Statsystems nba report 11/29
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/29
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Thunder won six of its last eight games.
-- Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread).
-- Utah won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread).
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Miami lost four of last five games, covered one of last 12. Wizards lost three of last four games, are 2-5 as home underdogs.
-- New Orleans lost three of its last four games.
-- Rockets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost five of last six games, are 0-7 vs spread in last seven.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Hornets are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Rockets are 1-2 if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Miami's last three home games stayed under the total. Washington's last four games all went over.
-- Four of last five New Orleans games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games stayed under the total.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--WASHINGTON @ MIAMI, 7:30 PM ET WASHINGTON: 13-1 Under off home division loss. MIAMI: 1-6 ATS off ATS loss.
--NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:00 PM ET NEW ORLEANS: 1-6 ATS off double digit division loss. OKLAHOMA CITY: 8-0 Over off ATS loss.
--HOUSTON @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET NBA HOUSTON: 90-48 ATS Away after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. DALLAS: 13-34 ATS as home favorite.
--MILWAUKEE @ UTAH, 9:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 0-7 ATS vs. Western Conference. UTAH: 6-0 ATS vs. Eastern Conference.
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*** WASHINGTON @ MIAMI (-11.5, O/U 197.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------------
As LeBron James begins what will no doubt be a tense week, the Miami Heat are trying everything they can to end their struggles. After holding a players-only meeting following their latest loss, the Heat host the Washington Wizards on Monday night. While James will make his return to Cleveland on Thursday night, the Heat have two more games to play in Miami before that matchup, with Detroit visiting Wednesday after Washington leaves town.
The Heat lost for the fourth time in five games Saturday, 106-95 at Dallas - their second defeat by double digits during this stretch. That prompted a meeting of Miami’s players. “It was a well-needed team meeting where everybody had a chance to get off whatever they had on their chest or in their head about us figuring things out,” James said. “Right now we are a 9-8 team and we have to own up to that. Does our record speak of the quality of team we can become? I don’t think so. But right now we’re 9-8 and we’re playing like that.”
James had 23 points and eight rebounds while Dwyane Wade had 22 points, nine boards and five assists. James, however, went 5 of 19 from the field and combined with Wade to commit 12 of Miami’s 14 turnovers. The Heat have been held to fewer than 100 points in six straight games and were outrebounded in last five. They shot 41.3 percent Saturday and were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter after missing their first 10 shots after halftime. “It’s tough because I know the potential of this team, the vision I had when this team was put together,” Wade said.
A visit from the Wizards, who are winless on the road, might help them get the week off to a good start. Washington is looking to avoid losing a season-high third straight. The Wizards fell 100-99 to Orlando on Saturday night, with Gilbert Arenas’ shot at the buzzer hitting the back of the rim. Arenas finished with a season-high 31 points and scored his team’s final nine points over the last four minutes, but was 9 of 23 from the floor. He is shooting 39.1 percent on the season.
John Wall missed the game with a bruised right knee. The rookie had totaled 35 points in his last two games after sitting out four with a sprained left foot. Wall, averaging 18.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, is questionable for Monday. Yi Jianlian will miss his eighth straight game and fellow forward Al Thornton is likely to sit out his third in a row. The Wizards play their next two and five of six on the road. They are winless in seven away games this season, giving up 110.1 points while scoring 93.4.
“We felt we played hard enough for the win (Saturday) so we have to take the momentum on the road and play against the Heat,” Arenas said. Miami has won seven of the last eight meetings with Washington. However, the Wizards won in their most recent visit to Miami, 94-84 on Nov. 27, 2009.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 12; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -13.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -14.39
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 98.9, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was MIAMI 101.6, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 64-40 ATS (+19.9 Units) after a close loss by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 97.8, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 27-8 UNDER (+18.1 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 93.6, OPPONENT 99.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 30-13 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.2, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) off a home loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.4, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 9-24 against the 1rst half line (-17.4 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 48.3, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 15-29 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 49.4, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 57-29 UNDER (+25.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 45.5, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 42-21 UNDER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.7, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51, Opponent 49.3 (Average first half point differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-48).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-30)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.5
The average score in these games was: Team 95.9, Opponent 103 (Average point differential = -7.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more.
