Today's Picks by Natural Born Thriller
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">NFL</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">Monday, 11/9/2009</td> <td align="center">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center"> Denver Broncos (S: 1.0) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">8:35pm EST</td> <td align="center">Denver Broncos</td></tr></tbody></table>
0-3 yesterday.
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th class="bl" colspan="5" align="left">NFL</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#999999" height="1"> <td colspan="5" height="1">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#000066"> <th>Game Time</th> <th>Game</th> <th>Pick</th> <th>Bet</th> <th>Analysis</th> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">Monday, 11/9/2009</td> <td align="center">Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center"> Denver Broncos (S: 1.0) </td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">5</td> <td rowspan="2" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td align="center">8:35pm EST</td> <td align="center">Denver Broncos</td></tr></tbody></table>
0-3 yesterday.
FantasySportsGametime.com
Monday Football
NFL Football
100* Play Pittsburgh (-3) over Denver (TOP NFL PLAY)
Pittsburgh has won 4 consecutive games when playing on a Monday Night and they have also won 3 of the last 4 games vs. AFC West Division Opponents. Pittsburgh has won 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of November and they have also won 17 of the last 24 games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Monday Football
NFL Football
100* Play Pittsburgh (-3) over Denver (TOP NFL PLAY)
Pittsburgh has won 4 consecutive games when playing on a Monday Night and they have also won 3 of the last 4 games vs. AFC West Division Opponents. Pittsburgh has won 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of November and they have also won 17 of the last 24 games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points.
Black Widow
6* Steelers/Broncos ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on Pittsburgh -3(+105 at 5dimes)
The Steelers have won 4 straight games since losing back-to-back heartbreakers by 3 points to the Bears and Bengals on the road. They are hitting on all cylinders right now, and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for Denver as they come off a bye after beating Minnesota 27-17 last time out. Denver's undefeated run ended abruptly last week with a 7-30 road loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh plays a similar game to the Ravens, and they'll dominate every phase of this one just like Baltimore did. Denver has yet to face the adversity of coming off a loss, and we don't see them handling it well Monday, especially against the defending Super Bowl champions. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore held Denver to 200 yards of total offense last week. Pittsburgh has the same kind of ferocious defense the Ravens offer, and they'll give Kyle Orton and this Broncos' offense fits all game long while Big Ben and the Steelers' offense keeps pouring on the points. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
6* Steelers/Broncos ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on Pittsburgh -3(+105 at 5dimes)
The Steelers have won 4 straight games since losing back-to-back heartbreakers by 3 points to the Bears and Bengals on the road. They are hitting on all cylinders right now, and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for Denver as they come off a bye after beating Minnesota 27-17 last time out. Denver's undefeated run ended abruptly last week with a 7-30 road loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh plays a similar game to the Ravens, and they'll dominate every phase of this one just like Baltimore did. Denver has yet to face the adversity of coming off a loss, and we don't see them handling it well Monday, especially against the defending Super Bowl champions. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons. Baltimore held Denver to 200 yards of total offense last week. Pittsburgh has the same kind of ferocious defense the Ravens offer, and they'll give Kyle Orton and this Broncos' offense fits all game long while Big Ben and the Steelers' offense keeps pouring on the points. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 194 between the New Orleans Hornets @ the Los Angeles Clippers (Monday @ 10:30pm est). Note that Eric Gordon is doubtful for this game. I've been high on the Clippers this year and have put my 6 Unit Future on them for the Over 34.5 wins earlier this year. And, they have not let me down. After all, they are 3-4 and well on pace to go vear 34.5 wins. I hope they can stay healthy as Gordon and Griffin can hopefully be back soon to aid this team. The Clippers are a new beast this year because they are healthier and have their bigs back in Kaman and Thornton. This has helped their defense immensely and last year's injuries has improved their depth as role players took more of an active role in the team's offense. This team played Minnesota recently and won 93-90 as the game totaled 183 and I think that will be very similar to the Hornets game today. The Hornets do have Paul of course, but outside of that, this team has limited offensive options. They are a half court type of offense to be certain with players such as Okafor, Julian Wright and Devin Brown. With Gordon likely out for this game, I look for Baron Davis to get the ball to their respective bigs with Kaman, Camby and Al Thornton. The Under is 4-0 for the Hornets after a straight up loss of more than ten points and the Under is 7-1 in the Clippers last eight games as Underdogs.
