Here's my daily contrib:
VR’s Morning Moves - Monday, March 01, 2010
Report Status: MONDAY MARCH 1st, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on TUES 3-2-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for MONDAY MARCH 1st, 2010
HANDICAPPING : “PRIME-TIME” MARQUEE MATCH-UPS
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Not a very good way to close out the month of February, and believe me…I am as aware of this as anyone, and am focused on making sure that we get back on track quickly…
The only thing that I ever ask of my guys is that they always try to keep everything in perspective…Because we will have some great runs, and some tough ones as well…And that is a mathematical certainty that we all have to overcome, in order to truly turn a profit betting on sports…
For my long-term Subscribers…the Bottom Line is that we started February Up $1,190 ($100 Per Unit) for 2010...And today, we start March Up +2,220 for 2010...
So even though I always want more…and am not one bit happy with the way we closed out the final week or so of February…I am very optimistic for March, and there is no better comfort than looking at your Account Balance for 2010...and knowing there is more there today, than there was on the 1st of January…Which is ultimately the reason that I bet on sports to begin with…
And the way the profit was made…or the journey traveled to make it, at least for myself…becomes irrelevant…The only thing that I care about, is actually MAKING it…
Now let’s move on to today’s topic, and then try to start the new month off with a Winner tonight…
This is a topic that I have been asked about many times…and one that was sent in by more than one Subscriber, to be addressed…So I figured today would be an excellent day to discuss it, especially since we have a perfect example of this on Tonight’s CBB Board…Where there are only 4 match-ups, but 2 of those are “Prime-Time” Televised Games…
For starters, the one thing that we can be certain of…and I know this from years of bookmaking, and from speaking with so many other books through the years…”Prime-Time” Match-Ups will attract the heaviest volume from the recreational bettors…And many times, that volume far out-weighs any wagering done by the Betting Syndicates on the game…Because of that, the odds makers and bookmakers need to approach them differently to attempt to attract balanced or 2-way betting action on the game…
The easiest way for the odds makers to try and get their clients, the bookmakers balanced action…is by offering a “Fair Line” instead of a “True Line”…Because many times, they know that the “True Line” may keep the Betting Syndicates away…but at the same time, that price will entice 1-way action from the “Betting Public”…And that is not what the books want, especially on a game that is going to attract so much Volume…
Because on games where the volume is very high…the books prefer to limit their liability and instead grab the huge amount of VIG that bettors are laying…And although a 50/50 split may not be exactly possible…they definitely don’t want to end up 90/10 on “Prime-Time” Match-Ups…Because that would mean way too much exposure for just 1 game…
Usually, but sending out a “Fair Line” which has already been influenced by “Public Perception”…the books are able to attain more balance…And this gives us sharper bettors so much more VALUE…And there is a huge mis-conception by bettors that these “Prime-Time” or “Marquee” Match-Ups will usually have the “sharpest” lines since the books know these games will attract the most volume…
Because let’s not forget…the purpose of a betting line is not to be “Correct”…or else we would have so many more “pushes”…Instead, the purpose of a betting line is to attract balanced action or money…And to do that, many times the books are forced to offer a line that is not a true reflection of each teams ability or “power rating”…And since balance on those games that attract the most volume are the most important for the books…It’s on these games that we tend to see the “softest” lines and not the “sharpest”…
Also, we can’t forget that many times…the books are able to attain balance by having the Betting Syndicates on one side, and the Public Bettors on the other…And when this is the case, the books have no interest in which side gets the money…Because they are assured that one side won’t…And all the Vig that that win along with the losing money…makes sending out a “Fair Line” rather than a “True Line” worth doing…
This is why you should never be too surprised when you see a price that don’t seem to make sense on a “Prime-Time” game…Because more times than not, you will be 100% correct that the line isn’t what it should be…Instead, it’s a line based more on perception than anything else…And it’s these prices that ultimately offer the most value, and become the easiest to beat…
For myself, I have always enjoyed wagering on these games more than any other…And I would go as far as saying that many of my biggest wagers have been made on “Prime-Time” games…Because of the fact that it’s on these games, that my “price” differs most from the “price” being offered…And it’s on those games that you are sure to be getting the best of it…that you should be wanting to take the biggest positions on…
Finally, you also need to be very careful in trying to determine the reasons behind a “line-move” on “Prime-Time” games…Because these are the games that the books are more prone to adjust based on money being bet…rather than “whose” money is being bet…We’ve said before that lines move because a “winning” bettor took a position, or because the books are adjusting to try and entice more balance…And as I’ve stated above…it’s on these games that the books will try to get more balance…And therefore, they will go ahead and move the lines themselves to try and get it…
So you can’t always assume that the “Wiseguys” are on a side or total, simply because you saw a significant line-move…Unlike a less attractive game that isn’t getting much volume…This is why you shouldn’t be too worried when you see a line-move go against you later in the day on a “Prime-Time” game…Because many times, it’s simply an attempt to bring in some money on a particular side, to try and get more balance…
I hope this helps explain my position on “Prime-Time” Games…Because as I’ve said before many times…I really love betting these games and feel that we have a much bigger edge on them at times…than we will ever get elsewhere…So don’t be afraid to bet into those Marquee Match-Ups…Because they sometimes allow you to get way more Value than other bets do…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner…Here’s to a Winning March !!
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 707 SA SPURS -2.5
The Wiseguys laid -2 on the Spurs when this line went up and that’s why we are seeing 2.5’s across the board…I don’t think we are finished seeing an adjustment here and the only way that I think it will move…is UP…Because the Outfits will be able to get ahead of the market if they lay -2.5...Since I am certain that the betting public will also be betting the Spurs later today…So unless there is some “steam” the other way…I believe we are safe in saying this line should only move one way…VR
2.) 717-718 UNDER 202 UTAH/LAC
This is another position taken immediately by the Betting Syndicates who forced the adjustment down from 203...But word is, they aren’t done yet and we may very well see some more “steam” on this Under before the betting public gets involved…As far as the public goes, I believe any money wagered on the Total will be balanced…This is why the books should be forced to drop it some more, if the Wiseguys go through with that “Buy-Order”…VR
Mon, 03/01/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 711 POR -1.0 (-110) SportBet vs 712 MEM
Analysis:
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
Let's try and get March off to a Winning start with another TRUE STEAM BET (6-2)...And get on board with the Betting Syndicates tonight by taking the Trailblazers on the Road...The books brought the wrong team out Favored and the Wiseguys let them know it by grabbing +1 on Portland...But they weren't done yet, because they came right back and laid PICK as well...According to my own Ratings, they could have still kept going because we are getting plenty of Value on this one...Let's back Portland and lay -1 for 2 Units...VR
