HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-December 6th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
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[370] New England |15*|-3.5|B+0|ESPN|8:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "ME (Matchup Edge) System"
National Football Association & NCAAF (54%) +20.95 units
2010/2011 30-26-1 54% |In Season| NFL
2010/2011 32-26-2 55% |In Season| NCAAF
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************
[370] New England |15*|-3.5|B+0|ESPN|8:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "ME (Matchup Edge) System"
National Football Association & NCAAF (54%) +20.95 units
2010/2011 30-26-1 54% |In Season| NFL
2010/2011 32-26-2 55% |In Season| NCAAF
ANTHONY DINERO
NY Jets at Patriots
Pick: Under 41.5
This grudge match game should be decided by QB play, as the decisions made against aggressive defenses on a Monday night will ultimately dictate the winner. Look for Tom Brady, at home, to get the job done by going to ol' reliable, Deion Branch, for a pair of scores to create separation in this victory. Take the Pats and the under in this classic game, as Mark Sanchez will take a back seat here, coming up as the subject of scrutiny Tuesday morning.
NY Jets at Patriots
Pick: Under 41.5
This grudge match game should be decided by QB play, as the decisions made against aggressive defenses on a Monday night will ultimately dictate the winner. Look for Tom Brady, at home, to get the job done by going to ol' reliable, Deion Branch, for a pair of scores to create separation in this victory. Take the Pats and the under in this classic game, as Mark Sanchez will take a back seat here, coming up as the subject of scrutiny Tuesday morning.
Stan the Stat Man
*** MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATROITS
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: NE -3.5 O/U 45
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
As one of the NFL's best rivalries in recent years, a game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots doesn't need any additional hype to pique the interest of the general public. But with both teams presently co-holding the league's best record and getting the platform of a stand-alone Monday night stage, this week's showdown between the AFC powerhouses may be the most highly-anticipated matchup of the 2010 season.
The Jets and Patriots each enter this titanic clash boasting glossy 9-2 ledgers that place the two AFC East foes at the top of the conference heap and put them alongside NFC front-runner Atlanta for the most victories in the NFL after the season's first 12 weeks. With the winner gaining the inside track to the AFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the upcoming playoffs, it's quite easy to justify all the buildup that will surround Foxborough's Gillette Stadium on Monday. There's also the simple fact that these two combatants simply don't like one another, with the bad blood dating back to when Patriots head Coach Bill Belichick -- then the Jets' defensive coordinator -- abruptly resigned upon being tabbed to replace Bill Parcells as New York's sideline boss following the 1999 season to accept the same post in New England.
Plenty of subsequent incidents have helped maintain the animosity, from the contentious feud between Belichick and one-time disciple Eric Mangini during the latter's tenure as the Jets head coach, New York's whistle-blowing on the Pats in the infamous "Spygate" episode of 2007, and Mangini's successor Rex Ryan's boisterous claims this past summer that the Jets, who placed second to New England in the division last season but reached the conference title game as a Wild Card entry, were the AFC's team to beat heading into the 2010 campaign.
The Jets helped back Ryan's claims with a 28-14 home victory over the Patriots back in Week 2, in which New York scored 18 unanswered points in the second half and pressured New England quarterback Tom Brady into his worst showing of the season. The Patriots mustered a paltry 80 total yards after intermission, with Brady misfiring on nine of his 16 pass attempts and throwing two interceptions over the final two quarters.
The superstar signal-caller has been much better as of late, however. Brady brings a career-best streak of 199 straight passes without an interception into Monday's encounter, and he was brilliant in New England's 45-24 Thanksgiving Day triumph over Detroit, completing 21-of-27 throws for 341 yards and four touchdowns for a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. Brady's been almost as flawless on his home field over the past few years, having won his last 25 regular-season starts at Gillette Stadium to match an NFL record initially set by Brett Favre from 1997-99. The 2007 league MVP hasn't lost in a non-playoff setting in Foxborough since the Mangini-led Jets posted a 17-14 decision on Nov. 21, 2006.