Good luck,
IC
Good luck,
IC
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* N B A R oa d W arr ior of the W ee k on Phoenix Suns -2(-101 at 5dimes)
The Suns are 6-1 this season, which is impressive considering they have played 5 road games already where they are 4-1 away from home. This is a very generous line here Monday as the Suns travel to take on the 76ers as just a small road favorite. Phoenix is the superior team here, and they are having fun again playing their fast break style of basketball. Phoenix is averaging 109.7 points/game this season. The 76ers are 3-14 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996. Philly doesn't have the scorers to keep up with the Suns tonight. The 76ers are 0-8 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Steve Nash is running the show to perfection this year, averaging 17.9 points/game and 11.9 assists/contest. Take Phoenix and lay the points.
5* N B A R oa d W arr ior of the W ee k on Phoenix Suns -2(-101 at 5dimes)
The Suns are 6-1 this season, which is impressive considering they have played 5 road games already where they are 4-1 away from home. This is a very generous line here Monday as the Suns travel to take on the 76ers as just a small road favorite. Phoenix is the superior team here, and they are having fun again playing their fast break style of basketball. Phoenix is averaging 109.7 points/game this season. The 76ers are 3-14 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996. Philly doesn't have the scorers to keep up with the Suns tonight. The 76ers are 0-8 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Steve Nash is running the show to perfection this year, averaging 17.9 points/game and 11.9 assists/contest. Take Phoenix and lay the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Jazz/Knicks OVER 209.5(-110 at bookm)
This is a reasonably low total for a Knicks' home game, so we'll side with the OVER Monday when they host the Utah Jazz. Utah is a solid offensive team, averaging 101.5 points/game. But defensively, they have been sub-par this season in allowing 104.0 points/game. The Knicks have played in some shootouts at home this year where they average 106.0 points/game and allowing a ridiculous 113.2 points/contest. Utah is 17-3 OVER after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER 209.5 points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on T'Wolves/Warriors OVER 214.5(-110 at betus)
These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league squaring off Monday, and we'll take the OVER because of it. Minnesota is allowing 109.7 points/game on the road this season, and as bad as that number is, it's nothing compared to the Warriors. Golden State gives up 114.8 points/game this season, once again showing that they are the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are fun to watch because they always play in shootouts, and this will be another entertaining shootout Monday. The Warriors are 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 46-23 OVER (+20.7 Units) in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 23-9 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 214.5 points.
4* on Jazz/Knicks OVER 209.5(-110 at bookm)
This is a reasonably low total for a Knicks' home game, so we'll side with the OVER Monday when they host the Utah Jazz. Utah is a solid offensive team, averaging 101.5 points/game. But defensively, they have been sub-par this season in allowing 104.0 points/game. The Knicks have played in some shootouts at home this year where they average 106.0 points/game and allowing a ridiculous 113.2 points/contest. Utah is 17-3 OVER after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER 209.5 points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on T'Wolves/Warriors OVER 214.5(-110 at betus)
These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league squaring off Monday, and we'll take the OVER because of it. Minnesota is allowing 109.7 points/game on the road this season, and as bad as that number is, it's nothing compared to the Warriors. Golden State gives up 114.8 points/game this season, once again showing that they are the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are fun to watch because they always play in shootouts, and this will be another entertaining shootout Monday. The Warriors are 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 46-23 OVER (+20.7 Units) in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 23-9 in Warriors last 32 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 214.5 points.
Dominic Fazzini
Monday's play 15 Dime -- BRONCOS (plus points vs. Steelers)
BRONCOS
Denver QB Kyle Orton gets absolutely no respect, much like the Broncos as a whole. Yes, he isn't flashy or possess a rocket arm, but he does do one thing as well as any pro QB: He wins.
Orton is 27-13 as a NFL starter, including 18-2 at home. This year, he is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception, a Hail Mary before halftime of Denver's game against New England that was picked off by Randy Moss of all people.
The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense against the run, but the Broncos' running back combination of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter should be effective enough tonight to help set things up for the passing game. Plus, Pittsburgh is going to be without three starters on defense tonight.
When it comes to defense this year, however, no team is doing it better than Denver. The Broncos have the third-ranked run defense (86.1 yards per game), sixth-ranked pass defense (180.6 yards) and top-ranked overall defense for yardage and scoring (13.7 points per game allowed).
Denver is also third in the league in sacks with 23, and that doesn't bode well for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has been sacked 20 times already this season.
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games and as a road favorite. Denver, on the other hand, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home underdog. Take the Broncos to cover the points tonight.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Monday's play 15 Dime -- BRONCOS (plus points vs. Steelers)
BRONCOS
Denver QB Kyle Orton gets absolutely no respect, much like the Broncos as a whole. Yes, he isn't flashy or possess a rocket arm, but he does do one thing as well as any pro QB: He wins.
