Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
30 Dime --- Ravens-Packers OVER
Forget the side (though I favor the Packers) folks, the best play on the board tonight is the total... and I like it over. Public perception is that we have two of the best defenses in the league facing off on cold night at Lambeau, and 43 points is simply too high. I disagree. I think we have two very dynamic offenses who have "big play" potential every time they are on offense, and it won't matter how good the opposing defense seems to be.
Yes, I agree, defense wins championships, but this isn't a championship game. And if you paid any attention to Monday night games this year, you've seen a ton of high scoring affairs. Aside from a few games here and there, Monday night scores have averaged in the neighborhood of 47 points per game... which puts us over the total by at least a field goal tonight.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jermichael Finley and a few others at coach McCarthy's disposal... and those guys have averaged 27 PPG over their last three and 27 PPG for the season, so it's not like they've just recently started scoring points. They can score at any spot on the field, they can score with their defense and they clearly know how to change turnovers into points, whether the defense scores themselves or sets the offense up in good field position.
Baltimore can score in bunches as well, and since they've been kinda quietly offensively lately, you gotta believe the general public is thinking UNDER all the way. But a look at this offense from earlier in the season sees a team that scored 30 or more points in five of their first seven games, including games with San Diego, Minnesota and Denver.
The OVER is 8-2 in Baltimore's last 10 Monday games and 8-2 in their last 10 as a dog. In Green Bay's last 19 home games, the OVER has hit 13 times and it's hit 18 of the last 25 Packers' games when they are listed as the favorite. Sure, there's a small chance the defenses will come to play, but I believe both teams are desperate for a win and will try to light a fire under the offenses' butts on each and every possession. This one could be OVER the number by halftime, so you can understand why I like the over in tonight's contest. Final score is somewhere around 27-24, which puts us easily over the total tonight.