EXPERT: Matt FargoTITLE: 10* NFL MNF TOP PLAY REPORT (14-5 L19 MNF)REASON FOR PICK: This certainly isn’t the matchup the NFL or TV execs were hoping for when putting the schedule together as both of these teams are huge disappointments this season. San Francisco was a preseason favorite to win the NFC West and with a 3-7 record, it still is not out of it. The 49ers can pull to within a game of the Rams and Seahawks which are tied atop the division with 5-6 records. An argument can be made for Arizona as well since the records are the same but the 49ers simply possess the better.
Arizona is 2-2 at home but in realty, it should be 0-4. The win over the Saints was a fluke as the Cardinals were outgained by 164 total yards but won thanks to three defensive touchdowns. The win over the Raiders was lucky as Oakland missed a short field goal as time expired that would have won the game. Prior to outgaining the Chiefs last week by 30 yards, Arizona had been outgained in eight straight games, six of which came by 137 or more yards. The Cardinals are not only losing, but losing badly.
The 49ers have shown a flicker of life, winning three of their last five games after starting the season 0-5. Last week it was a rough game for the offense, especially quarterback Troy Smith. Smith threw for 552 yards in wins over the Broncos and Rams and now he faced a Cardinals defense that is ranked 29th in the NFL, allowing 396.8 ypg. It is a mixed bag of ineffectiveness as the Cardinals are ranked 29th in rushing defense and 28th in passing defense so if the 49ers are looking to achieve balance, this is the game to do it.
San Francisco is a middle of the pack defense, ranked 17th overall, 17th in passing defense and 14th in rushing defense. That is just fine here however seeing that the Cardinals are just as inept on offense as they are on defense as Arizona is dead last in the NFL in total offense. The Cardinals cannot establish a physical run game, which they thought would be in place, they have shown us no ability to make those needed third-down plays from and when they get in third-and-long situations they struggle with consistency.
Arizona is coming into this game with a five game losing streak so there is no momentum and no confidence. Even the man in charge is aware of this. “We are not really a confident team right now,” head coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “I think it's a natural human emotion when you've lost five in a row and you've lost some of the games the way we have. It's definitely something that plays into it. This game is about momentum. It's about confidence and we don't have a lot to base positive things on here lately.”
The 49ers fall into a solid contrarian situation based on the loss suffered against Tampa Bay last week. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, after the first month of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers themselves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a loss as a favorite and under head coach Mike Singletary, they are 10-2 ATS in their 12 games coming off a loss against the number. 10* San Francisco 49ers