New York, which also won at New England in 2008 with Brady sidelined with a torn ACL, has an impressive run of its own going on right now. The Jets have won a franchise-record eight straight contests on the road and are 5-0 as the visitor thus far this season. The Jets extended their overall winning streak to four in a row with a 26-10 home verdict over Cincinnati on Thanksgiving, netting all but three of those points in the second half to prevail.
• SERIES HISTORY
--------------------------
The Jets hold a 51-48-1 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Patriots following the previously-noted Week 2 verdict. The teams had a conventional split of last year's home-and-home set, with New England claiming a 31-14 decision at Gillette Stadium, while New York earned a hard-fought 34-31 overtime victory on the road back in 2008. That win was only the Jets' second in their last seven non-playoff stops in Foxborough.
The teams have also met twice in the postseason, including a 26-14 road win for New England in a 1985 AFC First-Round Playoff and a 37-16 triumph for the Pats in a 2006 opening-round tilt. Belichick has a career mark of 15-9 against the Jets, for whom he served as defensive coordinator from 1997 through 1999, including a 14-8 during his tenure with the Patriots. Ryan is 2-1 against both Belichick and the Pats since becoming New York's head coach in 2009.
• WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------------
New York's usual offensive mindset is to employ a ball-control approach centered around the running-back tandem of revitalized veteran LaDainian Tomlinson (741 rushing yards, 5 TD, 45 receptions) and second-year bruiser Shonn Greene (575 rushing yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions). It's an approach that has bred success, as the Jets stand second in the NFL in rushing yards (148.1 ypg) and fourth in time of possession (32:49) and have turned the ball over a total of only 13 times. Though quarterback Mark Sanchez (2472 passing yards, 16 TD, 8 INT) is often utilized as more of a game-manager in the system, the 2009 first-round pick is capable of doing some damage with his arm, as evidenced by his excellent September performance against the Patriots in which he threw for 220 yards and three scores on 21-of-30 passing. Tight end Dustin Keller (39 receptions, 5 TD) was Sanchez's preferred target that day, compiling a career-best 115 yards and a touchdown on seven catches, but he's taken a back seat to wide receivers Santonio Holmes (32 receptions, 4 TD) and Braylon Edwards (35 receptions, 6 TD) in the pecking order as of late. New York's 11th-ranked offense (361.6 ypg) also has another dangerous weapon in versatile wideout Brad Smith (216 rushing yards, 1 TD), who sparked the comeback win over the Bengals with a 55-yard touchdown run and an 89-yard kick return for a score.
The Jets will have opportunities to make plays on a New England defense that's given up the second-highest yardage total (399.1 ypg) in the league and rates dead last in passing yards allowed (288.1 ypg), first downs surrendered (23.6/gm.) and opposing completion percentage (68.3 pct.). The Patriots have been adept at forcing turnovers, though, having snared 15 interceptions for the year and five in wins over New England and Detroit leading up to this game. Rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (61 tackles, 5 INT, 12 PD) has been especially opportunistic lately, having picked off three passes during that time frame, while free safety Brandon Meriweather (50 tackles, 2 INT) has racked up 11 interceptions over the past two-plus seasons. New England has been pretty solid against the run for the most part, although the Jets did gain 136 rushing yards in the Week 2 meeting, but generating a consistent pass rush has been a problem, one compounded by the possibility of leading sacker Mike Wright (14 tackles, 5.5 sacks) missing a second straight week with a concussion. The Patriots did take down Sanchez three times earlier this season, with end Gerard Warren (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) recording two of those sacks, while a front seven headed by active inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (132 tackles, 1 sack) and two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork (41 tackles) will be in charge of keeping the Jets' stout running game in check.
• WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------------------
There's little question that the Patriots wouldn't be in their present position without the marvelous play of Brady (2703 passing yards, 23 TD, 4 INT), who's been turnover-free in all but three games this season and continues to excel despite an ever-changing cast of supporting parts. Though he still has his go-to guy in always-reliable wide receiver Wes Welker (65 receptions, 6 TD), who's fresh off a season-high 90-yard, two-touchdown display against the Lions, Brady's been able to make do in spite of the team's trade of playmaker Randy Moss in October and a pair of talented rookies, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (25 receptions, 6 TD) and Aaron Hernandez (36 receptions, 3 TD), having to step into important roles. The midseason acquisition of veteran wideout Deion Branch (46 receptions, 4 TD) has helped the cause, however, with the ex-Seahawk ably stepping into Moss' old position and making a key contribution to the league's highest-scoring offense (30.4 ppg). New England's also gotten good production out of the backfield duo of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (627 rushing yards, 9 TD) and Danny Woodhead (344 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 4 TD), a former Jet who's averaging 5.4 yards per carry and been an impact receiver in passing situations. The Patriots have been one of the league's most efficient teams, having committed just nine giveaways on the year and ranking third in third-down conversion percentage (45.2 pct.).
