STATSYSTEMS REPORT 12/6 cont.
*** TORONTO @ INDIANA (-7, O/U 208) ***
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The Indiana Pacers are off to their best start in three seasons, but are struggling to take care of the ball. The Toronto Raptors hope that trend continues. The turnover-prone Pacers return home Monday night after a four-game West Coast road trip to host the Raptors. Indiana committed a season-high 25 turnovers and blew a 12-point lead in Friday’s 105-97 defeat in Phoenix. The Pacers are at the .500 mark through 18 games for the first time since 2007-08, but dropped the final two games of their trip after winning the first two.
“We’re not a happy group right now, nor should we be,” coach Jim O’Brien told the team’s official website. “We had a chance to make this a very good road trip and we didn’t do it.” Providing extra possessions for the opposition also cost the Pacers in a 110-88 defeat at Utah on Wednesday. Indiana lost the turnover battle 43-21 in the two losses combined. Danny Granger who averages 21.8 points but was held to eight against the Suns, said Indiana is confident it can get back on track. “We’re disappointed, a little frustrated we let one get away in Phoenix with 100 turnovers or whatever it was,” Granger said. “We’ve just got to come back (Monday) night (against Toronto).”
The Raptors are looking to bounce back themselves after a 116-99 loss to New York on Sunday. Toronto has dropped three of five after a season-high four-game winning streak. Coach Jay Triano wasn’t pleased with his team’s effort, despite placing at least five players in double figures for the fourth straight game. “You can go through the list and see who didn’t play well for us,” Triano said. “When your list is that long you’re not going to beat the better teams”
Jerryd Bayless scored a season-high 23 points off the bench in his fifth game since the Raptors acquired him from Portland in a Nov. 20 trade. The guard, whom the Pacers originally selected with the 11th pick in the 2008 draft before trading him to Portland, had 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting the last time he faced Indiana, a 102-79 Blazers victory March 3. The Raptors would welcome another solid effort from Amir Johnson(notes), who set a season high with 22 points and grabbed a career-high 16 rebounds against the Knicks. He’s scored in double figures in his last two games after back-to-back four-point performances.
“I’m taking the open shots and I’m not rushing anything,” Johnson said. “I just try and make myself available and knock down shots.” Toronto has lost four straight in Indiana including a 130-115 defeat Feb. 2, but did get a career-high 34 points from Andrea Bargnani in that contest. Danny Granger had 23 points to lead seven Pacers in double figures.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Indiana by 5; O/U 203
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Indiana -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Indiana -5.60
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 84-53 ATS (+25.6 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 99.0, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 98.8, OPPONENT 108.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 31-16 OVER (+15.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.1, OPPONENT 110.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 24-8 OVER (+15.1 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.7, OPPONENT 110.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 39-20 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 54.3, OPPONENT 53.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 8-23 against the 1rst half line (-17.3 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.3, OPPONENT 55.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 160-119 UNDER (+29.1 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 48.1, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--INDIANA is 31-12 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 46.5, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (TORONTO) - good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).
(136-80 since 1996.) (63.0%, +48 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 102.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50, Opponent 50.3 (Total first half points scored = 100.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (51-27).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (71-40).
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*** ATLANTA @ ORLANDO (-6.5, O/U 188) ***
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With key players missing, both the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic struggled in their last games. However the Magic at least have a chance to get some players back when they host the Hawks on Monday night. Orlando had only eight players active before its game against Milwaukee on Saturday after Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Mickael Pietrus were sent home because of a stomach virus. Ryan Anderson also didn’t play because of a sprained foot.
The short-handed Magic struggled against the Bucks, losing 96-85 to snap a six-game winning streak. Their starting frontcourt of Quentin Richardson, Rashard Lewis and Marcin Gortat combined to make 13 of 35 shots while Orlando fell well shy of the 99.3 points it came in averaging. “We don’t look at this as an excuse for tonight’s game,” Richardson, who scored 16 points, told the Magic’s official website. “We know we’re a deep team and have at least one other player at each position that could possibly start on any other NBA team.”
Howard, Nelson and Pietrus, who all also missed a 104-91 win at Detroit on Friday, remain day-to-day along with Redick, who missed Friday’s game as well as Tuesday’s win over Chicago. Anderson is doubtful to play Monday. If Howard sits out Monday it will match the most games he’s missed in a single season. The Orlando center came into this season having missed only three games, all in 2008-09, over his six-plus year career. It figures to be tough to keep him on the bench against the Hawks, who he’s averaged 22.0 points and 16.8 rebounds against in the last six meetings.
While Orlando has struggled to put together a healthy lineup the last two games, it may still be in better position than Atlanta, which expects to be without star guard Joe Johnson for four to six weeks after he underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery Thursday. After winning their first two games without their best player, the Hawks lost 89-77 to Miami on Saturday, snapping a five-game winning streak with their third road loss in 10 games. Atlanta will need someone to make up the team-leading 17.1 points and 5.2 assists Johnson was averaging. Al Horford had 22 points on 10 of 11 shooting, but the rest of the team shot 31.9 percent.
