THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30
NFL
New England (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS) at New Orleans (10-0, 7-3 ATS)
The top two offenses in the league will square off inside the Superdome when the Patriots visit New Orleans looking to upend the unbeaten Saints.
New England improved to 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games with last week’s 31-14 rout of the Jets, covering as a 10½-point home favorite. The Patriots have scored 27 points or more in their last five games and are averaging 37.2 ppg during this stretch. For the season, New England is putting up 29 points and 416.1 yards per game, which ranks third and second, respectively, in the league. Behind QB Tom Brady (3,049 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs), the Pats also field the league’s second-best passing attack (302.3 ypg).
New Orleans clobbered the Bucs last weekend, winning 38-7 and covering as a 10½-point road favorite, snapping a three-game ATS skid. The Saints, off to the best start in franchise history, have scored at least 24 points in every game this season, tallying 30 or more seven times. QB Drew Brees (2,746 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs) paces an explosive attack that leads the NFL in scoring offense (36.9 ppg) and total offense (420.5 ypg), and New Orleans also rates fifth in rushing offense (154.3 ypg).
These teams haven’t squared off since 2005 when the Patriots got a 24-17 home win, but came up short as 8½-point favorites. Going back to 1986, the Saints are 6-1 ATS against New England.
The Patriots are on ATS slides of 5-11 after a spread-cover and 4-9-1 in Week 12 games, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 38-17-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf.
New England quarterback Tom Brady is 23-12 SU and 23-10-1 ATS as an underdog, while Bill Belichick is 16-8 SU and ATS versus undefeated foes (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS this season).
New Orleans is on a plethora of ATS hot streaks, including 12-4-1 overall, 7-3 at home, 12-3 as a favorite, 5-0 in Week 12 and 5-1 after a spread-cover.
In terms of Monday night trends, the underdog has covered five of the last seven games with Tennessee winning outright as a road pup at Houston a week ago. That continued a streak of four consecutive covers for the road team – and five in six weeks – under the Monday lights.
New England is 8-13 SU on the Monday night road (10-11 ATS), while New Orleans is 3-8 both SU and ATS at the Superdome playing on Mondays.
New England has stayed below the posted total in four of five on the road and 10 of 14 Week 12 games, but the over for the Patriots is on streaks of 12-5 as an underdog, 4-1-1 in November contests and 8-2-1 on artificial turf.
For the Saints, the over is on upticks of 21-9-1 overall, 14-3-1 at home, 18-8-1 as a favorite, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Monday and 47-21-2 against teams with a winning record.
Finally, the “over” is 19-8-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-4 this year). However, the last three Monday night affairs have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Chicago (6-8, 4-10 ATS) at Milwaukee (8-7, 9-6 ATS)
The Bulls wrap up a six-game road trip that began back on Nov. 17 when they travel to the Bradley Center to battle the Bucks.
After beating Sacramento 110-87 to begin this journey, Chicago has dropped the last four games (SU and ATS) and hasn’t hit triple digits since that opening win against the Kings. Most recently, the Bulls lost 105-86 in Utah as seven-point underdogs on Thursday. They are averaging 91 points a game this season and shooting just 43.3 percent from the field, and on defense they have allowed 106.8 points a game and 50.7 percent shooting during this road trip.
Milwaukee started out 8-3 but has now lost four in a row (1-3 ATS), including Saturday’s tough 100-98 loss to Orlando, but they cashed as a seven-point home underdog. The Bucks have only reached triple digits once in the last seven games after scoring 102 or more for four straight contests.
These teams met back on Nov. 3 in Chicago with the Bulls pulling out an 83-81 victory but falling well short as 8½-point favorites. Chicago has won seven of the last eight meetings (4-4 ATS) and two of the last three in Milwaukee (SU and ATS). The favorite has a 5-1 ATS edge in the last six series clashes.
The Bulls are on ATS runs of 8-3 against Central Division teams and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after getting three or more days off, however they are on pointspread slides of 1-8 against the Eastern Conference, 0-4 on this road trip, 0-5 as a road ‘dog, 1-9-1 after a straight-up loss and 1-4 after a non-cover. Milwaukee is on ATS upticks of 6-0 against the Eastern Conference, 8-2 at home, 6-2 as a favorite and 9-4 as a home chalk of less than five points.
Chicago is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 9-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 as an underdog and 4-0 against Central Division teams. The Bucks have stayed below the total in six of nine against Eastern Conference teams, but they are on “over” streaks of 6-0 overall, 4-0 after getting a day off, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 after a straight-up loss. Finally, the “over” is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