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.2, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 95.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
___________________________________________
*** NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5, O/U 200) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder took advantage of Chris Paul’s absence to beat the New Orleans Hornets for the first time since relocating from Seattle. The Thunder will now have to contend with Paul when they host the Hornets for the first time this season Monday night. Paul played in each of New Orleans’ 10 consecutive wins in this series spanning nearly three calendar years, but the All-Star point guard missed a Feb. 3 matchup while preparing for arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Oklahoma City won 103-99.
With Paul still recovering from surgery, the Thunder also claimed a 98-83 home victory March 10. David West scored 33 points but no other Hornets player had more than 11. Now healthy, Paul will try to help his club prevail in a matchup of teams that have cooled off lately. The Hornets have dropped three of four since opening 11-1 for the first time in franchise history. They gave up a season high for points in Sunday’s 109-95 loss to San Antonio after previously allowing a league low 91.1 per game.
After building a 17-point halftime lead, New Orleans was outscored 65-34 over the final 24 minutes and 37-18 in the fourth quarter. “We’ve got to execute better on offense and push the tempo. That’s my fault,” Paul said. “I pushed it in the first half and I guess I didn’t in the second half and they were able to get their defense set. I’ve got to pick up the pace.”
Oklahoma City has dropped two of three - including a 99-98 loss at Houston on Sunday night - after winning a season-high five in a row. The Thunder rallied from an eight-point halftime, and were within a point with 29 seconds left, but Kevin Durant missed a short jumper just before the buzzer. “We battled back and no one on our team gave up and we had a shot to win,” coach Scott Brooks said. “Kevin’s shot was on line but just a little short. We had a chance to win down the stretch.”
The league’s scoring leader (27.4 ppg), Durant finished with 18 points after scoring no fewer than 23 in his previous 10 games. Russell Westbrook had 23 points after scoring a career-high 43 in a 110-106 overtime win at Indiana on Friday night. Durant has shined against the Hornets, averaging 32.6 points and shooting 56.7 percent the last five times he’s faced them. Paul has averaged 20.5 points and 11.6 assists in his last eight games versus the Thunder, who haven’t beaten the Hornets in Oklahoma City when he’s been in the lineup.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 2; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -1.72
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-31 ATS (+17.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 97.2, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 99.8, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.9, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 89-60 UNDER (+22.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.8, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 65-41 UNDER (+19.8 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 95.0, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 58-37 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 50.9, OPPONENT 50.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-58 against the 1rst half line (-28.8 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 48.5, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 14-30 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 49.3, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 89-58 UNDER (+25.4 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 45.8, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 60-39 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 46.4, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.4, Opponent 47.8 (Total first half points scored = 101.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(52-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (63-16 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.1
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 97.2 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (35.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (143-120).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW ORLEANS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%).
(61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +31.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195
The average score in these games was: Team 96.5, Opponent 92.5 (Total points scored = 189)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 46 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (122-84).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/29
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Thunder won six of its last eight games.
-- Dallas won its last five games (4-1 vs spread).
-- Utah won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread).
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Miami lost four of last five games, covered one of last 12. Wizards lost three of last four games, are 2-5 as home underdogs.
-- New Orleans lost three of its last four games.
-- Rockets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bucks lost five of last six games, are 0-7 vs spread in last seven.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Hornets are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Rockets are 1-2 if they played the night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Miami's last three home games stayed under the total. Washington's last four games all went over.
-- Four of last five New Orleans games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games stayed under the total.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--WASHINGTON @ MIAMI, 7:30 PM ET WASHINGTON: 13-1 Under off home division loss. MIAMI: 1-6 ATS off ATS loss.
--NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:00 PM ET NEW ORLEANS: 1-6 ATS off double digit division loss. OKLAHOMA CITY: 8-0 Over off ATS loss.
--HOUSTON @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET NBA HOUSTON: 90-48 ATS Away after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. DALLAS: 13-34 ATS as home favorite.
--MILWAUKEE @ UTAH, 9:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 0-7 ATS vs. Western Conference. UTAH: 6-0 ATS vs. Eastern Conference.
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*** WASHINGTON @ MIAMI (-11.5, O/U 197.5) ***
------------------------------------------------------------
As LeBron James begins what will no doubt be a tense week, the Miami Heat are trying everything they can to end their struggles. After holding a players-only meeting following their latest loss, the Heat host the Washington Wizards on Monday night. While James will make his return to Cleveland on Thursday night, the Heat have two more games to play in Miami before that matchup, with Detroit visiting Wednesday after Washington leaves town.
The Heat lost for the fourth time in five games Saturday, 106-95 at Dallas - their second defeat by double digits during this stretch. That prompted a meeting of Miami’s players. “It was a well-needed team meeting where everybody had a chance to get off whatever they had on their chest or in their head about us figuring things out,” James said. “Right now we are a 9-8 team and we have to own up to that. Does our record speak of the quality of team we can become? I don’t think so. But right now we’re 9-8 and we’re playing like that.”
James had 23 points and eight rebounds while Dwyane Wade had 22 points, nine boards and five assists. James, however, went 5 of 19 from the field and combined with Wade to commit 12 of Miami’s 14 turnovers. The Heat have been held to fewer than 100 points in six straight games and were outrebounded in last five. They shot 41.3 percent Saturday and were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter after missing their first 10 shots after halftime. “It’s tough because I know the potential of this team, the vision I had when this team was put together,” Wade said.
A visit from the Wizards, who are winless on the road, might help them get the week off to a good start. Washington is looking to avoid losing a season-high third straight. The Wizards fell 100-99 to Orlando on Saturday night, with Gilbert Arenas’ shot at the buzzer hitting the back of the rim. Arenas finished with a season-high 31 points and scored his team’s final nine points over the last four minutes, but was 9 of 23 from the floor. He is shooting 39.1 percent on the season.
John Wall missed the game with a bruised right knee. The rookie had totaled 35 points in his last two games after sitting out four with a sprained left foot. Wall, averaging 18.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, is questionable for Monday. Yi Jianlian will miss his eighth straight game and fellow forward Al Thornton is likely to sit out his third in a row. The Wizards play their next two and five of six on the road. They are winless in seven away games this season, giving up 110.1 points while scoring 93.4.
“We felt we played hard enough for the win (Saturday) so we have to take the momentum on the road and play against the Heat,” Arenas said. Miami has won seven of the last eight meetings with Washington. However, the Wizards won in their most recent visit to Miami, 94-84 on Nov. 27, 2009.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 12; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -13.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -14.39
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 98.9, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was MIAMI 101.6, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 64-40 ATS (+19.9 Units) after a close loss by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 97.8, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 27-8 UNDER (+18.1 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 93.6, OPPONENT 99.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 30-13 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.2, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) off a home loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.4, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 9-24 against the 1rst half line (-17.4 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 48.3, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 15-29 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 49.4, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 57-29 UNDER (+25.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 45.5, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 42-21 UNDER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.7, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51, Opponent 49.3 (Average first half point differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-48).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (6-30)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.5
The average score in these games was: Team 95.9, Opponent 103 (Average point differential = -7.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more.
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.2, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 95.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
___________________________________________
*** NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5, O/U 200) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder took advantage of Chris Paul’s absence to beat the New Orleans Hornets for the first time since relocating from Seattle. The Thunder will now have to contend with Paul when they host the Hornets for the first time this season Monday night. Paul played in each of New Orleans’ 10 consecutive wins in this series spanning nearly three calendar years, but the All-Star point guard missed a Feb. 3 matchup while preparing for arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Oklahoma City won 103-99.