Horford was pleased to see his team attempt to rally from a 17-point deficit, outscoring the Heat 25-13 in the third quarter. “It is disappointing but I’m proud of the way the guys hung in there,” he said. “We were down big in the first half but we kept fighting. We just couldn’t pull it off tonight.” Making up a big deficit against Orlando would be just as tough. The Magic swept the Hawks out of the playoffs last spring, winning the four games by an average of 25.3 points. They then won the first regular season matchup, 93-89 on Nov. 8. The loss was Atlanta’s sixth straight in Orlando. The Hawks haven’t won on the road against the Magic since a 99-85 victory Oct. 29, 2008, averaging 85.3 points in those six losses.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 6; O/U 190.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -7.77
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.5, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 88.7, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--ATLANTA is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 87.4, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 63-42 UNDER (+16.7 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.1, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 56-34 UNDER (+17.5 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 94.6, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 91.4, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 35-17 against the 1rst half line (+16.1 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 53.0, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 31-49 against the 1rst half line (-22.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 48.7, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 53-32 UNDER (+17.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.5, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 91-60 UNDER (+25.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 45.2, OPPONENT 49.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--ATLANTA is 48-27 UNDER (+18.3 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 42.8, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(39-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.9, Opponent 45.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-12).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (68-44).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(42-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.4, Opponent 45.1 (Total first half points scored = 90.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (80-50).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(51-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.1
The average score in these games was: Team 90.5, Opponent 90 (Total points scored = 180.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 40 (52.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (159-122).
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*** MINNESOTA @ NEW YORK (-6.5, O/U 221) ***
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The New York Knicks are a far different team than their last matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves, when they allowed Kevin Love to enjoy one of the best games in NBA history. The teams will meet again Monday night at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks in search of a fifth straight win and a season split with Love and the Timberwolves. New York has won nine of 10 since a 3-8 start. The Knicks play seven of their next nine at home after playing a league-high 13 road games to this point.
One of those road games was a 112-103 loss to Minnesota on Nov. 12 in which New York blew a 21-point lead in the third quarter. Love scored 31 points and grabbed a franchise-record 31 rebounds for the NBA’s first 30-30 game in 28 years. “Kevin had an incredible game,” Minnesota coach Kurt Rambis said after the game. “Those numbers are just stupid. I don’t even know what to say.” Love has continued to play well, matching the Lakers’ Pau Gasol for the league lead with 15 double-doubles. The third-year forward is averaging 23.7 points and 18.8 rebounds during a run of six straight double-doubles after he had 28 and 19 in a 129-95 rout of Cleveland on Saturday that ended a six-game losing streak.
“We just want to take the same effort that we had tonight into the New York game and through the rest of next week and kind of get things going our way,” Love said. “I think the best part about today is we were only focused on this game, not worrying about the losing streak or really anything else.” Frontcourt mate Michael Beasley missed the victory with a sprained ankle. His absence would be a boost for the Knicks since Beasley had 35 points in last month’s meeting.
While Love has been outstanding, the same can be said of New York’s Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire is averaging 34.3 points over the last four games, and had 31 and a season-high 16 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-99 win at Toronto. “He’s got broad shoulders and we jump on them a lot of times,” Coach Mike D’Antoni said. “He plays at ease. It’s very comforting to know that you can just throw it over to him and he’s going to get a wide-open jump shot or he’s dunking or he’s going to get a foul on him. He’s not forcing things he’s just been playing terrific.”
Stoudemire should find some resistance against Darko Milicic who will return to MSG for the first time since an eight game stint with the Knicks last season. Milicic leads the NBA with 55 blocks, and helped limit Stoudemire to a season low-tying 14 points last month. That was before Stoudemire started developing better chemistry with fellow newcomer Raymond Felton who is averaging 21.2 points and 9.6 assists over his last nine games. “We’re starting to buy into the system offensively and we’ve got better spacing,” Stoudemire said. “The chemistry is phenomenal between myself and Raymond. Defensively we’re doing a much better job of containing guys and sticking to our principles. We’ve gotten smarter.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 7.5; O/U 216
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -7.60
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--NEW YORK is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) off an road win scoring 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 109.5, OPPONENT 102.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 97.6, OPPONENT 109.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 21-36 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 98.2, OPPONENT 109.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--NEW YORK is 71-48 UNDER (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 96.1, OPPONENT 89.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 58-37 UNDER (+17.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.0, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 52-31 UNDER (+17.8 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 96.7, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 29-14 UNDER (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 102.3, OPPONENT 110.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--NEW YORK is 90-61 against the 1rst half line (+22.9 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 49.3, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 17-36 against the 1rst half line (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.1, OPPONENT 56.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--NEW YORK is 30-12 OVER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 54.5, OPPONENT 55.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 44-25 OVER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 54.0, OPPONENT 55.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team (MINNESOTA) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more.
(22-4 since 1996.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 201.7
The average score in these games was: Team 93.7, Opponent 96 (Total points scored = 189.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 16 (64% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
