Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup
30 Dime – TEXAS
10 Dime – OKLAHOMA - FIRST HALF
TEXAS LONGHORNS --- Don't let this big number scare you away... this game is going to get ugly, especially in the second half. Remember what happened to the Longhorns when they traveled to Norman, Oklahoma a few weeks ago... trust me, they haven't forgotten. Although this rivalry might not get as much notoriety as the "big ones", it's still two schools that absolutely hate each other and it stems from football. Does the basketball rivalry carry as much weight as football? Probably not... but it's still OU/Texas and it's still called the Red River Rivalry for a reason. Unlike when Kansas got up by 25 on Oklahoma and let them back in the game, Texas won't allow that to happen. When they get a double digit lead they are going to keep their foot on the gas and drive the Sooners right out of the gym.
Back in February on a cold Saturday afternoon, the Sooners frustrated the Longhorns with a barrage of three-pointers (10 of 24) and watched Texas struggle at the free throw line (10 of 27) while they, themselves hit 20 of 28. OU jumped out to a 48-30 halftime advantage and never really looked back. The encouraging news was the fact that Texas outscored the Sooners 41-32 in the second half, but the deficit was already too large to overcome. Although they were the #1 team in the land for a week, they have proven to not be as good as that ranking, especially when they play on the road. At home, however, it's a different story. The Longhorns are 14-2 in Austin and come in on the heels of an embarrassing road loss at A&M. OU, meanwhile, is just playing bad basketball no matter where they are.
Six consecutive losses, including three home losses coupled with the fact they covered only one of those games has me believing they don't stand a chance tonight. Texas is a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS in their last five home meetings with the Sooners, including last year's 5-point win as 1-point chalk... and that Sooners team had All-Everything Blake Griffin. The other four Texas wins were ALL by double digits and never really close. The Longhorns are still in the Big Tournament while the Sooners know they are rebuilding for next year, so this game clearly means more to the boys from Austin. Rivalry, revenge, and seeding in the Big 12 Conference tournament is enough for me. Texas by 20.
OU (FIRST HALF ONLY) --- Somewhat of a hedge bet as I hate watching the Longhorns in the first half. For whatever reason it takes them a while to get going, and if they get out to a double digit lead at halftime, I'm willing to bet they continue to roll up the score in the second half without letting up. But when is the last time the Longhorns have had a first-half lead at home that covered the number? You have to look back at the Nebraska game... a game that will probably have the same look-and-feel as tonight's game. They grabbed a 20-point+ lead in the first half and never gave it up. OU has too much pride to get down by 20+ to Texas in the first half, and because of the nature of this rivalry combined with the fact Texas is a HORRIBLE first half team, I feel comfortable getting 7 or 8 points in the first half and then watching Texas turn it on in the second half. I hate "hedge" type bets, but I truly believe we can nail both of these wagers tonight, going 2-0 and getting back on track.
FREE --- SAN ANTONIO ---- Tough break with UConn yesterday. I still feel like I was on the right side of that game, and watching the Huskies lose an 11-point first half lead with less than a minute to play was a bit disheartening. You go from 11 up to 5 up on the strength of two three-pointers and now your lead is 5. Still, a five-point halftime advantage should have been more than enough, but the Cardinals kept raining threes and in the first three minutes of the second half and eventually found themselves up 5 on the strength of a 13-3 run to start the half. They would never really look back. UConn took two leads in the second half but just couldn't come up with enough stops. Bad loss that should cost them a trip to the Big Dance. You can't lose to Louisville at home... you just can't. I'm still up nearly 100 dimes with my last 14 paid selections (11-3-1) and with a 2-0 night tonight I'll be up nearly 140 while posting a 13-3-1 record.
Tonight's Bonus Play is on the San Antonio Spurs to beat the Hornets on the road. New Orleans used a lot of energy last night in Dallas, coming back from 25 down to draw within 4 in the fourth quarter (but still lost by 8). They had to turn around, very late last night, get on a red-eye flight to New Orleans, and now get ready to play a suddenly-surging San Antonio team? Sorry, I don't see it. Even at home where they sport a 20-9 overall record, I'm not sure the Hornets are going to have enough gas left in the tank to overcome a veteran team like San Antonio. With the Spurs having dropped three straight on the highway, they are more than overdue for a road win, and this is just the venue to do it. It's not like the Hornets' fans really come out in droves to support this team, so the "home court advantage" thing doesn't hold much water with me. And I'm not sure if you believe in stuff like this, but San Antonio is really good on Mondays, covering 12 of their last 18 with one push. I'll side with the Spurs in a near-pick 'em.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
