Nflchoice nfl picks 11/30
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6%)
LINE NOTE: Make sure you sop for best value as once again were seeing a varied line from +1.5 to +3. We suggest waiting until closer to game-time as the world is on the Saints tonight so you will see the increase for us by game-time. Also, if you get +2.5, why not buy the 1/2 point insurance to get a field goal? Never get beat by the hook.
Wow, what a turnaround for Prime Time games lately as were finally getting some good games to watch for once this season. The Saints and Patriots will give us a quality show no doubt on Monday night.
So here we go, another Monday Night play locked and loaded. Last week we gave you our MNF Investment of the Season with our *12* Titans in a situation we just couldn't pass up. This week, is more of a puzzling one. How can you go wrong with either team in this matchup? Drew Brees at the Super Dome laying just a field goal or less? On the flip side, how can you go wrong with Tom Brady and evil genius Bill Belichick getting points? Either way you look at it, whichever team you back tonight certainly has merit.
That being said, when you have two teams of this caliber going head to head, you have to take the team that is playing better defense. A lot of bettors may not know that the Patriots have allowed the second least amount of points in the NFL. And New England has played a MUCH MUCH tougher AFC loaded schedule than the Saints. The Saints last 3 games were against bottom feeders in the NFC in Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Carolina. These teams are just not good, period.
What the big name touts won't talk about today is the fact that the Saints barely squeaked by their competition recently up until last week's game against Tampa Bay, one the worst teams in the NFC. In fact, the last 4 games before Tampa could have easily been losses. We first noticed the wheels starting to come off the bus when New Orleans trailed Miami 24-20 at half-time and needed a miracle second half come-back to win. In fact, we won't give them too much credit because Miami just laid down in the second half and got lazy on defense. Not to mention, the Saints needed 4 turnovers and a pick 6 to get back in the game. A week later they barely held off Atlanta in a close MNF game where they were favored by double digits. Then they were down 11 points at the half against Carolina before rallying for another miracle comeback win. One week later they needed another miracle just to beat Saint Louis in the closing minutes. If the Patriots go up by more than 10 points in this one, do you think Belichick will blow another lead like he did against the Colts a few weeks ago? We think not.
Look, we have said it time and time again. Staying undefeated in the NFL is like having a target on your back every week. Do you think a team like New England is not pumped up about the possibility of knocking off an over-hyped Saints undefeated squad? Do you think Bill Belichick is not foaming at the mouth for a chance to redeem himself and his team from the debacle against the Colts? We believe this certainly qualifies as a revenge game as the Pats and are very likely to take it all out on the Saints tonight. We have seen it time and time again from Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Furthermore, we have strongly upheld the fact that the AFC has been the dominate force in the NFL in recent years, and any time your getting points with the AFC side in an inter-conference battle like this one, you can't go wrong. That being said, the Patriots are of the AFC elite and are a whopping 25-2 SU in its last 27 games against NFC opposition. That record speaks volumes about the strength of schedule disparity before you tonight.
Hands down, you can't go wrong backing Tom Brady on Monday Night. The Patriots are a perfect 5-0 SU playing on Monday Night while the Saints are 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in their last 5 appearances. We certainly believe this will be close and getting the points is the only play for this game. Put your money in the right place and take the Patriots plus the points.