The Jets will try to combat New England's potent attack with an aggressive defense that's yielded the third-fewest yards in the NFL (296.9 ypg) and is fourth overall in both points allowed (17.0 ppg) and against the run (86.3 ypg). Cornerbacks Darrelle Revis (18 tackles, 8 PD) and Antonio Cromartie (33 tackles, 3 INT, 15 PD) are both outstanding in press coverage, which enables Ryan to dial up a steady diet of blitz packages that were able to frustrate Brady into an off day in the earlier matchup. Though New York lacks an elite pass rusher, outside linebacker Calvin Pace (33 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is a good one and 14-year veteran Jason Taylor (28 tackles, 4 sacks) has shown he can still be effective in a situational role. Don't anticipate the Patriots doing much on the ground against a sturdy front seven that's held the opposition to 3.4 yards per carry, the second-lowest figure in the league, and stifled Cincinnati for 46 rushing yards on 20 attempts on Thanksgiving. Inside linebacker David Harris (74 tackles, 2 sacks) tops the team in tackles, and he and counterpart Bart Scott (57 tackles, 1 sack) are helped out by a couple of quality space-eaters up front in nose tackle Sione Pouha (37 tackles, 1 sack) and end Mike Devito (42 tackles). The Jets have managed just seven interceptions on the year, however, and face a quarterback that hasn't thrown one in six straight games this week.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
The Pats will be looking to avenge a second-half collapse (outscored 18-0) from Week Two of the season, a game in which they were installed as three-point road favorites at New York. That number probably had more to do with the Jets’ struggles on offense in their season opener than anything else so it’s not surprising that the Pats are hovering around the same number as home favorites ten weeks later. Tom Terrific’s 12-2 SU and ATS record with division revenge, including a Gisele-like 8-0 ATS at home, suggests the Pats even the score. However, the Flyboys’ 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS mark as division road dogs when .500 or greater, including 10-1 ATS off a SU win says the Jets take command of the AFC East. So does their 5-0 ATS log as Monday dogs of less than 8 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New England by 3; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New England -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New England -3.8
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 22.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 5-17 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 18.2, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.5, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 29.9, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 45-24 against the 1rst half line (+18.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.2, OPPONENT 9.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 9-25 against the 1rst half line (-15.4 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 9.7, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NY JETS are 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 14.6, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points.
(23-5 since 1983.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.4, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +10.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, in December games.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 26)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (79-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (120-90).
______________________________________
*** MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATROITS
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: NE -3.5 O/U 45
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
As one of the NFL's best rivalries in recent years, a game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots doesn't need any additional hype to pique the interest of the general public. But with both teams presently co-holding the league's best record and getting the platform of a stand-alone Monday night stage, this week's showdown between the AFC powerhouses may be the most highly-anticipated matchup of the 2010 season.
The Jets and Patriots each enter this titanic clash boasting glossy 9-2 ledgers that place the two AFC East foes at the top of the conference heap and put them alongside NFC front-runner Atlanta for the most victories in the NFL after the season's first 12 weeks. With the winner gaining the inside track to the AFC's No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the upcoming playoffs, it's quite easy to justify all the buildup that will surround Foxborough's Gillette Stadium on Monday. There's also the simple fact that these two combatants simply don't like one another, with the bad blood dating back to when Patriots head Coach Bill Belichick -- then the Jets' defensive coordinator -- abruptly resigned upon being tabbed to replace Bill Parcells as New York's sideline boss following the 1999 season to accept the same post in New England.
