SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON +1.21 over NY Giants
Depending on where you shop, you can likely find a couple of +3’s out there and you couldn’t be faulted for taking three points as oppose to taking the Skins straight up. Having said that, I’ll play the Skins straight up and here’s why. The Giants have two wins in its last eight games and both of them were in New York. Its last road win came on October 4, when they beat the Chiefs. Not only do they have two wins in its last eight but both wins were rather fortunate and if not for that good fortune (an OT win over Atlanta and a win over Dallas) they’d be on an eight-game losing streak. The Giants defense continues to get ripped apart and a close look reveals that the opposition has put up recent scores of 38, 24, 26, 31, 40 and 48 against them. That’s 259 points, or an average of 32.4 points per game over its last eight. The Redskins, too, have just two wins in its last eight and they’re 4-9 overall and will miss the playoffs again. However, they’ve been coming on for weeks and with just a tinge of good fortune they’d be on a five game winning streak. Five weeks ago Washington beat Denver 27-17 and walloped the resurgent Raiders last week but it’s what in between those two wins that’s most interesting. The Redskins played in succession, Dallas, Philly and New Orleans and were in a strong position to win them all, as they had a lead with less than two minutes to go in all of them. Of course an argument could be made that bad teams find a way to lose and that’s true to some extent. However, those are signs of a team coming on and playing some great football. The Skins are at home, its defense is playing great and they’re sure not talking a step up in class when facing this current grease-fire. Play: Washington +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.23 over MINNESOTA
The Av’s are expected to fall but they haven’t yet and there are no signs that they will. They just keep playing well and winning a high percentage of its games. In fact, not only do they have a solid record but the Av’s have played the second most difficult schedule in the league according to the Sagerin NHL ratings. Against teams that are 16th or worse in the standing, the Av’s own a tremendous record and the Wild qualify. The Av’s continue to allow its opponents to a very limited amount of shots on net and when they do allow shots, Craig Anderson has answered with a great season thus far. Colorado has won three of four. They may also be a little extra juiced up here because the Wild has been its biggest nemesis, having lost five straight to them and seven of its last eight and that includes all four games this season. The Wild are playing decent hockey too but that fire that ruined its equipment seemed to have a rather negative effect on them, as players need new equipment, which means breaking it in and that’s a psychological disadvantage. Anyway, the Av’s really want this one, as they’re sick of losing to this host and they’ll be extra focused to get this proverbial monkey off its back. Play: Colorado +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON -½ +1.15 over St. Louis
The Blue Notes have problems and it starts with its offense, which ranks dead last in the NHL in goals scored. They played in Vancouver last night and escaped with a solid 3-1 win but the absolutely did not outplay the Canucks. The Blues are tough to beat when they get a lead but when they fall behind its chances of coming back is slim. This is also the third game in four days for the Blues. Meanwhile, the Oilers have dropped three in a row, all at home, after that unlikely five-game road-winning streak. They need this one badly and they should be completely fired up and ready to go. The Oilers had a 2-0 third period lead on Washington on Saturday before allowing four goals and while a loss is a loss, you can just see that they’re on the verge of a big game. The Oilers are so quick and so talented and they catch the Blue Notes at precisely the right time. Play: Edmonton -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.22 over Montreal
What’s so interesting about this game is the total, which is posted at 6, meaning the books expect some goals. Montreal games rarely feature a total of 6 and in fact, they’re usually 5 or 5½ with big juice on the under. With that being the case, we all know that the Habs are tooth and nails to score a single goal, meaning the goals have to come from somewhere. We also know that Jaroslav Halak is net and he’s more likely to give some up than Carey Price. So, in reading “between the lines” it suggests that there will be some goals scored in this one and you simply have to trust the Thrashers to account for most of them. Besides that, the Canadiens have one win in its last six and that came Saturday night against the Islanders in which they were outshot 40-28. The Habs continue to get outplayed badly on a nightly basis and that is very unlikely to change here. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Montana St. –1.02 OVER Cal State Poly
Bettors will be scared by Montana State’s winless road record but in this game talent alone should triumph. Montana State returned four starters from a team that was two points away from a tournament appearance and have played decent basketball thus far. Montana State won’t blow anyone away offensively but they do shoot 38% from three and 49% from two. Cal Poly started the year 0-5 with some really bad losses to San Francisco and Little Rock but won three in a row in December to pull to 3-6 on the year. Cal Poly is a brutal defensive team that allows opponents to shoot 40.5% from three and 53.2% from two. Those statistics against pit them near the bottom of all Division I teams and it’s a major red flag for their backers. Montana State needs to beat teams like this and the road excuse needs to stop. They are simply the better team. Play: #751 Montana St. –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
MONTANA/Fresno St. under 124½
The most important statistic to look at when making any total play in basketball is pace. Pace refers to how many possessions a team uses in a 40 minute game and to make bets without knowing that stat is simply foolish. Montana plays at the 13th slowest pace in all of College Basketball while Fresno plays at the national average. This means that both these teams will have to shoot remarkably well for this game to have any chance at the over and the chances of that aren’t great. Montana and Fresno both play great defense that holds opponents to 91.5 points and 92.5 points per 100 possessions, numbers that place them in the top 64. If you want even simpler statistics, Fresno State’s opponents shoot 39.7% against them while Montana’s shoot 42.5%. I can’t find a single reason recommending an over play and the only explanation is that the public is unaware of pace factor. I don’t even look at points per game and neither should you, as it’s akin to equating wins to a pitchers performance and we all know that those days are behind us. This is one of the more beatable totals posted thus far and you should definitely take advantage. Play: #748 Montana/Fresno St. under 124½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
La Salle +9½ over OKLAHOMA ST.
When you think Oklahoma St vs La Salle most also think blowout. The point is when you wager on a well-known school vs a much less recognizable one you’re almost always going to pay a premium for that wager and that’s certainly the case here. The Cowboys reside in the Big-12, one of, if not the toughest conference in the land. The Explorers play in the Atlantic-10, which is a decent conference but nowhere near the quality of the Big-12. The problem with the Cowboys is its brutal schedule thus far that has seen them play cupcake after cupcake and what that means is they’re not even close to being battle-tested yet. The Cowboys are 9-1 but its wins came in order against Seattle, Southern University, North Texas, Prairie View A&M, Bradley, Utah, Texas-San Antonio, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Stanford. The two most recognizable programs on that schedule are Stanford and Utah, both which are near the bottom of its respective conferences, are a combined 10-11 and the Utes are in last place. Incidentally, Oklahoma St. beat Stanford by a single point. The Cowboys did play the 9-1 Tulsa Golden Hurricane and were smoked by 19 points in its only loss of the year. So, while its 9-1 record looks great on paper, the fact is the Cowboys numbers are completely skewed because of its lousy schedule and now they’ll face a decent and battle tested La Salle squad. The Explorers come in 7-3 but have played two, top five teams in #1 Kansas and #4 Villanova. It’s other loss came against a very decent South Carolina team. They lost by double-digits to all three of those teams but those are good losses that help prepare a team for future games against quality opponents and the Cowboys really don’t qualify as such. Oklahoma St. virtually has no bench and just one senior to go along with a slew of freshman. Meanwhile, four of the Explorers top five scorers are seniors. They have as many as six players that are capable of putting up double-digits. They have experience and they absolutely will not be intimidated in this setting. The Cowboys have shown nothing to warrant this price and may even lose this one outright. Play: #721 La Salle +9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).