a home ‘dog.
Mariners
The A’s and Mariners have been playing a little role reversal early on in the season, as many pegged Seattle as an A.L. West contender and had Oakland destined for last place. However, seven games into the season, the A’s sit atop the division at 5-2, while the Mariners are 2-5 and tied with the Angels for last. And the reason is Oakland swept a three-game series from the M’s to start the season.
However, this is nothing more than an early-season aberration. Seattle is still the superior team and that will be emphatically proven over the course of a 162-game season. And now that the Mariners are back home after starting off 2010 with a seven-game road trip, I obviously expect things to start turning around for both teams. And the main reason is this pitching matchup.
Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer squares off against Ryan Rowland-Smith for the second time in five days, and even though the A’s pulled out a 6-5 home victory Wednesday, Rowland-Smith had the better outing. The Seattle lefty gave up three earned runs in five innings, while Duchscherer surrendered five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Duchscherer failed to get a decision in that game and he’s now 1-5 with a 3.90 ERA in 32 career appearances against the Mariners. That includes five starts, and in those starts, the right-hander has surrendered 16 runs (all earned) in 27 1/3 innings (5.29 ERA). He’s also 0-3 with a 4.21 ERA in his career at Safeco Field.
Meanwhile, Rowland-Smith has now made six starts against Oakland, giving up three earned runs or fewer in all six and a total of 12 earned runs in 36 1/3 innings (2.97 ERA). Also, Rowland-Smith has been solid in both a relief and starting role at home in his brief career, going 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA in 143 1/3 innings. (His road ERA is more than a full run higher at 4.30.)
Two additional reasons to love Seattle today: Despite getting swept in Oakland last week, the Mariners are 18-8 in the last 26 meetings with the A’s, and they’ve won 13 of the last 16 clashes at Safeco Field. And while Oakland has lost five of its last six road games against left-handed starters, the Mariners have won 26 of 36 at home against right-handed starters – and that was with an inferior team that what Seattle is fielding this year.
