Service Plays Monday 2/15/10

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Lance's Lock

Pick: Manhattan +1
Overall: 915-804-33
Current Streak: 1 loss
 

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VR`s Morning Moves - Monday, February 15, 2010
Report Status: MONDAY FEB 15th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on TUE 2-16-10
Notes:

“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for MONDAY FEB 15th, 2010

MONEY MANAGEMENT : “FLAT BETTING”


We did it again…Another “Morning Move” Winner on Sunday to take us to “10-2 or 3” Overall…I will take the time today to go through each day’s wager to see exactly where we stand, and if the gentlemen who sent the e-mail letting me know that I’ve counted one more loser than I should have was correct…But regardless, the bottom line is that we are cashing some tickets and beating the books…And my Premium Subscribers are now Up Over “$4,200 ($100 per Unit) for 2010...

Now besides the fact that I really enjoy getting the opportunity to pass along to you, each day, many of the experiences and knowledge that I’ve acquired in all these years in the industry…As well as a lot of the concepts and approaches that I use to handicapp and to wager…I also get the chance to pass along those “Early Positions” that I have Confirmed and Bet…

Before this, many times the Lines would change by the time I was able to Update my Card…And because some of the “value” was lost, I would be forced to pass on adding the bet to my Premium Card…But now, I can get those positions to you nice and early…Which allows you time to decide if it’s one that you also agree on…

With that said, there will be days where I am unable to “Confirm” a position this early…And in those instances, I will tell you right now that I will have absolutely no problem at all PASSING…Because the there is just no way that I would ever ask someone to bet on an opinion that I’m not backing with my own money…And I will not ever force myself to come up with a selection just to pass along with the Newsletter…So please understand that when this is the case, I am simply trying to look out for your best interest and nothing more…Now let’s move on to today’s topic…

Yesterday, we discussed the fact that I believe there are ONLY “2” (Flat Betting & Adjustable Units) successful ways to bet on sports…And I am not saying that any other approach doesn’t work, and if you are using one that you have truly had success with…which makes mathematical sense…then by all means, continue using it and better yet…Pass it along to others who may be able to benefit as well…

With that said, I can only talk about the 2 “Money Management” Systems that I have used and had plenty of success with…And more importantly, as I discussed yesterday…these are also the 2 systems which are employed by the Betting Syndicates who have proven to be able to win the most…

So if the men who have continued to beat this market for decades…who I am sure have definitely done the work required to prove to themselves that it’s the method which produces the most profit with the least amount of risk…then I believe that we should also take advantage of these systems…

The first, which we will discuss today is “Flat Betting”…Which means that regardless of how much you like a position, you are going to be betting the EXACT same amount on all of them…And win or lose, that is not ever going to change…until of course you reach a certain plateau with your bankroll…then decide to increase your bet size…But even then, the proceeding bets until you reach the next plateau will ALL be the same…

This is actually the system that the man I call my mentor had forced me to use…Because back in the day, when I was bookmaking as well as moving “steam”…I didn’t have as much respect for money as I do now, and to be perfectly honest, I definitely had some “gamble” in me…

So many times, even though I had access to some of the strongest information that you can ever imagine…Even stronger than what the Wiseguys get today, since we didn’t have the internet and information didn’t spread the way it does today…Nor did as many people have access to it…Plus, the bookmakers didn’t simply move a line on “air” like they do today…Which is something that we will discuss in future Newsletters, because this actually changed the market forever…

So even though I had access to such winning information, many times I found myself not being able to profit with it because I wasn’t wagering correctly…Until my mentor stepped in and made me give him my word that for 12 months, I would do nothing but “Flat Bet” every single wager that I made…And that meant I could never change the amount of the bet, no matter how much I may have liked it…Nor was I even allowed to increase my wager amount after reaching a certain level with my bankroll…

That was by far the #1 experience that changed my life forever…I am not exaggerating…In fact, having to wager that way for an entire year was so eye-opening…that it truly changed my entire outlook on money…It made me understand how to build and save money…How you can’t wait until you have a lot of it, in order to save…Instead, the only way that you will ever have a lot of it…is by saving a little at a time…There just isn’t an easy way…

Over that year, I really learned how much easier it was to beat this market when you follow a successful “Money Management” system…Because it totally takes the guess work out of the equation…I mean, you already know how much you are going to be betting…so you can use the rest of your time to focus on choosing winning positions and other things that will benefit your business…

But when you spend just as much time trying to figure out how much you are going to bet and things like that…then you are doing a disservice to yourself…More importantly, you open the door for so many possible problems that you really don’t need..

