ThisProGambler
Bettin’ With the Squares! Hawks, Mavs, Jazz
Posted on March 1, 2010 by ThisProGambler
Yesterday the favorites in the NBA went 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS). Tonight won’t be so predictable. I’m picking two Road dogs that should win outright. And, I’m picking a Road favorite as the Jazz head into the Staples Center to play that other team in Los Angeles.
Take the Atlanta Hawks +1 at the Chicago Bulls. All things equal, the
Atlanta Hawks should be as much as a 5 point favorite in this game, even though it’s on the Road.
So, why has it been pushed so far the other way? One reason is that
Chicago Bulls won the last meeting at home with the Hawks by 3 points, even though they lost to the Hawks in Atlanta by 10 and 35 points. But, the
real reason is that Atlanta played a tough overtime game last night in beating the Bucks and fatigue may be a factor. The Bulls will be wanting to rebound from their poor performance in Indiana on Saturday, but one of the main reasons for that poor performance – injuries with
Deng and
Noah, even if they play – are still problems.
The Bulls are good Against the Spread at Home (58%), but the Atlanta Hawks are good Against the Spread on the Road (57%). The
Bulls are 6-12 against top-tier teams, and I simply don’t see enough to believe that the odds should be moved all the way to the Bulls.
Take the Hawks +1.
Take the Dallas Mavericks +3 at the Charlotte Bobcats. The math on this line might not be too far off what the numbers dictate, but the
Mavs are simply a different team than they were two weeks ago – literally and figuratively. After an opening loss to the
Oklahoma City Thunder with their new pieces in place, the
Mavericks have rattled off 7 straight wins (including the Lakers, Magic, and Suns). To make the new package complete
Caron Butler was back in the line up last night, adding 19 Points.
Jason Kidd is playing like the best point guard in the league.
There’s only one draw back – the Mavs played a late game last night against
New Orleans, and will get into Charlotte in the wee hours of the morning. But, I believe in streaks and think it will take more than a late night to end this one. The
Charlotte Bobcats a
re 7-13 against top-tier teams, 4-6 in their last 10, and 3-7 ATS. Take the Mavs +3.
Take the Jazz -6 at the Los Angeles Clippers. The Jazz regained some swagger with their Saturday beating of the
Rockets after an uncharacteristic let-down in
Sacramento the night before. They are
7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10, and 5-1 SU and ATS on the Road during that stretch (Jazz are a solid Road team for the season Against the Spread, winning 62% of the time). They are still in tie with the red-hot
Dallas Mavericks for the 3rd spot in the West, and the Clippers have done nothing to slow them down. The Jazz has beat the
Los Angeles Clippers twice this year, the last by 10 points on Feb. 9 in the Staples Center. The Clippers put together a nice little 3 game winning streak in their last home stand, but followed it with two Road losses. They
are 6-8-1 in back to back games, and most of those were not against a team like the Jazz.
Take the Jazz -7.
As an aside, about 5AM PT, the odds for the
Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets game finally went up on one board as
Toronto -6.5! I haven’t been that excited since…well, for a while….was trying to figure out how to move money in the middle of the night to that sports book and ready to start tweeting to you guys! But, before I got too carried away, reality set in and I saw IT HAD TO BE A MISTAKE. Those numbers were a little heavy, but in my line I had the Rockets as a 5 point favorite. Sure enough by morning, it was up across the board – Houston Rockets -6.5!! The line has settled at 6 points and I’m passing on the game (Raptors are going to wait for Bosh to get the ship on course, but the injured Rockets are 1-4 in their last 5 home games).
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