With Paul still recovering from surgery, the Thunder also claimed a 98-83 home victory March 10. David West scored 33 points but no other Hornets player had more than 11. Now healthy, Paul will try to help his club prevail in a matchup of teams that have cooled off lately. The Hornets have dropped three of four since opening 11-1 for the first time in franchise history. They gave up a season high for points in Sunday’s 109-95 loss to San Antonio after previously allowing a league low 91.1 per game.
After building a 17-point halftime lead, New Orleans was outscored 65-34 over the final 24 minutes and 37-18 in the fourth quarter. “We’ve got to execute better on offense and push the tempo. That’s my fault,” Paul said. “I pushed it in the first half and I guess I didn’t in the second half and they were able to get their defense set. I’ve got to pick up the pace.”
Oklahoma City has dropped two of three - including a 99-98 loss at Houston on Sunday night - after winning a season-high five in a row. The Thunder rallied from an eight-point halftime, and were within a point with 29 seconds left, but Kevin Durant missed a short jumper just before the buzzer. “We battled back and no one on our team gave up and we had a shot to win,” coach Scott Brooks said. “Kevin’s shot was on line but just a little short. We had a chance to win down the stretch.”
The league’s scoring leader (27.4 ppg), Durant finished with 18 points after scoring no fewer than 23 in his previous 10 games. Russell Westbrook had 23 points after scoring a career-high 43 in a 110-106 overtime win at Indiana on Friday night. Durant has shined against the Hornets, averaging 32.6 points and shooting 56.7 percent the last five times he’s faced them. Paul has averaged 20.5 points and 11.6 assists in his last eight games versus the Thunder, who haven’t beaten the Hornets in Oklahoma City when he’s been in the lineup.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma City by 2; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Orleans -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New Orleans -1.72
_________________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-31 ATS (+17.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 97.2, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 99.8, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.9, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 89-60 UNDER (+22.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.8, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 65-41 UNDER (+19.8 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 95.0, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 58-37 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 50.9, OPPONENT 50.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 35-58 against the 1rst half line (-28.8 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 48.5, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 14-30 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 49.3, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW ORLEANS is 89-58 UNDER (+25.4 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 45.8, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW ORLEANS is 60-39 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 46.4, OPPONENT 50.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after a close loss by 3 points or less.
(29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.4, Opponent 47.8 (Total first half points scored = 101.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(52-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +26.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (63-16 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.1
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 97.2 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (35.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (143-120).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW ORLEANS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%).
(61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +31.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195
The average score in these games was: Team 96.5, Opponent 92.5 (Total points scored = 189)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 46 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (122-84).
STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 11/29 cont.
*** HOUSTON @ DALLAS (-9.5, O/U 197) ***
-----------------------------------------------------
An improved defense has the Dallas Mavericks riding a five-game winning streak. The Mavericks will try to add to that run by containing the in-state rival Houston Rockets on Monday night at home. Thanks largely to a defense limiting opponents to 92.7 points per game, the Mavericks have won five in a row - the latest two of those victories coming against two of the league’s highest-profile clubs.
One night after ending San Antonio’s 12-game win streak with a 103-94 victory, Dallas returned home and beat Miami 106-95 on Saturday night. “To go through and win all five like this, you have to be extremely energetic, you have to be deep, you have to have good guys and good players,” Coach Rick Carlisle said. “You have to have a high energy level and a high spirit and we sustained that this week.”
The Mavericks gave up at least 22 points to each member of the Heat’s All-Star trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh but allowed no other Miami player to reach double figures. Their defense will face another tough test Monday in the form of a Houston team averaging 104.4 points. With a win Monday, the Mavericks will have their best record through 17 games since opening 16-1 in 2002-03.