By employing this method, I was able to see first hand that the “sequence” (we discussed this in previous newsletter) of wins and loses doesn’t matter at all…Because the only thing that does is winning more bets than we lose over the course of a year…And it wasn’t until I started wagering this way, that this concept became crystal clear and made so much business sense…

Until then, although I had winning information…I was not investing with it, I was gambling with it…And we all know how that always turns out in the end…But by being forced to give my word that for 1 year, I would not do anything but “Flat Bet”…I totally took the gamble out of it and finally approached it like a businessman should approach his business…If of course his ultimately goal is to make money…

Now if you do use this method, then you have to promise yourself that no matter how tough of a stretch you are having, or how much you like a position…you are not going to break your rule, and instead, you are going to follow the winning guidelines that you have set for your business to be a success…And nothing should ever make you change that…

Also, as far as increasing your bet when you reach a certain plateau with your bankroll…Although that is a good idea, once again…you have to be very disciplined to do this or else it can really lead to problems…Because what happens if when you increase your amount, you happen to go on your worse stretch ever…That may be a huge negative on your mind-set, which is something you can’t allow…So if you are going to do this, then make sure that you are mentally ready…Otherwise, continue with the same “Flat Bet” until you KNOW that you are ready…

Finally, I want to ask you all to try this out…For the very least, give it 6 months, or even better 1 whole year like I had to do…And I promise you, it will allow you to look at this market in a manner that you never have before…It will open your eyes to how turning a profit actually happens, and make you see so many of the mistakes you have made in the past…

Look at it this way, you have tried a lot of different ways to make money betting on sports…So what’s one more…You owe it to yourself to at least try to use a system that’s employed by the Wiseguys we all know beat this market…And when you do, no matter how tough things may get…DON’T ever change the direction of your course…Because the only way to gain experience and knowledge on this system, is by staying on it…What’s the worst that can happen ?? You may just realize like I did, how easy it actually is to make money betting on sports…And how instead, we as bettors make it harder on ourselves than it truly needs to be…Which is something the sports books depend on…So don’t give them that satisfaction…

Next, we will cover the 2nd approach (Unit Adjustment)…And I will discuss the pro and cons for that one as well…With the hope that after you read BOTH, you will choose the one that you feel is in your best interest and use it to your benefit…I can promise you that you will learn things about this business and yourself, that you otherwise wouldn’t…That alone is worth the experiment…

Thanks again fellas for all your support…And best of luck…I am currently trying to Confirm a “Morning Move”, so it may be Uploaded a little later than the 12pm est time it usually is…But that’s only because I want to make sure that it’s a position I want to put my money down on right now…Vegas-Runner


LINE-PREDICTION :

1.) UNDER 136 UL-MON/ARK ST

The Wiseguys already forced an adjustment down from 137...But after speaking with a couple of guys who move “steam”…I don’t think that they are finished yet, and when more “outs” are offering a Total with limits that are worth it…we just may see another “Buy-Order” sent out on the Under…It’s also a Total that I think any “public” money bet will also be on the Under…And even though this Total shouldn’t get too much attention from the “public”…any attention should be on the same side as the Outfits…VR



Mon, 02/15/10 - 9:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 707 Hawaii 11.5 (-110) Bodog vs 708 NMex St
Analysis:

** CBB "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

Some definite Value in this one...As my TRUE LINE shows that this price should be closer to -8.5, than to -12 where it opened...And it's obvious that the Wiseguys agree because they already took a position as when this line went up...It's obvious that with such a small board, the Bookmakers have decided to throw out a Fair Line because they know that the public bettors will be on the Home Fav in this match-up...And to limit their liability, they are allowing the Outfits to grab some Value by coming in on the Dog...I like the match-up, and I love the price...So let's see if we can cash another "Morning Move" to start the new week off...VR
 
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Monday Bonus Play- GC

On Monday the Bonus Play is on Texas Game 710 at 9:00 eastern. The Aggies are taking 7 points tonight from Kansas.The Bonus Plays have struggled of late lets see if we can back on track. Taking this many points with an undefeated home team at this juncture of the season has always been a good investment. Not to mention the Aggies are a solid 6-0 vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. When the total is 140 to 145 they have won 5 of 6 at home and have cashed 13 of the last 17 February games. They come in here off 4 straight wins and covers in what is their biggest game of the season vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have excellent numbers in most categories but are just 3-4 ats in lined road games this year and will not have it as easy as they did last Monday against Texas. Look for a much closer game than anticipated. On the Monday card I have a Big 5* play backed with five power angles that total to 30-3,late phones have been good. lets pick it up with the Bonus Plays. Take the Points with Texas. BOL GC
 