Plenty of subsequent incidents have helped maintain the animosity, from the contentious feud between Belichick and one-time disciple Eric Mangini during the latter's tenure as the Jets head coach, New York's whistle-blowing on the Pats in the infamous "Spygate" episode of 2007, and Mangini's successor Rex Ryan's boisterous claims this past summer that the Jets, who placed second to New England in the division last season but reached the conference title game as a Wild Card entry, were the AFC's team to beat heading into the 2010 campaign.
The Jets helped back Ryan's claims with a 28-14 home victory over the Patriots back in Week 2, in which New York scored 18 unanswered points in the second half and pressured New England quarterback Tom Brady into his worst showing of the season. The Patriots mustered a paltry 80 total yards after intermission, with Brady misfiring on nine of his 16 pass attempts and throwing two interceptions over the final two quarters.
The superstar signal-caller has been much better as of late, however. Brady brings a career-best streak of 199 straight passes without an interception into Monday's encounter, and he was brilliant in New England's 45-24 Thanksgiving Day triumph over Detroit, completing 21-of-27 throws for 341 yards and four touchdowns for a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. Brady's been almost as flawless on his home field over the past few years, having won his last 25 regular-season starts at Gillette Stadium to match an NFL record initially set by Brett Favre from 1997-99. The 2007 league MVP hasn't lost in a non-playoff setting in Foxborough since the Mangini-led Jets posted a 17-14 decision on Nov. 21, 2006.
New York, which also won at New England in 2008 with Brady sidelined with a torn ACL, has an impressive run of its own going on right now. The Jets have won a franchise-record eight straight contests on the road and are 5-0 as the visitor thus far this season. The Jets extended their overall winning streak to four in a row with a 26-10 home verdict over Cincinnati on Thanksgiving, netting all but three of those points in the second half to prevail.
• SERIES HISTORY
--------------------------
The Jets hold a 51-48-1 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Patriots following the previously-noted Week 2 verdict. The teams had a conventional split of last year's home-and-home set, with New England claiming a 31-14 decision at Gillette Stadium, while New York earned a hard-fought 34-31 overtime victory on the road back in 2008. That win was only the Jets' second in their last seven non-playoff stops in Foxborough.
The teams have also met twice in the postseason, including a 26-14 road win for New England in a 1985 AFC First-Round Playoff and a 37-16 triumph for the Pats in a 2006 opening-round tilt. Belichick has a career mark of 15-9 against the Jets, for whom he served as defensive coordinator from 1997 through 1999, including a 14-8 during his tenure with the Patriots. Ryan is 2-1 against both Belichick and the Pats since becoming New York's head coach in 2009.
• WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------------
New York's usual offensive mindset is to employ a ball-control approach centered around the running-back tandem of revitalized veteran LaDainian Tomlinson (741 rushing yards, 5 TD, 45 receptions) and second-year bruiser Shonn Greene (575 rushing yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions). It's an approach that has bred success, as the Jets stand second in the NFL in rushing yards (148.1 ypg) and fourth in time of possession (32:49) and have turned the ball over a total of only 13 times. Though quarterback Mark Sanchez (2472 passing yards, 16 TD, 8 INT) is often utilized as more of a game-manager in the system, the 2009 first-round pick is capable of doing some damage with his arm, as evidenced by his excellent September performance against the Patriots in which he threw for 220 yards and three scores on 21-of-30 passing. Tight end Dustin Keller (39 receptions, 5 TD) was Sanchez's preferred target that day, compiling a career-best 115 yards and a touchdown on seven catches, but he's taken a back seat to wide receivers Santonio Holmes (32 receptions, 4 TD) and Braylon Edwards (35 receptions, 6 TD) in the pecking order as of late. New York's 11th-ranked offense (361.6 ypg) also has another dangerous weapon in versatile wideout Brad Smith (216 rushing yards, 1 TD), who sparked the comeback win over the Bengals with a 55-yard touchdown run and an 89-yard kick return for a score.
