AccuScore
The Detroit Tigers are solid favorites to beat the Kansas City Royals. The Tigers have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer.
Tigers' starter Max Scherzer is forecasted to have a better game than Royals' starter Luke Hochevar. Max Scherzer has a 64% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Luke Hochevar has a 49% chance of a QS. If Max Scherzer has a quality start the Tigers has a 78% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.3 and he has a 19% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Tigers win 70%. In Luke Hochevar quality starts the Royals win 58%. He has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 58% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Detroit Tigers is Miguel Cabrera who averaged 2.38 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 41% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Tigers have a 74% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Kansas City Royals is Billy Butler who averaged 1.92 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 29% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Royals have a 54% chance of winning.