Orton is 27-13 as a NFL starter, including 18-2 at home. This year, he is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception, a Hail Mary before halftime of Denver's game against New England that was picked off by Randy Moss of all people.
The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense against the run, but the Broncos' running back combination of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter should be effective enough tonight to help set things up for the passing game. Plus, Pittsburgh is going to be without three starters on defense tonight.
When it comes to defense this year, however, no team is doing it better than Denver. The Broncos have the third-ranked run defense (86.1 yards per game), sixth-ranked pass defense (180.6 yards) and top-ranked overall defense for yardage and scoring (13.7 points per game allowed).
Denver is also third in the league in sacks with 23, and that doesn't bode well for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has been sacked 20 times already this season.
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games and as a road favorite. Denver, on the other hand, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home underdog. Take the Broncos to cover the points tonight.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
Bob Balfe 11/9
NBA Basketball
Raptors/Spurs Under 205
NFL Football
Pittsburgh/Denver Over 41
The Steelers have a major injury in each line of their defense. Kirschke is out on the D-Line. Timmons will be out at linebacker and Clark wont play at safety. Denver probably has the best group of receivers in the NFL and should be able to take advantage of the Steelers injuries. Big Ben will have his guy going on offense. Denver will be without McBean on their D-Line which should soften up a very good run defense. Both teams are excellent at stopping the run which will have both QB's throwing the ball a lot which is good for the Over. The X-Factor is Denver's Eddie Royal. If the Steelers kick it too him he could score points for Denver in just seconds. If they kick it away from him expect to see Denver with great starting field position. I do see Denver with the slight edge however the Over looks like the better wager. Let's cheer for points!
NBA Basketball
Raptors/Spurs Under 205
NFL Football
Pittsburgh/Denver Over 41
The Steelers have a major injury in each line of their defense. Kirschke is out on the D-Line. Timmons will be out at linebacker and Clark wont play at safety. Denver probably has the best group of receivers in the NFL and should be able to take advantage of the Steelers injuries. Big Ben will have his guy going on offense. Denver will be without McBean on their D-Line which should soften up a very good run defense. Both teams are excellent at stopping the run which will have both QB's throwing the ball a lot which is good for the Over. The X-Factor is Denver's Eddie Royal. If the Steelers kick it too him he could score points for Denver in just seconds. If they kick it away from him expect to see Denver with great starting field position. I do see Denver with the slight edge however the Over looks like the better wager. Let's cheer for points!
Steve Duemig
Monday's Winner
25 Dime Broncos
Yet another reverse line move in this Monday night matchup between the Steelers and the Bronco's. 68% of the public money is being bet on the Steelers, yet the line is moving down toward Denver. Wise guys have settled into Denver while the public is still doubtful that Denver is for real. The Steelers have been turning the ball over a little too much for my liking and they come into Denver with a minus turnover ratio. Denver on the other hand is not turning it over, especially Kyle Orton, who still has only one pick on the season and that was by Randy Moss on a half time Hail Mary. The Bronco's experienced secondary will play a huge part in this game as well as their pass rush against a very iffy Steeler offensive line. If they can force Big Ben to shorten his drops because of the pressure it will keep everything in front of them and will force the Steelers to play a style of offense that they are not comfortable in these days. Hard to believe that a 6-1 team playing at home is getting points in this game so we aren't gonna pass them up.
Paid and Confirmed by me.. Anyone See Chris Jordan
Monday's Winner
25 Dime Broncos
Yet another reverse line move in this Monday night matchup between the Steelers and the Bronco's. 68% of the public money is being bet on the Steelers, yet the line is moving down toward Denver. Wise guys have settled into Denver while the public is still doubtful that Denver is for real. The Steelers have been turning the ball over a little too much for my liking and they come into Denver with a minus turnover ratio. Denver on the other hand is not turning it over, especially Kyle Orton, who still has only one pick on the season and that was by Randy Moss on a half time Hail Mary. The Bronco's experienced secondary will play a huge part in this game as well as their pass rush against a very iffy Steeler offensive line. If they can force Big Ben to shorten his drops because of the pressure it will keep everything in front of them and will force the Steelers to play a style of offense that they are not comfortable in these days. Hard to believe that a 6-1 team playing at home is getting points in this game so we aren't gonna pass them up.
Paid and Confirmed by me.. Anyone See Chris Jordan
