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WUNDERDOG-NHL
Game: Montreal at Atlanta (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Montreal +120 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.8)
In many ways the road has not been friendly to the Canadiens, but they hope to build off a 3-0 shutout win over the Islanders. The Thrashers are breaking down defensively, allowing 31 goals in their last eight games, or right about at 4 per contest. History has shown that when the Thrashers cough up 5 or more in their last game, they throw up a lemon in their next contest, going just 22-47 in their last 69 after serving a 5-spot or more. The Canadiens have cashed this situation well as they have posted six wins in their last seven when facing a team that allowed 5+ their last time on the ice. I'll go with Montreal here.
Game: Montreal at Atlanta (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Montreal +1.5 goals -250 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 2)
The Canadiens have roared loud vs. a team allowing five or more goals in their last game as they have taken six of the last seven facing that situation. By the same token, the Thrashers have not been so productive following a five goal or more onslaught by an opponent as they have followed by producing a not so healthy 22-47 in the game following. Getting the plus side of the puckline just sweetens the pot, so I'll go with Montreal on the puckline.
Game: Florida at Philadelphia (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
The Florida Panthers have been a break-even hockey team this season. It doesn’t matter whether it’s home or away as the results have been the same. There is evidence that is changing fast as the Panthers, after a robust start on the road, have come out on the right side just twice in their last eight road games. They have also now been horrible as an underdog, going just 2-8 in their last 10 as a dog, and 19-39 in their last 58 when playing their third game in four days. The Flyers have struggled lately themselves, but will be in a favorable situation at home vs. the Panthers. The home team has claimed the win in four of the last five between these clubs. I'm going with Philly in this one.
Game: Buffalo at Toronto (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 6 -130 (risk 5 to win 3.9)
After going 125 games without recording a shutout, the Toronto Maple Leafs have suddenly recorded two in their last 11 games. Is there something in the water in Toronto? They also ended a 54-game streak without getting shutout in their last November game. The Sabres have been shutout in three of their last 14, and have completed two shutouts of their own, so getting very ominous numbers here to a high total bodes well for the UNDER. Off a game scoring two or less, Buffalo has played 20-9-1 to the UNDER in their next time out. The UNDER has prevailed in seven of the last nine between these clubs as well as four straight UNDER in Toronto. I'll back the UNDER here.
Game: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -115 (risk 3 to win 2.6)
The New York Islanders made a run, but have fallen off sharply and the unproductive offense was shutout in their last game. That mark now sets at 13 goals in their last eight games and the Islanders are scoring just 1.6 times a game. The Lightning has been punchless on the offensive end themselves as they have been shutout in four of their last 11 games! That keeps their recent 11-game stretch of offense under two as well. The last game explosion of six goals isn't a sign they are coming out, as after 5+ they have played 13-2-1 to the UNDER in the game following the explosion. The Islanders are now 34-14-4 to the UNDER in their last 52 as home chalk. I don't see this one topping the total, so I’m going UNDER here.
Game: New Jersey at Pittsburgh (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130 (risk 3 to win 2.3)
The Panthers have it rolling and that means one thing. They are getting strong play behind the net and the proof is in the 27 goals allowed in the last 14 games - fewer than two per contest. That translates to 11 UNDERs and just three OVERs during their last 14 games. The Devils have been even better, allowing two or less in 22 of their last 28 games. Goals should be at a premium in this one especially with Pittsburgh playing 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. teams at .600 or better. That is matched by the Devils 31-14-6 mark to the UNDER on the road vs. a home team at .600 or better. Last five in Pittsburgh has also produced four UNDERs, so the only way to go here is UNDER the total.
Game: Colorado at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -140 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.9)
The Avalanche were a disaster a year ago then surprised everyone early with their elevated level of play. That has maintained itself at home, but taking to the road they have fallen off sharply and have been on the right side of just four of the last 12. The Wild has reversed their fate. They started horribly with just three of their first 12 ending favorably, but have rebounded nicely to show nine of their last 12 in the win column. The Avalanche are showing a precursor to their fate as they are a lowly 12-30 after scoring two or less in their last game. The Wild are now 38-18 in their last 56 as home chalk, and the Avalanche have failed to find the win column in their last four in Minnesota. I'll go with Minnesota here.
Game: San Jose at Dallas (8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Jose -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
San Jose gets a lot of ink on how tough they are to take down at home, but this season those results are translating favorably on the road. Through 18 roadies, the Sharks man an 11-6-1 mark, so they are playing excellent on foreign ice as well. The Stars are getting extended at home with just eight wins in 16 tries. They have been woefully inconsistent at just 12-39 in their last 51 following a win. The Sharks’ improved road play shows them at 7-2 as road chalk and four of the last five in Dallas have gone their way. I'll play them here to make it five of six.
Game: Columbus at Phoenix (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Columbus +130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.2)
The Coyotes have been struggling to find the net of late as they managed to hang a 6-spot at defenseless Toronto, but in their six games surrounding that one, they have failed to tally more than 2 in any of them. The Blue Jackets come in riding a six game winless string and will hope to get healthy in this one. The Coyotes may accommodate them as they are 3-8 the last 11 times they squared off with an opponent off of scoring 2 goals or less. The road team has had their way in this series scoring the win in five of the last six. I'll go with Columbus in this one.
Game: Columbus at Phoenix (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Columbus +1.5 goals -270 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 1.9)
This has been a road-dominated series. The Coyotes managing to top the 2-goal mark only at defenseless Toronto in their last seven, you have to love the value on the plus side of the puckline here. The Coyotes have trouble scoring, and it has been more pronounced of late, and own just five games this season being able to top the -1.5 puckline at home. I'll go with Columbus here on the