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Brandon Lang Monday's Selection .... NOTE: Back by 2pm with your breakdown

10 DIME - VILLANOVA WILDCATS

10 DIME - NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES

10 DIME - TEXAS A&M AGGIES


FREE PICK - MANHATTAN JASPERS
 

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The Real Matt Rivers

OffshoreInsiders.com Matt Rivers has Connecticut plus the points. According to the college basketball odds they are getting 9.5 at Villanova. Here is what the top handicapper in the pick nation, Matt Rivers says about the contest:

Jim Calhoun's Connecticut Huskies are rapidly becoming a disgrace of a team that may have already quit on the season but this is still not a terrible spot to back them in a small play.

It is impossible to invest the mortgage on this underachieving of a team that could conceivably get blasted by 40 if they continue to play as they did last game against the Bearcats and Villanova continues to play as they have but all in all the number is enough in this spot.

Jay Wright's Wildcats are the best team in the Big East and are led by a superstar point guard in Scottie Reynolds. Villanova is extremely deep and athletic and have a shot at winning the National Championship when all is said and done. But with Pitt, Syracuse and West Virginia upcoming on the schedule and after seeing how the Huskies at least competed and covered two games ago in Syracuse I can see this thing being a little tighter than the experts believe.

There are no two ways around it; UCONN was pathetic in that last game at home against Cincinnati. There are two ways this team can go; completely quit and embarrass themselves to the max or come out fighting and prove that Calhoun is a top notch coach. I do think the latter will take place, as Dyson, Edwards, Walker, Robinson and the Huskies still possess a lot of talent and some Heart, I think.

The Huskies have lost five of six and thinking it won't be six of seven is a little asinine but they do still play some defense and should slow down the Wildcats from their usual ferocious pace keeping this game a little different than what Villanova has become accustomed to of late. I'm not saying that points will be at a premium or this will be a Heat/Knicks type of a battle from the early 90's but we're not going to see 'Nova nearing 100 points and to get about 10 back is worth a stab.
 

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ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take #708 New Mexico State (-11.5) over Hawaii (9 p.m.,
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 145.5 Hawaii at New Mexico State (9 p.m.,
1.5-Unit Play. Take #726 Maryland (-8.5) over Virginia (8 p.m., Monday,
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #708 New Mexico State (-6.5) over Hawaii (9 p.m.) AND Take #726 Maryland (-3.5) over Virginia (8 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #716 St. Peter’s (-3.5) over Rider (7 p.m., Monday, Feb.
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #726 Maryland (-3.5) over Virginia (8 p.m.) AND Take #711 Western Carolina (-1.5) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m.)
 

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ALLEN EASTMAN (ACE-ACE)

CBB

(713) 1.5 units FAIRFIELD -1
(716) 1 unit ST PETERS OVER 126
 

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EAFRA SOCCER

1* MSV Duisburg PK (-105), German Bundesliga 2

1* Bristol/Charlton UNDER 2.5 (-120), England League One
 

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SPARTAN

double-dime bet 710 Texas A&M 7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 709 Kansas Analysis: In my view we have a very live and dangerous dog here with the Aggies. They have been playing well for Mark Turgeon and I expect Reed Arena to be wired tonight. The Big 12 can be a brutal place for travelers and I expect the Aggies to play Kansas close to the end. The Aggies have proven to be a resilient bunch and have gotten up off the deck and rallied from double digit deficits in the last three games. They sport a perfect 13-0 mark at home with 5 of those being conference wins. We all know Bill Self is a great coach but this team of his has a dangerous habit of playing to the level of competition and can be sporadic. They are a veteran team that feels like it can turn it on whenever the need arises. This Kansas squad knows they have the conference wrapped up and I feel they are not going to be as dialed in tonight as the home guys. Remember when the Jayhawks needed overtime… just awhile back to escape Boulder, Colorado with a victory? I can assure you this Aggie club is on a different level than the Buffs. In the end, just too many points guys.

2* TEXAS A&M +7.5
 

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KILLER SPORTS LIVE

10* Hawaii/New Mexico State UNDER 147.5
10* UCONN +9.5
10* VIRGINIA +9
 

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BEATTHEFIX

4* UCONN +9 .5
3* Manhattan +2
2* Tenn State -1.5
 

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Matt Dennehy
21-7 Bonus Play RUN (75%)
NEW MEXICO ST -11.5 over Hawaii 9 EST
 

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NFL ADVOCATE - OFF-SEASON SELECTIONS

Tennessee Tech (CBB) +1.5

Overall Off-Season Record (6-1) (85%)
 

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