The Jets will have opportunities to make plays on a New England defense that's given up the second-highest yardage total (399.1 ypg) in the league and rates dead last in passing yards allowed (288.1 ypg), first downs surrendered (23.6/gm.) and opposing completion percentage (68.3 pct.). The Patriots have been adept at forcing turnovers, though, having snared 15 interceptions for the year and five in wins over New England and Detroit leading up to this game. Rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (61 tackles, 5 INT, 12 PD) has been especially opportunistic lately, having picked off three passes during that time frame, while free safety Brandon Meriweather (50 tackles, 2 INT) has racked up 11 interceptions over the past two-plus seasons. New England has been pretty solid against the run for the most part, although the Jets did gain 136 rushing yards in the Week 2 meeting, but generating a consistent pass rush has been a problem, one compounded by the possibility of leading sacker Mike Wright (14 tackles, 5.5 sacks) missing a second straight week with a concussion. The Patriots did take down Sanchez three times earlier this season, with end Gerard Warren (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) recording two of those sacks, while a front seven headed by active inside linebacker Jerod Mayo (132 tackles, 1 sack) and two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork (41 tackles) will be in charge of keeping the Jets' stout running game in check.
• WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------------------
There's little question that the Patriots wouldn't be in their present position without the marvelous play of Brady (2703 passing yards, 23 TD, 4 INT), who's been turnover-free in all but three games this season and continues to excel despite an ever-changing cast of supporting parts. Though he still has his go-to guy in always-reliable wide receiver Wes Welker (65 receptions, 6 TD), who's fresh off a season-high 90-yard, two-touchdown display against the Lions, Brady's been able to make do in spite of the team's trade of playmaker Randy Moss in October and a pair of talented rookies, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (25 receptions, 6 TD) and Aaron Hernandez (36 receptions, 3 TD), having to step into important roles. The midseason acquisition of veteran wideout Deion Branch (46 receptions, 4 TD) has helped the cause, however, with the ex-Seahawk ably stepping into Moss' old position and making a key contribution to the league's highest-scoring offense (30.4 ppg). New England's also gotten good production out of the backfield duo of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (627 rushing yards, 9 TD) and Danny Woodhead (344 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 4 TD), a former Jet who's averaging 5.4 yards per carry and been an impact receiver in passing situations. The Patriots have been one of the league's most efficient teams, having committed just nine giveaways on the year and ranking third in third-down conversion percentage (45.2 pct.).
The Jets will try to combat New England's potent attack with an aggressive defense that's yielded the third-fewest yards in the NFL (296.9 ypg) and is fourth overall in both points allowed (17.0 ppg) and against the run (86.3 ypg). Cornerbacks Darrelle Revis (18 tackles, 8 PD) and Antonio Cromartie (33 tackles, 3 INT, 15 PD) are both outstanding in press coverage, which enables Ryan to dial up a steady diet of blitz packages that were able to frustrate Brady into an off day in the earlier matchup. Though New York lacks an elite pass rusher, outside linebacker Calvin Pace (33 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is a good one and 14-year veteran Jason Taylor (28 tackles, 4 sacks) has shown he can still be effective in a situational role. Don't anticipate the Patriots doing much on the ground against a sturdy front seven that's held the opposition to 3.4 yards per carry, the second-lowest figure in the league, and stifled Cincinnati for 46 rushing yards on 20 attempts on Thanksgiving. Inside linebacker David Harris (74 tackles, 2 sacks) tops the team in tackles, and he and counterpart Bart Scott (57 tackles, 1 sack) are helped out by a couple of quality space-eaters up front in nose tackle Sione Pouha (37 tackles, 1 sack) and end Mike Devito (42 tackles). The Jets have managed just seven interceptions on the year, however, and face a quarterback that hasn't thrown one in six straight games this week.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
The Pats will be looking to avenge a second-half collapse (outscored 18-0) from Week Two of the season, a game in which they were installed as three-point road favorites at New York. That number probably had more to do with the Jets’ struggles on offense in their season opener than anything else so it’s not surprising that the Pats are hovering around the same number as home favorites ten weeks later. Tom Terrific’s 12-2 SU and ATS record with division revenge, including a Gisele-like 8-0 ATS at home, suggests the Pats even the score. However, the Flyboys’ 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS mark as division road dogs when .500 or greater, including 10-1 ATS off a SU win says the Jets take command of the AFC East. So does their 5-0 ATS log as Monday dogs of less than 8 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New England by 3; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New England -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New England -3.8
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 22.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 5-17 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 18.2, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.5, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--NY JETS are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 29.9, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 45-24 against the 1rst half line (+18.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 14.2, OPPONENT 9.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NY JETS are 9-25 against the 1rst half line (-15.4 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 9.7, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 17.6, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NY JETS are 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 14.6, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points.