The Rockets are giving up an average of 106.7, but have held their last two opponents under the century mark. They held on for a 99-98 home victory over Oklahoma City on Sunday night. “It’s just a great win,” said Coach Rick Adelman, whose team has won two of three since a four-game slide. “It was a very good team we played. They were going to attack and keep coming at us but we did enough to win and that’s what we wanted. We wanted our guys to play hard for 48 minutes and that’s what they did.”
Adelman’s club has dropped its last three road games to fall to 2-7 away from home on the season. The Rockets will need to overcome that trend if they are to beat the Mavericks in three straight meetings for the first time since a five-game run in this series Nov. 23, 1999-Dec. 30, 2000.
These clubs haven’t faced each other since last December, when the Rockets posted a 116-108 overtime victory in Dallas and a 97-94 win at home. Aaron Brooks totaled 55 points in those matchups, but has missed Houston’s last 11 games due to an ankle injury and is unlikely to play Monday. Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki managed a total of 16 points in last December’s two meetings with the Rockets.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 8; O/U 184.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -10.68
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.5, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 1-17 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.1, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.7, OPPONENT 100.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 90-48 ATS (+37.2 Units) in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 61-39 OVER (+18.1 Units) in home games after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 105.6, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 28-11 OVER (+15.8 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 106.6, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+19.5 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 51.9, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 28-12 against the 1rst half line (+17.6 Units) in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 51.4, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 58-39 OVER (+14.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 53.0, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 36-18 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 50.1, OPPONENT 51.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams (DALLAS) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%).
(35-11 since 1996.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 9.8
The average score in these games was: Team 90.7, Opponent 96.2 (Average point differential = -5.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
--PLAY ON - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%).
(35-12 since 1996.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.7, Opponent 43.1 (Average first half point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-8).
___________________________________________
*** MILWAUKEE @ UTAH (-9, O/U 188) ***
----------------------------------------------------
The Utah Jazz are on a roll thanks to Deron Williams and strong scoring depth. A visit from the potentially short-handed Milwaukee Bucks may not provide much of an obstacle. Williams looks to help the Jazz extend their winning streak to six by continuing their home domination of the Bucks on Monday night. Utah has won 13 of 16 after opening the season with consecutive lopsided losses. The current five-game winning streak is the second of this extended hot streak.
The Jazz, who have held opponents to an average of 91.4 points during their last five victories, last won six in a row in a nine-game run Jan. 20-Feb. 9. Williams, the team leader with 21.9 points and 9.9 assists per game, has been a major spark of late. The All-Star guard is shooting 58.7 percent over the last three games while averaging 27.0 points and 10.7 assists. He connected on 8 of 14 shots Sunday, finishing with 26 points to lead six Jazz players in double figures during a 109-97 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
“Our guys have played pretty well together and our bench has given us a tremendous lift to put us in a position to be able to win a lot of those games,” Coach Jerry Sloan said. “Those guys have given us a great deal of life to fight back, and it’s been fun.” The Jazz are now looking for a strong start to their season-high six-game homestand, and facing Milwaukee (6-10) might be an ideal way to accomplish that. They’ve won eight straight home meetings with the Bucks, holding them to an average of 89.1 points since a loss Oct. 30, 2001.
Utah kept that winning streak going with a 112-95 victory Jan. 16, and the Bucks will likely need another big performance from Brandon Jennings to end it. Jennings helped Milwaukee overcome four key absences by scoring a season-high 32 points in a 104-101 home win over Charlotte on Saturday, halting a five-game slide. The Bucks have stumbled to a 2-6 mark on the road. Jennings wasn’t very effective in Milwaukee’s last visit to Utah. The guard made 1 of 8 shots and finished with five points. He scored 23 in a 95-87 win in Milwaukee on March 12.