(23-5 since 1983.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.4, Opponent 6.5 (Average first half point differential = +10.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, in December games.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 26)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (79-53).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (120-90).
______________________________________
MOnday Night Football Total- GC
Monday night Football. New York at New England looks to be the best game all year on any day. In this piece we will delve into all the Pertinent stats associated with this game. The Free Pick in this game will Be on the Under.
On Monday night its Mayhem for sure. The Jets and Patriots may be an East Coast match up. However this game that pits to of the Best teams in the AFC will draw Plenty of attention nation wide. Both teams come in with stellar 9-2 records and both appear headed to another playoff appearance.
The Patriots are back at home off a big come from behind win on Thanks giving day in Detroit. The Jets are also off a big home win against the Bengals on Thanks giving night. Both teams are well rested for this one here with 10 full days of preparation time.
In the first game on September 19th the Jets came away with a 28-14 win as a 3 point home dog. The Jets won the battle of the stats in that game with 336 yards to 291 for New England. NYJ managed to hold the Patriots to just 52 yards rushing. On the season the Jets are averaging 360 yards on offense with 148 coming on the ground and 212 yards through the air. The Patriots are averaging 349 yards on offense, with 112 yards per game coming form their rushing attack and 236 yards per game coming from the arm of Tom Brady.
On Defense the Patriots have been susceptible this season allowing 399 yards per game. Of particular concern is their pass coverage as opposing teams have averaged 288 pass yards per game. Patriots run defense has been better but still allows 110 yards per game on the ground. The Jets have a decided edge on defense allowing 103 yards less per game than New England. The Jets run defense has allowed 86 yards per game, while their pass coverage has been superb allowing 210 yards per game. So as we can see the Jets have edges on both sides of the ball.
On Monday nights the Patriots have won three of their last four, while the Jets have dropped three of their last four. For some team specific Angles we note that the Patriots are 5-0 at home this year, and 7-1 in the month of December the past few seasons. They have out scored opposing teams by a 31-24 score here at home while averaging 384 yards on offense. The Jets are 10-5 straight up as an underdog the past few seasons including 4-0 as a road dog of 3.5 or less. They are an amazing 5-0 on the road this season winning by an average 28-17 score, and accumulating 400 yards per game on offense. In Divisional play long term the Jets are 14-2 against the point spread if they are .500 or better as a road dog and a perfect 9-0 if they are coming off a win. Coach Rex Ryan is 6-1 ats in his short coaching career as an underdog vs an AFC team if his teams record is .500 or better. The Patriots have some equally impressive angles on their side tonight. They are 9-1 ats as a home favorite of 3 or more vs a team with a win percentage of .600 or better and 11-1 ats long term in divisional play if they have revenge and their opponent is off back to back wins. Expect the winner of this game to win the AFC East this season. For free pick in this game we will back the UNDER in this game.. NFL is currently 37-20 on the season and NBA is 26-11. I do have one NBA Play out of a 100% Blowout system also on the card. For the Bonus Play go under the total tonight. BOL GC
On Monday night its Mayhem for sure. The Jets and Patriots may be an East Coast match up. However this game that pits to of the Best teams in the AFC will draw Plenty of attention nation wide. Both teams come in with stellar 9-2 records and both appear headed to another playoff appearance.
The Patriots are back at home off a big come from behind win on Thanks giving day in Detroit. The Jets are also off a big home win against the Bengals on Thanks giving night. Both teams are well rested for this one here with 10 full days of preparation time.
In the first game on September 19th the Jets came away with a 28-14 win as a 3 point home dog. The Jets won the battle of the stats in that game with 336 yards to 291 for New England. NYJ managed to hold the Patriots to just 52 yards rushing. On the season the Jets are averaging 360 yards on offense with 148 coming on the ground and 212 yards through the air. The Patriots are averaging 349 yards on offense, with 112 yards per game coming form their rushing attack and 236 yards per game coming from the arm of Tom Brady.