The Bucks may need to rely on Jennings heavily if Andrew Bogut (back spasms), Drew Gooden (plantar fasciitis), Corey Maggette (left ankle soreness) and Carlos Delfino (neck strain and concussion) continue to be out with injuries. Playing without Bogut and Gooden again would leave Milwaukee without its top rebounders at 10.9 and 7.5 per game, respectively. That would create favorable matchups for the Jazz, who will likely start forward Paul Millsap and center Al Jefferson. The duo combined for 25 points Sunday against the Clippers.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 7; O/U 177.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -6.71
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--UTAH is 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 105.1, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 103.4, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 31-12 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.5, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 36-17 OVER (+17.8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 104.3, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 14-3 OVER (+10.6 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 105.2, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 16-2 OVER (+13.8 Units) after a game where they were called for 30 or more fouls over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 102.7, OPPONENT 106.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 11-32 against the 1rst half line (-24.3 Units) off a road win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 48.2, OPPONENT 49.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 2-14 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 45.6, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.8 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 49.0, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 54-31 UNDER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 50.5, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 62-40 UNDER (+18.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.9, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 21-7 UNDER (+13.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 45.0, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after one or more consecutive overs, a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG).
(32-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.7
The average score in these games was: Team 93.1, Opponent 99 (Total points scored = 192.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (52.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (140-90).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (UTAH) - playing on back-to-back days, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(43-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.6, Opponent 43.7 (Total first half points scored = 89.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (95-72).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
(66-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.0%, +36.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 50.7 (Average first half point differential = -1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (120-79).
*** HOUSTON @ DALLAS (-9.5, O/U 197) ***
-----------------------------------------------------
An improved defense has the Dallas Mavericks riding a five-game winning streak. The Mavericks will try to add to that run by containing the in-state rival Houston Rockets on Monday night at home. Thanks largely to a defense limiting opponents to 92.7 points per game, the Mavericks have won five in a row - the latest two of those victories coming against two of the league’s highest-profile clubs.
One night after ending San Antonio’s 12-game win streak with a 103-94 victory, Dallas returned home and beat Miami 106-95 on Saturday night. “To go through and win all five like this, you have to be extremely energetic, you have to be deep, you have to have good guys and good players,” Coach Rick Carlisle said. “You have to have a high energy level and a high spirit and we sustained that this week.”
The Mavericks gave up at least 22 points to each member of the Heat’s All-Star trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh but allowed no other Miami player to reach double figures. Their defense will face another tough test Monday in the form of a Houston team averaging 104.4 points. With a win Monday, the Mavericks will have their best record through 17 games since opening 16-1 in 2002-03.
The Rockets are giving up an average of 106.7, but have held their last two opponents under the century mark. They held on for a 99-98 home victory over Oklahoma City on Sunday night. “It’s just a great win,” said Coach Rick Adelman, whose team has won two of three since a four-game slide. “It was a very good team we played. They were going to attack and keep coming at us but we did enough to win and that’s what we wanted. We wanted our guys to play hard for 48 minutes and that’s what they did.”
Adelman’s club has dropped its last three road games to fall to 2-7 away from home on the season. The Rockets will need to overcome that trend if they are to beat the Mavericks in three straight meetings for the first time since a five-game run in this series Nov. 23, 1999-Dec. 30, 2000.
These clubs haven’t faced each other since last December, when the Rockets posted a 116-108 overtime victory in Dallas and a 97-94 win at home. Aaron Brooks totaled 55 points in those matchups, but has missed Houston’s last 11 games due to an ankle injury and is unlikely to play Monday. Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki managed a total of 16 points in last December’s two meetings with the Rockets.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 8; O/U 184.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -10.68
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.5, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 1-17 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.1, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--DALLAS is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.7, OPPONENT 100.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 90-48 ATS (+37.2 Units) in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 61-39 OVER (+18.1 Units) in home games after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 105.6, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 28-11 OVER (+15.8 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 106.6, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+19.5 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 51.9, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 28-12 against the 1rst half line (+17.6 Units) in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 51.4, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 58-39 OVER (+14.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 53.0, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 36-18 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 50.1, OPPONENT 51.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams (DALLAS) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%).
(35-11 since 1996.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 9.8
The average score in these games was: Team 90.7, Opponent 96.2 (Average point differential = -5.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
--PLAY ON - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%).
(35-12 since 1996.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.7, Opponent 43.1 (Average first half point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-8).
___________________________________________
*** MILWAUKEE @ UTAH (-9, O/U 188) ***
----------------------------------------------------
The Utah Jazz are on a roll thanks to Deron Williams and strong scoring depth. A visit from the potentially short-handed Milwaukee Bucks may not provide much of an obstacle. Williams looks to help the Jazz extend their winning streak to six by continuing their home domination of the Bucks on Monday night. Utah has won 13 of 16 after opening the season with consecutive lopsided losses. The current five-game winning streak is the second of this extended hot streak.
The Jazz, who have held opponents to an average of 91.4 points during their last five victories, last won six in a row in a nine-game run Jan. 20-Feb. 9. Williams, the team leader with 21.9 points and 9.9 assists per game, has been a major spark of late. The All-Star guard is shooting 58.7 percent over the last three games while averaging 27.0 points and 10.7 assists. He connected on 8 of 14 shots Sunday, finishing with 26 points to lead six Jazz players in double figures during a 109-97 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
“Our guys have played pretty well together and our bench has given us a tremendous lift to put us in a position to be able to win a lot of those games,” Coach Jerry Sloan said. “Those guys have given us a great deal of life to fight back, and it’s been fun.” The Jazz are now looking for a strong start to their season-high six-game homestand, and facing Milwaukee (6-10) might be an ideal way to accomplish that. They’ve won eight straight home meetings with the Bucks, holding them to an average of 89.1 points since a loss Oct. 30, 2001.
Utah kept that winning streak going with a 112-95 victory Jan. 16, and the Bucks will likely need another big performance from Brandon Jennings to end it. Jennings helped Milwaukee overcome four key absences by scoring a season-high 32 points in a 104-101 home win over Charlotte on Saturday, halting a five-game slide. The Bucks have stumbled to a 2-6 mark on the road. Jennings wasn’t very effective in Milwaukee’s last visit to Utah. The guard made 1 of 8 shots and finished with five points. He scored 23 in a 95-87 win in Milwaukee on March 12.
The Bucks may need to rely on Jennings heavily if Andrew Bogut (back spasms), Drew Gooden (plantar fasciitis), Corey Maggette (left ankle soreness) and Carlos Delfino (neck strain and concussion) continue to be out with injuries. Playing without Bogut and Gooden again would leave Milwaukee without its top rebounders at 10.9 and 7.5 per game, respectively. That would create favorable matchups for the Jazz, who will likely start forward Paul Millsap and center Al Jefferson. The duo combined for 25 points Sunday against the Clippers.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 7; O/U 177.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah -6.71
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--UTAH is 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 105.1, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 103.4, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 31-12 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.5, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 36-17 OVER (+17.8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 104.3, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 14-3 OVER (+10.6 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 105.2, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 16-2 OVER (+13.8 Units) after a game where they were called for 30 or more fouls over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 102.7, OPPONENT 106.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 11-32 against the 1rst half line (-24.3 Units) off a road win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 48.2, OPPONENT 49.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 2-14 against the 1rst half line (-13.4 Units) after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 45.6, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.8 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 49.0, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 54-31 UNDER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 50.5, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 62-40 UNDER (+18.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.9, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 21-7 UNDER (+13.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 45.0, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after one or more consecutive overs, a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG).
(32-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.7
The average score in these games was: Team 93.1, Opponent 99 (Total points scored = 192.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (52.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (140-90).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (UTAH) - playing on back-to-back days, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(43-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.6, Opponent 43.7 (Total first half points scored = 89.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (95-72).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games.