On Defense the Patriots have been susceptible this season allowing 399 yards per game. Of particular concern is their pass coverage as opposing teams have averaged 288 pass yards per game. Patriots run defense has been better but still allows 110 yards per game on the ground. The Jets have a decided edge on defense allowing 103 yards less per game than New England. The Jets run defense has allowed 86 yards per game, while their pass coverage has been superb allowing 210 yards per game. So as we can see the Jets have edges on both sides of the ball.
On Monday nights the Patriots have won three of their last four, while the Jets have dropped three of their last four. For some team specific Angles we note that the Patriots are 5-0 at home this year, and 7-1 in the month of December the past few seasons. They have out scored opposing teams by a 31-24 score here at home while averaging 384 yards on offense. The Jets are 10-5 straight up as an underdog the past few seasons including 4-0 as a road dog of 3.5 or less. They are an amazing 5-0 on the road this season winning by an average 28-17 score, and accumulating 400 yards per game on offense. In Divisional play long term the Jets are 14-2 against the point spread if they are .500 or better as a road dog and a perfect 9-0 if they are coming off a win. Coach Rex Ryan is 6-1 ats in his short coaching career as an underdog vs an AFC team if his teams record is .500 or better. The Patriots have some equally impressive angles on their side tonight. They are 9-1 ats as a home favorite of 3 or more vs a team with a win percentage of .600 or better and 11-1 ats long term in divisional play if they have revenge and their opponent is off back to back wins. Expect the winner of this game to win the AFC East this season. For free pick in this game we will back the UNDER in this game.. NFL is currently 37-20 on the season and NBA is 26-11. I do have one NBA Play out of a 100% Blowout system also on the card. For the Bonus Play go under the total tonight. BOL GC
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/6
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
______________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL *****
__________________________________________________ ____
When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
__________________________________________________ ______
*** FLYING HIGH! ***
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After a thrilling Sunday night affair, the NFL's best has yet to come in Week 13 as the 9-2 NY Jets meet the 9-2 Patriots Monday night in a game that could likely decide home field advantage in the AFC. Tom Brady does not lose regular season home games, so it should be no surprise that the oddsmakers have New England favored by three and half points as they look for revenge for a 28-14 Week 2 loss in the Meadowlands.
Some thing will have to give here as the Flyboys are a perfect 11-0 away vs. division opponent’s following a SU/ATS win, and 7-0 against the spread as a road underdog of seven points or less. Meanwhile, New England is a perfect 5-0 at home, and Bill Belichick checks in 14-2 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite off a double-digit non division ATS win versus a divisional foe.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window on Monday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
______________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL *****
__________________________________________________ ____
When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
__________________________________________________ ______
*** FLYING HIGH! ***
-------------------------------
After a thrilling Sunday night affair, the NFL's best has yet to come in Week 13 as the 9-2 NY Jets meet the 9-2 Patriots Monday night in a game that could likely decide home field advantage in the AFC. Tom Brady does not lose regular season home games, so it should be no surprise that the oddsmakers have New England favored by three and half points as they look for revenge for a 28-14 Week 2 loss in the Meadowlands.