(66-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.0%, +36.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 50.7 (Average first half point differential = -1.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (120-79).
Brett Atkins
NFL PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE YEAR
40 DIME ARIZONA CARDINALS
Craig Davis
Monday Night Mismatch
40 Dime ARIZONA CARDINALS
Joel Tyson
NFC Linemakers Lament
40 DIME ARIZONA CARDINALS
Trace Adams
NFC West Dead Mortal Lock
1000♦ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Chuck O'Brien
15 DIME SF 49ers
Derek Mancini
25 Dimes SF 49ers
Anthony Redd
5th Ever NFL Play of my Career
100 DIME SF 49ers
fargo or ness anybody?
this guy has been pretty good, went 4 and 1 nfl this weekend
Scotty L's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both teams are suffering, especially on offense. It just seems that the San Francisco defense hasn’t totally went to pieces yet. If they can summon another decent performance, they should be able to keep the Cardinals offense from getting on track. The Cardinals defense is fraying at the edges. Look for an irritated 49ers team to be able to put a few drives together and edge the Cardinals for a cover. Take the 49ers plus one point.
this guy has been pretty good, went 4 and 1 nfl this weekend
Scotty L's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Both teams are suffering, especially on offense. It just seems that the San Francisco defense hasn’t totally went to pieces yet. If they can summon another decent performance, they should be able to keep the Cardinals offense from getting on track. The Cardinals defense is fraying at the edges. Look for an irritated 49ers team to be able to put a few drives together and edge the Cardinals for a cover. Take the 49ers plus one point.
INDIAN COWBOY
4 UNIT* FIU Golden Panthers
College Baskets: Florida International +10: Confirmed.
We like underdogs that can hang tough and do well and Florida International should be able to do that for us. I have Florida International as a top 200 team and they face a good Marshall team who is a top 150 team in my book. Therefore, I have this at about a 50 point power ranking differential. Florida International has done well this year as they are 4-1 and they have faced difficult competition in FSU who they lost to by 23 at home. This team also played a fairly good Chattanooga team and won by 21 points at home and now head on the road to face Marshall. Marshall comes off a tough loss to Louisville where they fell short by just 14 points to their credit. But, keep in mind, Marshall also played Chattanooga at home and lost to them where as Florida International did very well against them and blew them out at home. Now, granted, that doesn't mean anything necessarily, because anything can happen in basketball, but it does mean that Florida International has the potential to keep it close or win this game outright. Marshall also struggled against Jackson State who is outside the top 200 and beat them by just six points. I have Florida International being a decent dog today and likely falling within the double-digit cover. Note, that with the total at 140'ish or so, I like grabbing the 10 points as well. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and the Thundering Herd are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
4 UNIT* FIU Golden Panthers
College Baskets: Florida International +10: Confirmed.
We like underdogs that can hang tough and do well and Florida International should be able to do that for us. I have Florida International as a top 200 team and they face a good Marshall team who is a top 150 team in my book. Therefore, I have this at about a 50 point power ranking differential. Florida International has done well this year as they are 4-1 and they have faced difficult competition in FSU who they lost to by 23 at home. This team also played a fairly good Chattanooga team and won by 21 points at home and now head on the road to face Marshall. Marshall comes off a tough loss to Louisville where they fell short by just 14 points to their credit. But, keep in mind, Marshall also played Chattanooga at home and lost to them where as Florida International did very well against them and blew them out at home. Now, granted, that doesn't mean anything necessarily, because anything can happen in basketball, but it does mean that Florida International has the potential to keep it close or win this game outright. Marshall also struggled against Jackson State who is outside the top 200 and beat them by just six points. I have Florida International being a decent dog today and likely falling within the double-digit cover. Note, that with the total at 140'ish or so, I like grabbing the 10 points as well. The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and the Thundering Herd are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