Some thing will have to give here as the Flyboys are a perfect 11-0 away vs. division opponent’s following a SU/ATS win, and 7-0 against the spread as a road underdog of seven points or less. Meanwhile, New England is a perfect 5-0 at home, and Bill Belichick checks in 14-2 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite off a double-digit non division ATS win versus a divisional foe.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window on Monday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
WUNDERDOG
Game: New York Jets at New England (Monday 12/06 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We*had some meaningful games this week, but none bigger than this as ESPN follows one of their worst MNF matchups (Arizona-San Francisco last week) with one of the best possible matchups. The 9-2 New England Patriots host the 9-2 New York Jets in what should be a playoff atmosphere type game, played with playoff intensity. When these teams met in week two, the Jets whooped up on New England by 14 points. It was a huge win for New York who had lost their opener to Baltimore. If you recall, the talk was about how huge a disappointment the Jets were after their bad performance vs. the Ravens. In that game, they*managed just 176 total yards,*scoring only 9 points. The statement win against the Pats got them back on track. With the playoffs right around the corner and these teams locked for the AFC East lead, this game is huge for both clubs. My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick)*predicts a close Patriots win. The public likes the Patriots to exact revenge and get a win and cover.*I think the Pats should win this game but I think the best value lies on the UNDER. In addition to the playoff intensity (which often leads to lower-scoring games), this game has an added element that should favor the UNDER -*the weather. The game will be played with temperatures in the 20s, but more importantly, the wind is likely to be a big factor. The wind will be out of the west, which is across the field from left to right at around 20 MPH, with higher gusts. It certainly will impact the kicking game, and should make it difficult to complete long passes. The Patriots have an equalizer with a windy and cold home stadium in December games. The Pats defense in December home games the last five years has allowed just 85 points in 10 December home games. That's a ridiculous*8.5 ppg. The Jets were participants in two of those*ten games, scoring 13 total points. It's no surprise that the UNDER in the Pats December home games is 9-1. In late-season games vs. great teams (.750 or better), Bill Belichick's Patriots teams are a perfect 8-0 UNDER. Overall vs. stellar offensive teams (those scoring 24+ per game), the Pats are 30-18 UNDER in the Belichick era. This Jets team is predicated on defense, and they have started to create their own December defensive legacy, going 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 December games. In their last 35 games vs. superb offenses (teams scoring 27+ points per game), New York is 24-11 to the UNDER. Everything points to an UNDER here and that's what I'm playing
Game: New York Jets at New England (Monday 12/06 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
We*had some meaningful games this week, but none bigger than this as ESPN follows one of their worst MNF matchups (Arizona-San Francisco last week) with one of the best possible matchups. The 9-2 New England Patriots host the 9-2 New York Jets in what should be a playoff atmosphere type game, played with playoff intensity. When these teams met in week two, the Jets whooped up on New England by 14 points. It was a huge win for New York who had lost their opener to Baltimore. If you recall, the talk was about how huge a disappointment the Jets were after their bad performance vs. the Ravens. In that game, they*managed just 176 total yards,*scoring only 9 points. The statement win against the Pats got them back on track. With the playoffs right around the corner and these teams locked for the AFC East lead, this game is huge for both clubs. My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick)*predicts a close Patriots win. The public likes the Patriots to exact revenge and get a win and cover.*I think the Pats should win this game but I think the best value lies on the UNDER. In addition to the playoff intensity (which often leads to lower-scoring games), this game has an added element that should favor the UNDER -*the weather. The game will be played with temperatures in the 20s, but more importantly, the wind is likely to be a big factor. The wind will be out of the west, which is across the field from left to right at around 20 MPH, with higher gusts. It certainly will impact the kicking game, and should make it difficult to complete long passes. The Patriots have an equalizer with a windy and cold home stadium in December games. The Pats defense in December home games the last five years has allowed just 85 points in 10 December home games. That's a ridiculous*8.5 ppg. The Jets were participants in two of those*ten games, scoring 13 total points. It's no surprise that the UNDER in the Pats December home games is 9-1. In late-season games vs. great teams (.750 or better), Bill Belichick's Patriots teams are a perfect 8-0 UNDER. Overall vs. stellar offensive teams (those scoring 24+ per game), the Pats are 30-18 UNDER in the Belichick era. This Jets team is predicated on defense, and they have started to create their own December defensive legacy, going 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 December games. In their last 35 games vs. superb offenses (teams scoring 27+ points per game), New York is 24-11 to the UNDER. Everything points to an UNDER here and that's what I'm playing
JustinCover
5unit**Southeast Missouri State Indians+24
5unit**Washington Huskies under 155
10unit**Oklahoma City Thunder+5
10unit**La Clipper-4
10unit**Toronto over 208
10unit**parlay
Orlando-3.5 first half
miami-3 first half
la clipper-2 first half
20unit**New England-4
70unit** New England over 45
5unit**Southeast Missouri State Indians+24
5unit**Washington Huskies under 155
10unit**Oklahoma City Thunder+5
10unit**La Clipper-4
10unit**Toronto over 208
10unit**parlay
Orlando-3.5 first half
miami-3 first half
la clipper-2 first half
20unit**New England-4
70unit** New England over 45
